boldtiger

bellator 98

To find out Torrey is fighting Ward, I am all over Torrey.  Looking at them it seems like Ward has the physique but i will play on Torrey to win easy.  I could be wrong, but i see mismatch. 

3 units  Justin Torrey +120


Another fight i really like is Parlo over Rogers.  Rogers seems to be slowing down since that Spang KO, I know he got back to winning but that war against Cramer showed his holes and he probably lost some fighting years.  Parlo is crisp can't wait to bang with someone and Rogers won't be going for takedowns.  I could see a finish, the line is nice.

2 units  Mikkel Parlo +100


-boldtiger

Felipe Arantes vs Kevin Souza - love this play on Arantes.  i see Souza having little chance keeping this fight standing.  once Arantes gets Souza down he will be doing big damage and a ground and pound or a submission is likely.  not worried about Souza and his 12 ko's in 13 wins, his long frame and wide stance is bad news and he won't be able to land anything.  Arantes hasn't been ko'd and has only lost to the best, Souza not there right now.  line is moving up up up.

3 units  Felipe Arantes -240

Glover Texeira vs Ryan Bader - don't see how Bader can win.  this line is so low, i'm going to play.  Bader is lower tier and he's out in Brazil.  I don't even think Bader can land a takedown.  this is a wipeout.

2 units  Glover Texeira -440


Ali Bagautinov vs Marcos Vinicius - see this fight ending quickly.  Vinicius coming off a ko loss, doesn't match up at all against Ali.  Bagautinov will be throwing hard going for the kill and if that doesn't work, he will be throwing him around the cage or controlling Marcos with his strength.

2 units  Ali Bagautinov -320


"opinions" on other fights;

Rafael Natal -260 vs Tor Troeng +220 - only underdog i think has a shot to win.  Troeng on his feet is in good shape, so if it stays there and i think it can, we could see a ko.  Natal may have enough tricks up his sleeve but i will go with Troeng.


Ronaldo Souza -260 vs Yushin Okami +220 - staying away from this one.  Okami big enough to make this a dogfight.  I would lean to Souza to use his speed and be able to land strikes but i don't have faith he can keep Okami down on the mat.  Okami actually pretty decent on his feet at times and i could see this being a real difficult night for Souza.  Pass.

good luck with your plays,

-boldtiger

Wanted to wait for a good card to put up some plays in here.  Looking for a nice day.  As always I put up what I feel will be the best 2 way number is in my own opinion.  good luck everyone!

Anthony Pettis -140 vs Ben Henderson +120 – I know this isn't the line but this is what I think it is, maybe it will go there tomorrow late in the day.  Henderson has been just getting by in his recent wins, a very talented fighter but his time is up.  I seen something in both fighters that makes this a strong pick for me, Henderson does NOT want to stand with Pettis at all.  Look for Henderson to attempt takedown after takedown.  Pettis KNOWS he has him, he will stalk and release an arsenal of kicks and punches.  I know Henderson is tough and its hard to imagine him getting finished, but as this crowd goes bananas, it will happen.  There’s a reason I have Pettis the favorite, he is the favorite to win this fight.  I think Henderson’s only chance is if he catches Anthony in a guillotine other than that its all Pettis.

3 units  Anthony Pettis -140

Al Iaquinta -200 vs Ryan Couture +180 – Don’t understand how Iaquinta is the big favorite?  Becuase he trains with Chris Weidman?  Couture is bigger, stronger and has more skills.  I honestly think Iaquinta should be at 145 because he doesn’t have the strength it takes to compete at 155.  With confidence I see Couture bouncing back from his loss to Pearson, he might even get a finish.

3 units  Ryan Couture +180

Erik Koch -120 vs Dustin Poirier +100 – seems to me Koch just can’t get his career going, injury after injury has delayed his promising upside.  Koch has great size, he is a very strong striker but I question his endurance.  I might be a bit biased because I really like Poirier’s story, his heart and the effort he brings to the cage.  Last time out, he performed poorly, I think he will come out blazing here and I don’t think Koch can match his intensity.  As the fight goes longer, it favors Poirier.  Look for a 2nd or 3rd round stoppage for Dustin.

