Bridge1

Great stuff Doc .. Close out the season YUUUUGE!!! 

For me the last couple weeks are all about teams showing up .. pretty much any dog we can reasonably predict to show up feels like it belongs in the card for a couple bucks .. has to be some circumstance beyond power ratings to lay any points at this juncture .. And some dogs are playing for nothing but not really a reason to lay points with the fav either I'd consider those dogs too and home field has to be navigated .. BAMA home for Iron Bowl facing the fans is huuuuge .. UCLA home with empty rose bowl maybe inspires nothing but doctors notes from the BRU CREW .. and maaaan if we can't deduce some reason why the fav is interested in showing up then there's every reason to take a stab on the ML or drop some of those into a parlay .. 

Agree on Memphis its a team that is 100% showing up to this game regardless of the situation and even w Tulane wanting a big win for their playoff hopes it won't be handed to them .. play on Memp or no play for me .. 

How about Troy layin 17.5 at home in almost certainly an empty home stadium playing a SMISS team that was still fighting last week lookin for their first FBS win .. funny feeling there .. UCLA same thing .. UCLA post USC has lost I think 5 straight up and failed to cover 3 more really only one big win since 2016 in this spot .. maybe the new management gets em to play hard here but HFA forget it, feels like they were toast in this one the moment the schedule came out ..  

Would be careful with UNLV laying a gigantic number Nevada isin't that good but when they're playing well they've surprised everyone .. BIIIG rivalry game you just know they'd love to cancel their conf champ game and playoff hopes on their big fancy home field lol .. never forget the BRAWL that broke out a few years back w these two they aint showin up just to lay down here . 

BRIDGE PLAY

EAST CAROLINA +1.5

Big news with Blake Harrell the OC and interim coach is now officially announced as the HC and the team was in such a bad spot mid year when Mike Houston was fired and frankly I was a bit worried ECU wasn't even gunna make their RSW total .. and I had 5.5 not 6 or 6.5 like many others ..  Blake took things over and they just look like they're in a better place with offense and defense playing hard and guys stepping up .. they never really turned into the team I thought they coulda been with Houser at QB but they certainly are in a great spot now .. there's a worry about where this team's head would be at going into the final game with bowl in hand and so on but the big news and announcement was one players went wild for and really in the final weeks of the year you need to know why in the heck is a team bothering to show up .. welp ECU is a proud program and things like bowl games and win/loss records mean alot especially considering the journey the team went on to get back to a bowl game 2 yrs ago and the horrifically bad follow on year .. they're clearly over the BIIIIG asperations they had going into the season and now it's just about the heart of the team .. like the situation for them at home catching a point or so rallying to the new HC and I'd expect they carry that MOJO into their bowl game, and considering Houser was elevated off the bench by Harrell he's gunna show up for sure this game I believe .. Navy also beat ECU 10-zip last year late in the season .. 

As for Navy the season reallly tailed off they had their big win vs Memphis and beat up a couple other teams but after that ND loss they really pulled a no show game in a few spots vs Rice and unclear what the QB situation is gunna be .. they already have their bowl in hand and Horvath was injured in a Tulane blowout .. he made a return but was ineffective .. the backup was total dog sh!t .. If there's any problem with Horvath you don't think twice about sitting him in this game and allow him to heal a few weeks before the big Army showdown .. we also saw Navy pull a complete no show vs SMU last year in this spot on the road game 21 pt dogs were toast in about 3 minutes .. Maybe it is closer to a coin flip with a healthy Horvath but all things considered feels like a number of reasons why this one should lean to the Pirates .. let's do it!!! ..  HOIST THE COLORS!!!!!! 

@D-Town 

@BigTymePlayer25  

@mjm1012 

@robtri  YEAH buddy we shoulda hit a round robin on those huh?! .. next time!!

FUTURES .. THE STILL ALIVE AND THE JUST DIED .. Original odds and updated ..

