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Hey Van . . . I've always enjoyed your insight into major tournaments and soccer in general, thanks for taking the time to make your opinions and views available, I always come away with more knowledge. Cheers |
vanzack | 799 |
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Here is the final bit from SCOTUS Blog, posted this morning, it appears there is an actual chance that Five Justices will agree with New Jersey.
Perhaps most crucially for New Jersey, Justice Stephen Breyer pressed Clement to explain Congress’ goal in enacting PASPA. When Clement responded that Congress wanted to eliminate “state-sponsored or -operated gambling taking place by either individuals or the state,” Breyer pounced. That means, he observed, “there is no interstate policy other than the interstate policy of telling the states what to do.” Arguing for the United States in support of the NCAA and the sports leagues, Deputy Solicitor General Jeffrey Wall tried to offer the justices a way around a potentially sticky constitutional problem. Here, he said, even though New Jersey characterized its 2014 law as a repeal of existing state laws regulating sports betting, the law actually authorized sports betting, in the sense that it only allowed sports betting at 12 specific casinos and racetracks in the state. But that response got him into hot water with Roberts, after Wall responded “yes” to a question about whether New Jersey could repeal all existing state laws, “across the board, no exceptions.” “You have no problem at all and anyone can engage in any kind of gambling they want” – including a 12-year-old going to a casino? Roberts asked incredulously. The argument continued for a few minutes more, but that exchange may have been enough for at least five justices. A decision in the case is expected by summer. full article is here https://www.scotusblog.com/2017/12/argument-analysis-justices-seem-side-state-sports-betting/ |
3825 | 4 |
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Here is the final bit from SCOTUS Blog, posted this morning, it appears there is an actual chance that Five Justices will agree with New Jersey.
Perhaps most crucially for New Jersey, Justice Stephen Breyer pressed Clement to explain Congress’ goal in enacting PASPA. When Clement responded that Congress wanted to eliminate “state-sponsored or -operated gambling taking place by either individuals or the state,” Breyer pounced. That means, he observed, “there is no interstate policy other than the interstate policy of telling the states what to do.” Arguing for the United States in support of the NCAA and the sports leagues, Deputy Solicitor General Jeffrey Wall tried to offer the justices a way around a potentially sticky constitutional problem. Here, he said, even though New Jersey characterized its 2014 law as a repeal of existing state laws regulating sports betting, the law actually authorized sports betting, in the sense that it only allowed sports betting at 12 specific casinos and racetracks in the state. But that response got him into hot water with Roberts, after Wall responded “yes” to a question about whether New Jersey could repeal all existing state laws, “across the board, no exceptions.” “You have no problem at all and anyone can engage in any kind of gambling they want” – including a 12-year-old going to a casino? Roberts asked incredulously. The argument continued for a few minutes more, but that exchange may have been enough for at least five justices. A decision in the case is expected by summer. full article is here https://www.scotusblog.com/2017/12/argument-analysis-justices-seem-side-state-sports-betting/ |
vanzack | 23 |
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Nice work.
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vanzack | 136 |
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Thanks for the insight and taking the time to post.
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vanzack | 136 |
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replied to
Very good statistics article on the Pats fumbles since 2006 rule change....
in NFL Betting
a couple of statistics assistant professors from Loyola and Skidmore have an interesting retort to the aforementioned article on deadspin tonight. Pretty good stuff on the data used by the sharp football folks. A decent read.
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vanzack | 18 |
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thanks much for all the effort . . . as someone wrote earlier . . . I am making much more informed wagers with your insight.
I'm taking a stab at Mexico reaching the final at +1150, the pricing appears to assume that Mexico will face Argentina in a semi (should el tri get that far) , and I agree with your logic that Tina stands a decent chance of not even making it to the semi. Also, taking the Swiss at +975 to reach the semi-final . . . i just don't think the prices within that quarter reflect each teams chances of making the semi. thanks again, glad i followed your lead and bought France at the low, low, low price of +2150. |
vanzack | 447 |
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https://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/06/luis-suarez-biting-prop-bet-norway
I didnt see this one on 5 dimes. |
vanzack | 11 |
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Top notch.
