BigDBets

Off a good day 3-1 all double bets! Clips almost made it 4-0. ran out of steam

YTD: 35-31 +4.6 units 

Rockets -3 2U: First easy game of the season for the rockets, and man do they ever need it! This bad start isn't a fluke. Badly missing the perimeter defense they let walk and Melo has been terrible. If there's ever a time to get right, its against the nets. Look for the rockets to pull a win out here in their last one without Harden! Total gut play. Before the year Rockets would be laying 7+ here even without harden. I'll trust this team is still at least a playoff team and takes care of business against a poor nets team.

Warriors over 238.5: Wolves don't play defense. Warriors light it up. Simple play. Books strugglign to set lines high enough for these teams. I see this as another game in the 250s.

OKC under 231.5: This thunder team is a defensive team by nature. They've began figuring it out, at least situationally. Washington has wanted to run but clearly that pace has not worked for them and I think they'll look to adjust here and we'll get a slow game well short of this total. 

Added a double bet on Blazers -4 as well. Classic revenge spot. Got swept in playoffs. Not saying it was a fluke, but it's a whole new season with teams trying to get back into rhythm. Love the blazers at home and think they blow them out here.

I think a few of these early lines are just blatantly terrible. All 3 bets are double bets. Road teams coming in hot!

Kings -1.5: Fade the hawks in any close spread until future reference. They are the worst team in the nba by a landslide in my opinion. Yes, they will have their hot shooting nights where they win a game or two. Overall their defense is terrible their offense lacks playmakers and they just flat out suck. Kings will continue to be competitive. Long road trip doesn't bother me in the slightest. This kings team is young hungry and energized and they get one more road win here before the wheels fall off against the bucks on sunday.

Nuggets -4.5: Come on man. I know the nuggets have been an incredibly inconsistent and unreliable road team. I know they are coming off a piss poor overtime win against the bulls in the back to back. The only nuggets who played young minutes are in their early 20s and should be totally fine for tomorrow's game. The cavaliers rival the hawks for worst team in the league. If the nuggets show up with half a pulse they blow the doors off here.

Clippers +4.5: Outside of the wheels falling off in the second half against OKC, this Clipper team has been one of the top 5 teams in the league so far in my opinion. I love their defense. I love their ball movement on offense. I love the quality minutes they're getting out of just aobut everyone in the rotation. Meanwhile the sixers suck. Their only wins have come against the hawks cavs hornets and magic, ALL AT HOME. They got badly outplayed by every good team they have faced (Raptors Celtics and Bucks). I think we see a big time bounceback performance in this game for the clippers looking to establish themselves as a playoff threat. Better team getting spotted 2 buckets is always nice. 

Added pelicans +9.5 as well. Too good of a matchup for Davis. Should be high scoring. Hopefully they keep it competitive

Line has creeped down and sounds like Anthony is playing. I wouldn't be concerned.

Added a second unit on nuggets -8 as well as Pistons +125

Really? Same username as on here. @BigDBets

For the most part you're totally right. They haven't been great on the road in recent years. A bulls team missing 3 of their 6 best players just doesn't have the firepower to take advantage

My thoughts: Denver can absolutely light it up. They are happy to run with anyone. Bulls would be a darkhorse playoff team if healthy. However, there's just nothing they can do with Dunn Lauri and Portis all out. The nuggets second unit has been great and bulls are too depleted to compete there. I think this bulls team gets destroyed for the next month or so until they get pieces back. Don't see how you could feel good backing them.

Pacers have honestly looked very good on offense for the most part. Their ball movement and chemistry has been better than expected. I expected some regression from them this year but might not get it. Pacers have blown teams out after their other losses, think we see a similar thing here against an overmatched knicks team.

Nets just have no one to answer against Blake and Drummond. Pistons haven't had a convincing win all season though and they've played some bad teams. Getting the better team as a dog is always nice, but not sure I like this enough to pull the trigger on pistons.

Spurs should crush suns. Suns are already awful and missing booker makes it tough. Still though, Spurs record is a bit fraudulent at the moment with close wins and some blowout losses. Need to see more from spurs to lay this many on road. Need phoenix to show something positive before I can back them at all.

I don't think we can come to any conclusions on either the mavericks or lakers. Both have put together some okay games. Mavericks still dealing with some injuries. Lakers still trying to figure it out. Line seems fair. I won't be on it.

If Anthony Davis plays Pelicans are an easy play here. Golden state can decide to go hard and blow anybody out on any given night, so they're never too fun to fade. However, Davis would be the best player on the floor against some poor big men catching double digit points. Too good to pass up.

also for anyone interested, same name on the bird site I've been crushing my best sport (NFL). The covers nfl community is pretty aids so i generally stay away lol. But I'm 20-2 the last two weeks and up 28 units on the year for anyone interested in following me there.

YTD:31-26 +5.3 units

Pacers -5.5: Pacers have responded very well so far this year after their bad performances. Love the way their offense has looked. Should be motivated and have no issues with a bad knicks team.

Nuggets -7.5: Bulls are just getting hit too hard with the injury bug to be competitive right now. No dunn portis or lauri makes it hard. Nuggets by DDs

Jazz -2.5: Took a heroic effort from jimmy for wolves to beat a decent laker team. They just look awful defensively and clearly are having issues working together. I'll take the jazz on the road here.

Laying all the chalk so far! Hope we keep it rolling after a 6-1 day today with a ton of blowouts

I don't hate it, but 2 units on the game is enough for me. Coulda had a unit on the spread and half on kings

Added 2 units on Clippers under 226: What is this line? These are two fairly slow defensive teams. Clippers numbers are skewed by 3 games against rockets and wizards who play no defense. This is off by 15 points imo.

