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Hey Vet!
I personally can’t overlook Vino’s 2 bad at TB Downs. Plus i think Enticed who he beat in the Wood stinks. Enticed is only even in the field because he won a 1 turn mile race at AQU, it’s ridiculous that a 1 turn race even has Derby points attached to it. My Top 5 pending post draw: Magnum Moon- really like him, he’s versatile and widens his margin of victory in all 4 of his races. Audible- love him as well as an extra gear when he hits the top of the stretch. Also a versatile runner Justify- this is more a fear selection. I think the Santa Anita Derby was a joke. I think Bolt is going the wrong way. But I’d probably be a fool to disregard Baffert. Good Magic- hammered in the BC Juve but I really don’t think he’s fast enough to beat the best horses in this field. Also think the Blue Grass was an average race. But i do think he is very likely to hit the board. Hofburg- this guy looks great! His work this morning was outstanding and the fact that Mott has him here is noteworthy. Mott hasn’t had a Derby starter since 09. He may not be ready just yet but imo he’s live.
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vetdrm | 41 |
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0-39? Wow!! Regarding Abel Tasman I’m more concerned about her not being able to settle in her last 2 races. Those moves she made in the Alabama and Cotilion won’t fly against this field. Didn’t fly in The Cotillion and it could be argued that she could’ve been DQ’ed at Saratoga. Mike Smiths BC speaks for itself but so does Bill Mott’s record in the Distaff, I’m rolling with Elate for better or worse in the Distaff. GL guys
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vetdrm | 19 |
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My P4 will consist of spreading in the turf races, 4 deep in the Dirt Mile and singling Elate. Her last 3 races were 9F-10F-9F and she seems to just be getting better
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vetdrm | 19 |
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Paradise Woods is not lone speed, Champagne Room will be out there too may even beat PW to the front being on the rail. Stellar Wind will also be very close. PW is a headcase and needs things her own way to win, she’ll get no easy trip here and Union Rags horses don’t thrive at longer distances. She’s never raced 9F and her last race was a joke of a prep. I’d tread lightly with her Vet. GL
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vetdrm | 19 |
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giant_causeway | 7 |
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Wow this new forum is awful I can’t even share links. Sorry |
giant_causeway | 7 |
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Here |
giant_causeway | 7 |
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Del mar isn’t a track I’m super familiar with and I’m also unsure of it’s tendencies or biases. The dirt track is only 3 years old. Here’s an article with a little insight.
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giant_causeway | 7 |
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Epicharis wasn't winning the Belmont if he lined up neither was Classic Empire. Tapwrit was winning that race regardless his odds just would've been a lot better if those 2 lined up.
As far as the Classic goes if Arrogate is there he wins.
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TigerTy | 6 |
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Yea it's all over twitter, sucks now all odds will be down even horses you may have liked at what you thought would be big prices.
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Tygermyke | 3 |
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Tonalist and Creator
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mikeyp1 | 63 |
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2
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mikeyp1 | 63 |
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Mikey i can assure you if Epicharis wins it will definitely be at my expense. Looking forward to your write up!
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mikeyp1 | 63 |
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Patch is by a Belmont winner and his dam sire is also a Belmont winner he's also likely to be forwardly placed which is a plus. I don't know if he's good enough though and Calumet Farm just tries to line them up in these bug races so it's hard to know if Pletcher would have Patch in this spot or if it's Calumet's call. But you certainly could do worse then Johnny V and TP in the Belmont at what should be a price
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mikeyp1 | 63 |
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Twisted Tom is interesting and has a lot of Belmont winners or their foals in his pedigree. Big time connections though wonder what his post time odds will be. GL
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mikeyp1 | 63 |
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Epicharis has only run in Japan and Dubai, the horse that beat him in the UAE Derby went to Louisville and danced out of the gate, went back to Europe and didn't win his next race either. 3rd place finisher in the UAE was Master Plan, his next NA start was the Peter Pan and he got trounced. So IMO to think Epicharis can get to Belmont a week out and be ready to fire big enough to win under a jockey who knows nothing of the track and will likely only have 1 mount that day is an awful big ask. But you're not the only person I've seen with this opinion so GL to you on you're wagers.
I personally like Meantime and Tapwrit, will likely also use Gormley and IWC in my P4s. IWC is a total puzzle instead of trying to figure I'll likely just use him |
mikeyp1 | 63 |
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With the defection of Conquest Mo Money and the scratch of True Timber(fever) Meantime is now the controlling speed of this race. We know CE can't really press him and keep him honest because he won't last, to that point neither can Irish War Cry if they decide he runs. Mike Smith maybe able to walk thru opening fractions, this race produces strange results and i think Meantime is sitting on a monster race here especially with how the pace projects at this point.
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mikeyp1 | 63 |
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Everyone is aware that Lookin at Lee has ZERO wins at 2 turns and is 0 for his last 9.
Playing him in the Derby is one thing at 33-1 but playing him in the Belmont at odds that are likely to be 6-1 or under is really a bad wager, whether he wins or not. |
mikeyp1 | 63 |
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Mike Smith has the mount on Meantime, I absolutely love this!
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mikeyp1 | 63 |
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For LAL and CE this will be 4 races in 8 weeks, hard to imagine them being ready for a top effort especially at 12 Furlongs. CE has the class to hang around but I don't think he wins. I like the way Tapwrit finished up the Derby after a rough start, he's fresh and when Pletcher points horses to the Belmont they usually fire.
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mikeyp1 | 63 |
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