bluecompass

I like Clemson in this spot.  Dabo spent the week getting his guys' minds right and preaching humbleness and humility.  They aren't believing their own hype anymore.  Tons of pundits picking GT as their "upset of the week".  I think the Tigers win by a TD.

Clem -2.5

And full disclosure, yes, I'm a Clemson fan.

You guys are the craigslist of betting

More like the myspace of betting.

And so it begins - the 2025 season finally gets underway - feels like we've been waiting forever. The buzz here in Clemson right now is palpable. There's an electricity in the air for every home game, but when we get a huge game like this, the vibrations just seem to go off the charts. We've been here tailgating since yesterday with some old friends from Mandeville, LA. Yes, they're wearing their LSU gear. They brought a cooler full of Abita Springs beer and we brought a couple of full mason jars and all the food. The brisket went on the smoker at 6pm and I just pulled it off and it's sitting in peach paper in a cooler. I added the pork butt at midnight and the ribs about an hour ago. We're expecting to feed about 30 people. Everything, including the Tiger Piss Bisque (curried butternut squash soup with shrimp) that the wife made should be ready to eat in time to watch the Texas/Ohio St game on the giant 32" TV we've got set up on the tailgate. In the meantime, I'm gonna eat a tomato sandwich, drink another Turbodog, and maybe squeeze in another nap before things get really amped up. We're supposed to be going after some catfish tonight on Hartwell after the game, but I'm not sure how much I'll have left in the tank by then - getting old sucks.

Tonight, I'm looking for a close game. The focus seems to be on both of these QBs and their receivers. Honestly, both QBs could be in NYC at the Heisman ceremony come December. Both guys are seasoned and will probably be high-ish draft picks next spring. And both O-lines should be fairly strong, but I do give the edge to Clemson - since Luke took over last season, he's been developing the hogs up front and they should be ready to give Klubnik enough time to throw the ball down the field. However, finding open receivers could be a little tricky as the LSU secondary is expected to be very good this season. LSU had a great o-line last season, but they lost 4 of their guys to the NFL and now appear dependent on some other guys that haven't completely proven themselves yet. Kelly has said he's planning to use at least 8 different o-line guys in rotation - that doesn't seem like a great idea, especially against what many believe is going to be the best defensive front in all of college football. In my view, more guys rotating in and out could disrupt the offensive rythm and especially it being the first game of the season, we could see some missed blocking assignments and general confusion from the LSU boys up front.

The Clemson d-line has Woods and Parker leading the charge - these guys are quick and big, and can clog up the middle and get in the backfield in a hurry. Both are projected to be high draft picks. Overall, this group of guys under Tom Allen could be unbelievably good, and they are going to deserve a huge portion of the credit or the blame for how this season turns out. Ever since Venebles left, Tiger nation has been searching for someone who could live up to his legacy as a DC, and most of us are hopeful that Allen is that guy.

If this game stays close, it could come down to a field goal. In that case, both kickers are really good and pretty evenly matched and I wouldn't give the edge to anyone.

Overall, I'm staying away from any ML or ATS bets in this one. However, I do like the under 57 for a small play. I expect less passing yards than many of the national talking heads, and I also think both teams could struggle just a bit in the red zone. I'm thinking this is something like a 27-24 type of game.

Go Clemson!!

@VinVortex

 So FYI, 95% of the posters here are degenerate addicts who consistently lose money and are only looking for their next fix.  As football season hits, it only gets worse.  As you'll hopefully soon learn, very few here are interested in actually handicapping a game or finding +EV spots.

Good luck.

I don't mind women announcers.... for womens sports.  In fact, I kind of expect and maybe even want there to be a woman in the booth for a womens soccer game or softball or a ladies tennis match or whatever.  But I can't stand listening to women call a mens sport.  For me, Doris Burke is the worst, closely followed by that old hag that used to announce Big10 football games, and the chick they had doing Sunday night baseball on ESPN.  So I end up watching a lot of games with the TV on mute.

Cleveland

Atlanta

Seattle

@Crusher13

 I appreciate the write up.

I think DEN could possibly struggle a ittle bit this year.  Yes, I like Payton and the player additions.  But we are talking about the AFC West here.  I could easily see them going 3-3 in the division and/or 5-6 against the rest.  I think O/U 9 wins is a pretty solid line.  If DEN can make the playoffs and they stay mostly healthy, they could be a really dangerous, battle-tested team.  And if there's a couple of key injuries in LAC and/or KC, a DEN division title is not out of the question.

