Bridge1

^^ on that note we also seen Charlotte fail miserably trying to reinvent themselves they got a coach that could recruit the portal talent and had a ton of it but all guys with no connection to the school or each other couldn't get off the ground .. guys playing for themselves .. 

That's a real phenomenon too, teams filling themselves with portal players and don't succeed and even the ones that achieve success seem to find that hard to replicate .. FSU's nuclear meltdown feels like the result of a team with too many deficiencies and couldn't overcome it with the talent they had .. guys with no connection and just no identity on the team .. and frankly its not a huge surprise that in the year Ole Miss goes ALL IN to make a big run they fail at the critical moment.. we'll see if they can remain in contention, not easy to do .. TCU same thing portal heavy Cinderella year but the magic wore off real quick last year and given what they had coming back it shouldn't have .. 

The teams I'd like to see use the portal to get over the hump are BYU and Clemson such a strong corps of recruited players, strong identity of the team, program and feels like attractive places and they won't sacrifice much by filling the gaps attracting players there .. 

I think biggest beneficiaries of the whole situation today is with underperforming P4 teams ones that at least have recruited decently well and aren't dud ridden, have a decent standing roster but also have the resources to spend / a program that's ready to turn their fortunes around, gotta have the coaches and donors in place ready to make their moves .. won't always be a massive jump in one year but you see parity of elite teams to the very good teams now and its not theoretical for a one year massive turnaround .. and depending on the conf competition it can be one that contends for the conference and/or playoffs or just otherwise achieves success the team couldn't have previously imagined .. Indy / Vandy / ASU .. they got the coaching changes they needed but all that success woulda taken years without the portal grabs and likely wouldn't have happened since those coaches tend to move on after a couple successful years ..

P4 teams like Wake that don't really have the money or get unbelievably lucky w their recruiting or the portal are going to fall behind .. But that doesn't mean Wake can't reinvent themselves later it just feels like a MAJOR attitude change has to occur .. 

Feels like the dynamic for G5 favors the better teams with the one playoff spot and limited resources and only a few teams that can really pull down the better recruits, not many really strong coaching situations at that level either .. Liberty, Boise State, Memphis, Tulane, recruit well, have the coaches in place and have at least some money to spend = good formula to land players needed from the portal .. App State not wasting time hiring a new coach I can't imagine they aren't desperate to get their mojo back quickly after a horrible slide last couple yrs .. 

G5 teams can also reinvent themselves via the portal certainly .. So Bama and Texas State were left for dead before making killer coaching hires and able to attract relatively unproven but very talented portal classes, guys wanting to play .. Bobs brought in alot of guys from UIW was the core of their turnaround .. Interested to see So Miss, team was left for dead, made a decent coaching hire and imported half of Marshall so they have a corps of guys with connection to the coach and each other .. 

Not every P4 team benefits but I'd say big picture if they have more resources and inclined to spend the money then NIL + Portal clearly benefits those teams .. that's not to say there isin't a big picture benefit to other teams because success as a starter is the key to landing NIL riches and G5 and even FCS levels can attract talented players with starting spots available .. but there's a vibrant market for proven talent and that's why we're seeing movement every year and wild offerings, I'd expect for every big money NIL deal we hear about there are many more for that player that were made and rejected .. 

Elite teams even with the resources have their own challenges now too the whole era of the dynasty superteam with 4 and 5 star depth that wasn't just true FR has vanished in the last couple years w NIL and final stake in the heart is those teams can't offer access to what was the very very exclusive 'playoff club' .. now its 30+ teams every year with a real shot to make it not like 5-10 with maybe 3 with a realistic shot to win a natty  .. I Thought UGA, OSU and maybe Bama coulda been BIG beneficiaries last year as they retained much of their talent still and OSU actually seemed to improve their situation with their big money portal spend .. and we saw how everything had to come together with the portaled in players, the coaches/coordinators, but without the very very strong corps of buckeye lifers who returned specifically to win the natty that team probably falls apart after the michigan loss .. very tough to expect a repeat there .. 

