bluecompass

@Macwestie1

 @Fuse

 @vankiep_0007

I'm happy to report the pork butt is resting in a cooler - I'll let the wife pull it.  I ended up with almost 2 gallons of 120 proof hearts.  I'll proof it down later - 90-95 is my sweet spot.  Ready for the game - bring it on!

So, to start off, I think this matchup is solid and the oddsmakers have it just about right - I just don't see a real edge anywhere.  99% of the time, in cases like this, I take a pass.  However, the wife watches 1 NFL game a year (SB) and she decided she wants a little money on it this year.  So, I bet 0.25 units on KC -1.  Here's my reasoning:

I trust Reid more than I do Sirianni.  I think Reid does a better job of getting his team through a bye week and handling the distractions that surround the SB.  I also trust his game prep and planning more than I do Sirianni.

Comparing OCs against DCs, I think KC has a slight edge.  Kellen Moore is pretty good, but I'd definitely give the edge to Spagnuolo when the PHI offense is on the field.  Also, Moore might be a little distracted as he just got the NO head coaching job.  When KC has the ball and Reid is calling plays, I think he and Fangio are pretty evenly matched and both of them think the same way in a lot of cases.

When it comes to QB's, I trust Mahomes more than I do Hurts.  Hurts is a great QB, don't get me wrong, but when push comes to shove, I like Mahomes a little better when it comes to game management, decision-making and overall ability to win the game on the last play.  Also, Mahomes has so much more big game experience.

Barkley is the big variable in this matchup.  I'd guess that Spagnuolo is going to concentrate on slowing him down, forcing Hurts to beat him.  However, if Spags calls the wrong defensive at the wrong time (and chances are this will happen once or twice at least), Barkley will definitely make them pay.  I also do have faith in Hurts' ability to identify those situations and change a play call at the line of scrimmage to get the ball in Barkley's hands.

In any expected close game, we should spend a little time looking at the kickers.  I give the edge to Butker.  Granted, neither him nor Elliot are that great from long range.  However, from 40+ yards out, Elliot is 9-16, while Butker is 6-9.  If the game is on the line and somebody has to kick a 52 yarder to win the SB, I'm trusting Butker more than Elliot.

I'm about to throw a pork butt on the smoker and I've got 10 gallons of bloody butcher corn mash that's ready to run, so my day is pretty well planned out.

GL all and here's hoping we get some good commercials this year.

Right now on BM, it's -111 vs -118.

@AJWayne

 I say let him speak.  The more he says the more he reveals his true character.

I think the Deacons keep it close, at home, against a very good Duke team.

Huh?  So calling a guy unintelligent is racist, but saying what you said isn't?

@RXistrash

Since you keep bringing race into the discussion, let's talk about the NFC Championship game this weekend, featuring 2 black QBs.  Both of them are more intelligent and bring more leadership skills to the table than LJ, by far - It's not even close.  They both know how to lead.  They both know how to command a locker room. They both have demonstrated an ability to win games when it counts.  Unlike LJ, they make the players around them better. They both have much more upside than LJ.  Hurts has been to the SB and Daniels is a rookie with almost as many playoff wins as LJ.  If I'm building a team right now, I'm picking Hurts and Daniels over LJ, without a doubt.

@RXistrash

The problem with LJ has nothing to do with race.  It has everything to do with LJ's complete lack of leadership ability.  He's not a leader.  He doesn't know how to lead men.  He doesn't know how to command a locker room.  He doesn't know how to put a team on his back and carry them to the win when it counts the most.  He doesn't have the ability to make the guys around him better.  He doesn't have the leadership skills and tools to lead a team to a championship win.  All the greats have those skills.  LJ doesn't.  And so, yet again, BAL gets a 10+ win season and nothing to show for it.

Just bumping this again.  Another good year for LJ and the Ravens, but nothing great.  He still just can't get it done when it really counts.  His playoff record now stands at 3-5 and he has yet to win a conference championship.  My prediction for next year - both Henry and LJ get hurt and BAL squeaks into the playoffs, where they lose in the WC round.

@vanzack

 Just curious about the status of your house in Asheville.  We go up to Avery County every year to get our Christmas tree.  This year we loaded up a bobcat and some chain saws and spent a couple of days up there clearing trees and debris.  People really are still living in tents up there.

@DefenseWinsSB

 Here's what you should do:  Go back and read EVERY SINGLE POST you've ever made on this site about losing your a$$ and quitting.  Then read them again.  AND AGAIN.  AND AGAIN!!!!  Print them out and post them all over your house - on the bathroom mirror, on the TV, etc...  Read them while you're brushing your teeth or drinking coffee or trying to find Family Guy on the TV. Keep reading them over and over and over again until you're actually ready to quit, and then do that.  If you have the urge to bet again, go back and read them again.  And in between reading all those posts over and over again, get yourself a job man, even if it's at McD's flipping burgers.  Force yourself to be productive - gambling isn't productive for you.  Own that fact.  If you can't own it, go back and re-read all of your posts AGAIN!

