Anyone betting the pick one guy out of three wager type bets? William Hill offers this bet on almost every round of the tournament, and has tournament bets as well. Very good odds, usually each player is almost 2-1, sometimes 3-1. Been parlaying these bets, looking for a big payday. Only betting around 5 dollars a parlay, been close to hitting one of these bets. My strategy has been to generally take the better putter of the three, although when parlaying 6-9 matches, luck definitely is needed.
Euro and US golfers are being used in betting. I generally watch US golf, would like input/discussion on both. Any leans in the euro players, leave comments in the thread..
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Anyone betting the pick one guy out of three wager type bets? William Hill offers this bet on almost every round of the tournament, and has tournament bets as well. Very good odds, usually each player is almost 2-1, sometimes 3-1. Been parlaying these bets, looking for a big payday. Only betting around 5 dollars a parlay, been close to hitting one of these bets. My strategy has been to generally take the better putter of the three, although when parlaying 6-9 matches, luck definitely is needed.
Euro and US golfers are being used in betting. I generally watch US golf, would like input/discussion on both. Any leans in the euro players, leave comments in the thread..
Any golf handicapping relies on the following factors:
1. Understand the course. What are its key features. What specific traits are needed to excel at the course. Usually you think this is easy to understand but it aint. There is A LOT, to take form a course.
2. Understand the conditions of the event and the effect they will have on the course. Conditions can be assessed on a full tourney basis. And also on a roudn by round basis. The last tournament at Seaside showed how much the conditions matter. Basically all the guys that played at Seaside on the 2nd day, had a huge disadvantage moving on.
3. Understand the golfers. What are their key attributes and how they are expected to perform for that course and conditions.
Once you know that, you move on...
Your strategy of betting the best putter, will not work blindly on the long run. Putting is actually the most overrated stat in golf. But for the easier courses it becomes much more important.
To put an example on my point. Going with your strategy, you should bet Brendon Todd and Denny McCarthy all the time since they are without a doubt two of the best putters in the game. But playing Todd in very long courses is burning money. No matter how good his putting is, he will be needing to hit 200yd+ approaches, while other guys will be hitting 150+. This affects the expected proximity to the hole, where on average Todd will have 30-40 footers, while the other guys will have 20 footers. It doesnt matter how much better he is putting, A shit putter like Matsuyama has a higher chance of sinking a 20 footer, than the chance that Todd has of sinking a 30 footer.
But on short courses that require accuracy (accuracy requirement - or courses that penalize missing the fairways- tends to limit the bombers advantage), Brendon Todd is a very good bet.
So, all in all, if Todd played Bryson and you get +120 on Todd. Maybe in Mayakoba Todd can be a very good bet. But if they played in Augusta not even +250 would be a good bet.
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Any golf handicapping relies on the following factors:
1. Understand the course. What are its key features. What specific traits are needed to excel at the course. Usually you think this is easy to understand but it aint. There is A LOT, to take form a course.
2. Understand the conditions of the event and the effect they will have on the course. Conditions can be assessed on a full tourney basis. And also on a roudn by round basis. The last tournament at Seaside showed how much the conditions matter. Basically all the guys that played at Seaside on the 2nd day, had a huge disadvantage moving on.
3. Understand the golfers. What are their key attributes and how they are expected to perform for that course and conditions.
Once you know that, you move on...
Your strategy of betting the best putter, will not work blindly on the long run. Putting is actually the most overrated stat in golf. But for the easier courses it becomes much more important.
To put an example on my point. Going with your strategy, you should bet Brendon Todd and Denny McCarthy all the time since they are without a doubt two of the best putters in the game. But playing Todd in very long courses is burning money. No matter how good his putting is, he will be needing to hit 200yd+ approaches, while other guys will be hitting 150+. This affects the expected proximity to the hole, where on average Todd will have 30-40 footers, while the other guys will have 20 footers. It doesnt matter how much better he is putting, A shit putter like Matsuyama has a higher chance of sinking a 20 footer, than the chance that Todd has of sinking a 30 footer.
But on short courses that require accuracy (accuracy requirement - or courses that penalize missing the fairways- tends to limit the bombers advantage), Brendon Todd is a very good bet.
So, all in all, if Todd played Bryson and you get +120 on Todd. Maybe in Mayakoba Todd can be a very good bet. But if they played in Augusta not even +250 would be a good bet.
Understand your points, and duly noted. When I'm picking the one guy out of three, if there is a deciding factor to choose a player, I'm going to go with the better putter.