@JozKnows

Not gunna say when to bet anything but yeah its layin odds now to hopefully pick up in like 10 months so .. and we have the concentrated risk with lagway if he's hurt at any point then no idea whose stepping in but that'll be big trouble .. and holy smokes that schedule is still XXX NASTY .. for 6.5 layin those odds we'd need to KNOW that Florida leveled up in a big way and then we're still dealing with the risks with the timing ... most optimistic number we could maybe ever make pre-ssn will be 7.5 and so yeah no thanks .. There's a couple in the SEC I'm spying we'll get to it sooner than later .. 

Some conf odds up there now .. pretty crowded field in the SEC .. B12 with the crowded field you got maybe 8-10 potential contenders if we subscribe to the assumption that nobody is head and shoulders above the rest .. ASU 5.5 isint unlikable .. BYU 6.5 and maaan we might see them on a warpath this year think ther'll be alot to like w them .. tough to get horny for 5.5 and 6.5 x odds when sans Iowa State we had 4 deep cellar pre-ssn bottom dwellers ASU, BYU, Colo, Baylor pretty much dominating the final standings sans Iowa St .. the big odds teams all ended bottom half of the standings lol .. total insanity .. 

@BigTymePlayer25

@UNIMAN

Thx dudes, yeah heck of a season .. little disappointed in the regular non playoff bowl games .. had some early reads that seemed like the way to go and got all the CLV I could handle .. but yeah if someone came up with a chart on how precious different CLV's were I'd imagine week zero would be something nearing 'fools gold' and then Bowl CLV would come in just under 'fools tin foil' .. Uni how about making that can be your first off season project? lol.. 

yeah im kinda dabblin a little here n there .. quite a few schedules out now some conf have them more/less complete with dates and some know the teams not the dates and some are still in the oven .. 

Fan with some stuff up .. couple of the big week 1 lines, some win totals, heismans, natty gotta love their enthusiasm .. only browsed the schedules so far but gotta say Florida over 6.5 -125 was interesting odds juiced a little higher now .. feels like they ended on a good note and MAJOR do or die year for them couple more likes 

LSU O8.5 .. def a wait and see how the portal and roster shakes out but I pegged them pre-ssn as a possible mulligan seeing their D was in trouble and didn't spend the money to attempt a run .. for all the Kelly crap talking going around I gotta say he really makes the most of his teams every year and maybe a pity they didn't spend on a few studs because they coulda realllly squeeked into the champ game and the playoff whereas I thought the season coulda gone south in a major way .. came up short but even after the 3 losses kept fighting to the finish and smacked down a streaky baylor team in the bowl .. really can't consider taking rsw overs this early when they're sitting well above 6 but I had a little natty fun at 24-1 or so, Tigers on my early like list for next yr, we'll see if they stay there .. 

Baylor / Auburn -1.5 / tot over 56 maybe just a little high but Auburn gunna have MAJOR WR weapons next year and not kinda major but maybe a reallly top unit .. hard to imagine they got all them to stay and added the best one from the portal and they're all not sure about the thrower situation .. like Auburn's improvement prospects .. strictly for fun I'd like Aub and maybe the tot over for fun I can't imagine the total goes up or drops considerably and hard to imagine Baylor being more than -3 I could see Aub potentially being more than -3 by kickoff if things start sounding right for them .. 

Maybe good news for you Uni we might see Michigan going 5 for 5 .. OSU with just such a great roster last yr we'll see what the new starting group looks like, the next man up WR we saw in the champ game for them looks pretty good and they'll have Tate and Smith too and Downs that's alot to build on .. but maaaaaan can't lose that QB now w everyone else gone and woah i'd imagine not every unit is so championship level this year .. layin over a TD @Mich again lol idk bout all that .. 

