blom

Southern Miss v. Minnesota, Minneapolis MN, 9:00 et.

Opening Line : Minn -4/134.5 Current Line: Minn -4.5/137

Analysis:

I believe that the Minnesota Golden Gophers hold some value tonight against Southern Miss minus the 4.5 points. First of all, Southern Miss has had a difficult travel schedule before tonight’s game. They played at Missouri on Saturday and won outright as dogs. Then they had to travel back to Mississippi after that game, game plan with one day of rest, then fly back to Minneapolis for tonight’s game. Physical or emotional fatigue and less prep time may be a result. Minnesota full court presses as well, which means that extra energy will have to be used by the guards during the game. Minnesota on the other hand has had the chance of playing both of first two games of the NIT at home. They beat High Point in an ugly game from their standpoint, and then beat Saint Mary’s after starting the game down 14-0. One would think that Minnesota should have a nice little advantage after not having to travel and having a little momentum after that nice come from behind win against Saint Mary’s.

Minnesota’s offense has some real nice balance. DeAndre Mathieu starts at the PG position and does an excellent job of driving the ball to kick to shooters or score. He should really want to have a nice game tonight because he is playing against his old coach Donnie Tyndall. Donnie Tyndall previously coached at Morehead State, and did not offer Mathieu a scholarship during his freshman walk-on season. This has to offer some extra motivation for Minnesota transfer guard. Junior guard Andre Hollins and senior guard Austin Hollins really spread the floor for Minnesota. Both guards like to get out in transition and shoot the three and score. Elliason and King are the starting front court for Minnesota. Elliason has nice defensive ability and rebounding as long as he can stay out of the foul trouble. King is a solid role 4 who is knows that he should be strong defensively, and add a little offense when he can.

Southern Miss does not have a player on its roster that stands over 6’7. This could present a problem against Minnesota with the size of both Elliason and Mo Walker coming off the bench. Both are big strong bodies that Minnesota likes to the throw the ball down in the post. Southern Miss doesn’t really shoot the ball very well from the field, ranking 123^rd in effective field goal percentage.  They rely heavily on forcing turnovers, offensive rebounding, and getting fouled. With the experience the Gophers have at the guard position I cannot believe that turnovers will be a real issue here. Mathieu and both Hollins are used to playing against pressure because that is what they see every day in practice with Pitinio being their coach. He uses a full court pressure similar to his fathers, and the gophers should be ready. They average 12 turnovers per game on the year, so that shouldn’t be a huge issue. One would also hope that with the size advantage here that Minnesota has, they should clean up the defensive glass nicely. Even if Elliason gets into foul trouble early in his game, Pitino can come off the bench with Walker. One would think that Pitino would put an emphasis on defensive rebounding in this game after studying film. Minnesota should be able to mask the strength of Southern Miss ability to offensive rebound here with their height.

Finally, Minnesota has been here before 2 years ago. Both Hollins experienced that run deep into the NIT two years ago, and should have some experience from already being through it. They realize that only a number of teams are still playing at this time of the year, and focus should be high to get to the Madison Sqaure Garden. This is Pitino first year at Minnesota, and you have to believe that he will want to show how “he is turning the program around” by making to MSG in the NIT. Something has to be said for the tougher schedule that Minnesota had to play going through the Big Ten as well. Southern Miss best wins on the season come against NDSU, Georgia State, and La Tech.  Minnesota shoots free throws at about 75% as well, so if the game turning into a foul fest late, they should still be able to hold on and cover the number.

I think Minnesota, playing at home wins by around 10. Comments are always welcome.

One more add guys. Gonzaga/BYU over 145.

I can't put together a complete write up like above, but will give you some general thoughts on the play.

- Both teams are currently averaging above 1.10 a possession in conference play.

- BYU runs and runs some more, they want to fire up shots. Gonzaga should throw the ball inside for some easy hoops with Dower and there other big I can't spell his name.

- Back to back I believe affects the defense, and that intensity as much as the shooting and the offense. If BYU defensively is struggling, they just try to score as fast as they can with you.

- Conference championship game, BYU or Gonzaga won't easily give up, if this game is close (4 pt) spread, they will foul at the end until tomorrow.

-Pangos has been struggling shooting, and Gonzaga as a team, time to come out of it. After playing two games already in the gym, the players should be getting more used to the area around the basket

- The two games this year finished at 155 and 138, with neither team playing their best offensive ball. The total has dropped from the last game of 152  to 145 tonight. 7 pt difference because of back to back games at a site they have played a lot? To much value here to pass up for me in a game that could see foul city at the end and get 20 in the last 2 mins.