11 conf champ futures posted 2 died last week but 5 remain .. can't complain! Got a little hedge on Indy last week unfortunately didn't middle OSU ML with Indy's points .. oh well .. fun while it lasted and got something back from it .. didn't get anything outta W.Mich they were in trouble since mid ssn .. Can't kill Sam Houston or GA Southern!! .. Gotta hedge our Clones futures this week, can we get +3 with K-State? ..  Clones run D stinks and theres a worry they get run over in this spot .. you might consider hedging on BYU to win the B12 champ game because they are next in line if ASU or Clones lose their game according to the internet .. Sammy Hoo needs a win and WKY loss to make the CUSA champ game I actually hedged on JVILLE ML last week and might as well try to run it back again, tough to imagine we're getting more than hedge money with them!! SMU is locked into their champ game .. GA.SO we need a win and Marsh to lose and then like all of em X our fingers .. 

No need to do anything with Travis he's gunna get wild in this last game and don't think we really needed a champ game the media decided this for us a couple weeks ago .. that said I am sitting on 100-1 Jeanty only shot is he runs for like 560 more yards and breaks the record next week and in the champ game .. possible but they might be playing with fire trying to get him the requisite carries esp if they go for it vs UNLV .. I also hit Cam Ward seems like only other possible threat .. hard to imagine anyone can stop T-HUNT now tho .. 

SMU for natty 500-1 is getting interesting FD making about a 9x offer to buy me out.. FD doesn't buy me out, I'm gunna buy them out .. lol .. the move we mentioned pre-ssn was win the conf, get a bye and see if we can pull an upset .. things get real interesting at that point .. 

Michigan par-fade .. welp .. funny thing is I have 2 of those tickets and other had a bunch of other Mich GOY's in it USC+8.5, Wash +7.5,  at 99-1 .. Saturday is gunna be fun .. If caesars doesn't let us combine same team GOY's next year then you'll know why ..  

SMU 22-1 .. +140
IOWA STATE 12-1  .. +260
GA SOUTHERN 25-1  .. +700
SAM HOUSTON 30-1  .. +950
ARIZONA STATE 100-1 .. +135
W.MICHIGAN 10-1  .. 
INDIANA 80-1 .. 

NATTY:
SMU 500-1 .. 35-1

HEISMAN:
TRAVIS HUNTER 75-1 .. -750 .. WE'RE INVERTED!!!

MICH PAR-FADE:
TEX -4, OREG -4, MSU+22, OSU -10.5  ..  12-1 is now -99999.9998 

SSN WINS:
13-1 = 93% = SAFE & EFFECTIVE .. CHEERS.. 

CAL OVER 5.5 -135 
LSU UNDER 9.5 -110 
VANDY OVER 2.5 -120 
UCLA UNDER 5.5 +120 
INDIANA OVER 5.5 +125 
MICHIGAN UNDER 9 -140 
S.CAROLINA OVER 5.5 -120 
MINNESOTA OVER 5.5 +115 
E. CAROLINA OVER 5.5 -150 
GA SOUTHERN OVER 5  -115 
FLORIDA ST UNDER 9.5 -115  
GA SOUTHERN OVER 4.5 -175 
SAM HOUSTON OVER 4.5 -130 
PITT UNDER 5.5 -125 

BRIDGE PLAYS
SMU -11
BYU -11.5
UMASS +10.5
KANSAS +1.5
FRESNO +10.5
GA TECH +20.5
CINCINNATI +2.5
NEW MEXICO -2.5

SMALLER
UCF -7.5
LSU -4.5
NOTRE DAME -6.5
NC STATE - PK (GOY)
S.CAROLINA +13 (GOY)
UMASS/UCONN OVER 52.5
LSU/OKLA OVER 47.5