Welp the big play was for the win we like that but that coulda gone gangbusters and fell short of that ..

note to self when there's no D standout just start plugging the MASSIVE odds guys w most tackles, TJ TUI shoulda got it I think w the sack and TFL, Simon had like 1 more tackle didn't see him all game tho ..

idk how they didn't give T-HEN a TD on the 1 yd line when Quishhy had 2 already, hook yer friggin 4 year dude up guys ..

Leonard 34 yds on first drive ends w 40 beats the 37.5 friiig ..

Up 31-7 and somehow let em back in .. MOV busted .. next time gadget .. 

good luck n seeya soon .. 

NATTY
OHIO STATE WIN +115 
OHIO ST -7 (FAN HYPO) 

PROPS

RUSH
R.LEONARD UNDER 37.5 -112

REC
E.EGBUKA OVER 53.5 -112 
ADD: GREATHOUSE O22.5 -112 

SCORING
T.HENDERSON ANY TD +100 

TM TOTAL
NOTRE DAME UNDER 17.5 -105 

NATTY MVP
D.MVP CODY SIMON 7.5-1 
O.MVP JER SMITH 24-1 
O.MVP JER SMITH  7.5-1 
D.MVP TJ TUIMOLOAU 7-1 

MARGIN OF VICTORY!!!
OHIO STATE 31+ 9.5-1

@haymo

they ran QB power 9 times to open the game I figure they'd do more than that and .. yeah if OSU can't plug it up then its done but they limit that now get some sacks and see where it goes .. unfortunate start .. need some sacks here and we'll see, still early .. 

Good luck Wizer .. 

NATTY TIME .. ADDED GREATHOUSE AND THE MOV PROPS BELOW ..

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!! ..   

NATTY
OHIO STATE WIN +115
OHIO ST -7 (FAN HYPO)

PROPS

RUSH
R.LEONARD UNDER 37.5 -112

REC
E.EGBUKA OVER 53.5 -112
ADD: GREATHOUSE O22.5 -112

SCORING
T.HENDERSON ANY TD +100

TM TOTAL
NOTRE DAME UNDER 17.5 -105

NATTY MVP
O.MVP JER SMITH 24-1
O.MVP JER SMITH  7.5-1
D.MVP TJ TUIMOLOAU 7-1
D.MVP CODY SIMON 7.5-1

MARGIN OF VICTORY!!!
OHIO STATE 31+ 9.5-1

@JimboSlice01

Yeah took out big Marv from the game Egbuka picked up some of the slack there tho .. that's also reg season @ND, diff OC, diff QB but for sure its the big matchup if ND can man up and handle the big receiving targets then its trouble for OSU .. Whatever ND does they can't get beat deep, UT did a great job limiting the WR explosives no deep balls, no big catch n runs everything under 20 yards .. if not for the big screen play bucks are limited to ~210 pass yds probably the diff in the game since UT obvi kicks a FG on 4th down if they're tied up instead of getting CAPTAIN JACKED UUUUP!!! lol  

Yeah bucks can't have a 2 pick day and expect to win anything, gotta be much more efficient with the drives than they were last game they had a great first drive and basically went totally dormant from till the go ahead drive like 80 yards over 7 drives .. the offensive struggles have shown up time and again vs the better D's they faced Nebraska, Penn St, Mich, UT .. key to the game for ND make em drive the ball and there's a decent chance bucks will shoot themselves in the foot .. 

@Newtons Law

Yeah we'll see that's one of a few critical matchups in this game on both sides how much the WR's can be limited .. we knew PSU didn't have a quality in the unit coming in and ND legit shut them down completely 5 targets zero receptions and the pick and seemed to throw Allar totally out of sorts by limiting his targets .. and that's the talk for this one how they handle this group because we've seen Howard get outta sorts this year and seen bad throws, waiting for pressure, fumbling throwing pick 6's ..

