Sony Open 2022

Finally....a full field and most of the big dogs are out. Early tourney and majority don't have much action at all yet. Playing usual 1st Round Leader and Outright Win. Keeping my eye on a few of the Korn Ferry guys who are up for good this year. Cameron Smith has played well here in the past but not wagering on him around 9/1 to 10/1 range quite yet.

Sony Open 1st Round Leader

Kevin Kisner 44/1

Billy Horschel 44/1

Matt Jones 55/1

Joel Dahmen 70/1

Brendan Steele 70/1

Keith Mitchell 85/1

Chad Ramey 110/1

Sam Ryder 160/1

Vaughn Taylor 200/1

Outright Win

Kevin Kisner 36/1

Billy Horschel 36/1

Matt Jones 50/1

Keith Mitchell 90/1

@fightingillini

 Kisner still in there 

Had a feeling it was a 2 man race after the 3rd round. Kisner gave a few shots away but it happens to them all. Matsuyama didn't have a great track record at this place but his form lately has been superb. Props to him! This was my first tournament since end of last year and wasn't filling chalk until I saw more of the field play.

Good to see some familiar faces around here. BOL to you this season!

Illini

good luck this year.

I thought your lineup to win all had a shot.

Picking the winner is so tough and basically involves eliminating most favorites if you are gonna spread out.  Thus tough to have Matsuyama Smith or Im.

Kisner gave it a run but Seems to me that the H2H plays are the better way to go.  At least that’s how I see it.

Ironic I did win this week but my thread “Australian Rules” spoke to how well the Australians have done in Hawaii but this week those were the plays I lost.  Fortunately I hit the others to pull a profit

Goid luck going forward.  You are 1 of the guys I look for here as your picks are solid 

It is super tough to hit an Outright Winner/1st Round Leader in golf. It is not the most logical wager. I could also counter it with there are not many wagers where you can hit 20/1, 30/1, 60/1, 80/1, etc on a more routine basis than golf. Most sports are in the -250 to +300 range. That range might appeal to me on other sports but not golf. I post all my plays and I will be the first to say I have gone tourneys where I have won 3-4 straight weeks and also gone months without hitting much of anything. Take the hot streaks, cold streaks and tourneys where I can hedge to break even/make smaller profits. At least for me over the last few years it has all balanced out in the end.

BOL to you as well this season! I am not a matchup person but I know you do well with it.

@fightingillini

I am the same way Im not a big gamblers I usually try and do about 300$ per event but I am happy with 100$ profit so I pick multiple winners per events usually 200$ pre tourney start then about 100$ live betting after each rd for the Sony Open I lost 230$ I only live betted after the first rd because all my golfers looked like they had no chance to win at the start of the 3rd rd. If you are cool with only winning like 100$ per event that your odds of winning jump drastically. But if you are trying to win thousands then its going to be very hard to win an Outright winner

We don't wager the same amount or even the same way with Outright Win. It isn't a knock at all, but I am not wagering to win $100 or a few hundred bucks at a time. I will sometimes hedge 2nd and 3rd round but majority of the time I don't hedge until the last round if I do. That is when it comes down to breaking even or winning a smaller amount for a certain tourney the way I wager on golf.

I have said it many times...I have a system and I ride the wave. It might get frustrating not to hit at times but I tend to wager longer odds. Long odds don't come in as often and I 100% realize that. The only thing I probably need to do is cut my 1st Round leader picks down a few. That being said it is very common to see a 50/1 to 125/1 lead the 1st round on a semi-routine basis. Each tourney is a bit different. Once you include the heavyweights I wager less guys. Win percentage is probably less but I love the tourneys where the big dogs are out.

BOL to you this season!