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Double - much appreciate the time. Was at a wedding when Baylor 1h hit for me last week. Didn't watch what happened 2nd half. Did Matt Rhule try to just run and be physical? Straight Vanilla? Wanna play Baylor 2 units this week, see you like 'em. So do I. talk me into a larger wager |
DoubleUp4Life | 195 |
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Usually just stop looking when I find a play - frankly, they are kinda rare this time of year. But three more fit my criteria 1. Tempo. 57 possessions projected 2. Spot. VA has CAL, Xmas, Lousiville. Are we gonna get full effort? I know Bennett is a great coach, but covering 32 in 57 possessions? Gotta play focused to pull that off. 3. Robert Morris, on TV, plays hard, and can play enough D to keep this under the 31.5 Play on: Robert Morris +31.5 Cal is pretty good, but they don't cover today. Here's why.. 1. Tempo. looking at 64 possessions, and Cal Poly is especially slow. 2. Spot. Cal with VA on deck. classic look ahead spot, coming off easy win vs UC Davis. 3. Cal Poly can shoot the three. Play on: Cal Poly +19.5 Wagner, who beat Uconn earlier, covers against another solid team, Providence today. Here's why... 1. Tempo. 60 possessions 2. Spot. Providence in the middle of a long homestand. Just won a close ne against Umass, and don't have another tough game until after Xmas. Wagner gets on national TV tppday as FOXsports is covering the game. 3. Wagner can compete on the boards, and guard the three, a big part of Prov game plan, decently. Play on: Wagner +13.5 GL
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BandosWB | 1 |
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But like them to cover today. Here's why...
1. Tempo. UM is snails pace. KP has this sucker at 61 possessions. Again, you have to be super efficient to cover 27. Let's say UM scores 1.2 points per possession (above their 1.14 avg), in 61 possessions that is 73 points. Lets say they hold MD ES to .8 points per possession( Below their .97 avg considerably) that is 49 points. A cover. Can it be done? Sure, Michigan did it last game, shooting a ridiculous 77% from the field and 42% from 3, to go along 78% from the stripe. 1.43 Offensive efficiency, held C Ark to .78. Will they do it today? Betting they won't. Here's why... 2. Spot. UM was coming off a tough, embarrassing loss to UCLA. Poor C Ark was the recipient of a focused, angry Michigan team who could name their score, and did. Now they are in the middle of a homestand, two cupcakes to play before Xmas. Where is the motivation? MD E shore - first lined game of season, on Big Ten network, so all their friends and family can watch. Start of a road trip for them - as fresh and motivated as a team with one win (against something called Central Penn) can be. 3. They can shoot the three. 35%, UM allows close to 40%. 4. They should not turn the ball over too much. Play on: Maryland Eastern Shore +27 GL
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BandosWB | 1 |
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But we won, jaj
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BandosWB | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Stryc9Nine: How the hell did Florida Atlantic beat Ohio St at Ohio St? Only game I saw them was against Hawaii and they suck. People will take Florida Atlantic today because they beat Ohio St but I think they get blown out by Miami. Pass for me. Quite possible, it Miami comes to play, they can cover. Do they come to play? |
BandosWB | 8 |
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But I like them getting 21 tonight. Why?
1. Same state, little brother - see FAU fired up to play D. 2. FAU beat OhSt, could be a letdown...but it was 10 days ago, and I see it more as building confidence that they can hang 3. They can shoot the three 4. Tempo is going to be relatively slow...always hard to cover big numbers in only 66 possessions. You have to be WAY more efficient than your opponent 5. Miami off three easy wins, last game was at home. A tough(er) contest with GW coming up. Don't think we get best effort here so their advantage on D and in rebounding may not be as great, as those aspects are mostly about effort The Play: FAU +21 GL
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BandosWB | 8 |
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But I think they are a good play today. Why?
1. Tempo. It's hard to cover 26.5 when you play at a snails pace 2. Chicago St is in same city as NW, they should play hard, despite being terrible 3. Chicago St can shoot the three a little bit. 4. NW has Dayton on deck, after a blowout win vs NO, and 4 wins in a row. Focus for a crappy team? Think they may have been getting ready for a meaningful game with NCAA implications three days away. Are there concerns - of course. NW covered vs NO who also plays at a snails pace. NW could, if they really wanted to, name the score. But it's never quite that easy. Looks like a good spot to cover a huge number for crappy Chicago State. Play on: Chicago State +26.5 |
BandosWB | 1 |
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Liking that UCF play.
