bigmansteveg

GOOD AFTERNOON, FELLOW DEGENERATES!

I take it everyone is as excited and ecstatic for some college football action as I am.  The next 13 Saturdays are going to be the most wonderful time of the year (all due respect to Santa Claus, the man the myth the legend).

I also trust that most of us are in survivor pools of some sort.  Whether it be one team per week or five, ATS or SU, record or elimination style, there will be no shortage of pools with BIG money on the line. 

My dilemma: I ALWAYS have difficulty finding anyone who has a solid college survivor pool.  Sadly, although I love the NFL and always will (Go Browns!) it seems the general public can't find the same appreciation for college football. 

With that being said....the best way to get something done right, is to do it yourself!  So who in here is interested in an NCAAF survivor pool?  Pick 10 teams every week, SU, with the rule that after you choose a team once, you cannot choose them again the remainder of the season.  10 teams × 13 weeks = 130 teams, which conveniently covers the entire FBS!

If we get enough interest I can get this thing going ASAP.

Stay winning, my friends 

No picks over the conference championship week....didn't see anything I was in love with and figured it was better to enjoy the games.

THE SQUADS

BUCKS (12-1, 9-1): This game itself was a pretty good representation of the Buckeyes' season as a whole.  They had a chance to step on Northwestern's throats, but the classic Greg Schiano defense let them back in the game and it ended up being a little close for comfort.  At the end of the day, it doesn't matter because there was no chance Oklahoma was getting jumped after beating Texas, and rightfully so.  Back-to-back Big Ten champs is something to be proud of, and back-to-back Rose Bowl champs would be great too.  The recently announced season-end departure of Urban Meyer will sting, but I can't say I didn't see it coming.  Let's win his last game.

NEXT UP: vs. Washington (10-3, 8-2 Pac-12 North)

CYCLONES (8-4, 6-3): I was in Ames and didn't attend the game due to monsoon-like conditions, but got to watch parts of it.  Boy oh boy, it was closer than it should've been.  Give credit to Drake, as the Bulldogs were resilient and came aptly prepared in what probably felt like their Super Bowl.  They're a good FCS team for not making the playoffs, and that QB sure looked comfortable in the pocket, spreading the ball all around.  David Montgomery was the player of the game for the Cyclones as he capped off a stellar end to a great regular season.  8-4 is a win better than a year ago, and getting to 9 wins would be huge for the program.

NEXT UP: vs. Washington State (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12 North)

Looking to have plenty of plays for bowl season....

Stay winning, my friends 

THE SQUADS

BUCKS (11-1, 8-1): We don't give a damn for the whole state of Michigan, we're from Ohio!  If I said a few days ago I was expecting anything close to this outcome, I'd be telling an enormous lie.  The defense gave up about as much as expected, but also forced a few big turnovers that led to the offense dropping a 62-burger on Michigan's best defense in the country.  Meanwhile, Dwayne Haskins has had the best passing season in Big Ten history.  Just when you (and us) count us out, we put ourselves right back in the CFP race.

NEXT UP: vs. Northwestern (8-4, 8-1 B1G West)

CYCLONES (7-4, 6-3): What a game!  I was counting out the Cyclones and thinking it would be just another loss to K-State, until midway through the 4th quarter.  The defense had gotten gashed by the running game and had not lived up to the rest of their season at all.  But a clutch fumble return TD, combined with a career night for David Montgomery and a couple big stops late, gave Iowa State their 7th win in another improved season behind Matt Campbell.  Lesson learned: Don't count 'em out in Ames!

NEXT UP: Drake (7-3, 6-2 Pioneer)

Is it appropriate to call this Week 14?  Too late, that's what I'm going with since I finally went undefeated. 

3U PLAYS (1-0, +2.73U):

SYRACUSE  I hate using the phrase "easy money", but this one didn't make me sweat at all.  Good job, 'Cuse.

2U PLAYS (1-0, +1.82U):

TEMPLE  In a blowout loss, UConn set an ALL-TIME record for defensive futility in the FBS.  I feel a little for these guys to be honest.

1U PLAYS (2-0, +1.74U):

RUTGERS  They had a solid chance to win outright, and I was pulling for them to do it.  Easy cover nonetheless.

CHARLOTTE  An outright win for the 49ers to prevent FAU from being bowl-eligible!