Wisconsin Milwaukee v. Wright State 7 et. At Wright State

Opening Line: Wright State -6/129   Current Line: Wright State -6.5/127.5

Wisconsin Milwaukee comes into this game red hot in the Horizon League tournament. They have won four in a row and covered in each of them. First, they played Detroit in the opening round and won by 10 at home. Then they played Valpo and Green Bay in Green Bay. Against Valpo, they only shot 37% from the field and still won by 17. Against the number one seed Green Bay, they won in OT 73-66. This game was played at Green Bay, and was a huge upset. So Milwaukee just beat their rival, a favorite to win the conference, in OT, and their house and now have to go to Wright State for a chance to go to the big dance. Seems like a very emotional high against Green Bay which could lead to a let down here tonight. However with a chance to go to the dance on the line, likely they are still up for this game. I am just not so sure that they didn’t already win their super bowl last game out against their rivals. They have had three days off to prep for this game, so maybe that will help bring their focus and emotions back for tonight at Wright State. I am just not sure what team we see tonight from Milwaukee.

In terms of scheme, Milwaukee doesn’t really excel anymore in the game. They are not ranked above 100^th in any offensive or defensive category. Milwaukee is more guard orientated with their leading scorer being Jordan Aaron at 14 ppg. He went off against Green Bay scoring 28 in the huge win. They have some bigs can score down low with Kelm and Tiby, but this team usually wins or loses with their guards.

On the other side in comes Wright State having won six in a row and covering in their last four. To get here they had to beat Oakland and Cleveland State in Green Bay. They beat an up and down 3 point shooting Oakland team 73-57, holding them to just 29% from three. Against second seeded Cleveland State, they won by 5 while shooting 55% from the field and 50% from three. They also come into this game after three days off, and this championship game is being played on their home court. They lost in this same championship game last year to Valpo. That should give this senior orientated team an experience advantage here tonight.

Wright State is an experienced team with both Darling and Pacher as seniors. These are their bigs that they like to run their offense through. Arceneaux is their PG who runs the show and slows the tempo down. They like to slow the game and run their offensive sets by getting the ball inside and look for inside out shots. This Wright State team has balance with only Pacher averaging double figures, but most of their offense starts down low. This team plays damn good defense, with usually keeps them in the game.

The problem is with the low possession game that Wright State usually plays it is harder to cover a higher spread of 6 points. As a team Wright State does shoot 73% on the year from the line, which could help out come late in the game if it turns into a fouling.

The first matchup of this season, Wright State dominated Milwaukee at home 73-57. They jumped out to an early lead, and never looked back. Just nine days later, Milwaukee won the second game 68-64. Milwaukee jumped out to a huge early first half lead 38-23, but Wright State jumped back and could have won at the end. Milwaukee basically won the game from the free throw line. In both games, Milwaukee has really struggled from three point land going 3-15 and 3-14.  Wright State has held their own or beaten Milwaukee badly in three of four halves of basketball they have played this season.

So to sum it up, you have an underdog red hot Milwaukee team that just beat the favorite, their rival Green Bay, in OT to advance to this game on their home court. Now they have to travel to Wright State, an experienced team that lost in this game last year with a lot of seniors. Wright State is going to slow it down and play solid defense and pound the ball in the paint. Hard not to like Wright State in this spot, only thing that scares me is laying 6.5 points. The big question is Milwaukee going to bring in the momentum into this game from the win against Green Bay, or was that their biggest game of the season. Something tells you they may come out a little flat against a team that lost this game last year and all offseason wanted to win this.

Play: Wright State -6 (buying half a point). Could easily see a 3-6 win here for Wright State in a close game, but got to value I believe that Wright State has.

