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US Open picks

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Posted: #1
I'll have more tomorrow, but I have 4 right out of the gate.  I have some pretty strong feelings about how some of these guys will deal with this course.  So I knew I was automatically betting against some guys, and betting on some guys.

Early picks.

Day -135 v Spieth

I've known for a while I'm betting this one.  I think Jordan can have his meltdowns occasionally, and I think Day is a little more dialed in right now.  I like Day to handle adversity more over 4 days than Jordan

Phil -110 v Fowler

I was excited to see this matchup.  Fowler was a guy I wanted to bet against, and Phil was a guy I've wanted to bet on here.  Phil has been getting ready for this tourney, and I like his ability to make crazy shots around the green.  Ricky has missed the cut the last 2 tourneys, and let's not forget how awful he was in the last major.

Kuchar -130 v Bubba

Here's another one where I wanted to bet against Bubba, and bet on Kuchar.  I like Kuchar's patience and consistency.  He's been playing great lately, and I think he's mental toughness will prove to be valuable.  Speaking of mental toughness...Bubba doesn't have very much.  I can see him getting really frustrated and then the wheels come off.

Furyk -110 v Zach Johnson

The same reasons I like Kuchar is why I like Furyk this week.  He's just steady.  Doesn't hit the ball a mile, doesn't do incredible things...just hits the ball into the fairway, hits the ball to the green and makes his putts when he needs too.

 
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Posted: #2
I like them all. Good luck this week 
 
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Posted: #3
Kuchar over Bubba is my PLAY of the TOURNAMENT !!


 
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Posted: #4
Few more plays

Westwood v Casey

Westwood is in good form, coming on strong, and just loves to play good in the big tournaments.  Casey has been shaky...Mc's in 2 out of the last 4.

Steele v Moore

Moore has missed the cut 3 out of 4 tourney.  Steele has made the cut the last 4 times.

Goosen v Luke Donald

Goosen has 3 consecutive top 15's, and has 1 MC the last 7 US Opens.  Donald has missed the cut 4 out of the last 7 US Opens.  Donald has a 68th, Cut and 71st the last 3 tourneys.

Also, a 4 guy parlay to all make the cut.

Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar

Pays +115
 
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Posted: #5
like about all ex Stenson and Furyk. agree with SkySky on "Kooch". played the "Rickie Tickie" Fowler "make the cut?" NO prop +210
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

like about all ex Stenson and Furyk. agree with SkySky on "Kooch". played the "Rickie Tickie" Fowler "make the cut?" NO prop +210

Thinking that Stenson and Furyk's lack of length off the tee won't be a big deal, and that their solid iron play will more than make up for it.  I also think they don't get too rattled if they have a bad hole, and I like that they have been on plenty of tough courses in tough spots.  I think these guys can handle adversity.
 
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Posted: #7
Put the podcasts up tonight (The Golf Betting Guys).  We did a podcast on our US Open golf bets, and then we did a special podcast where we did a Fantasy Football Golf draft for the US Open.  We had to draft a QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, FLEX, K, DEF.  

QB, RBs, WRs can be any golfer.  The TE had to be out of the FedEx top 25 rankings...FLEX, K, DEF had to be out of the FedEx top 75 rankings.  Turned out to be a lot of fun.  After we did it we wished we would've had more guys involved, and we will probably get a couple more guys to participate next time we do this (hopefully some covers guys we can skype in...let me know if you're interested).

Would really like feedback on these from some of you golf guys if you have a chance.  What we are doing right, wrong...if you laughed, yawned...whatever ya think.  
 
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Posted: #8
I like your plays. I played Mickelson -115 over Fowler and Matsuyama -120 over Fowler. I'm shocked with the line movement towards Fowler. Currently Phil is +110 and Matsyama is +100 in the same match ups...
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by RBTrojan:

I like your plays. I played Mickelson -115 over Fowler and Matsuyama -120 over Fowler. I'm shocked with the line movement towards Fowler. Currently Phil is +110 and Matsyama is +100 in the same match ups...