FUN BET
UMASS ML/OVER 52.5

BRIDGE PLAY

BYU -11.5

I can't think of anything worse as a season finale for Houston than going to Provo for 9.15 game that TG Saturday in sub freezing weather and absolutely nothing to play for .. Houston's offense stuuuunk baaaad all year and feels like the'll get pinned down pretty easy in this spot .. Defense has been okay but again we can't have many reservations about even the things these guys do well showing up in this game .. I would rate this just about as good as the Colorado's getting OK.State to go there for the early 10am game and book responded to that making Buffs a 14.5 point fav and went wayy up hovering around 17 now .. We do know that based on how the games go BYU may in-deed have nothing to play for or just no shot at the B12 title game by the time they play this one .. but on the one hand, they might be playing for a conf champ game spot, but more importantly even if not they gotta be practicing this week like they are .. and beyond conf champ game they can still land a 10-2 season having lost to possible b12 champ ASU on the road and KU .. beat K-State by like 30 .. and possibly beat ACC Champ SMU .. that's at least a resume that's worth submitting and the one way to dash all that is play a ho-humm game vs these turds from Houston who I think will pack in their season by Monday afternoon .. BYU should be practicing like champs this week knowing there's still very likely to be continued insanity in CFB straight thru week 14 and maybe even into champ game series .. And whether a post season shot is even imaginable BYU will at the very least play hard for their fans that went all in for their team the for this great season and think they get a big crowd and Coogs respond with a big win no matter the situation .. their situation is muuuuuch diff than the many teams who will have demoralizingly few fans to send them off from a miserable season lol .. GO COOGS!!

BRIDGE PLAY

GA TECH +20.5

Uga officially now in a look ahead spot and the line hasn't moved I think it has to be lower like 16.5 .. we saw Haynes king was limited last game but backup Aaron Philio came in and looked great didn't skip much of a beat with him .. I'd expect King back and maaaan this GT team is just soooo tough n tricky and able to run the ball and pass .. I really think they can turn it into a slug fest can't imagine this is 21 or more when Circa comes out feels like best we'll get is 17.5 and maybe proceed downward from there .. good luck! .. GO RAMBLERS!!

SMALLER

NOTRE DAME -6.5

Expect USC to show up but Trojans without much of a run game and welp we saw how that goes when playin ND last week .. and USC making a bowl game finally and taking revenge on their bit rival I would half suspect there to be a few more USC guys thinking about their portal situation .. ND without a chance to play in the CCG should be trying to get the best of the rest seeding position they can and with USC being one of their better opponents this year they can certainly help their case with a bigger win this week and yeah no CCG its the last time for guys to play for about a month and with plenty of subs playing last week it probably wouldn't be smart to give the starters another short game / break this week .. they certainly don't want to flirt with a loss here or potentially land in a crappier seed and home field in the first round is reallllly important for them.. good luck!

BRIDGE PLAY

CINCINNATI +2.5

Just no way I can look at this spot with Cincy at home lookin for a bowl coming after a pretty obvious down road spot I missed last week in manhattan .. think it was Cincy's first trip there and K-State still a shot at the conference .. welp now its a home game and Bearcats have clawed very hard this year and we know they want this .. TCU is coming in as a fairly hot team but also off games at home vs Oklahoma State as they were trying to make a bowl game then had a bye week and got AZ at home last week another very obvious pummel spot, CATS have done nothing but get wrecked on the road so far multiple games now .. TCU has 7 wins locked up their bowl and absolutely no mathematical shot at the conf champ game now .. decent season but month since last road game @baylor on Nov 2nd and noon kickoff may not be BUTT AZZ cold but will be all morning leading to kickoff and in the 30's or so for the game so considerably colder than dallas and just not much motivation here IMO .. Cincy claws their way to a bowl game .. wish I knew more about the team to make it a bigger play but spot catching pts at home w the motivation and both teams misleading path to this one with TCU easier schedule and Cincy much harder tells me we can take the points here and at least know our team will really want to win this bad boii .. good luck!!

