alncats

Last Week 2-4  Season 11-13

NAVY -1. Talent level is close. Navy has played the much tougher schedule. I'll take the home team independent vs a team that concentrates on conference games.

IDAHO +4. I don't know why Idaho is the dog here. Idaho has played at least as well as LT and is at home in a home dominated series.

UL MONROE +2.5. Can't see ULM as a dog here. They played well in 3 unwinable games and are coming off a by week. 2nd consecutive road game for Arkansas St.

Last week 1-1  Season 5-5

ST. LOUIS +3. This looks like a good spot for the Rams. Wash in back to back road games off a div game on Mon night. Rams need this one more than the Skins.

MINNESOTA -2.5. At least the Vikes play half a game. The Chiefs have shown no form of life. Lats week was more SD playing down to their opponent.

PITTSBURGH +3.5 Houston defense exposed last week. Pitt has shaken off first week loss and is playing grind em up Steeler football.

NY GIANTS -1.5 Tough road game but the Giants are much the better team on both sides of the ball.

ATLANTA -4.5 Seattle got a win last week. They won't win back to back games all season nor will Atlanta lose two in a row.

Teaser: CHICAGO with NEW ENGLAND 

Last week 3-1  Season 9-9

RUTGERS +1.5. Syracuse(3-1) should be 1-3. They are getting the breaks but I don't think that they are a "team of destiny". Rutgers is the better team here.

CONNECTICUT -3. Both teams 2-2. It seems that UConn is improving. 2nd road game in row for W. Mich. Could be a flat spot for W.Mich as they start conference play next week.

COLORADO -3. Wash St. banged up and in the middle of a 3 game road trip. Similar talent level. More important game for the home team.

OHIO ST. -3. Ohio St. still has some suspensions this week. Still Ohio St. has owned Mich St. Both teams have lost their only tough games. Take the home team laying a small number with history on it's side.

COLORADO ST. -3. Col St 3-1, San Jose St. 1-3. Col St. has won the last 3 in the series. I will take the better team laying a short price.

KANSAS ST. +3.5. Baylor is much improved as was expected and the public is on them. Kansas St. is also very improved which was less expected. I will take the underdog that is flying under the radar. 

Last week 2-4  Season 4-4

NEW ORLEANS -4. New Orleans has played the much tougher schedule. Houston's "much improved defence" will finally face a tough test. New Orleans is the proven team here. It is always tough to win ack to back on the road and Houston won't do it.

ATLANTA +1.5. Before opening with Chicago, no one would have made Atlanta the underdog vs Philadelphia last week or Tampa Bay this week. The loss vs a good Chicago home team has not changed my opinion. Atlanta is much the better team here and I see an easy win. 

Last week 2-4  Season 6-8

Friday: BYU -2 Both sides coming off of upsets with BYU having the worse loss. BYU needs to start winning now to salvage the season as they do not have a conference schedule. UCF can still do well in their league. Tough trip for UCF and BYU needs it more.

Saturday: RUTGERS -4. Ohio has played well thus far but is stepping up in class. They are in a tough spot here after getting revenge last week and starting their conference schedule next week with another revenge game. Rutgers had last week off and should be able to cover the small number at home.

OKLAHOMA ST +4.5. OK ST has played the tougher schedule thus far and has looked to be a very good team this season. OK ST has won the last 3 in this series and even in prior years these two usually play a very close game. Take the points.

USC +2.5. Arizona St has yet to cover a game this season. USC played their first complete game last week. USC has won the last 5 times win visiting Arizona St. USC is far healthier than Arizona St. and will win this game.

Last week 2-0

MINNESOTA -3 I got +1.12. Both Minn and TB looking to bounce back after poor games last week. Difference is that TB lost at home while Minny had a tough trip out west.

INDIANAPOLIS +2. Cleveland has to prove that they should be a road favorite. Early turnovers led to the game getting away from Indy last week. Should get a better effort here.

MIAMI +3 Houston has not been a good road team. Miami should get the same type of offensive play they showed vs NE.

ATLANTA +2.5 Atlanta great at home.

WASHINGTON -3.5 Might see the line close at 3. Washington has no bad seaknesses or great streangths. Arizona has glaring weaknesses on defense. Arizona does not travel to the east coast well.

Teaser: NEW ORLEANS -.5 with NY JETS -2.5.

Last week 1-3   Season 4-4

Week 3 so we know much more about the teams so we can feel comfortable with a few more plays.