3 units  Dustin Poirier +100

Josh Barnett -140 vs Frank Mir +120 – lots of reasons I like Mir.  For years now, Barnett has faced non-ufc competition and Mir has held his own against the very best in the world.  This fight in my opinion, comes down to strength of schedule.  I really think Mir as a grappler is the better guy.  Barnett is more physical and more aggressive which i’ll admit makes him the favorite but not by as much as the oddsmakers think.  Still, Mir has much cleaner standup skills than Barnett and I just have this hunch Mir will “outclass” him.  I can’t go the limit but I will go with Frank Mir to wow the crowd in Milwaukee with something special.

2 units  Frank Mir +120

"opinions" on other fights;

Chad Mendes -700 vs Clay Guida +550 – I know, -700 but think about it how is Guida going to take Mendes down and control him?  He can’t.  After Mendes stops a couple of those takedowns attempts, its an on the feet battle(remember Guida vs Maynard?)  Well, Mendes is faster and hits just as hard so Guida will get caught sometime during rounds 1, 2, or 3.  Don’t worry, this line could be -1000 its nothing personal to Guida who has been a great mma fighter for years, but to evolve with the game today these younger guys have big advantages all around.

Jamie Varner -160 vs Gleison Tibau +140 – just feel like I know these fighters.  Tibau a very tough out has fought in the ufc for years and has a 12-7 record in those fights.  Varner once a top lightweight has rebounded to get his career back and I think he’s just in a class above Tibau.  I might be wrong but thats how I see it.  So even though this fight will be close and Tibau has the stronger resume, I will side with Varner to win a decision based on his boxing and wrestling combo.

-boldtiger

Demetrious Johnson -450 vs John Moraga +350 – really feel like Johnson’s days are numbered, he’s very fast, he’s got a hell of a gas tank, and he’s very tough but he’s another decision fighter that doesn’t hurt people.  I still feel like Dodson is top flyweight and will eventually get the belt, but for now its Moraga who will come forward and bully Demetrious until the end of round 5.  there’s some chance that Moraga will catch him in a submission, possibly catch him with a good shot but more likely Johnson will be moving and trying to land strikes all night.  Moraga won’t fade in the later rounds,  Demetrious will have to hurt him with something and i just don’t see that happening.  Pressure builds for “Mighty Mouse”, having had his first child and fighting in his hometown, and i see Moraga not getting the respect he deserves.  I see Moraga looking like the favorite by the end of round 2 and i expect him to win.

3 units  John Moraga +350

 

Rory MacDonald -220 vs Jake Ellenberger +190 – don’t particularly like either guy, but i have a very strong opinion on this fight.  Ellenberger ok yes very good power in his hands, but for maybe 2 minutes after that a very average fighter.  If Rory were to stand up with Ellenberger, he would just have to survive the 1st round and i think that he could still win this fight on his feet, BUT he’s going to do the smart thing and thats to manhandle Ellenberger, take him to the mat and beat him up.  Its just a matter of how much of a beating is Jake willing to take before taping out or covering up until the ref stops it.  Rory is so big and strong at welterweight,  he stands straight up and can be hit but its a low percentage play to hope Ellenberger catches him with a punch in the 1st round.  Big difference between these 2 fighters.

3 units  Rory MacDonald -220

 

Jorge Masvidal -240 vs Michael Chiesa +200 – based on the way Masvidal fights(counter  punching) i would be very uncomfortable laying a big number with him.  i am a little surprised at this number and as  it rises to -300, i have to do what i believe and thats make a play on Chiesa.  the young TUF winner has his toughest test but i think he can avoid damage and make this his fight.  it will be interesting to see if he can get Masvidal down, he’s shown serious finishing skills when he gets your back.  Jorge came in overweight, maybe he’s overlooking him?  Masvidal last finished someone in nov 2009, Chiesa finished his first 2 ufc opponents.