blom

Nice start NDSU

Denver at NDSU Souix Falls Arena 7 et

Opening Line: NDSU -5.5/6.5

Pick: NDSU -6.5

Analysis: I believe that this NDSU team holds some value here tonight besides the fact of laying the points here.  In the last meeting on March 1, 2014, NDSU beat this team in Fargo 78-68. Looking at the facts from that game though there is some interesting points. Denver in that game shot 15-32 from three, or 46.9% from three. That is pretty darn good, but the interesting part of this was that NDSU still won the game by 10 points. In the other matchup on the season, Denver took care of business at there home court 67-63. Denver has been very good at home throughout the years, and it is not surprising that one of NDSU conferences losses came here.  In that game Denver also shot 9-16 from three, and shot 56% from three, and still only won the game by 4. In a back to back scenario here, do you really believe that this team will still shoot as well from three? NDSU comes in having a strong starting 5 here. Tyler Braun is a strong swing 3 who leads them in rebounding and can really score the ball. Alexander and Brown stand tall for the guard position at 6-3 and 6-4, and can distribute and score. They have a solid big man Bjurkland who they can throw the ball into. Felt also comes off the bench and is a really good shooter for this team. I believe that NDSU has the best starting 5 in Summit League and should win this tournament. They can really play both fast and slow tempos. They played Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Delaware in the non conference. These games gave them strong competition and prepared for a deep run in this tournament.

NDSU got to the to the title game last year in this same building, and lost to SDSU by 6. This was the strongest SDSU team in a long time, and they only lost by 6. This is the first year that Denver has played in this Summit league tournament. NDSU got the experience here.

On the other hand, Denver doesn’t play nearly as well on the road. They are a solid 4-8 on the road this season, and with this game being played in Souix Falls don’t expect many fans. Denver major scoring options on offense is with Olson as a guard. He can really shoot the ball and distribute on this team. There other option is a post 4 in Udofia, who is a decent option. The problem is that the bigger guards from NDSU should really distribute the shooting from Olson in this game. Denver really can’t get in the up and down game and win. They will want to slow this game down. NDSU on the other hand can play either way and has many more scoring options. I think NDSU wins this by 10+, and it is unlikely that Denver shoots as well from three. This NDSU team is on a mission this here to win this tournament, and I believe is the best team in this conference. Denver only beat this team by 4 at home in altitude. Better team with more offensive options win out here. After what Olson has done to them already twice this season, you would think that NDSU takes him out of the game. If this is the case Denver will really struggle to score.

The only thing that scares me here is that the possessions are unlikely to be all that high in this game. That might mean that it means that it might be hard to get to up to the 7 points. NDSU shoots almost 75% from the free throw line. That means late in the game they won’t miss many of the bs free throws that may not allow them to cover.

Lay the chalk here, and think about buying it down to 6 even though I think NDSU wins by 10+.

Iona v. Manhattan Springfield Mass. 7 et.

Opening: Manhattan pk/-2, 157.

Analysis: Pick Manhattan -2.

During the last matchup I took Manhattan at home, in which they failed to cover the spread of 4.5 but won at home by 3, 80-77. I believe they hold some value tonight as well and here is why:

1.       Revenge. Last year Iona won this game 60-57 and I believe that with this group of seniors that Manhattan has it is there year to go to the tournament. Manhattan seeking their first bid since 2004 to the NCAA tournament. All offseason and into the season all that their coach has talked about beating their rivals in this game, and it is shaping up perfectly for a strong effort from them. In this same game last year, Iona only shot 3-9 from the three. Now this is definitely a more three reliant team than last year’s squad.

2.       Legs. This will be both teams third game in three days and I expect some tried legs. Iona wins or loses by shooting the three ball, and I believe that their shots may be a little off with this kind of scheduling.  Last game Iona was 11-29 from three and Williams and Bowman were key contributor to their success from three, but that was on regular rest. A jump shooting team playing its third game in three days? Ill take the other side. If they go out and shot 50% from three then Vegas can have my money, just don’t see it happening.  Tired legs could mean trouble for Manhattan’s defense as well, but you have to believe with a trip to the tournament on the line they bring their best effort.

3.       Manhattan players matchup. Manhattan starts three seniors who play a key role. Beamon, Alvarado, and Brown. Last time these teams met Beamon was 5-22, and 0-6 from three. Anyone who knows Iona defense knows that this was not because he was that well defended. He just missed open shots. I believe a senior playing in his final game with a chance to get to the tournament brings his A game tonight and redeems himself after that horrible performance.  Brown should dominant the paint again tonight again like last time, and I have to believe he will do better than 1-8 from the free throw line. He is only around 50% from there, but if he makes 50% then I can live with that. The only real matchup that Iona has for a big that can matchup with Brown is Laury. The problem with this is that Laury is playing a point four, and needs to exert significant energy on bringing the ball up the court against Manhattan press. Alvarado went out early in the first half last game out because of an ankle injury. He is a huge part of this team, and they found a way to win the game even without him. He hurt his eye last game but is probable to go tonight. A senior, playing his rival, with a chance to go to the tournament, likely he is going to have to not be able to open his eye to play tonight. Alvarado is important, but they can win without him. Alvarado is important piece to distribute and score for this team, and the fact that they already beat Iona once without him is huge. This team just matches up well with Iona, Manhattan can score down low where Iona is weak with Brown, and if Manhattan runs Iona off the three point line I believe they struggle. A team starting 4 seniors in this spot I believe has to hold some value for the experience gained last year.

