BigHans

Home underdog in a night game.  Must win situation.  Less pressure on Saints after the Rams lost. Fierce rivalry, the disrespect factor, etc.  The Panthers seem to usually play well at home in prime time, and this just smells like one of those games to me.

Panthers by 10, minimum.

As someone who has been to 3 Vikings games this year and has watched almost every Vikings game played since 1986, I am not as confident as you.  Cousins has been terrible in pressure situations lately.  I don't see that changing tonight.  If the Vikings win, it will be because of Hunter and Griffen terrorizing Wilson.  Waynes is out, so this is a must.

Agreed.  It is actually easier for an offense to have a better ypc with less attempts.

TC, I get what you're saying.  I did consider that, but the numbers show that while the Saints D have faced the fewest rushing attempts, they are similar to the 2nd and 3rd best rushing D teams as well.  I would venture a lot of teams try to run the ball as a tactic of keep away from the Saints (like the Vikings tried to do), and failed.  Either way, I don't see Zeke going wild.

Thanks for changing that Houston.

lol I really should get my days straight.  I can't figure out how to edit it, so I guess just rolling with it.

Here we have a matchup the NFL is drooling over, thanks to the Cowboys resurgance.  Normally, I go back and forth quite a bit when I am capping prime time games, but this one really did not take much time for me to decide.  I like the the Saints by 2 scores here, for the following reasons:

1. The simplest and most important factor to this game is the Saints have the #1 rush defense in the NFL, and Dallas is dead in the water if they can't run the ball.  You could try to make the argument that teams don't try to run on the Saints because they are playing catch up, but its irrelevant as they have the lowest yard per carry average (3.6) as well.

2. Dallas' top 2 lineman are banged up.  Both Smith and Martin will play, but neither is 100%.  That does not bode well for a team that needs to rush for at least 175 yards to win this game.

3. For all of the attention Dallas is getting about their win streak, they have defeated exactly one team with a winning record this season, a fledging Redskins outfit that rolled out a backup QB and two backup offensive linemen.

4. Conversely, the Saints have won 6 out of their last 7 games by double digit points, including 10 point wins over both the Rams and Vikings, both of which are vastly superior to Dallas.

5. This is not a trap game for the Saints.  They need to keep winning to secure home field, and the early schedule does not favor either team, as both teams played exactly one week ago today./

6. Dallas has little home field advantage to speak of in Jerry World.  There will probably be a large Saints contingent, so the atmosphere is a virtual non factor.

Bottom Line: 

Dallas would need to completley control the clock, rush for at least 175 yards, and force at minimum 2-3 turnovers to win this game outright.  The Saints have proven to be nearly unstoppable, and while Dallas has a much better defense this year, they are stll likely to give up at least 28 points to a rolling Saints offense.  This puts the Cowboys offense in an uncomfortable situation, and in the end, they do not have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with the Saints.

NO -7 is the play./

Stats wise, with a few exceptions, the teams are almost identical across the board. Rams are slightly better at running the ball and stopping the pass.

The X factor is Donald.  Earlier this year the Rams were in a classic shootout on Thursday night in L.A. against Minneosta.  It was lights out offense across the board, back and forth, until Donald decided to take over the end and completely dominated the final two series. It was the game decider.  I see something similair happening tonight.

That's possible Guru, when GB played there it was in favor of the Pack in terms of noise.

2 points that didn't post correctly in original post:

1. Andy Reid has blown dozens of huge games with awful time management and decisions.  I

2. The KC defense gives up 30 PPG on the road.

KC Pass defense is 2 worst in the league, giving up an average of 289 ypg.  The Rams come in at 15, with 233 ypg. 

L.A. is 2 in the NFL is rushing offense, while KC is 13. 

Not sure why those didn't show up above.

Statistically, both teams are similar.  PPG, Defensive PPG, Passing Offense, Rushing Defense, Turnover creation, and Field Goal % are almost identical for both teams, almost to the number.

 Isolated stats that favor the Rams:

 1.       .  You could make the argument that the number is flawed as KC is almost always ahead, but you can make the same argument for L.A.

 2.         Both teams feature elite runners, but Gurley is superior to Hunt statistically and with the eye test.

 3.       Both teams win by an average of 10-11 ppg.  L.A. has only blown out 2 teams, while KC only one).  Their overall PPG for and against are almost identical.

  While L.A. has a few statistical edges, this is about as even as it gets. 