2 units  Michael Chiesa +200

 

John Albert -170 vs Yaotzin Meza +150 – don’t think Albert is better than Meza, will make a small play here.  Meza got ko’d by Chad Mendes in his UFC debut but i think he will redeem himself here and i just see him having better overall skills.  Albert is the stronger guy but i see Meza controlling the action and maybe securing a submission.  pressure is on Albert and he’s already shown he makes mistakes in the cage.

1 unit  Yaotzin Meza +150

 

 

“opinions” on other fights;

 

Danny Castillo -180 vs Tim Means +160 – i can see many taking Means as a pretty decent underdog, but Castillo will follow the gameplan and take Means down for the majority of 15 minutes.  maybe some tense moments as Means goes for the KO but Castillo seems to be at a level where he can handle the pressure.  didn’t like the line and want nothing to do with this one, but its Castillo getting the win(i think)

 

Liz Carmouche -600 vs Jessica Andrade +475 – miles apart at this point of their careers, line could be -1500.  wipeout.

 

Robbie Lawler -280 vs Bobby Voelker +240 – both guys have very good power, but Lawler moves much better.  feels like Lawler has done a lot for being just 31 years old and i think he’s at his very best right now.  Voelker got “robbed” in his last fight against Cote, and will fight hard but standing straight up and not moving his feet, the KO is going to be quck and decisive.  Lawler gets another one.

 

good luck with your plays,

-boldtiger

plays look good, good luck!

Cub Swanson -240 vs Dennis Siver +200 - the "swagger" of Swanson makes the difference here.  Cub has found his game and is at his very best right now, don't see him having much trouble in this one.  Siver has dropped down to featherweight where he has won his first 2 fights(but both of those guys Nunes and Phan are on their way out)  to me he looks terrible cutting down to this weight.  i wouldn't be surprised if Siver moves back up soon, as he doesn't seem healthy, remember this guy used to fight at 170.  watching Siver, i don't think he can hurt Swanson so this could be a wipeout.  with 4 straight  impressive wins, i know Cub is thinking about a rematch with Aldo and after ufc 162 he may get the next title shot.  really a great story to see a Cub get past his health issues and show us all what he can do.

 3 units  Cub Swanson -240

 

Mark Munoz -110 vs Tim Boetsch -110 - its been about 1 year since Munoz has fought, he was one fight away from a title shot then the injuries and the depression, now he's in shape and ready to go?  or is he..  Boetsch was rolling along until Costa Philippou gave him his first loss at middleweight(now 4-1)  when i break this fight down, i see Boetsch dominating.  Boetsch will come forward and i think he's just too strong for Munoz.  i don't like the way Munoz reacts when he gets hit, he covers up or just drops down and if he does that in this fight he's going to get finished.  i really don't see Munoz getting a takedown, and i also think the layoff with his age(35) will work against him.  really i see this as Tim's fight to lose, better strikes, more durable, stronger and busier which will give him the edge in close rounds

 3 units  Tim Boetsch -110

 

Anderson Silva -270 vs Chris Weidman +230 - lots of attention on Weidman going into this one and sure he's good, a strong physical middleweight who has yet to look vulnerable in any of his fights.  BUT what is all this talk that he will just run through Silva by being physically dominant taking him down and finishing him with punches or a submission??  this is stupid talk, the best opponent Weidman has faced was Demian Maia(who is now at 170) and he couldn't hold him down for more than 10 seconds.  sure he got several takedowns but he did no damage and Maia was able to power right up to his feet each time.  Anderson has made it look easy for years and despite being 38 years old, he doesn't look like he's lost anything yet.  So breaking the fight down, will Weidman be able to take Anderson down?  answer is probably yes, but will he be able to keep him down and do any damage? i'm going to say probably not.  on the feet, Weidman doesn't have much of a chance, and i believe him when he says he's going into the fight expecting to win.  problem is, thats exactly what Silva likes and he excels when someone actually fights him.  Anderson hits very very hard and nobody can take his punches.  look for this to be just another highlight finish for the "the spider".