WEEK 13: 4-0, +6.29U

OVERALL: 66-65-5, -7.49U

3U PLAYS: 13-10-2, +3U

2U PLAYS: 24-23-2, -2.6U

1U PLAYS: 29-32-1, -5.89U

Hard to believe it's already the last week of the regular season!

3U PLAYS:

SYRACUSE +7 (-110) : Will Eric Dungey be available to play?  If he is, I like Syracuse a lot.  Boston College is coming off a loss to Florida State and I don't see any reason to back them if they're laying a touchdown.

2U PLAYS:

TEMPLE -29 (-110) : Backing UConn doesn't seem like a good move at anything below 31.  Temple has had a good season, beating Cincy and giving UCF a big scare.  Their offense should have no problem scoring at will.

1U PLAYS:

RUTGERS +27 (-110) : The last time Michigan State put up 27 points was back in September.  Rutgers had a solid showing last week against Penn State in a game that was closer than the score.  Don't let me down.

CHARLOTTE +18 (-120) : FAU is capable of winning by this margin, but they've been below average ATS while Charlotte has had a boatload of close losses.  They should be able to hang around long enough for a cover.

THE SQUADS

BUCKS (10-1, 7-1): One of the best games I've watched in my life, and I would not have expected that heading into Saturday.  On one hand, I'm proud of how we battled back and never gave up.  But damn, could the linebackers and defensive backfield be playing any worse, especially against a backup QB?  I still can't believe he missed the receiver wide open for the 2-point conversion in OT.  Turnovers also killed us for the first time all year, and man did Urban Meyer look terrible on the sidelines.  Still alive for the CFP somehow!

NEXT UP: The Team Up North (10-1, 7-1 B1G East)

CYCLONES (6-4, 5-3): Welp, an outside shot at the Big 12 title was fun while it lasted.  Almost no offense was mustered for the entirety of the game, with less than 150 passing and less than 100 rushing yards.  Meanwhile, Texas' backup QB (see the theme in this post?) came in and easily completed all 10 of his passes.  It was going to be tough to go into Austin and win at night, but I would've liked to see a better fight out of the guys.  Oh well, there's more wins to be had this season I suppose.

NEXT UP: Kansas State (5-6, 3-5 Big 12)

A light slate this past weekend.  The way the season has gone as a whole, that's probably a good thing.

3U PLAYS (1-0, +2.5U):

NORTHWESTERN  Despite multiple injuries in the defensive backfield, the Wildcats won again.  Good year they're having!

2U PLAYS (0-2, -4U):

WEST VIRGINIA  Look at Okie State, single handedly trying to keep the Big 12 out of the CFP!

WESTERN MICHIGAN  Would've liked to see them play for OT and a chance at the cover, but to no avail.

1U PLAYS (2-1, +.67U):

RICE  Too many points for LSU to cover, as they wouldn't have done it even with a shutout.

UTEP  This one never had a chance after Western Kentucky jumped out to a 40-0 (!) lead.  Wow.

AUBURN  For what it's worth, they looked a lot better against Liberty than Bama did against The Citadel.

WEEK 12: 3-3, -.83U

OVERALL: 62-65-5, -13.78U

3U PLAYS: 12-10-2, +.27U

2U PLAYS: 23-23-2, -4.42U

1U PLAYS: 27-32-1, -7.63U

Let's get it.

3U PLAYS:

NORTHWESTERN -2 (-120) : I get they have nothing to technically play for (except maybe a better bowl game).  But I doubt that means they don't take this game seriously.  Minnesota is not a great team by any measure.

2U PLAYS:

WEST VIRGINIA -5 (-105) : The Mountaineers need to win out to have a shot at the CFP, and probably need some help too.  A couple blowout victories would help their case; I think they earn one here in Stillwater.

WESTERN MICHIGAN -7 (-120) : After a blowout loss to The Real OU, the Broncos get to play an opponent who they have crushed in recent years.  With Riley Neal being out, WMU may run away with this one.

1U PLAYS:

RICE +44 (-120) : Betting on a team that lost to UTEP?  I'll roll with it.  LSU has only put up 44+ once this season, so if Rice can score late against the backups then a backdoor cover could very well happen.

UTEP +8 (-125) : Betting on UTEP?  I'll roll with it.  Going along with the BGSU-CMU logic of last week, in a pillow fight I like either team getting more than a TD.  Plus, UTEP has kept it closer against much better competition.

AUBURN -28 (-120) : I can't understand why Auburn is still ranked at this point in the season (cough, SEC bias).  But come on, it's Liberty.  You can't possibly let them hang around....can you?