Rough day. YTD now 25-25 +0.5 units

Grizzlies -2: I was very high on the wizards. Long term, I probably still am. But man until further notice they SUCK. Sometimes teams struggle to shoot the ball or have bad luck with fouls or whatever, but this horrible start is due to absolutely terrible defense and it isn't a fluke and won't fix itself overnight. Meanwhile, a healthy grizzlies team is so far from the tanking garbage last year. They look much more in sync, especially on the defensive end, and they should beat the reeling wizards.

Kings +5 2 units: Don't look now but the kings can ball. Do they have any shot at playoffs? probably not. However, Shumpert has fit in great. Another year for all those young guys has done wonders. The team brings the energy every night. SIGNIFICANTLY better team than orlando. Not worried about the back to back (again the roster so young). 

Hornets -4.5: I don't like what I've seen from Miami. I think Spoelstra is too hell bent on playing at a blistering pace with the rest of the league when that just isn't what they are equipped to do. Until they start slowing it down I find it hard to back them. Especially on the back to back. Hornets are kings of closes losses but are a totally solid team and have played better than their record shows. Think we see a double digit home win here.

OKC -2.5: Let me preface this by saying, from what we've seen, this is the absolute wrong side of this game. The clippers have honestly looked like a legit playoff team. The offense is working, the defensive side has been great, and their new pieces have fit well. That being said, I just don't see the talent on that side to justify such a close line with OKC. Nothing like a game against the suns to get back into gear, and I think we'll see a hungry and energized OKC team dominate against a team that still needs to prove it can take those same performances on the road. Hoping Adams plays here, would be surprised if he doesn't, but like the bet either way and locking in now.

Blazers +3.5: The Rockets have looked just as bad if not worse than their record. Consistently getting blown out and their only win was solely because Harden took over in the end and got hot. Defensively they have been BADLY missing Ariza and mbah a moute, as Carmelo has been just absolutely horrible. You can't really put a number on how valuable harden is to this team. He opens up space in the floor, demands help inside, and can shoot at any moment. CP3 is great in tandem with him but he's lacking the playmakers and shooting around him to light it up. They don't have the depth, especially without harden, to be as good as they were last year. The Blazers have so much continuity and while their depth might be suspect, the Rockets don't have the second unit to exploit it here. 

Yeah when i posted they weren't out. Because the line was out, I figured books knew they were both playing. turns out books knew neither was playing. Advantage raptors with that trade off!

Added Pelicans +9: After an awful performance against utah, pelicans gonna be motivated here to prove they're decent without AD. They will push the pace and try to turn this into a shootout. I think this line is a slight overreaction to davis missing

YTD:24-21 +3.9 units

Raptors -1: The success of the bucks has come as more of a surprise than the success of the raptors. Neither team has been tested too much by their competition thus far. This line is right on par with my ratings, I just think it is a good match up for them. The bucks don't really have anyone to defend kawhi and all of the outside shooting. Raptors too good defensively to let giannis beat them his usual way. Both teams on plenty of rest and hyped up for the undefeated duel. Give me the better team from the great north.

Spurs -6.5: I've been against the mavs a lot recently. They've been dealing with so many injuries. Harrison Barnes is back but has looked very poor. Devin Harris and dirk still missing. Dennis smith jr looked great coming back off the ankle, but they're still missing pieces and have had some chemistry issues on defense with the lack of time together because of it. Now they're on a back to back after a tough loss to utah, and the injuries make their depth very questionable. Until the books properly adjust their ratings for dallas, or they get healthy, I'll continue fading them.

Bulls +11: Warriors on day 2 of a back to back against nets and now bulls. Obviously they could blow them out if they wanted to, but why would they? Their starters ended up having to play way too many minutes against the Nets and I expect them to coast in this one and fail to cover double digits.

Nuggets over 232: Nuggets and Pelicans have played a fast pace of basketball in the past. Pelicans playing much faster this year and nuggets happy to run with anyone. With rule changes and different refereeing the point explosion should be even higher in this one. This is one of those games the books would never set the line high enough

GL

Added jazz over 213: Jazz have been able to score in bunches at times this year. Little nervous about mavericks pace because of missing pieces, but I still think this line opened at a good number(217) and I will take it now that it's been bet down.

YTD:22-20 +3 units

Wizards +4: Wizards are off to a pretty rough start to the season with some tough games in there as well. Stock is really low here as I had this line as wizards -2 preseason and see it as more of a pick em now. Plenty of value on the wizards in a buy low spot.

Jazz -4: Mavericks need to get their depth back. Harrison is finally back but not back in the swing of things. Their wins are against a reeling wolves team that was shortmanned, and a bulls team also dealing with a bunch of injuries. Meanwhile they lost to the worst team in the league in my opinion (hawks) and got blown out by another bottom 5 team in phoenix. Dennis smith with an ankle problem, harrison still getting used to the rotation, devin harris still missing time, and dirk out for a while still. The mavericks if ever healthy should be a competent team, but that time is not now. 

YTD 20-19 +1.1 units

Bulls +5.5: Short handed and short rest is usually something to stay away from. However, they got blown out last night and gave plenty of rest to their stars. I think they're a better team than atlanta and are very likely to win this game.

Cavs over 215: Big adjustment in the cavs over/unders to be this low. Pacers play slow but think the cavs force enough running for this to hit the 220s.

Sixers -5.5: As of writing this, Embiid is questionable. I think he likely plays but I like the sixers here regardless. More rested team in need of a solid performance. Hornets on the back to back.