acesup23

titans +6 and titans ML

imo if anything the under is the play here

as far as sides go, its either utah or no play

isn't dolphins/cardinals under a play?

if winning at a 63% clip is failure then i never want to succeed

i have towson +20.5 at my book

for those saying to tweak the system this is my two cents..hindsight is 20/20 and you can be the monday morning QB all you want, but njporky has a system here that has been profitable for years.

in other words, let the pork man do his thang..either ride the gravy train or don't

troy was up 24-7 at the half..

can someone explain to me how northwestern was not a 2H play? i saw a 13 pt differential, but its not on the spreadsheet....

someone may have asked this already so i apologize if they did, but why wasn't northwestern 2H -5.5 a play?

Halftime Score was 20-0 Northwestern
Line for the Game was -12.5 Northwestern
2H line should have been Northwestern +7.5
2H line was Northwestern -5.5

that is a 13 point differential

i agree, it could even be a 42-7 game and both would still hit.

i'm on BYU -27 and u49.5

BOL

i'm wondering the same exact thing.. usually that type of movement would say to take the under, but does a drop in the line mean this game is going to be a close one and BYU won't cover? or maybe we're just thinking too much into it

i'm seeing roughly ~70% of the public on the over yet the line dropped from 50.5 to 49.5 at most books

weaver has a poor history in texas and dempster's been rocked for 13 runs in 8 IP vs the angels this year.

that being said it's tough to take the over when there are two pitchers on the mound who both have the potential to spin gems on any given night.  i'd say no play

Cubs ML

ian kennedy vs. cubs this year-->7.34 ERA (in 2 starts, 11 ER in 9.1 IP)

only question is whether he's due for a good game against them or do they have his number?

dickey has a lower ERA, lower WHIP, more IP, more K's and he got 20 wins pitching for the muts. if he pitched for the nats this year he might've won 25 games

close call but gotta go with dickey over gio

**Correction: Jaguars is not a play

so i found this "nfl bible" at https://killersports.com/sdb.py/home?sid=guest which basically gives a bunch of crazy trends for each team. i decided to see how their trends hold up for this nfl season

i started in week 2 and so thus far betting on the trends has produced a record of 13-6-1 +6.4 units

basically after the week is over i go through team by team and see if there are any applicable trends for the next week. if there are conflicting trends between two teams playing each other there is no play.

my theory: all trends used are undefeated and there is a solid chance that playing them for a whole season will yield a 55% win rate. if it makes 3 units on the whole season, then well that is 3 more than i had when i started and if it starts tanking i will stop playing it.

all i know is +6.4 units through weeks 2 and 3 is more than most people can say they made

disclaimers:
1- i am not claiming this is a genius system, i'm actually expecting it to lose because of how random, stupid and irrelevant some of the trends are
2- i am brainlessly posting the plays, they are not my personal plays. in fact some of personal plays are different than these. theres is absolutely no thought put into these plays, so please spare me the criticism. i know that if the 'Patriots are 10-0 ATS following a tuesday when tom brady's mom made lasagna and his wife had her period' has nothing to do with sunday's game. believe me i know. 

Week 4

Ravens -12

The Ravens are 10-0 ATS (+11.3 ppg) since 2008 when they are off a game in which they allowed 24+ pts and the game went over the total by double-digits.

Vikings ATS (fade on the Lions)

The Lions are 0-13 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since 1997 when they are off a game in which they had 32+ minutes of possession time and recorded fewer than 2 sacks.

The Lions are 0-11 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since January 2005 when they are off any game as a 4+ point favorite.

Falcons -7

The Falcons are 10-0 ATS (+7.2 ppg) since November 17, 2002 as a favorite when they committed fewer turnovers than their opponent in each of their last 3 games.

49ers -4

The 49ers are 12-0 ATS (+13.7 ppg) since November 2008 when they are off a Sunday road game in which they allowed more than 21 points

Texans -12 (fade on the Titans)

The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since December 2004 when they passed for 300+ yards in their last game.

Raiders +6.5

The Raiders are 9-0 ATS (+17.6 ppg) since 2009 as a road dog vs. a divisional opponent, going 8-1 SU in these games.

The Broncos are 0-19 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since January 15th, 2006 as a home favorite vs a team that does not have more wins on the season when they are off a game in which they had more first downs than third down attempts.

Jaguars +2

The Jaguars are 9-0 ATS (+13.1 ppg) since 2005 after November when they are off a road cover.

Saints +7.5 (fade on Packers)

The Packers are 0-11 ATS (-9.5 ppg) when they are off a road loss in which they committed at least 3 more penalties than their season to date average.

Dolphins +6.5 (fade on Cardinals)

The league is 0-18 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since 1999 at home in September when they are off two wins in which they threw zero interceptions.

Bucs/Redskins O47

The Buccaneers are 9-0 OU (+16.4 ppg) since December 23rd, 2001 when they are off a game in which their defense recorded 3+ sacks, but their offense scored at least 7 points fewer than expected

Broncos/Raiders O48.5

The Broncos are 13-0 OU (14.4 ppg) since 2005 as a favorite the week after a SU loss as a dog.

Rams/Seahawks O38

The Rams are 11-0 OU (+8.3 ppg) since 1998 at home in September vs a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 3.75 yards per rush on the season.

Lions/Vikings Under (only if Lions are favorites)

The Lions are 0-9 OU (-14.4 ppg) since 1989 as a favorite on artificial turf the week after a SU loss as a favorite.

Texans/Titans U45

The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since December 2004 when they passed for 300+ yards in their last game.

The Titans are 0-9 OU (-12.7 ppg) since 2005 on the road when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.

63.5 on 5dimes

eazyfbaby where did you see it at 44.5?