So it's no secret, I'm a Clemson fan.  Here's a couple of my thoughts about the playoff selections, whatever that's worth, probably nothing, but anyway:

First - so, under the current system, a premium is given to conference champions, well, most of them.  The top 4 get the top 4 seeds and an automatic bye - great.  Why is the 5th conference champion not automatically given the 5 seed?  Either we should put a premium on winning a conference championship for ALL conference championship teams, or we shouldn't give any of them any reward for winning their conference.  And for the record, I agree, Clemson didn't deserve a bye.

Second - I understand putting a value on winning a conference championship, but you do so at the expense of having the best 12 teams in the playoffs.  Isn't that what it should be about - finding out which team is the best?  You've got several inferior teams in the mix, and some much better teams left out completely.  I say give the first 4 seeds and automatic byes to the 4 highest ranked teams - conference champions or not, and give the remaining 8 seeds to the teams ranked 5-12.  And a team like Clemson, that wins a conference championship, but is clearly not one of the best 12 teams, should be left out.

Third - Is Alabama better than SMU and Boise State and AZ State and Indiana?  Yes.  However, Alabama couldn't find a way to beat Vandy, so they really have no one to blame but themselves.  Same with SC, MIA and Ole Miss.

Fourth - If the committee doesn't take into account strength of schedule, which it appears they don't, at least not with any meanful weight, then I think it's bad for college football overall.  This is especially true for the fans, because we're not going to see as many regular season big games played between highly ranked teams, which is what the fans want to see.  There's no real reason for 2 really good non-conference schools to play each other now.  Indiana played no one, except OSU, where they got destroyed, and there they are with the 10th seed.

Fifth - In my view, the college game needs to move rapidly in 1 of 2 directions:  Either get rid of conferences altogether or go back to having 8 FBS conferences, with all 8 conference champions making the playoffs, with 4 at-large teams.  With NIL and the transfer portal can of worms already opened up, getting rid of conferences is probably the way to go.

Sixth - No matter how many teams they allow into the playoffs, someone will always be the odd man out. 

Seventh - the committee is made up of 13 members, and a lot of them are current ADs, ex-coaches, etc...  Perhaps we'd be better off expanding the committee to 25 members, with at least 12 of them not having a college athletic background.  Get a stat geek from MIT, a psychology prof from Stanford, a janitor from Ball State and maybe a a diesel mechanic from Cheyenne - these people would offer every bit as valuable insight and opinion as the current committee members do.

FWIW, this is the 2nd time this season the Bills have fit the Bator rule.  In Week 2, they beat MIA 31-10, in Week 3 they beat JAX 47-10, and in Week 4 they got killed by BAL.

I think the line opened at +11.5.  I got it at +11.  If I can get a home team in a division game with double digit points, I'm gonna take it every time.

TEN -14.5

ALA -21.5

The Vols are coming off an ugly road loss to Arkansas, where they scored just 14 points.  The Vols offense looked terrible and they were shutout in the first half.  I think the TEN offense shows out tonight at home against Florida.  

The Tide are coming off one of the biggest upsets in CFB history, and their defense gave up 40 pts to Vandy.    The Tide defense is going to wreak havoc in the SC backfield. 

Now is the time for both of these teams to make a statement, especially at home, and especially before they face each other in Knoxville next weekend.

GL

@Greenandwhite23

Dude, why do you keep jacking up my sandwich order.  Smoked turkey with dijon on wheat is difficult?  Apparently it is, because you bring me a ham and cheese on rye.  And then you have the nerve to ask me for a tip so you can put air in your bike tire.  Get my order right the next time and I might let you use the air compressor in my garage. 

The Saints have a rough schedule coming up.  At DAL, then home against PHI, then @ATL, @KC and home against TB.

They also have an aging team.  Carr - 33, Kamara - 29, Taysom Hill - 34, Cam Jordan - 35, D. Davis - 35, Nate Shepard - 30, Mathieu - 32

My book has the NYY/CHC game set at 8.

Last night, LJ rushed 16 times, 3 more than Derrick Henry.  Was that the game plan coming in?  Is that the plan moving forward?  You go and pay the guy $250 million guaranteed and then have him run the ball 16 times?  Dude is going to turn 28 years old before the end of this season.  With as much wear and tear he's already had in 6 seasons, every hit from now on is going to start adding up fast.  Especially since he's dropped some weight - he might be even quicker but also less durable?  Yeah, a couple of those runs last night were scrambles, but still.  A running QB is not going to get you to the promised land in the NFL.   Why don't teams realize this? And if they keep running him like this, he'll prolly miss another 4-6 games this season with injuries.

BAL went out and got Henry, but they didn't utilize him last night.  How many screen passes did LJ throw to Henry?  1-2?  He had 0 catches last night and got only 13 touches.  Henry caught 60+ balls over the previous 2 seasons combined, and BAL can't even put him in the flat as a relief valve for LJ every once in awhile?

I smell another 10 win season and a quick exit from the playoffs.

Ruh-Roh