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TD21 | 38 |
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BA - as always
You mentioned Arkansas State twice in this thread; as a team to bet on, and that they maybe roll. As the matchup is a virtual true road game against UCF, do you still hold that opinion? Focus: seems like a wash. Ark St got blown out last year by La Tech which fits your criteria, but UCF was 0-12 LY, and now gets a home bowl game. Lost last 2 to good teams in Tulsa and USF, eventually seems like that solid D got tired, but now they get a long break?! Coaches: Seems like a wash as well. Both good ones IMO. Conf strength: Not even close. Neither is SOS overall. UCF has played the much harder schedule, and plays in a much more difficult conference. Look at Arkansas States wins - eek, cept for the Troy win (5-0 turnovers) No Common Oppponets Distractions: Havent heard of anyone looking at Frost, nor BA. INJ/SUSP: UCF seems a bit healthier at this point Crowd: Its in Orlando, in the stadium that used to be there home stadium (granted they stopped playing there in 2006), but you would have to assume a huge HF advantage. Match-up: Both play really good D on paper. UCF offense has been pretty bad all year, but do tend to get TO and FP to push a few in. Arky St must pass effectively to move the ball. Not so easy vs. UCF (#12) Line: right on the metrics. UCF -6 is the right line. Due to SOS, CONF strength, and Crowd, I am leaning UCF in this one. What did I miss, or misread? GL with the bowls
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bookieassassin | 328 |
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Vegas line is best predictor. So Bama is 15 over UW. What would they be over PSU - close to that, no? And while I have no love for Michigan, that line would be under a TD By just about any metric you want to use, Michigan is one of the top 4 teams in the country.
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Boom_Boom | 137 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Meathook13: Can somebody confirm that Purdue likes to turn the ball over a bunch and Louisville thrives on getting turnovers at home??? I like Louisville in that case. This is why I like them tonight |
LICappers | 13 |
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Thanks for advice.
Any word?
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BandosWB | 2 |
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Missed L2 with concussion, says he feels great from what I have been able to find.
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BandosWB | 2 |
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TD21 | 32 |
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Just posted my agreement on this. Good info - keep it coming.
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seanyru44 | 3 |
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Week 1, 2nd game SDst +11@ Gonzaga, KP -6 Don’t understand the line move, save Aztecs getting to an 18 pt lead and then cruising to an ATS loss. They look the same, but with better shooting this year. Zags destroyed Utah Valley from the tip on. Blue Ribbon has them 14. KP 28th. Look loaded and deep, but a lot of new faces. If SD st can slow the game down a bit, as they do, I see them hanging around in this one. Kinda pissed at the midnight tip as I’ll be long asleep. Loyola Marymount @ Nevada-10, KP -9, opens at 8, bet to 10 Two teams Blue Ribbon is high on improving this year. Nevada one more returning starter. LYM off a win against something called Vanguard, but it was pretty sloppy despite the score. Lots of turnovers and offensive boards allowed (vanguard went 3-24 from behind the arc). Nevada got rolled by St. Mary’s in a game I watched some of before falling asleep. Few impressions except St. Marys was pretty good. Nevada off a loss, coming home, Loyola off easy, sloppy win. Seems likely that Nevada had the better days of practice. Faded them last time out, like em a little this time. Wyoming @ Montana-6, KP -5, opened -4.5, now -5.5 Wyoming returns 4 starters, but they aren’t that good, and they lose PG Adams, who was there only real player last year. Blue ribbon down on them as well. Only shooting saved them from a loss to Western as they only managed +1 Offensive board/turnover. Montana loses a big cog, but recruited well according to Blue ribbon. WY off an easy win, Montana hung with USC for a while, before losing SU ATS. Montana returns 4. Think they get the win and cover at home. Bonus Play: Princeton +4 @ BYU Always take a look at BYU home games - they have been very good to me. But this is such a contrast - BYU super inexperienced, Princeton, 1 win away from tourney last year, returns all 5 and 7 players are seniors. Tough to pass up BYU at such a small number at home, against an IVY school, but you have to like the experience difference here. |
BandosWB | 8 |
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Hard to not fade the Ducks at this point. Watched the first half of that game. Looked like a lot of quit. Utah with a lot to play for. Looks like that will open around 11 per vegas insider.
Also thinking PSU, USF (maybe TT over again), WMU. I tend to have no feel for TTech, but you seem to. |
bookieassassin | 41 |
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Why no line for NMst @ CSU today
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BandosWB | 8 |
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4 wins: USA and Utah St win outright, Aztecs stop caring up 18, only wins by 10, St. Mary's pulls away.
2 Losses: New Mexico wakes up to late, only wins by 11, Fresno never sniff a cover.
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BandosWB | 8 |
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Urban - think you should reconsider USF TT OVER 38
Only teams to hold USF UNDER 38: Temple, FSU - and they still got into the 30's. Memphis D not as good as either of those. Only three really good offenses they have faced, they surrendered 59, 42,48, and USF is likely as better than Navy and Tulsa, on par with a healthy Ole Miss. USF and Memphis are both up tempo teams. USF with 7th ranked rushing offense against 92nd ranked rush D. Memphis could win by outscoring them, but USF gets 40+ here. |
BandosWB | 33 |
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