BRIDGE PLAY

NEW MEXICO -2.5

Playing for a most improbable bowl run as this team was a SUPER OUTLIER in the models going into this year .. Bronco with the 'made a bowl game' coach of the year job .. well done .. we expected to FADE the LOBOS HAAARD if they didn't pull off that last massive win vs Wash State and stroll into Hawaii with 4 wins .. but now off a bye and NO DOUBT a team that wants to get this done .. Hawaii on the flip side is sitting with 4 wins .. 2 of em are FCS teams ... and absolutely no shot at a bowl game .. I suspect these guys will be more / less checked out on a saturday following thanksgiving with really not much to play for and fans also not much to cheer for either .. very possible timmy chang is gone after this game and maybe there is some inspired play particularly vs a VERY VERY BAAAD D that NM shows up with .. but regardless this feels a bowl game for them and not a particularly strong effort is expected from the Bows outside of maybe that we have a 'win one for coach' situation coming this week .. not the biggest BP in history obvi but yeah gotta play this spot w the strong motivated team .. took some at -2.5 and some on the ML .. you know those lobos just gotta angle for a 1 point win and would lean toward playing this one a little safer .. good luck!

SMALLER

NC STATE - PICK'EM (GOY)
SOUTH CAROLINA +13 (GOY)

Last couple GOY's on the slate .. one feels better than the other thought we'd be better w NC State maybe -4.5 instead of +4.5 or whatever .. either way this feels like a game the wolfpack can sack up and pull off a win .. S.Carolina tho .. woaaaaaaah buddy gift that keeeeps ooooon givin eh?! .. gotta love that one .. think we said pre ssn this could be down to a TD or so .. instead its at +2.5!!!.. and honestly think it moves closer to a pick'em by kickoff cuz S.CAR is HOT N DANGEROUS and no doubt playing for that final seed spot after TOTAL MAYHEM in the SEC last week .. good luck!

@JozKnows

 Yeah Joz I think the trouble for Vandy in this spot is its a big TENN rivalry obvi and Vols could use a big win for playoff resume they were sitting on the bubble of last week and after all the chaos they reallllly can't mess around here .. Also Tenn's D front is ALOT like the front of S.Carolina just super duper nasty and disruptive and Vandy has trouble doing much when they can't operate how they want up front .. Sportsbooks know who the fun dogs are .. Vandy, Indiana, Army .. its not a surprise they lay a hook out there for us and know everyone wants to see Tyson pull a knockout and things tend to go how you'd expect .. LSU's D caused some trouble for the Dores and they aren't very good .. gunna see where the line goes I feel like I could have some Vandy fun money but for a bigger play let's see if folks recognize the spot for the vols and move the line accordingly .. tough to imagine it feels like 9 to 12 or so is where the line should be .. 

Missouri is on the CFP rankings list and again with the chaos you just know they gotta take a chance here .. I hit it early on Arkansas +4.5 last night .. not really interested in playing for less .. rivalry game hope its close .. 

SMALLER

LSU -4.5

Oklahoma off game of their lives and I've been surprised that Kelly has had his guys show up in spots you could imagine they lay down in .. one things for sure tho Tigers lookin to make a real run next year this is one he can challenge his team in the 'who wants to play' sense .. Oklahoma I think is mentally checked out after biggest home win unreal hard core physical game one of the biggest wins in stadium history and clinched a bowl w it .. LSU might not have any problem in this one .. lean to over as well .. 47.5 .. could very well be scoring on both sides .. good luck!

LSU / OKLAHOMA OVER 47.5

BRIDGE PLAY

FRESNO +10.5

Maybe 2 teams that don't show up here but UCLA has not shown up in this post USC spot for a few years as a decent favorite .. and I don't really care the bruins are playing at home again we've seen it before in this spot .. nothing more lonely or demoralizing than an empty rose bowl .. I do suspect Ethan Garbers will show up here he's waited a long time to QB this team .. but in the portal age this feels like a game with no bowl on the line that players can focus on their next moves if not skip out on entirely .. Fresno has a big P5 essentially a bowl game to play here and I absolutely think its one they will show up for .. good luck .. 