THE SQUADS

BUCKS (9-1, 6-1): The score made the game look like it wasn't close, but defense and special teams (aided by some Spartan miscues) were ultimately the deciding factors.  We still can't find a way to have any sustained drives on offense, and part of that is lacking the traditional Ohio State abilities of a) the read option and b) really the running game in general.  But at the end of the day, a 20-point road win over a ranked team looks good on paper and it should be a confidence booster as we need to finish the regular season out strong.

NEXT UP: @ Maryland (5-5, 3-4 B1G East)

CYCLONES (6-3, 5-2): Not much to say about this one as the defense looked slightly off but Brock Purdy had another great outing, leading to a relatively close result.  The highlight of the game was probably the 3rd quarter brawl that saw David Montgomery and a Baylor player get ejected.  But however you slice it, a 5-game conference win streak has never happened before so the Cyclones have something to be proud of and are poised to finish the year in the Top 25 if they take care of business.

NEXT UP: @ Texas (7-3, 5-2 Big 12)

PIONEERS (7-3, 6-3): Looking back on the season, these guys have set a precedent for years to come as the program should only continue to improve under the current coaching staff.  We won 7 games for the first time since the 1990's, were a missed field goal away from being undefeated at home, and should have a few players get All-America votes.  There's no shame in losing to Mount Union, who you could call the Alabama of Division III football.  One of these years we'll get 'em.

Lost the little bit that I made up last week.  Funny how that works out.

3U PLAYS (0-2, -6U):

FRESNO STATE  Good lord, talk about a blown lead.  Boise reigns supreme at home.

SMU  UConn kept it closer than expected.  SMU giving up 50?!  Inexcusable.

2U PLAYS (3-1, +3.07U):

TOLEDO  Many missed opportunities by the Rockets early in the game set the tone in a blowout loss.

KANSAS  The basement of the Big 12 produced a great game.  Imagine that!

WASHINGTON STATE  Colorado is in a tailspin.  Can Wazzu find a way to sneak into the CFP?

NORTHWESTERN  Hats off to the Wildcats for clinching the B1G West!  They just find ways to win.

1U PLAYS (3-0-1, +2.47U):

WEST VIRGINIA  These guys are going to be on cruise control until the Oklahoma game.

MARYLAND  The way this game went, can't be too upset with a push.  Too bad the Terps couldn't pull it off.

BOWLING GREEN  Outright win for the Falcons over a bad Chippewa squad who can't muster any sort of offense.

TEXAS  I was nervous about this one, but Texas is not giving up on their season just yet.

WEEK 11: 6-3-1, -.46U

OVERALL: 59-62-5, -12.95U

3U PLAYS: 11-10-2, -2.23U

2U PLAYS: 23-21-2, -2.42U

1U PLAYS: 25-31-1, -8.3U

ADDING:

2U PLAYS:

WASHINGTON STATE -6 (-120) : Something about this line is fishy, because it feels like Gardner Minshew is going to throw for 300+ without blinking and Colorado being undefeated feels like a distant memory.  Ah well, I won't overthink it.

NORTHWESTERN +11 (-120) : I like Iowa to win here, but by double digits?  Not exactly.  Of course, they'll go and win in a blowout now that I said that.  But the B1G West has been full of surprises this season.

1U PLAYS:

BOWLING GREEN +8 (-125) : This game should be dubbed the pillow fight of the year, with a combined 2 wins between the teams.  I like Central Michigan to win, but getting more than a TD feels good for the underdogs.

TEXAS -2 (-115) : Tough game here in Lubbock for the Longhorns, but I expect them to rebound from that loss to West Virginia as they still have a shot at a Big 12 championship game appearance.  If not, they're done.

This week's picks....

3U PLAYS:

FRESNO STATE -3 (-115) : 8-1 both SU and ATS this season, the Bulldogs are rolling.  This spread feels too small despite their tendency to struggle on the smurf turf.  I like Fresno to win big and keep rising in the rankings.

SMU -19 (-115) : The fade UConn train is going to continue for me, especially after SMU earned a big win over Houston.  Even on the road, the Mustangs should have no trouble winning by 3 TD's.

2U PLAYS:

TOLEDO +3 (-105) : Wednesday night MACtion!  I like NIU's defense a lot, but I like Toledo's offense well enough to produce a road cover in a pivotal MAC West game in DeKalb.