ND's D needs a game like the Horns' D (nearly) delivered, cut J-Smith out of the picture completely and limit other big plays .. make the bucks drive it .. bucks have a rather glaringly ugly stat converting 3rd n shorts no real go-to guy for those so I'd expect ND does all they can to make OSU roll the dice in those situations ... Horns got them stopped on one 3rd n 1, Bucks killed 3 drives w penalties, 2 more failed taking sacks, and the 1 pick ..  T-HEN housing that screen was very fortunate .. otherwise the only good drives were the first and final ones and last drive had the false start set up the 4th n 2 .. just theoretically UT gets one more stop there on the 4th down, pick up 1 yard at the goal line, kick a FG early on, don't give up the big TD before the half .. all stuff they coulda and mostly shoulda done .. maybe Horns don't win 24-7 every time but its an easy win nonetheless .. that said think OSU prob wins that game by a TD most of the time and don't even need the couple freak TD's by just not getting the penalties, they've been great at limiting penalties all year, that one they get 9 lot of em were very impactful .. 

But yeah ND muddies up their offense and gets a little TO luck or Bucks start shooting themselves on their drives they can def lose this one certainly a path to not cover the > TD spread, -9.5 seemed a little rich for me that's why I just stuck to the Natty Win props and -7 on the hypo line .. That said Bucks play their best game WR's beating the man covers yeah oh boy long day for ND .. 

NATTY TALK

Previously played Jer Smith for Natty MVP before he had the MASSIVE game vs Oregon .. sorta expected he might have one .. and played again right after for the 7.5-1 .. at 3.5-1 now its wayyy too low with so soooo many guys who could break the game wide open for a massive standout game .. Didn't post but I also got Egbuka 35-1 and Tate 100-1 for a few bucks .. we saw Henderson's ability to land a big play but he's oft limited by Judkins and they split the reps very very evenly .. Judkins is also their shorter hard driving yards go to guy likely to pick up the short TD's like he did vs Texas ..  

Horns played a zone heavy coverage like they have been all year and the order of the day was don't let Jeremiah Smith be targeted .. Howard hit some great passes to Tate and Egbuka .. ND in press man coverage though and J-SMITH might be a dude that is juuuust uncoverable we don't quite know how that will play out .. we can however look to just last year for some idea .. ND/OSU Marvin Harrison 1200 Yds on the year .. only 32 yds that game no deep balls and had their best CB's covering him .. Egbuka as #2 WR back then did still manage 96 yds vs what was a great coverage unit last year .. Egbuka been getting plenty of targets in every game this year proven he can get thru ND's D last year when Freeman put a plan to stop their very strong #1 WR Harrison .. UT gave themselves a decent change to win by limiting Smith .. Oregon did not .. you bet there's a plan coming and let's trust Egbuka to get his targets and yards this game .. I also like the idea of this because Egbuka is an OSU lifer and here he is ending the journey its fitting as a program they find ways to get him the ball and potentially boost his draft stock as he coulda transferred like other WR's did and been a true feature WR and coulda gone pro last year, stayed on to finish the job for the team .. J-SMITH true Fr and Carnell Tate True Soph have more moments to come .. 

You can get 49.5 at ESPN -134 but laying twice the juice for 4 yards .. gunna x the fingers ... 

Wouldn't blame anyone for taking Egbuka for the Natty MVP either seeing like 15-1's out there as noted I'm already there 35-1 .. 

Very tough to imagine they also don't give him a real look for a TD maybe give him or T-Henderson first dibs if possible .. 

PROP

RECEIVING

E.EGBUKA OVER 53.5 (MGM)

And similar idea to Egbuka we have TreVeyon Henderson another Buckeyes LIFER on his final year .. Led the team rushing as a FR w a 1200 yd breakout season .. Was splitting with Myan Williams in '22 but injured after 8 games and had to sit out the UGA semifinal game .. missed a few games last year also .. and hung on with the bucks while they brought in another top dude RB in Judkins with a clear goal of winning the Natty but he will He will depart having never beat Michigan .. The calls have been fairly distrubuted between Jud and T-HEN and T can get a TD receiving or rushing .. we saw Jud get the 2 easier ones near the goal last game T-HEN scored on the amazing screen play .. There is juuuust noooo wayyyyy they are not bending over backward to line up Henderson for a TD in this game .. harder to predict for Egbuka but I would expect they dial up a solid TD look for him too .. 

