Whaddup Z!!!! Hope you get on track this week sir!!!
Careful with laying too much juice on some of those matchups. If you bet $100 per bet with Thomas-Rahm, Hatton-Wallace, and Fleetwood-Sergio that means you have $460 at stake. Even if you go 2-1, you're only profiting around $50. If you go 1-2, you're losing around $200. The math isn't in your favor.
Also, I would say the research doesn't support making those bets on the favorites. Here's a bit of handicapping I did on these matchups for you to play devils advocate...
Thomas ov Rahm
Rahm's worst finish in the last three months is 10th, and he has a 3rd place finish here two years ago. Thomas has two finishes in his last 5 tournaments outside the top 10. Not saying Rahm is better, but it's not worth -150.
Hatton -160 ov Wallace
Hatton has two great finishes here, but this year he hasn't been good. Missed the cut in 2 out of the last 4 tournaments including a really bad performance at the Genesis where he wasn't even close to making the cut. Wallace missed the cut at the Saudi Arabia tournament, but before that had 5 top 18 performances, and the last 2 tournaments they've played in together, Wallace has finished ahead of him.
Fleetwood ov Sergio
I'm betting Sergio this week in this matchup just because of the value. Everyone remembers the Sergio meltdown, but befoer that his finishes on the Euro Tour were 3rd, 6th, 9th, 2nd, 1st. He had a terrible first round last week, but fought back, made the cut and shot par or under in the last 3 rounds. He's played here twice and finished 12th and 7th, where Tommy Fleetwood has finished 2nd and 14th here, but has not been sharp recently. 42nd, 16th, 45th, 28th in his last 4 tournaments.
I'm not making the case that all these matchups will lose, I'm just making the case that they aren't worth laying all that juice. You may go 3-0 this week, but long term it's not a winning strategy.
I'll also play devils advocate on the Daniel Berger play...
When guys come back from an injury, they usually have one good week on their initial comeback. Adrenalin, excitement, etc. Then they fall back to earth. Berger had a very serious injury for his golf swing, and it's going to take him a long time to adjust. He might not ever regain his form before the injury. His first tournament back, he was great, but in the two since then he missed the cut in two straight. Laying -155 is not a good idea with a guy coming off an injury.
One of my personal rules is never get involved with multiple bets involving the same person, but doing it twice at -155 is super super risky. If Berger is bad again, you're at risk for big losses going 0-2. If he only beats one of them you still lose money. So if you're betting $155 on each bet to win $100 you're betting $310 to win $200 on a guy coming off a brutal injury who's missed the cut in two straight tournaments. It's not good value.
I hope this helps a bit... keep posting in here... Hope you win a ton this week!!!
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