KANSAS +12 (-115) : K-State laying double digits to KU is normally as much of a guarantee of it raining in Seattle.  But not this year.  Both teams are relatively evenly matched, to where it could (and should) go down to the wire.

1U PLAYS:

WEST VIRGINIA -12 (-125) : TCU has fallen off big time, and West Virginia is excellent at home.  Will Grier is going to pick apart the Horned Frog defense.  As long as they don't beat themselves, they should cruise.

MARYLAND +2 (-110) : Last week I faded Maryland due to the distractions involving D.J. Durkin.  I'm banking on them winning this week since that has faded a bit, and because this is realistically their last chance at getting to 6 wins.

THE SQUADS:

BUCKS (8-1, 5-1): A win is a win, but it's evident that this team is going nowhere this season for multiple reasons.  The Buckeyes managed to make an average freshman QB look like an All-American and also carelessly turned the ball over when they had chances to step on Nebraska's throats.  Combine that with a defensive backfield who is trying to give away the school's claim to "DBU", and you have a recipe for wasting the talent of Dwayne Haskins.  None of the remaining games are gimmes, so it's put up or shut up time.

NEXT UP: @ Michigan State (6-3, 4-2 B1G East)

CYCLONES (5-3, 4-2): It was a solid game for the defense shutting down Pooka Williams as the Cyclones won their 4th straight game to bring themselves into a tie with Texas for 3rd place in the Big 12.  The highlight of the game was undoubtedly Hakeem Butler and his Mossing of a Jayhawk defender en route to an epic touchdown.  As much as I like Kyle Kempt, the team is doing extremely well with Brock Purdy at the helm, and Matt Campbell is doing a great job with the program.

NEXT UP: Baylor (5-4, 3-3 Big 12)

PIONEERS (7-2, 6-2): If you would've told me we'd be 7-2 after 9 games, I would've taken it without hesitation.  After tough back-to-back losses, MC rebounded with a 43-21 win over Otterbein thanks to a 22-point 4th quarter.  Darrien Fields has now set pretty much every career passing record in the books, and Tanner Clark ran for 100+ yards for the 8th time this season.  With one last game left, let's hope the boys leave it all out on the field and go out with a bang.

NEXT UP: @ Mount Union (9-0, 8-0 OAC)

OVERALL: 53-59-4, -11.26U

Finally a winning week!  Not by much, but anything at this point is good.

3U PLAYS (1-1, -.5U):

DUKE  Outright win for the Blue Devils, and The U is falling apart.

EASTERN MICHIGAN  The defense did their job, but it's hard to cover a 2-TD spread when you only score 17.

2U PLAYS (2-2, -.73U):

WESTERN MICHIGAN  The Broncos got demolished by Ohio U, whose players didn't have to miss the big HallOUween celebration!

MICHIGAN STATE  Easy victory for Sparty.  Maryland's program is not trending in the right direction.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN  There I go betting on the Sun Belt again.

IOWA  These guys just love covering the spread.  Almost had that outright win.

1U PLAYS (3-1, +1.69U):

STANFORD  This was looking bad in the first half, but the Cardinal came around to make it a ballgame.

FRESNO STATE  Bigtime blowout for the Bulldogs.  Take that Minnesota loss away and these guys are having a great season.

UTEP  Congrats to the Miners for picking up their first win on the year!

LA TECH  Note to self: Don't bet against Mississippi State at home.

WEEK 10: 6-4, +.46U

3U PLAYS: 11-8-2, +3.77U

2U PLAYS: 20-20-2, -5.49U

1U PLAYS: 22-31, -10.77U

ADDING:

2U PLAYS:

GEORGIA SOUTHERN -7 (-120) : This line has moved down from 10 and I get it to a point.  The Eagles are in a look-ahead spot with UL Monroe at home off a bye.  But don't overthink it, Georgia Southern is far and away the better team.

IOWA +3 (-125) : In an extremely important B1G West game, I've got the Hawkeyes winning outright.  I've done well betting on Iowa and terribly betting against Purdue, so something's gotta give!

1U PLAYS:

UTEP +1 (-110) : You're reading this right.  I never thought in a hundred years I'd bet on UTEP, but they actually seem to be figuring it out slightly.  This is their best shot at a win yet, so they better show up on Saturday.

LA TECH +24 (-120) : Feels like too many points as SEC teams sometimes struggle to get it going against their cupcake non-conference opponents.  This is bold, but I guarantee the Bulldogs win.