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vanzack | 11 |
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Rangers ML for me today
1.02 units at -105 |
3825 | 2 |
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From a Sunday point of view, Texas seemed like an easy play last night, especially for those that backed the Alt RL and/or the -2.5 line.
Looking at today's game, with each team being -105, i would be hard pressed to back a team with Brandon Maurer on the mound and a lineup behind him that includes the likes of Bloomquist, Buck, Romero, Gillespie, with Saunders leading off. Funny, Saunders wasnt good enough to face the Texas lefty last night in a game in which he had already hit a HR, but he is good enough to bat leadoff vs Harrison today. All that being said, perhaps Saunders, Bloomquist, Romero, and Gillespie are better than Miller, Ackley, Saunders . . . hard to back the home team in this matchup, even with Harrison returning from the shelf. |
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Quote Originally Posted by easties: felix is a beast, you should never bet against him. even if you do not want to lay the juice never ever bet against especially at home. he is a consistent machine on his home field. The Mariners fared pretty well last Monday at -250 with felix on the mound didnt they? |
3825 | 19 |
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I will be on the Texas ML, or the Texas Alt RL, or the Under 6.5 . . . i'm not laying 30 cents juice for the Under 7, I would be expecting a 2-1 or 3-1 affair, and I'll save the 30 cents and get on the 6.5
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3825 | 19 |
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Quote Originally Posted by remeedella: yet you have no side to picK? and? |
3825 | 19 |
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Good thing I stayed on the porch last night, it's very unlikely I would have found myself on the Mariners ML or the Over. 3 runs scored off of Wild Pitches, and 4 Mariners "hitters" were plunked by Rangers pitches.
Laying 70 cents on this offense versus a team with a winning record is not a wise play in my opinion. Sure, Felix is great, and he's likely to win this game, but is he likely enough to justify the -170 price tag? I dont think so. The Mariners are making yet another lineup change tonight, as Michael Saunders goes from the doghouse to the penthouse. Brad Miller goes back to the #9 spot, meanwhile Almonte gets moved down the the two hole. The Mariners 1-2 punch this season has been pathetic. No team in the AL has a lower leadoff batter On Base % than Lloyd's guy. And if you think Almonte was bad as a leadoff batter, note the guys the Mariners have run out there in the two hole . . . they have combined to hit a woeful .174 with an on base % of .208 . . . .just horrible. I really dont think you can lay 70 cents to back a team of that nature. I dont want to count on Texas pitchers plunking 4 mariners tonight, nor do i want to count on Arencibia making another stupid play when the Mariners are willing to give up an out. |
3825 | 19 |
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word out of safeco field is this astros pitcher is rather lame, that being said, i can't lay 60 cents to back the home team . . . the over 8.0 seems like it might be worthy . . . but asking the mariners to be involved in a 9 run game feels like a stretch to me.
the porch awaits. |
3825 | 3 |
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I might be living on borrowed time after backing both the Marlins and Astros in games, but backing the Mariners at these prices does not seem wise at all. I took a stab with Eias in Miami at close to even money . . . i just dont see much value in backing Mariners at -162 against an Astros starter making his seasonal debut. I didnt really expect Houston to win last night, but there is no way the Mariners should have been a -240 favorite. That price demanded a play on the under dog, and I got lucky when Felix didnt maintain his brilliant form from his previous 4 starts.
Moving forward, it's either the Astros again, or a play on the total. |
3825 | 3 |
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It pains me to do so, but I believe the prices today demand a fade of the King and his offense.
.61 Units on Astros at +230 Putting together back to back brilliant outings is tough, doing it 3 times in row, very difficult . . . 4 straight, very rare . . . I am banking that Felix is not brilliant tonight. Could be the wrong call, put I'm taking a chance. |
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I'm taking a shot at fading the pitching today.
I think Over 8.0 is the play. |
3825 | 1 |
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I snuck one through last night when I backed the Marlins . . . I will switch sides tonight and back the slight favorite, and roll the dice with the young Cuban pitcher and the woeful Mariners offense.
1.03 Units on Seattle at -107 |
3825 | 4 |
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