Waste Management

Last week very bad

2.5 - 4.5     -2.4 units 

YTD 10.5 wins  10 losses

-0.42 units

4 plays

Rahm -160 v Cantlay

cantlay 1st time over this track is a huge negative. Rahm loves this course and has played forever (ASU alumni).
Since finishing 5th here as an amateur in 2015 never worse than 16th and always in the mix. Cantlay 1st time over the track is a negative for Cantlay. Rahm since finishing 5th as an amateur here in 2015 finished in order forward16/11/10/9/13 Well rested is just the better player and a true gamer.

Bubba +105 v Louie O

Bubba always plays well here and seems to be in good form as Last week finished 2nd in Saudi Arabia.
Bubba has made 13/15 cuts here with 5 Top 5 and 10 Top 25 here.
Louie had to W/D with a bad back after rd1 at RSM in November. Can't be too fit as you can't practice with a bad back.

Putnam +105 v Wise

Putnam played great last week and was tied for lead after rd3 before fading to T9 but seems to be in good form with a 14 and 27 finish before that. Putnam finished 7th here last year which was a big improvement over his 1st 2x here where he MC
Wise doesn't look great on paper with a MC 2 weeks back after 2 months off and played here 2x finishing 66 last year and MC year before
Not sure why Wise is -125but I'll bite in Putnam +105

Mitchell -115 v Noreen
I lost my bet last week against Mitchell who was pretty good finishing T12. Recent form before that was good MC/7/12 so has 3 Top 12 last 4 events. 3x here has a MC/16/73
Noren has been bad.
39/MC/MC/45 last 4 starts
Played here 2x several years ago finished 44/21

 good luck all!!

thanks jmittseff.  Back at ya

3 Added plays
Top Australian Scott +140
Top Asian Matsuyama +100
Top So African Louie +100

***BUYING OUT OF PUTNAM v WISE***

one concern I did have with Putnam was that he competed hard for the win and faded Sunday.  Could have a bit of a hangover/bounce this week

But Jmittseth post indicated his reasons for liking Wise this week and it gave me pause to do further research

So although I bit at the plus money with Putnam, upon doing further research I’m gonna buy out of the Putnam play and just eat vig IF Putnam beats Wise

Wise YTD strokes gained stats far superior to Putnam.

Tee2Green Wise +1.16 Putnam +.35

OffTheTee Wise+.34 Putnam -.19

TotalStrokesgained Wise +1.42Putnam +.73

Added play

Rahm +125 Top European

aside from Hovland not much to worry about.  Maybe Fitzpatrick lesser worry is Power and after that a bunch of guys that don’t worry me.

since Rahm is -190 v Hovland I’ll roll the dice that if he beats Hovland he beats the others too and I’ll take the +125

Damn it it didn’t post so I kept hitting sunmit

sorry

Round 3. Merritt -115 v Hoffman

Hoffman continues to suffer from back problems. Last week withdrawal at Pebble after RD1 when shot a 70 (not bad)

This week Hoffman struggling but his putting is keeping him in it.  Merritt leads Hoffman by 1 stroke through 2 rounds but it would be 4 strokes more if not for putting

Fairways
Hoffman 35.71%
Merritt 50%

Greens
Hoffman 63.89%
Merritt 77.78%

Putting
Hoffman +3.72
Merritt -0.42

No real confidence in Merritt although he was 4th at Pebble !
What scares me is his course history here is lousy
MC the past 2 years and before that his finishes here were 24/MC/53/MC

It’s a bet against Hoffman.
Last week my rd4 bet against Van Pelt was spot on but I was worried I had bet on a guy I didn’t trust (Kodaira) and I said I just hope Kodaira doesn’t stink but he did and although Van Pelt was over par, I lost by 1.

Merritt is the guy with better stats this week and doesn’t have a bad back.
Charley not only withdrew last week after rd1 but had pulled out of several events in the prior 2 months.
Fact that he is hitting only 35% fairways and 63% greens means he isn’t right still

good luck

Round 3. Merritt -115 v Hoffman

Hoffman continues to suffer from back problems. Last week withdrawal at Pebble after RD1 when shot a 70 (not bad)

This week Hoffman struggling but his putting is keeping him in it.  Merritt leads Hoffman by 1 stroke through 2 rounds but it would be 4 strokes more if not for putting

Fairways
Hoffman 35.71%
Merritt 50%

Greens
Hoffman 63.89%
Merritt 77.78%

Putting
Hoffman +3.72
Merritt -0.42

No real confidence in Merritt although he was 4th at Pebble !
What scares me is his course history here is lousy
MC the past 2 years and before that his finishes here were 24/MC/53/MC

It’s a bet against Hoffman.
Last week my rd4 bet against Van Pelt was spot on but I was worried I had bet on a guy I didn’t trust (Kodaira) and I said I just hope Kodaira doesn’t stink but he did and although Van Pelt was over par, I lost by 1.