BRIDGE PLAY

KANSAS +1.5

KU looking to make a bowl game after fully horrific start .. Baylor has the most outside outside shot to make the B12 champ game but we've seen KU is on a mission and we knew we'd take any points in this spot .. Baylor having a really great turnaround year 7 wins now but even w this big home finale its Waco on Thanksgiving Saturday at noon and I'm just gunna guess that the crowd is a little bit subdued .. Liepold rallied his at one point 1-5 team to 5-6 with a big 3 game winning streak and not an easy road to bring it back .. his players want this the goal was obvi to mix it up for the conf but the dream died early and this is just such an epic IN LEIPOLD WE TRUST spot they obvi want this bowl real bad .. GO JAYHAWKS!

BRIDGE PLAY

SMU -11

Got this 10.5 when it showed up yesterday and its -11.5 now -106 on fan let's call it -11 for the records why not .. you can buy half a point and get about -110 odds and make the play .. This was one of the BIGGEST DEADDIEST DEAD SPOTS on the entire CFB schedule looking it over pre-ssn .. CAL finale over thanksgiving and I suspected they might have made a bowl vs their big rival Stanford .. now ya gotta go east and while the Ponies don't need a win here to make the conf champ game they're locked in, they absolutely should want to CEMENT themselves into the playoff barring a loss to Miami or maybe Clemson in the CCG .. Pundits had SMU as first team out last week and while that's not the case after the WILD WEEK 13 the dick around and lose this one they will be almost certainly OUT if they lose again in the CCG .. a HUGE win here makes them very very difficult to leave out IMO regardless of what happens in the CCG .. Recall this was more/less the spot last year with a hapless Navy team and they blew them to smithereens game was over first 5 minutes .. and maaan did you see the post game interview w CAL's QB Mendoza .. he might still be UGLY CRYING at kickoff of this game .. such a massive MASSIVE win and coming together moment for CAL last week and we knew this spot was next level nasty in the first place .. Was hoping to get SMU under 14 gladly taking it here .. GO PONIES!

Fan duel openers .. the BP's can't be THAT huge since FAN has me on a short leash but most I'm pairing up with the ML if the odds are short enough 

BRIDGE PLAY

UMASS +10.5

Just gunna say they got a dude at QB in true freshman AJ Hairston .. maybe that game was the goodbye coach super human effort but this is a VERY WINNABLE home game and huge chance to go out with a win this season .. loved everything I was seeing from the MASS offense vs UGA very inspired all the way even if we sorta knew UGA was gunna be .. maybe intentionally .. playing a down game .. seems like Kirby would put backups in and intentionally create tough situations for the D test them out not bring pressure etc etc .. welp UConn won't do that here but I think we saw the new QB and TYSOON PHOMMAMACHAN rotating in playing hard .. think it carries over to this week .. 

SMALLER

UMASS / UCONN OVER 52.5

Possibility of strong winds maybe but were dealing with a possibly surging UMASS offense with Shane Montgomery OC taking over the interim spot and this situation turning into what we saw with RESURGENT ECU with their OC taking the reins and offense coming alive in a major way .. whether Shane wants this job or not he can put himself in HIGH DEMAND lol and at least lock up an offer by winning this game .. I don't think there will be much in the way of defense here .. some worry about the weather and pace of play but whatever I think we get back / forth scoring in this one .. 

UCF -7.5 .. we will definitely hit this again at -7 and would love to see the -6.5 or -6 would turn in a BRIDGE PLAY .. this was lookin like a deadly spot on Utah's schedule even back when they were good .. lead in w Holy War vs BYU then @Colorado then home finale vs Clones and now thanksgiving in the Bounce House .. at night .. stretch was a deth knell to any chance at a perfect season for sure .. Utes played very very hard in a home finale for what very well coulda been Whittingham's final home game as the HC .. we don't know that yet he could announce his retirement and they show up big in this spot too .. but .. it feels like this could just be an epic down spot from a team that totally blew their load last night .. Friday night quick turnaround game and UCF we faded last week but they are still playing its just we need a good spot and think this is it .. again let's look at the coaching situation for utah .. and maybe UCF too .. and let's see what the mood is for the teams to show up who wants a memory because its two teams without a bowl shot now .. 