Anyhow, just going thru tourney bets for dubai, like the tourney bet picks a little bit more than round bet picks, if your player makes the cut and the others don't.. well, auto winner.
Dubai tourney picks
Matthew Jordan +180 (over Rasmus Hojgaard/Eddie Pepperell)
Sami Valimaki +175 (over Adri Armaus/Danny Willett)
Adrian Otaegui +175 (over Callum Shinkwin/Tom Lewis)
Thomas Detry +188 (over Robert Macintyre/Martin Kaymer)
Aaron Rai +210 (over Bernd Wiesberger/Matt Wallace)
Andy Sullivan +163 (over Thomas Pieters/Marcus Armitage)
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Understand your points, and duly noted. When I'm picking the one guy out of three, if there is a deciding factor to choose a player, I'm going to go with the better putter.
Anyhow, just going thru tourney bets for dubai, like the tourney bet picks a little bit more than round bet picks, if your player makes the cut and the others don't.. well, auto winner.
Dubai tourney picks
Matthew Jordan +180 (over Rasmus Hojgaard/Eddie Pepperell)
Sami Valimaki +175 (over Adri Armaus/Danny Willett)
Adrian Otaegui +175 (over Callum Shinkwin/Tom Lewis)
Thomas Detry +188 (over Robert Macintyre/Martin Kaymer)
Aaron Rai +210 (over Bernd Wiesberger/Matt Wallace)
Andy Sullivan +163 (over Thomas Pieters/Marcus Armitage)
To be honest I don´t think there is value in any of your picks other than Niemann and Ortiz. But anyways I wish you the best of luck and I will be rooting for those 80k!.
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Holy shit are those some nice odds!!
To be honest I don´t think there is value in any of your picks other than Niemann and Ortiz. But anyways I wish you the best of luck and I will be rooting for those 80k!.
Everyone likes to wager in different areas. Not my cup of tea, but BOL to you!
Ever thought of wagering more and cutting out some of the action?
My biggest wagers are on First Round Leaders for the most part. There is just so much to factor into golf compared to other sports. 4 days of action, random injury, weather changes, one bad hole, one bad round, etc. I think if you still wagered $5, $10, etc a parlay and cut the risk/payouts down you will have a lot more success. More curious, why do you do 6-10 in a parlay? Ever thought of doing 2-4 at max and see if more constant payout? Like you said, you can find some good odds and still be real nice payouts if hit.
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Everyone likes to wager in different areas. Not my cup of tea, but BOL to you!
Ever thought of wagering more and cutting out some of the action?
My biggest wagers are on First Round Leaders for the most part. There is just so much to factor into golf compared to other sports. 4 days of action, random injury, weather changes, one bad hole, one bad round, etc. I think if you still wagered $5, $10, etc a parlay and cut the risk/payouts down you will have a lot more success. More curious, why do you do 6-10 in a parlay? Ever thought of doing 2-4 at max and see if more constant payout? Like you said, you can find some good odds and still be real nice payouts if hit.
I agree totally with this post. I think you should split up your 8 plays into 2 groups of 4. Both of those would still payout a nice return and you only need to hit 1 of the 2 to still see a profit. If you could hit around 40% for the long term (depending just what odds that you get on a 4 way parlay) you would still be profitable. Worth a shot I would think, unless you really just want to shoot for the HUGE payday.
Best of luck!
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@fightingillini
I agree totally with this post. I think you should split up your 8 plays into 2 groups of 4. Both of those would still payout a nice return and you only need to hit 1 of the 2 to still see a profit. If you could hit around 40% for the long term (depending just what odds that you get on a 4 way parlay) you would still be profitable. Worth a shot I would think, unless you really just want to shoot for the HUGE payday.
I see value in these 3ball bets.. most bets will have one guy that generally is not going to play well, leaving picking one guy out of two. I've been pretty close to hitting one of these parlays, missing by one or two every tourney on either the tourney or daily bets. Obviously the ball is going to roll funny sometimes, but generally these guys play to their strengths most of the time. Day to day performance is somewhat predictable, by sunday, I tend to get more matches right based on which players are doing better (with an emphasis on putting).
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I see value in these 3ball bets.. most bets will have one guy that generally is not going to play well, leaving picking one guy out of two. I've been pretty close to hitting one of these parlays, missing by one or two every tourney on either the tourney or daily bets. Obviously the ball is going to roll funny sometimes, but generally these guys play to their strengths most of the time. Day to day performance is somewhat predictable, by sunday, I tend to get more matches right based on which players are doing better (with an emphasis on putting).
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