Merritt is the guy with better stats this week and doesn’t have a bad back.
Charley not only withdrew last week after rd1 but had pulled out of several events in the prior 2 months.
Fact that he is hitting only 35% fairways and 63% greens means he isn’t right still

good luck

Round 3. Merritt -115 v Hoffman

Hoffman continues to suffer from back problems. Last week withdrawal at Pebble after RD1 when shot a 70 (not bad)

This week Hoffman struggling but his putting is keeping him in it.  Merritt leads Hoffman by 1 stroke through 2 rounds but it would be 4 strokes more if not for putting

Fairways
Hoffman 35.71%
Merritt 50%

Greens
Hoffman 63.89%
Merritt 77.78%

Putting
Hoffman +3.72
Merritt -0.42

No real confidence in Merritt although he was 4th at Pebble !
What scares me is his course history here is lousy
MC the past 2 years and before that his finishes here were 24/MC/53/MC

It’s a bet against Hoffman.
Last week my rd4 bet against Van Pelt was spot on but I was worried I had bet on a guy I didn’t trust (Kodaira) and I said I just hope Kodaira doesn’t stink but he did and although Van Pelt was over par, I lost by 1.

Merritt is the guy with better stats this week and doesn’t have a bad back.
Charley not only withdrew last week after rd1 but had pulled out of several events in the prior 2 months.
Fact that he is hitting only 35% fairways and 63% greens means he isn’t right still

good luck

Round 3. Merritt -115 v Hoffman

Hoffman continues to suffer from back problems. Last week withdrawal at Pebble after RD1 when shot a 70 (not bad)

This week Hoffman struggling but his putting is keeping him in it.  Merritt leads Hoffman by 1 stroke through 2 rounds but it would be 4 strokes more if not for putting

Fairways
Hoffman 35.71%
Merritt 50%

Greens
Hoffman 63.89%
Merritt 77.78%

Putting
Hoffman +3.72
Merritt -0.42

No real confidence in Merritt although he was 4th at Pebble !
What scares me is his course history here is lousy
MC the past 2 years and before that his finishes here were 24/MC/53/MC

It’s a bet against Hoffman.
Last week my rd4 bet against Van Pelt was spot on but I was worried I had bet on a guy I didn’t trust (Kodaira) and I said I just hope Kodaira doesn’t stink but he did and although Van Pelt was over par, I lost by 1.

Merritt is the guy with better stats this week and doesn’t have a bad back.
Charley not only withdrew last week after rd1 but had pulled out of several events in the prior 2 months.
Fact that he is hitting only 35% fairways and 63% greens means he isn’t right still

good luck

@sacker17

 Merritt over Hoffman......

BEAUTIFUL........

well done

Thanks

@Nebr-44
 
Thanks.  Glad you hit it too.

It was over early with Hoffman +3 right out of the gate through 2 holes.

Merritt a winner by 11 strokes.  Too bad we don’t win extra for that

Tough to play 3 days in a row with a bad back.

Maybe it was meant to be with my post appearing multiple times?

Hope they give us a Charley Sunday line but if they do after Charley’s +8 today it’ll likely be way too high

good luck tom

No Hoff Sunday lines

Hopefully he plays next week

Round 4

Watson -105 v Horschel

Watson course history is tremendous.
Last 11 years 5 Top 5s and 7 Top 15s
Last 3 years 2 Top 4 and
Last 11 years 9 Top 29

Last week Bubba was 2nd on European Tour in UAE

Horschel course history nowhere near as good as Bubba. From last year back he has finishes of 53/9/39/43/24/24/30/MC/11

This week both hitting greens about the same at 78-79% but Horschel beating Bubba in putting by +4.53 to -0.13.

he needs to as Bubba is +2.37 strokes gained per round 

That's 1.5 strokes per round. Should revert to mean so while Horschel is a bit better putter it's not 1.5 strokes.

Horschel is only +.73 strokes gained Tee to Green per round v Bubba +2.37 

strokes gained Off the Tee Bubba also edge

Yesterday Horschel made a 74' putt and a 49' putt. Bubba a 37' putt.
Just think that the lean must go to Bubba

Slight mistake 

strokes gained Off Tee Horschel better be at +1.19 v Bubba +.70

what I meant to write was strokes gained approaching green Bubba huge edge at +1.99 per round to Horschel -.78

so that is the key and why they’re even.

its Horschel’s putting that’s keeping him tied with Bubba as he is beating Bubba by 4.65 strokes putting through 3 rounds

Sorry about the UNwise talk. 

No issue at all.  
i appreciate the response 
There were solid  reasons to cover the bet and I had a feeling Putnam would “bounce” anyway after tough week competing at top of Pebble, and he did “bounce” as he was better than Wise but also MC

Saved my week with

Top Australian (Scott +140)

Top Asian (Matsuyama +100)

Top South African (Louie +100) 

But could’ve been a good week for me except for Noren off lousy form who played great and beat me out of 2 bets (Rahm +125 Top European and Mitchell -115)

final tally +0.45 units 

Rahm v Cantlay -1.6

mitchell v Noren -1.15

Putnam v Wise hedge out -0.2

Bubba v. Louie +1.05

top Australian Scott +140

Top South African Louie +100

Top Asian Matsuyama +100

Top European Rahm -100

merritt v Hoffman rd3 +100

bubba v Horschel rd4 -105

NET +0.45 units (5 wins 4 losses)

Correction 

Bubba - Louie was a push not a win as Louie birdied 18

final weekly tally

-0.60 units 

4-4-1