2019/20 Season: 25-20-2 (+7.59U)
Waste Management Phoenix Open 72-Hole Matchups:
Byeong Hun An (-119) over Brian Harman - 2U
- I see this as a huge advantage for An, as driving distance is a key stat this week to be able to carry the bunkers and have wedges in. While Harman's results aren't terrible here, his lowest finish is 24th in 6 career starts. An has gone 6-23-20 in three appearances and TPC Scottsdale favors his game much more than Harman's.
Brendan Steele (+119) over Vaughn Taylor - 1U
- This line doesn't really make sense. While Steele doesn't fit the 'bomber' mold, he has a very solid history here. Prior to his first MC last year, he has four top 6's and two other top 20's in his 9 starts. Taylor has had mixed results, but I see no reason why he should be favored in the -140 range.
Bubba Watson (+103) over Tony Finau - 1U
- Pretty even matchup on paper, but past results at TPC Scottsdale cannot be ignored. Finau has missed the cut in his last 4 starts here, while Bubba has only missed one in his last 11 appearances. That stretch includes four top-5's. Maybe just a case of the course not fitting Finau's eye. Also a track where you have to go low to win, and Tony often struggles to make putts.
Matthew Wolff (-112) over Cameron Smith - 0.5U
- Wolff is 2nd on Tour in Strokes Gained off the tee this year (+1.09) and an underrated putter as well (+0.41 SGP). He should feed off the raucous crowd and I expect him to be in contention. Smith is a very good putter (+1.14), which downgraded this to only a 0.5 unit play. However, he is below average off the tee (-0.07).
Daniel Berger (+108) over Russell Knox - 0.5U
- Both have been feast or famine here, but Knox is more of a grinder who I like backing on tough tracks in windy conditions. I feel over the course of 4 rounds, Berger's length will give him more makeable birdie looks and as long as his putter is decent, he should finish on top here.
GL
66-1 Wolfe.
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