So this time of year, I like to look at schedule details for an edge when it comes to betting season win totals.  Here's a few things that stand out to me: 

AFC East:

Bills - 4 night games, 4 of their first 5 games are at home 

Dolphins - 5 night games, play Redskins in Spain (week 11), late bye week (week 12)

Patriots - late bye week (week 14), only play one division game during weeks 6-13

Jets - play Broncos in London (week 6), 3 of their last 4 games are on the road

AFC North:

Ravens - 5 of their first 7 games are at home, they play Bengals twice in 3 weeks, 4 night games

Bengals - 4 of their first 6 games are on the road, play Ravens twice in 3 weeks, play Browns in their first game and last game, 4 night games

Browns - 4 of their first 6 games on the road, play Bengals in first and last game, play Vikings in London week 5 

Steelers - play Vikings in Ireland week 4, early bye week (week 5)

AFC South:

Texans - 4 night games, early bye (week 6), 7 of their last 11 games are at home

Colts - play Falcons in Berlin (week 10), 1 night game

Jaguars - play Rams in London (week 7), 6 of their last 10 games on the road including 3 out west, 1 night game

Titans - play 6 of their last 9 games at home, 0 night games

AFC West:

Broncos - 4 of their first 6 games on the road, play Jets in London (week 6), 4 night games, play Chiefs Christmas night

Chiefs - 7 night games, play Chargers in Brazil (week 1), play Broncos Christmas night

Raiders - play 3 games on east coast

Chargers - play Chiefs in Brazil (week 1), play 3 of their last 4 games on the road, play 3 games on east coast, 5 night games

NFC East:

Cowboys - 6 night games, play Redskins on Christmas day, play 4 of first 6 games on the road

Giants - late bye week (week 14), play 3 of last 4 games at home, play Eagles twice in 3 weeks

Eagles - play Giants twice in 3 weeks, play Redskins twice in 3 weeks, 5 night games

Redskins - play Dolphins in Spain (week 11), play Eagles twice in 3 weeks, 5 night games, play Cowboys Christmas day

NFC North:

Bears - early bye week (week 5), play 5 of first 8 games on the road

Lions - 5 night games, play 4 of first 6 games on the road

Packers - 4 night games, early bye week (week 5), play 4 of last 6 games on the road, play Bears twice in 3 weeks

Vikings - play Steelers in Ireland (week 4), play Browns in London (week 5), 4 night games, play 5 of first 8 games on the road

NFC South:

Falcons - early bye week (week 5), play Colts in Berlin (week 10), 5 night games

Panthers - late bye week (week 14), 1 night game, play 3 of first 4 games on the road, play Bucs twice in last 3 games

Saints - play 4 of last 6 games on the road, 0 night games,

Bucs - 4 night games, play Panthers twice in last 3 games, play 4 of last 6 games at home

NFC West:

Cardinals - play 4 of last 6 games on the road,

Rams - play Jaguars in London (week 7), play 4 of last 6 games on the road, 4 night games, play 5 games in Eastern time zone

49ers - 5 night games, late bye week (week 14), play 6 of first 9 games on the road, play 3 of last 4 games at home,

Seahawks - play 5 of last 8 games on the road, play 6 games in Eastern time zone, 4 night games, probably the worst travel schedule - home, @PIT, home, @AZ, home, @JAX, home, @WASH to start season

I'm a pretty big Braves fan - always have been, always will.  They are sucking eggs right now.  Honestly, I don't think they are a very good team this year.  I was hopeful heading into the season, but it's looking like my optimism was unfounded.  So until they get back to .500 (and that's definitely a big IF), it's a no-brainer to bet against them anytime you can get their opponent at plus money.  Yesterday, getting the Marlins at +215 was a gift.  Today, getting the fish at +135 is another gift.  It feels like this train is going to go for awhile, before the markets adjust.

@Macwestie1

 @Fuse

 @vankiep_0007

I'm happy to report the pork butt is resting in a cooler - I'll let the wife pull it.  I ended up with almost 2 gallons of 120 proof hearts.  I'll proof it down later - 90-95 is my sweet spot.  Ready for the game - bring it on!

So, to start off, I think this matchup is solid and the oddsmakers have it just about right - I just don't see a real edge anywhere.  99% of the time, in cases like this, I take a pass.  However, the wife watches 1 NFL game a year (SB) and she decided she wants a little money on it this year.  So, I bet 0.25 units on KC -1.  Here's my reasoning:

I trust Reid more than I do Sirianni.  I think Reid does a better job of getting his team through a bye week and handling the distractions that surround the SB.  I also trust his game prep and planning more than I do Sirianni.