4.       Iona’s defense. They are rated 329^th in the nation at points allowed. Yes, some of that has to do with their faster pace, but that is still horrible for a team that finished first in their conference. This Iona team is pretty simple, if they can outscore you they will beat you. They do not focus on defense and would rather a quick easy two and go down and shoot up a three. If Manhattan can get out in and run, Iona has shown that it will give up easy baskets. Manhattan is 15^th in the nation and steals, and I believe that there full court pressure could give some problems to Iona’s guards.

Thoughts/comments are welcome, but I really believe unless Iona goes off from three here tonight they will have a hard time scoring and I believe that Manhattan will be cutting down the nets. If I get word that Alvarado cannot not go, then I will take less on it. I will still take it even with him out.

Iona v. Manhattan

Posted Plays: 4-3

Sorry about grammar and bad spelling, did this on break at work so had to hurry.

Line : Manhattan -4.5

Iona comes into this game having clinched the MAAC regular season title with Quinnipac’s loss. They have been playing good basketball, and already beat this Manhattan team on 1/31 by 12 in a game they were favored by only 2.5. Manhattan on the other hand comes into this game after having lost to Siena by 4.  I think it is safe to say that Manhattan was looking forward to this game in that lost to Siena at Siena. This is a large rivalry game and there are some reasons I think that Manhattan holds some value tonight:

1.       This is a one bid league, and Iona has already clinched the 1 seed. However, Manhattan can still get the 2 seed and that would be huge because then they wouldn’t match up with Iona until the title game. Iona has already got the 1 seed, don’t have nearly as much to play for.

2.       Even though the first loss was by 12, the final score doesn’t show how close the game really was throughout. Manhattan was up six early in the second half and only down 2 with under 5 mins left. Six of Manhattan 7 losses have been by six points or fewer.

3.       Revenge. For the game early this year where they lost by 12 in a rivalry. This Iona team is the same team that beat Manhattan 60-57 in last years MAAC tournament final. I think there might be some built up frustration here.

4.        Manhattan seniors. This Manhattan is a true feel good story, when Masiello took over these seniors which were freshman then were 6-25. Look at all the success that this program has had since then and the growth. I think you see a huge game out of these seniors including Beamon, Alvarado, and Brown. Beamon is an absolute stud, and I think he has a huge game here. Manhattan wants to beat their rivals in a big game before these guys graduate.

5.       The line. So let me get this straight, the number 1 team in the league is 4.5 point dogs on the road after not having lost since Jan 17? In the last matchup the line was Iona -2.5 at Iona. Giving the standard 6 point for a home team, you are telling me on a neutral court Manhattan would be favored by 3.5 or 4. Something about this line doesn’t make sense to me, and makes me think that the books want the Iona action.

6.       Iona’s defense. Its horrible, flat out. If Iona can outscore you, they will win. That is all their coach seems to care about. Anyone who has watched this team knows that. They don’t aren’t strong defensively. In a game at Manhattan where Manhattan’s defense should be playing hard as all hell, I think Iona might struggle offensively here. If this Iona team struggles a little offensively, good luck winning the game with how they play defense.

7.       Manhattan wants this one, bad. I think you see a great effort out of them tonight, and with the way Iona plays defense, wouldn’t be surprised to see a blowout to be honest.

Play: Manhattan -4.5

I have since noticed since I started this write up that the line has gone up to 5 at my book. I am going to wait until game time believing that most people will see the number 1 team in the MAAC conference getting 5 points against a team that they already beat by 12 and pound Iona. I believe the public will bring this line back down to 4ish by game time. At that point, I will take Manhattan. Anything above 5 I am not quite as sure. I see that 51% on covers at on Manhattan, I really hope that changes. If it does not I might just play a first half play on Manhattan to cover against a backdoor cover for a team that can really shoot the three.

camby- hadn't read that yet about Baylor getting rid of the zone. Don't really know what the means for tonight's game though.

vegasvandal- no doubt FSU is down. but UNC going up against size, on the road, with Duke on deck. To much value for me even if UNC runs them out of the gym.

Thanks for the insight.