PROP

SCORING

T.HENDERSON ANY TD +100 (FAN)

NATTY
OHIO STATE WIN +115
OHIO ST -7 (FAN HYPO)

PROPS

NATTY MVP
O.MVP JER SMITH 24-1
O.MVP JER SMITH  7.5-1
D.MVP TJ TUIMOLOAU 7-1
D.MVP CODY SIMON 7.5-1

RUSH
R.LEONARD UNDER 37.5

TM TOTAL
NOTRE DAME UNDER 17.5

NATTY TALK .. 

Far and away most reliable thing in this game is that Buckeyes DL should control the trenches and cause disruptions if not outright havoc .. ND has to make the most of their rec targets, the OC no doubt will see Horns had success getting the ball out quickly and they MUST do that .. I don't see a real path for ND's run game to lead the way here they've been more/less bottled up twice now .. Leonard might still be the go-to in short yardage but huge risk letting him get hit by these guys .. you saw Arch come in one play last game and I think he mighta got concussed / lucky his hand was just touching the ball as he hit the ground cuz it was on its way out and he had the 'where am i' look after making such a huge first down for the team no cheering at all .. Reilly might have played thru one of those last game but he takes a tough hit in this game you could see a scenario where they allow Angeli to take over again and maybe for entire game .. Think they have to play risk/reward with Reilly and limit him to just picking up the short yds .. close game late Reilly might take his own risks but even w no sacks he might not hit his rush total .. if Bucks D gets home .. eesh .. might need 50+ yds rushing just to come close .. 

PROP RUSH YDS 

REILLY UNDER 37.5 RUSH (FAN) 

Seeing some Defensive MVP odds out there now .. we saw TJ TUI go GAME WRECKING last week vs UT with 2 sacks, one hurry, 5 stops on D .. Capt Jack is +150 for obvious reasons it feels way wayyyy too short of odds expecting he'll get the game winning strip sack scoop n 90 yd TD score again .. Caleb Downs is +250 and while he's such a key piece of the D functioning he doesn't oft have the MVP stats to show for it .. Cody Simon at 7.5-1 is another I'd consider he had MVP worthy games vs Oregon and Indiana with multiple sacks big stops and forced fumbles ..  If the game is not on the line again let's go w the guy that can wreeek the most havoc for the odds we're getting .. think thats TJT .. Local book has these up but must be getting them from somewhere else .. shop around for sure on these wherever they are widely avail .. 

Note that TJT did have a bad ankle late in the game but was taped up and kept going .. I suspect he get's summit fever in the natty and plays right thru any lingering ailments if there are any .. but something to note .. 

PROP DEFENSIVE MVP .. 

D.MVP TJ TUIMOLOAU 7-1
D.MVP CODY SIMON 7.5-1

Horns great job getting the ball out quick and scoring from distance throwing to their RB on those wheel routes .. they also hit their great REC TE on a few plays .. I suspect this will be much tougher with less threatening WR's and we know OSU's RZ D is extremely tough to score on .. I found one for -105 wouldn't be dying to lay over -110 for that .. think there's a risk OSU could be well ahead and maybe see some of the 2nd string D in there which gave up a late score to Tenn ... 

Call it a prop considering the smaller amount ..

NOTRE DAME TT UNDER 17.5

SEMI RECAP / NATTY TALK

PSU sheesh once again able to muck the game up in a way they could pull the win off at the end .. PSU WR's somehow finished with negative 3 yds and Allar just had nowhere to go .. we knew their WR's weren't very good and wallah and Allar didn't help them at all with his arm .. T.WAR looked like a total VIKING out there just mauling little kids with a battle axe .. we had a few chances to get the 'any TD' but allar short armed one into triple coverage lol and all those other plays with him lining up in Wildcat never really got there .. t'was the right idea though there were only so many ways they coulda scored he was the only non RB option .. also knew PSU would find themselves in situations where PSU would need a first down and Allar would have nobody to throw to and have to tuck it, even w a couple sacks that one landed easy enough .. 