Vegas is getting good late in the season and is going to take more of my money.  Here goes nothing:

3U PLAYS:

DUKE +10 (-120) : What has Miami done all season to warrant being a double digit favorite over a good Duke team, even at home?  Yes, the Blue Devils have fallen off a bit, but I can't see them not competing here.

EASTERN MICHIGAN -13 (-120) : After a tough loss to Army, EMU should post a good showing at home against the Chippewas, who will struggle to move the ball; they haven't scored above 24 points all season!

2U PLAYS:

WESTERN MICHIGAN +2 (-105) : I think the public is overreacting to their blowout loss to Toledo.  The Bobcats are a good team, but with the Broncos at home a bounce back game seems likely as they're still in contention for the MAC West.

MICHIGAN STATE -2 (-120) : Picking this game based on the D.J. Durkin debacle, and can you blame the players for responding the way they are?  A bad loss could be on the horizon.

1U PLAYS:

STANFORD +10 (-115) : As much as I don't like betting on the Pac-12, I see these teams as fairly evenly matched and Stanford just played Wazzu tough last week.  I'll bank on Bryce Love being healthy and take the points.

FRESNO STATE -25 (-110) : I was surprised to see the Bulldogs ranked at #20, but they have only one bad game all year against Minnesota.  UNLV is one of the worst teams in the country and haven't won since mid-September.

THE SQUADS:

BUCKS (7-1, 4-1): After having a week to review the Purdue game, I still have a very uneasy feeling about the rest of the season.  I can't fathom how these guys have one game every year where they just flat out don't show up.  The optimist in me says, "Well, that means they should show up the rest of the year!", but the last 4 games are far from a cakewalk.  If Urban Meyer doesn't have these guys ready to play this Saturday, there will be even more angry fans calling for jobs in Columbus.  Time will tell.

NEXT UP: Nebraska (2-6, 1-4 B1G West)

CYCLONES (4-3, 3-2): What a game it was to be in attendance for!  I think it's safe to say Iowa State played like the better team for the majority of the contest, but a couple of mishaps in their own red zone allowed Texas Tech to stay in it until late.  The defense played very well - all things considered - and the Cyclones are now just a game back in the Big 12.  If the offense can continue to move the ball well, Matt Campbell will have them in a good position late in the season.

NEXT UP: @ Kansas (3-5, 1-4 Big 12)

PIONEERS (6-2, 5-2): Another tough loss for MC as we again saw a double-digit lead crumble in the 2nd half.  We led 28-27 but missed a chip shot field goal, then allowed BW to drive down and hit a 42-yarder as time expired to give them a narrow victory on our Senior Day.  While these guys are a couple plays away from being 8-0, you could also argue they're a couple plays from being 4-4, so 6-2 is pretty good all in all!  Just one more win will mark an improvement from last season.

NEXT UP: @ Otterbein (1-7, 0-7 OAC)

WEEK 9: 4-6, -1.77U

OVERALL: 47-55-4, -12.95U

3U PLAYS: 10-7-2, +4.27U

2U PLAYS: 18-18-2, -4.76U

1U PLAYS: 19-30, -12.46U

I've had better weekends, but I've also had worse.  Lots of good games to watch regardless!

3U PLAYS (2-1, +1.9U):

VIRGINIA TECH  These guys got absolutely thrashed at home by the Triple Option.  Embarrassing to say the least.

UTAH STATE  Big-time win for the Aggies and I didn't even have to sweat in this one.  61 points!

LA TECH  A very good game to watch.  I think FAU gets too much hype for being Last Chance U 2.0.

2U PLAYS (2-2, -.67U):

TOLEDO  Still questioning why WMU was favored by a touchdown, but not complaining!

IOWA  Tough loss for the Hawkeyes in a hostile environment.  They need to win out to win the B1G West.

TEXAS  Texas is NOT back.

SOUTHERN MISS  Can't say I had a good read on this one at all.  Why I'm betting on the C-USA, I have no idea.

1U PLAYS (0-3, -3U):

INDIANA  Big-time letdown for the Hoosiers, who I thought were ready to turn the corner.  Apparently not.

TEXAS A&M  Nick Fitzgerald ran wild in a big victory for the Bulldogs.  Hats off to them.

ARKANSAS  Note to self: Please add Arkansas to the "Do Not Bet On" list for the remainder of 2018.