2-1 at Rocket Mortgage, now 42-36-2 (+6.63 Units) for the 2019/20 season.
Workday Charity Open 72-Hole Tournament Matchups
Scott Stallings (+102) over Jason Kokrak - 2 units
- Bit of a fade on Kokrak here, who came back with a 3rd at Colonial, but missed the cut at both Harbor Town and The Travelers. His track record at Muirfield Village does not bode well, with 4 missed cuts, a 35th, and a 62nd in 6 career starts. He has an average of -1.48 true strokes gained in those 16 rounds. Stallings hasn't been spectacular since the return but has made the cut in all 3 starts, including a 6th at The Travelers. He has gained almost a shot on the field here over the years, with +0.99 true strokes gained across 22 rounds at Muirfield. I like the plus money price this week.
Chris Kirk (-102) over Brandt Snedeker - 1.5 units
- Kirk is playing some quietly good golf right now, posting a win on the Korn Ferry Tour 3 weeks ago and getting into contention last week at the Rocket Mortgage before fading with a 73 on Sunday. He's been kind of feast or famine at Muirfield Village but did finish 4th back in 2014. With Snedeker, you have to think the only reason he is teeing it up this week is due to his sponsorship with Workday. He has not played in 'The Memorial' since 2013 and the historical results may point to why. His 3 starts way back produced 2 missed cuts and a withdraw. To turn down an invitation from Jack must mean the course does not fit his eye. Pretty good value on Kirk here at a near pick-em.
Matthew Wolff (+104) over Jason Day - 1 unit
- Got burned going against Wolff last week as he clearly found it before struggling out of the gate on Sunday. I like to ride players who had a close call the week prior to get back into contention the following week. Day has been pretty steady at Muirfield Village over the years, but has not finished inside the Top 10. He has been spinning his tires since the Tour resumed, with 3 missed cuts and a 46th at The Travelers. Wrong player favored here.
Matt Wallace (+112) over Ryan Palmer - 1 unit
- Similar reasoning for the play against Snedeker. Palmer's last start here was a missed cut in 2011 and has a true strokes gained of -0.79 over 14 career rounds - so clearly not his favorite stop on Tour. This will be Wallace's first time teeing it up at Muirfield Village but he comes in off a 12th at the Rocket Mortgage and I feel it should suit his game fairly well. Not quite sure why Palmer is laying that much juice, so I'll gladly take the dog odds on Wallace.
Bubba Watson (-124) over Scottie Sheffler - 0.5 units
- Small steam chase play on Bubba, as this line has flipped since the matchups were posted Tuesday. Bubba has been above average here, with +1.22 true strokes gained over 44 rounds including a 3rd and 6th in the last 6 years. Scheffler comes in off back to back missed cuts and clearly isn't in the form he was early in the season.
Good Luck 
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