 1.          Both teams have elite quarterbacks, incredible playmakers, and ridiculous offensive schemes.    Both teams do not have one of the best defensive players in NFL history.  If we are looking for angles to decide this game, Donald is one of them.  The guy is unblockable, and with the pressure he creates in the middle, it is bad news as the Chiefs are also weak at Left Tackle, as Fisher often needs help.  The Rams have not been great as a team in getting sacks, but Donald leads the NFL.  Major advantage for L.A.

 2.         In a game where the teams are evenly matched, it has to be considered.

 3.      Mahomes had a death in his family recently (his girlfriend’s step dad died unexpectedly at the stadium two weeks ago during a game).  Although he doesn’t appear to be human, he is, and could be distracted.  Also, he was just on the cover of SI, and the SI jinx is real (I’m just being funny on this point.  Maybe).

 4.     The Rams don’t have a great home field advantage, but the venue change obviously favors them more than KC.  Again, KC’s defense does not travel well at all.

5. KC has not been great as a team in creating pressure or getting sacks.  So far, most of their pressures are coming off the edge with Dee Ford and Chris Jones.  Goff is very adept at stepping up into the pocket and firing downfield to streaking receivers, and KC has a poor secondary. 

 : With very slight statistical advantages in a few key areas (rushing offense, passing defense) favoring the Rams, and the situational factor and venue change in their favor, the play for me has to be:

 Rams -3

Eagles +9 is enticing.   Saints have the 2nd worst pass Defense in the league.  I don't like laying that much chalk with that kind of number in play.   

Well, it's been a solid 10 years since I last posted on this site.  I'm not sure why this particular game is bringing me back into the fold, but I figured I would share a few thoughts.

Seattle -3 

Under 49 (small play)

Primary reasoning/random thoughts:

- Seattle has the #1 rushing offense in the league, and Russell Wilson has started running more as of late.  With Carson back, this is basically a 4 headed attack.  This bodes well for Seattle as Green Bay is giving up over 30 ppg on the road, and has 3 defensive starters out.

- Green Bay is 0-4 on the road this year, and in their previous 3 prime time games, they needed a miracle finish from Rodgers to beat the Bears, barely got by a depleted San Fran team at home, and got carved up in the 4th quarter in Foxborough.  Their only convincing wins on the year was last week against Miami and in week 3 against a hapless Bills team.     For what it's worth, like Seattle, they took The Rams to the wire.  

- Travelling across country on a short weak to play a night game in one of the fiercest environments in football.  Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it isn't a factor that deserves consideration.  Rodger's history in Seattle is not exemplary, although to be fair, he was facing the Legion of Boom, which no longer exists.

- Both teams are in must-win situations, so motivational factors cancel each other out.

- The bottom line is while these teams are mostly evenly matched, there is an edge here for Seattle.  I see a somewhat sloppy game with Seattle running 30-40 times and Rodgers continuing to get frustrated with his coach and most of his receivers not named Davante Adams.  Jones could come up with a big game like last week against Miami to help mitigate the crowd problem, but I don't see him going off twice in a row, at least enough to the point he needs to to help the Packers win.

Seattle 27, Green Bay 20.  Best of Luck!

Quote Originally Posted by texancapper:

BigHan - don't take this personal but I feel you are a much better than your avg. capper to hit Pitt ML. It's not a sure thing bud, you and I both know that. You are better off at picking the sides or the O/U and I know you can do that. You just got me confused with your "big ML play" in this Superbowl. BOL to you brotha man.  

No worries I appreciate the feedback.  I really like how Pitt matches up but I am hesitating on laying the points because Zona is fully capable of keeping it close or getting a back door.  I have a strong feeling that Pitt pulls it out, so thats where the majority of my money is going.

I think Pitt handles adversity better, is better tested, is better able to stay in the game if things dont go their way.  Their defense will always keep them in it, no matter what.  If Ben plays well Pitt may win by double digits. 

BOL

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

GL bighans  ...

 

But in all fairness, Pitts defensive numbers are a little misleading. Most of the teams they played didnt have a good QB(Flacco 3 times, Cleveland qbs 2 times, Cincys Qbs 2 times, Garrard, Campbell, Kerry collins..etc..... So stopping the run meant forcing a subpar QB to beat them.....most couldnt. Played 2 Warner caliber players all season (Rivers and P. Manning).....manning beat them on the road and Rivers was in both games on the road.....

 

Dont let the number fool you.

 

Not trying to be an ass, just starting a discussion.

 

No worries train, youre right about some of those QBs.  BTW, are you hedging your big futures bet?