 2 units  Anderson Silva -270

 

Andrew Craig -160 vs Chris Leben +140- Leben has been in some great fights over the years but i don't see him having much left in the tank.  Craig is on his way up, a strong, very athletic middleweight able to mix his wrestling with a variety of strikes including a nice head kick.  Leben moves slow, he hits hard but now everyone can see it coming so as he tries to reinvent himself i can't imagine any changes to his game helping  him win fights.  i see Craig being first, landing punches and getting takedowns.  For his size, Craig has shown really good cardio and i see him having a decided strength advantage which will help him control the fight.

2 units  Andrew Craig -160

 

 

"opinions"on other fights;

 

Gabriel Gonzaga -200 vs Dave Herman +180 - should be a fun fight.  Herman somehow still getting to fight despite getting finished in his last 3 fights.  seems like Herman has a great chance at victory as he does have punching power, the one weakness for Gonzaga(ko'd in 6 of his 7 losses)  one thing for sure when it comes to Gonzaga, if he wins he gets you good; all 14 of his wins are finishes.  line is perfect and on the money, Gonzaga is better, more well rounded but very vulnerable.  nothing strong here, but go with the odds that Gonzaga will drag him down and submit him at some point.

 

Tim Kennedy -120 vs Roger Gracie +100 - at first i thought Tim was a strong play but the more i look at the fight the more i realize this is going to be tight.  Kennedy's best weapon is a lightning fast "shot" when he goes for takedowns but  because of his heavily muscled frame, when he stands, he's a little stiff and stands upright as he strikes.  Gracie is a pretty big guy and has the reach to give Tim lots of problems standing.  If the fight hits the ground, Gracie is at the top of the food chain as a grappler, and although Kennedy can probably get some slams and/or takedowns he might not want to put himself in danger.  If its a striking battle, it will be a close decision.  i will lean to Gracie in this one.

 

Frankie Edgar -600 vs Charles Oliveira +475 - sorry to say but i see Edgar as "fade only" already.  Edgar spent too many rounds as a lightweight, he should probably be a bantamweight as you can see he's not a "big" featherweight.  Edgar has gone 5 rounds in 6 of his last 7 fights and i think he will begin to show the effects of those wars probably in his next 2 or 3 fights.  Charles has very good strikes and will be confident when the fight hits the ground as he has a very dangerous submission game.  not sure Edgar will even go for takedowns, he may just go with striking and moving as a game plan for victory.  i'm going to say Frankie wins, but will pay close attention to see if Edgar's decline is coming.  just not enough confidence in Oliveira due to his recent run(2-3-1)

 

good luck with your plays,

-boldtiger

ugh... did not see that coming ..

good luck with the main card guys!

plike 112 - simply google a fighters name and of course youtube

Hale vs Martinez - i meant to say not sure why the line is so low "so i won't pass despite the late switch" 

Richard Hale -160 vs Ryan Martinez +140 – nice opportunity for Martinez, who steps in for an injured Queiroz on late notice and faces Hale.  looking at both guys, Martinez is getting better but Hale on another level at this stage.  Not sure about why the line is so low but i will pass because of the late switch.  Still i think Hale is the better fighter all the way around and i expect him to be win.  They do have a common opponent that they both fought last year, Mike Wessel.  Martinez lost a split decision, Hale won by 1st rd ko.

 

2 units  Richard Hale -160

 

Vitaly Minakov -600 vs Ron Sparks +475 – Remember this name, Vitaly Minakov a Sambo world champion in just his 2nd fight in the U.S., is bringing some fast and heavy hands along with a special talent of throwing guys down(he’s a heavyweight) and taking quick dominant position of them.  with just 10 fights on his resume, he will only get better and poor Ron Sparks steps in and has to face this beast.  Sparks does bring the power but will have no answer once he gets slammed down to the mat.  normally, i wouldn’t touch a high line like this, but this russian is going to be a champion and one of the top heavyweights in the world.  Since the line is down under -500, i will make a play on this future star.