FUN BET

UMASS ML/OVER 52.5 .. GO MINUTEMEN!!

JMU ROMP down the field on first drive for a TD and the ragin screamin revenge of app state ruining their perfect ssn last year got extinguished not to mention their chances to hoist the SUN BELT .. think its been a rough year and probably lacked the depth to take them into these late rounds but whatever the problem for JMU is they sure fell apart on the big .. (not nearly as big as last year's) .. stage again .. 

Indiana punt team handing OSU 2 free TD's and special teams has been their calling card all year winning in 3 phases .. and while it probably doesn't even win them the game if they don't do that we almost certainly cover with Indy still playing conservative close game late in this ball game .. Def a team I'll look to revenge their bad loss in the playoff because this big spot on the road with the mistakes and throwing off the game plan could look decidedly different next time they play a biiiig game .. 

Nebraska we noted a team still playing very hard and going for a big bowl game in front of their home crowd and Wisco off a MASSIVE and PUNSISHING effort vs Oregon and it certainly showed as BADgers threw a punch early but turned into Tyson after a quarter or so .. Nebraska didn't get the jake paul script and PUMMELLED these guys .. nice spot read!!

Minny was such a MASSIVE home game for them and very very verrrry nearly an upset win it easily coulda been .. PSU with wild fake punt in their own territory last drive if they don't make it Minny takes an easy FG .. they converted 3rd's and 4th's over and over killing the clock .. easy cover .. 

O-KLA-HOMA!!! OKLAHOMA!! OKLAHOMA!! OKLAHOMA!!! .. biggest game on their schedule circled pre ssn going for a bowl on top of it and let's say whoever was injured would be miraculously cured and the game plan would be real strong particularly on D .. was such a tough physical game and numerous bama players hurt in game and wow what a MASSIVE win for a team desperately needing a MASSIVE win .. CALLED IT!!!

Umass .. watch that new QB .. he's a total dude .. handled UGA pressure escape and hit a WR down field and just very very impressive performance all the way from him plus the RB's rippin and the WR .. off fiding of coach DON BROWN and this team looked like they could be a G5 playoff contender lol .. YOU KNOW WE TAKIN EM THIS WEEK DON'TCHA!!

W.Virginia .. didn't understand the line for this spot at all .. UCF is not some wild turnaround story they're still playing but going @WV when they want to make a bowl like going into a bears den eating their food it aint gunna work .. 

Boston College was another what the heck spot we could see easily big home game for a bowl vs team just made bowl in a dead roadie before their big rivalry game .. easy peasy .. 

SO.Bama .. what the hell guys .. finished w 21 pt win took a min to get going and sentiments were just get a win and get outta there .. S.Miss w small sign of life early on and they still SUUUUUCK BAAAAD! .. 

BP 3-2 .. 25-18 YTD
SM 3-1 .. 50-53 YTD

WK13 RECAP:

BRIDGE PLAYS
NEBRASKA +1.5 
OKLAHOMA +14.5 
MINNESOTA +13.5 
JAMES MADISON -7.5 
INDIANA +11 

SMALLER
UMASS +45.5 
WEST VIRGINIA +2.5 
BOSTON COLLEGE +2.5 
SOUTH BAMA -21.5 

BRIDGE PLAY

JAMES MADISON -7.5

Got this -6 at the open and didn't mention it but this was circled pre ssn as one of the ..  maybe theeee biggest screamin hate filled revenge spots of the season .. I think we're laying too many sure but knew I'd be playing and now here we go .. the danger is that Appy is probably a bit better now since their early .. major .. struggles .. but when I mark these spots pre-ssn I usually enjoy the results even w a line that recognizes there's a favorable spot .. and we're gunna do this now .. JMU .. massive win .. let's go ..