bodio

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replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Well, shit-stain Vavlerde on the mound with a 1-run lead facing Yankees' best hitters. Anyone else expecting a walk-off for the Bombers? View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 07, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by bodio: 2011 MLB Record: 201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units 2011 MLB Playoffs: 6 - 2 @ 75% for +4.0 Units Thur 10/06 #1: Detroit Tigers (1st 5 innings) +150 Back at it tomorrow fellas. Let's see if Yanks can come back in this one View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 07, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by TucsonClip: Great call bodio. Had a lot of friends try to tell me Nova was the better pitcher, and figured the Yanks would jump all over Fister cause of his stats last game. I just laughed... You knew better! View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 07, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by BuiltToDestroy: oh you like that casino on fremont street? i figure you to be more of a bellagio or palms kinda guy MGM Grand Baccarat -- that's the kind of guy I am :) View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 07, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by RobertParker: Bodio, where are you seeing this info? From what I found, Nova pitches just as well against left as well as right. I just looked at some stats from ESPN (https://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/30400/ivan-nova). Not trying to say anything about your pick, just trying to learn a little more about capping baseball. You seem like the man to try to learn from. BOL tonight Nova's xFIP against lefties was 4.37 this season. It was 3.95 against right-handers View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by Beaman17: Bodio, Do you play 1 unit per bet? good luck tonight! Yes, consistent 1-unit per bet on every wager I make. I don't play too many 20 Unit mega-bombs, and 50* STAR locks of the year, or 100 Golden-nuggets Games of my Life View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by Werker: I just read an article proposing that Girardi should and might pitch Nova just one time through the lineup and then utilize the awesome and well rested bullpen to get through the rest of the game. Are you a bit worried about this? Or do you think it'll only take the once? Or that Girardi definitely won't do this? haha...that would be something eh? Analysts with articles like these always come up with solid ideas. Managers very rarely actually execute these out-of-the-box thinking. Nova should get through 5 at least unless he gets 'rocked' early! View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by jdr016: I think you misunderstood. Fister's effective start (7 IP, 3 ER) against the Yankees was the first time they saw him. The playoff game, where he had the WHIP of 2.14, was the second time they saw him. I was highlighting that the point your making against Nova, also applies against Fister in this case. Sure it does, but this is Fister's 4th or 5th career start against Yankees. I was just pointing out that even though Nova is a mediocre pitcher in my opinion, he had a better than expected performance against Detroit in his first career start against them possibly due to the 'unfamiliarity' factor. View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's NHL Thur 10/06 in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by JMAG: ah I see What does it mean for a book to be 'square'? they cater to 'casual' bettors, so their limits are low and their odds/spreads are over-inflated to the favorites and the overs (public plays) View Post \| View Thread	bodio	55	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's NHL Thur 10/06 in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by JMAG: Hey bodio do you know if Bodog has 1st period NHL lines? Not sure, but I don't think they do It's a very square and shitty book but they have more 'value' on dogs and I like using them for 'teasers' in football as their lines are shaded towards the favorites . View Post \| View Thread	bodio	55	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by zinganation: -110 Hmmm... Detroit would get 3 more outs though if yankees have the lead, but the bullpen discrepancy is huge. That's not a bad wager IMO. I do expect Detroit to have a lead after 5 but then Yankees have a great chance to come back. View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by zinganation: If the BP for Tigers is terrible in comparison, is the Yankees 2H ML a good bet? What are the odds? View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's NHL Thur 10/06 in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by giangho_viet: Thanks for the pick Bodio , I dont know where my local got his line at , but his book is super sharp . Again he got Flyers at only +105 The odds are dropping like flyers (get it? ) Your local's odds are really low though. Pinny's at +114, 5Dimes at +115, even BoDog is +110 (I placed my wager at BoDog as I find them to have 'value' on dogs in hockey wagering). Even my locals have it at +115. If you can get Boston at -105 with your local and then place a +115 bet on the Flyers on-line you can have a nice little arbitrage scenario. Depending on your limits you could come out with a $100 or $200 risk-free profit. :) View Post \| View Thread	bodio	55	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's NHL Thur 10/06 in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by ionutt79: nice play Bodio, I think this match going to under 5.5 good luck No idea. Ask the 'experts' to break it down. View Post \| View Thread	bodio	55	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by brthestar: Bodio.....my book has the 1st 5 at +135 for Detroit. Would you still wager this one considering the smaller return? Thanks as always and ditto on all of the "praises" you're getting in your threads. Keep on keepin on brother! Yes I would. View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by afgking4life: Great pick bodio, I got it at +150 at my local. Any picks for the NHL opener tonight? yeah...Flyers +120 Go here View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Bodio's NHL Thur 10/06 in Penalty Box I'll reiterate again that I don't handicap NHL. I can't even name 5 players in the league. I do handicap odds movement and situations. Basically, this hockey betting system is predicated on the fact that there is just not that many people wagering on this sport. Therefore, major 'odds' moves are more so influenced by the 'sharps' than some of the more popular sports like football, basketball, and baseball. Hopefully the system shows the profit again this year. I'm going to play 1/3 of my normal bet amount on these wagers. Let's get to it: 2011 NHL #1: Philadelphia Flyers +120 Good luck! ========================================= Updated records: '10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130 '10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600 '10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800 '10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400 '10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400 '10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200 '10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400 '10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100 '10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400 '10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175 '10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575 '11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810 ---------------------------------------------------- TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390 _________________ "A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned" View Post \| View Thread	bodio	55	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by Czar_10: sup Bodio i been tailing your picks in the playoffs too and what can i add, you are by far the best here in covers...! i cant agree more of your write up, i been trying to copy your style of capping games but not with advanced stats as you of course and im so proud i noticed what you point out in the writeup. my first lean was Det all game and the under but i pass on that one cuz we all know what can happen, but you nail it with your pick you are absolutly right about the BPs, i dont play much 1st5's but this is the right spot to do it. i have DET 1st5's +145 and + 0.5 - 105 that positive runline looks ok too. As always bodio thnx for your time and i always be grateful that you share your time and knowledge i have learned tons cuz your write ups.. ok lets do this.... what are your leans for today NCAAF? Glad to hear we're on the same side. Kind of liking the OVER in the CAL/ORE game. Might be a small action play for me. View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by maryland64: glcuk bodio. I feel that detroit will get 7 stong out of fister and close this thing out in NY. Great writeup Could definitely happen. View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs) in Penalty Box Quote Originally Posted by DestinedWinner: Bodio do you like the Tigers +0.5 for first 4 innings @ 2.05? Sure, why not View Post \| View Thread	bodio	209	October 06, 2011 View Post \| View Thread

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