Raiders22

@artdb

 Very good points.  I agree.  
Most people completely misunderstand that time period and the causes and what extended and worsened the Depression.  
We will have to see if enough people and politicians will have the fortitude to allow Trump to continue on.  We know Trump has the fortitude.  The question is how the much pushback he will get.  He only has a very limited time to implement his plan before the midterms.  That is why he has accelerated it. 
I normally have a tight stop limit on the stocks I get that are not buy-and-hold stocks.  I did not put one on my F, so I am riding it out.  I think when the dust settles it will still be on the path we thought it would be on. 

Stars really collapsed late.  Did not think the 3rd period would go like that. 

 442-412   +2745

TB O6 -103

SJ +1.5 -103

ANA U6 -109

@BigGame90

 It is not that they only go up.  
No one can really time the market beneficially.  
You will always come out ahead if you just stay in.  
You will also come out even further ahead if you add more and continue DCA in when it is down.  
It is a huge difference.  
This is mainly because just a few days each year make up the majority of the profits.  These are the days you cannot afford to miss out on if you are trying to time the market. 
Not to mention any dividends and reinvesting you might miss out on or any tax hits you will have to take. 
The bottom line is that the market has always bounced back and the longterm trend is always up.  
It is not about timing the market but time in the market.  

@kcblitzkrieg

It is so weird to me that it is a ‘bad’ word.  What they say now is ‘slow’.  How soon before that becomes a bad word.  
You can’t call people fat or short, etc.  
So any euphemisms that you use for ‘retard’ is going to be just the same.  Those words are just not deemed ‘bad’ yet.  

BOL 

@Gainsford

Sorry just saw this.  Been busy all day. 
Yeah, I think Stars game could be low scoring.  I feel like the Stars might do all of the scoring. 
So, could not see a way to play the total. 

@kcblitzkrieg

 Cash is king and I'm waiting patiently. 

Aren’t you too young for cash to be king?Patiently waiting on what?

Hard to go wrong with most things.  Everything is pretty much on sale.

Individual stocks I have picked up or are looking at vary.

Some of them I think will bounce back besides the normal S&P type stuff:

PLTR

SOFI

WBA

NVDA

UBER

HON

MRK

DDM
IRM
MRK

GOOGL

BBAI

IONQ

RGTI

AMD

SOUN

GRAB

SMCI

OILU

TQQQ

SOXL
SMH

SPXL

@yanks21x

 435-409    +2319

BUF +1.5 -156

BUF O6 -119

BUF TT O2.5 -121

MON -123

MON TT O3.5 +135

BOS TT U2.5 -165

1.5U CLB +109

.5U CLB -1.5 +268

CLB TT O2.5 -151

DAL in Reg -123

@kcblitzkrieg

 10 year already down to 3.5 

They had been levered up a good bit.  
Then with the Bessent strategy under the CR it actually created a shortage of the 10 year.  Then the HFs bid them up because they needed them for their leverage.  
People sometimes fail to realize that they manage their portfolios by duration and not by yield like the normal folks do.  
So, now it looks like there was no rush to safety.  
People keyed in on the tariffs (which for sure is a huge concern) but it was more about a rebalancing.  So, once the leverage starts to kick in and they are calling for more margin and there was a lot of liquidating going on.  
So, this weekend we talked about the next day would be all about deleveraging — that would be Monday.  
So, if you are deleveraging what can you then sell?  You can sell your 10 years — because you do not need them anymore.  Especially once the algorithms kick in and tell them they have reached a certain price and point in the duration and it is no longer worthwhile to hold that position. 

Today was simply the market delevering.  

We were talking this weekend and folks were asking about a ‘Black Monday’.  I told them that the short bonds do not seem to be under stress.  They may be, but we really do not see it.  
If the short end of the debt market is okay, then it is rebalancing and delevering.  
For sure, the deleveraging could lead to a credit event.  
Right now it simply does seem like it, considering the way the bonds and the treasuries are trading.   But time will tell.

@yanks21x

 You will be fine.  I do not know your timeframe to retirement.  But if you are diversified and have a lot of it in a S&P 500 type fund, it will be fine. 
Go back and look at how much the market dropped from its 2021 high to its low in 2022.  It dropped more percentage-wise then and then bounced back.  
Look at the 2019-2020 Pandemic crash. It bounced back. 

Too many people get worried in a down market and sell and go to cash or move to safer investments.  I never recommend folks do this.  

If you do you will fall further behind the folks that just ride it out.  You will also fall even further behind the folks that double down and buy more when it dips. Since you cannot buy more, just ride it out.  

As you get closer to retirement you can look to move larger portions into safer things.  

If you are young there is no need to watch your investments on a daily basis; it will just frustrate you.  

The big money is made on just a very, very few days a year — and you do not want to take a chance on missing those days.  

If you do not need the money anytime soon, it is not really a loss — because you have not sold yet.  

Things will be fine longterm. I would only look closely at it if I were you 3-4 times a year.  Just to make sure you are balanced correctly for your age and goals. 

BOL  

2021 high 36488

2022 low 28725

-7763

-21.3%

Should have been 2021 high and 2022 low

2021 high 36488

2002 low 28725

-7763

-21.3%