Comparing OCs against DCs, I think KC has a slight edge.  Kellen Moore is pretty good, but I'd definitely give the edge to Spagnuolo when the PHI offense is on the field.  Also, Moore might be a little distracted as he just got the NO head coaching job.  When KC has the ball and Reid is calling plays, I think he and Fangio are pretty evenly matched and both of them think the same way in a lot of cases.

When it comes to QB's, I trust Mahomes more than I do Hurts.  Hurts is a great QB, don't get me wrong, but when push comes to shove, I like Mahomes a little better when it comes to game management, decision-making and overall ability to win the game on the last play.  Also, Mahomes has so much more big game experience.

Barkley is the big variable in this matchup.  I'd guess that Spagnuolo is going to concentrate on slowing him down, forcing Hurts to beat him.  However, if Spags calls the wrong defensive at the wrong time (and chances are this will happen once or twice at least), Barkley will definitely make them pay.  I also do have faith in Hurts' ability to identify those situations and change a play call at the line of scrimmage to get the ball in Barkley's hands.

In any expected close game, we should spend a little time looking at the kickers.  I give the edge to Butker.  Granted, neither him nor Elliot are that great from long range.  However, from 40+ yards out, Elliot is 9-16, while Butker is 6-9.  If the game is on the line and somebody has to kick a 52 yarder to win the SB, I'm trusting Butker more than Elliot.

I'm about to throw a pork butt on the smoker and I've got 10 gallons of bloody butcher corn mash that's ready to run, so my day is pretty well planned out.

GL all and here's hoping we get some good commercials this year.

Right now on BM, it's -111 vs -118.

@AJWayne

 I say let him speak.  The more he says the more he reveals his true character.

I think the Deacons keep it close, at home, against a very good Duke team.

Huh?  So calling a guy unintelligent is racist, but saying what you said isn't?

@RXistrash

Since you keep bringing race into the discussion, let's talk about the NFC Championship game this weekend, featuring 2 black QBs.  Both of them are more intelligent and bring more leadership skills to the table than LJ, by far - It's not even close.  They both know how to lead.  They both know how to command a locker room. They both have demonstrated an ability to win games when it counts.  Unlike LJ, they make the players around them better. They both have much more upside than LJ.  Hurts has been to the SB and Daniels is a rookie with almost as many playoff wins as LJ.  If I'm building a team right now, I'm picking Hurts and Daniels over LJ, without a doubt.

@RXistrash

The problem with LJ has nothing to do with race.  It has everything to do with LJ's complete lack of leadership ability.  He's not a leader.  He doesn't know how to lead men.  He doesn't know how to command a locker room.  He doesn't know how to put a team on his back and carry them to the win when it counts the most.  He doesn't have the ability to make the guys around him better.  He doesn't have the leadership skills and tools to lead a team to a championship win.  All the greats have those skills.  LJ doesn't.  And so, yet again, BAL gets a 10+ win season and nothing to show for it.

Just bumping this again.  Another good year for LJ and the Ravens, but nothing great.  He still just can't get it done when it really counts.  His playoff record now stands at 3-5 and he has yet to win a conference championship.  My prediction for next year - both Henry and LJ get hurt and BAL squeaks into the playoffs, where they lose in the WC round.

@vanzack

 Just curious about the status of your house in Asheville.  We go up to Avery County every year to get our Christmas tree.  This year we loaded up a bobcat and some chain saws and spent a couple of days up there clearing trees and debris.  People really are still living in tents up there.

@DefenseWinsSB

 Here's what you should do:  Go back and read EVERY SINGLE POST you've ever made on this site about losing your a$$ and quitting.  Then read them again.  AND AGAIN.  AND AGAIN!!!!  Print them out and post them all over your house - on the bathroom mirror, on the TV, etc...  Read them while you're brushing your teeth or drinking coffee or trying to find Family Guy on the TV. Keep reading them over and over and over again until you're actually ready to quit, and then do that.  If you have the urge to bet again, go back and read them again.  And in between reading all those posts over and over again, get yourself a job man, even if it's at McD's flipping burgers.  Force yourself to be productive - gambling isn't productive for you.  Own that fact.  If you can't own it, go back and re-read all of your posts AGAIN!