Can't take anything away from ND's win we figured they'd be on the ropes and 'off a beat' in this game and you saw it first half PSU's ground attack gashing em and run D playing tough, pressure getting to leonard .. the 'dinged up' team seemingly getting more and more injured / Reilly heading to the concussion tent .. but holy smokes did they snap out of it literally on the final H1 drive when Leonard went out and came out firing in H2 .. they got the HEART OF A CHAMPION AWARD locked up .. 

OSU I thought had such a massive offensive drought with much of it from penalty killing drives .. the personal foul and various others .. then a pick then got stopped on 3rd n short .. a MAJOR problem all year for them I show them being in 3rd and 1-3 yard situations at one of the highest rates over 4 times / game and under 50% conversions .. thus this situation alone basically kills 2 drives per game if they don't roll the dice on 4th down .. Bucks MUST have an answer in this game to punching short yardage esp near the goal line .. Texas' D still did play a very solid game they play zone coverage and the big passees early from Howard were absolute precision bombs a split second later they're broken up or worse .. that didn't last all game and Horns covered up J-SMITH pretty well and had a really good pass rush, held bucks run game down decently well .. 

OSU DL is beyond championship level ELITE triple diamond platinum status and controlled the whole game on that side .. bringing pressure made things very very tough for Ewers and while he probably gets run outta town his gamer ability gave them the only chance they had .. they had success getting the ball out early and solid WR's helps with that .. Leonard doesn't quite have that and he's gotta be gamer level 1000 this week and kinda do it all to get them down the field again .. Huge for Horns to have had the TD's come outside the redzone as Bucks RZ D is almost unbeatable and struck big once again from the 1 yd line .. this seems like another potential problem for ND if they are dinkin n dunkin and think you'll see them basically take their shots on goal from distance in this gm and w kicker proven reliable in the playoffs maybe we see them opt for FG's with the game in the balance .. 

SEMI'S .. EESH .. PSU .. HOW .. 

SEMI FINAL
PENN STATE +1.5 
PENN STATE -7.5  in-gm .. why did i do that .. 

SEMI PROPS
Q.WISNER U69.5 RUSH YDS 
D.ALLAR OVER 11.5 RUSH -112 
Q.EWERS U242.5 PASS YDS 
T.WARREN ANY TD -105 

@robtri

 Eh well that guy healthy wasn't the problem .. Drew Allar healthy was the problem .. EESH .. 

IN-GM

PENN STATE -7.5

Halftime live line -7.5 .. see notes above really felt like ND might be in a tough spot here with PSU off easy lead in and ND off B2B max efforts and quirky schedule .. we're seeing the team that was dinged up already kinda falling apart .. eh fine .. I hit this -2.5 earlier and eh why not taking -7.5 and let's go .. quick stop and FEED THE VIKING for a score and think its reallly tough for ND to catch up .. 

Not much offense .. PSU gotta keep feeding VIKING the ball .. esp maybe around the goal line where its been a little tricky for em to get a friggin yard .. and maybe let Allar run for like 7 more yards!!! they do that they win this easy lol 

PROPS

T.WARREN ANY TD -105 (FAN)

D.ALLAR OVER 11.5 RUSH -112 (FAN)

Tyler Warren unstoppable and the GO TO guy anytime they get near a TD .. we saw Drew Allar vs very good OSU D get sacked a few times but running the ball was a big part of the game .. ended 10 att's including the sacks but ended up +30 yards .. little more stability back there and we might get this much easier .. Def expect PSU to use all the tools in the belt here and Drew's ground game is one they will need picking up first downs .. good luck!

Like those and nice to see we ended up a step ahead when we posted this play PSU now the fav .. for now .. gulp lol .. LET'S GOOO!

SEMI FINAL
PENN STATE +1.5