Ya THAT kind of gave me a "WTF?" too with Rickie's recent record BUT going AGAINST Fowler is probably NO where NEAR any "lock" with the nature of these golfer "pampered poodles" who can do damn ANYTHING in a freeking tourney or even round to round no matter WHAT their recent performances
 
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Posted: #10
Rickie is a darling.  Looks so cute and handsome in his matching clothes...funny on snapchat...good looking...not a surprise at all people bet on him while ignoring the funk he's been in.  Meanwhile, Phil has been preparing himself for this tourney.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Rickie is a darling.  Looks so cute and handsome in his matching clothes...funny on snapchat...good looking...not a surprise at all people bet on him while ignoring the funk he's been in.  Meanwhile, Phil has been preparing himself for this tourney.

I did the same  got phil +105 vs fowler,
Did the kuchar one but i had to pay -140 over bubba
I took DJ over Day +125   (not backing day this tourney)


 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Razorfins:


I did the same  got phil +105 vs fowler,
Did the kuchar one but i had to pay -140 over bubba
I took DJ over Day +125   (not backing day this tourney)




you want un-freeking believable, "Kooch" was -110 over Bubba 1st round. has since gone to -120
 
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Posted: #13
Do not fade Bubba. He is going to make a championship run . Heard it here first (perhaps) 
 
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Posted: #14
@LeRinkRat- I agree with your bet on Rickie not making the cut but cannot pull the trigger on it...

@Alangrrbs- I would normally agree with you on the Fowler idea of being overbet but he seems to be highly favored with the younger audience and the ladies... I doubt they are the one making the line move the way it has...

I agree with Master MG regarding Bubba this week. I am not going to bet on him but I certainly cannot fade him either. He is way too creative and I think he finds a test like this enjoyable... He played really well last time they were at Oakmont.

For those betting on Jason Day... He reportedly has been sick this week. Normally that would not bother me, but this is not a normal week. I think everyone has to be 100% mentally ready for this week and dealing with whatever ailment he has cannot be beneficial.

I am really looking forward to this US Open... especially after last year's event. Best of luck everyone!


 
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Posted: #15
You're welcome Spanimal.    

Hope you were on board this week 
 
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Posted: #16
Excellent job. Thank you
 
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Posted: #17
great work!  I played 1.25 units per pick....great rebound.  I think we need a major every week.  your picks have been spot on for those.

question....I thought that if both players miss the cut, the bet is a push....it seemed as if my book was doing that the last month or so....

for the open, they did not.   I lost out on the goosen bet,  and got paid on the mickelson bet, for a net loss of fees.

what do your books do on missed cut bets.  thanks...spanimal
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Dr-Spanimal:

great work!  I played 1.25 units per pick....great rebound.  I think we need a major every week.  your picks have been spot on for those.

question....I thought that if both players miss the cut, the bet is a push....it seemed as if my book was doing that the last month or so....

for the open, they did not.   I lost out on the goosen bet,  and got paid on the mickelson bet, for a net loss of fees.

what do your books do on missed cut bets.  thanks...spanimal


all the Las Vegas books STILL rate the LOWER SCORE as the WINNER in match play bets where BOTH miss the cut like Mickelson [+7] vs Fowler [+11] . I had a really WEIRD five player "groups" win also with Mickelson as his +[7] was the low finish of the other four who ALL also missed the cut
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

like about all ex Stenson and Furyk. agree with SkySky on "Kooch". played the "Rickie Tickie" Fowler "make the cut?" NO prop +210


WOW!!! I was sure WRONG about "The Hawk". HELL of a FINISH final round to get tied for 2nd. looks like "He's BACK!!!"
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Dr-Spanimal:

great work!  I played 1.25 units per pick....great rebound.  I think we need a major every week.  your picks have been spot on for those.

question....I thought that if both players miss the cut, the bet is a push....it seemed as if my book was doing that the last month or so....

for the open, they did not.   I lost out on the goosen bet,  and got paid on the mickelson bet, for a net loss of fees.

what do your books do on missed cut bets.  thanks...spanimal

LeRink is right about that.  If they graded Miss Cuts as all equal, they are doing it wrong.  I'd look close at the rules for that sports book to get clarification.
 
 
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Posted: #21
great....that takes care of that...I stopped watching "the bet" as bradly was well ahead but both were going to miss the cut.  thankfully bradely stunk up the last 3 holes he had on Saturday morning...I think he went plus 3....with out that we would have been a big loser...I bet 2.5 units on that bet!!!!!

thanks for the clarification.....spanimal
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