Friday: CONNECTICUT -4. We lost last week with UCON but they had their chances and I think it was the right side. Iowa St. comes off of two instate rivalry games and an upset over Iowa. This is their first road game of the season and a clear let down situation.

Saturday: IOWA -3. Iowa looks to rebound after being upset last week. Pitt is stepping up in class after winning but failing to cover vs Buffalo and Maine. Also the first road game of the year for Pitt.

MISSISSIPPI -1.5. Opponent Vanderbilt won their first two games of the season, although a little lucky last week. I don't think that they will be going undefeated after going 2-10 last season. This looks like a good spot for Vandy to let down and I think that Miss will be focused in a revenge game and easily cover the small number.

MINNESOTA -5. Opponent Miami Ohio is one of the better MAC teams but the MAC is not on par with the Big 10. The bottom of the Big 10 and the top of the MAC is probably a good matchup. The edge goes to Miny who I think will have the motivational edge and win one for their ailling coach Kill.

MICHIGAN ST. +4.5. Usually a close game between these two. I am taking the probable better team with points.

KENTUCKY -5.5. Kentucky has dominated this series of late winning 4 straight. Kentucky has started 2-0. It will be important to win this game as the next 3 are vs the cream of the SEC. But if they win here to go 3-0 they will be in an excellent position to get to a good bowl game even if they lose the next 3 as is expected. The remainder of their schedule is favorable.

BUFFALO +6    Similar talent level with KC. Could win outright. Nice play with the points.

Teaser: ARIZONA -1 with SAN DIEGO -2.5   Ths is a basic strategy teaser. Teasing a home team fav below 3 is a proven long time winner.

In my week 1 post (3-1), I noted that Georgia could be looking ahead to this weeks South Carolina game. It seems that South Carolina was also looking ahead. The difference is that the Ole Ball Coach, set his team right at half time.

Lost with Wake Forest +6.5. WF dominated the game until their QB got hurt. The back up threw an int that set up Syracuse's tying TD. They were able to go for the 2pt conversion because WF missed an xpt earlier. Then the Orange set up for a chip shot FG to win the game and give WF the cover but it was blocked. Wake Forest was clearly the right side. There will be a few more beats like this. And I will win a few like that also. On to Saturday.

Mississippi +3 over BYU. I rate Miss as the better team so at home getting points this is a play I like. Both teams are coming off disapointing years and I look for both to have much better seasons. I especially look for a much improved defense for Miss. BYU has a tough early schedule with this trip to Miss and a game at Texas next week. The Rebels have five starters back on th O line and I expect them to be able to where down BYU with a punishing run game in a hot humid afternoon game.

Boise St. -3 over Georgia. I make Boise St 7 points better than Georgia. The Bulldogs had a down year and are expected to bounce back. But they only won 7 games two seasons ago so the 6 wins of last year may be more of a trend than a blip. Georgia has South Carolina next week which is probably their biggest game of the year. They need to win that game the division and it is a revenge game. Boise St has a by next week. Boise has also been involved in this kind of early season marque matchup  recently with a win over Oregon two years ago and a win over Virginia Tech last year.

LSU +4 over Oregon. These teams are about as even as they come. So taking 4 points with a semi home field is the way to go. Each team has well known contriversies and suspensions. I think that we have two of the top coaches who will be able to deal with the distractions and both teams will play true to form. I look for a very close game.

Week #1

Thursday: Wake Forest +6.5 over Syracuse

I have WF as the better team in my preseason power ratings even after the home field adjustment. Syracuse really does not have as much of a home field advantage as some other teams do.

This game is an example of the type of matchup that I look for in the early part of the season. WF had a down year from its recent form. They have a good coach in Jim Grobe who has been able to improve them after other poor seasons. Syracuse over achieved last season. They do have a good coach in Doug Marrone. I look for a regression to the mean for both teams.

A little discussion on betting lines. The concensus on the Wafe Forest/Syracuse game is now 6. I could have gotten +7 but I was a little slow on the trigger. It is up to you if you want to take the 6 or not but I played at +6.5. I think that there is value since I do believe that WF is the better team. If there is a game where you can get say +3.5 but you are a little late and the number is now +3 then you have to really consider if you still want to play it or not. If the number falls to +2.5 then it probably is no longer a play.

Saturday's plays will be posted late Thursday night.

Good Luck