 

1 unit  Vitaly Minakov -600

 

Renato Sobral -140 vs Jacob Noe +120 – Sobral  should be able to take Noe down and beat him up but as we’ve seen this isn’t the same old “babalu”  he’s looking slow out there and even worse when he gets hit, he’s just going out.  Noe definitely can absorb some shots so if he can keep it standing i think the fight is in his favor.  If Sobral can get an early takedown, i will hope Jacob can get up, still at this point i’m going to fade Sobral as i don’t see him fighting at a high level for much longer.  line has gone up over -200 which surprises me because i see this as a pretty close to even fight.

 

1 unit  Jacob Noe +120

 

“opinions” on other fights;

War Machine -330 vs Blas Avena +270 – line has come down considerably, definite question marks for War Machine as he’s been out of action for nearly 2 years.  Before a pretty aggressive fighter that doesn’t give up, he has been given a dangerous opponent in Blas Avena, who has finished all 8 of his wins, but he has been stopped in all 6 of his losses(all by ko/tko).  Should be a lot of drama and maybe a fun fight.  Coming off the long layoff, i will fade War Machine and take Blas to win the fight by stoppage.

 

King Mo -1000 vs Seth Petruzelli +700 – another big line drop as King Mo possibly “ripe” for the upset after getting ko’d by Emanuel Newton last time out.  I didn’t like Mo’s answers about what went wrong in that fight, he said he just needs to tweak a few things??  what?  he’s just walking forward with no respect for his opponents and its not like he’s a seasoned striker, he’s got a lot to learn.  When things don’t go well for Petruzelli he has shown to give up and fade away in fights, but his power is real.  i will guess Petruzelli will be a popular dog, but i will “pass” and just watch it.

 

good luck with your plays,

boldtiger

hey good luck, you can easily win them all

cheering for pierson, good luck.  barry vs jordan should be interesting

WSOF 3

One play gets my attention and its on Justin Gaethje -300 over Brian Cobb.  See this as the old school vs the new school of fighter, Gaethje is aggressive and strong and he will run right through Cobb who gets the journeyman tag as he’s been fighting all over the world over the last several years.  Cobb has good size and he’s durable but i don’t think he will be able to handle the speed and power of Justin.  Its a little pricey but this kid won’t be stopped yet.

 

2 units  Justin Gaethje -300

UFC 161

 

Tyron Woodley -150 vs Jake Shields +130 - i feel the ufc would like to cut Shields, sticking him on this undercard against who they think is an emerging talent in Woodley.  Jake has all the advantages in this fight, in close and on the ground, Shields will take Woodley to school and even his much criticized standup will be good enough in this one.  Woodley with just 2 ko's looked great against Heiron landing a big shot and getting the finish but that was seriously a fluke.  Truth is Jake should be -200 and i think he will be great in this one.

 

3 units  Jake Shields +130

 

Pat Barry -120 vs Shawn Jordan +100 - Jordan seriously overmatched on his feet against Barry.  Jordan is durable, but how many shots can he take?  Barry has never really put a win streak together but i like his chances to keep Jordan at a distance and land power shots until the finish.  Jordan will be looking for a takedown and some ground n pound , but Pat has been "getting up" lately and i think he will survive any sort of takedown if it occurs.  there's always an element of drama when Barry fights, he's only gone to a decision once so its finish or be finished.

 

2 units  Pat Barry -120

 

Roy Nelson -250 vs Stipe Miocic +210 - Miocic getting finished in his last fight doesn't deter me from picking him in this one.  Nelson on a 3 fight run beating Herman, Mitrione and Kongo(all in the 1st rd)  but Miocic is better than these guys.  Nelson will have problems with anyone he can't finish and my guess is this fight will go the distance.  Stipe can use his quickness and stay away from getting knocked out, he will be just fine.  Momentum almost makes up your mind before you analyze a fight, but looking into this battle Nelson has to get the finish or he's in trouble(lost his last 4 decisions)

 

1 unit  Stipe Miocic +210

 

 "opinions" on other fights;

 

Ryan Jimmo -240 vs Igor Pokrajac +200 - just not sold on Jimmo.  Pokrajac is aggressive and by coming forward i think it will give him the edge in rounds.  Jimmo will, as always, be cautious and try to land strikes but its Pokrajac who has the more well rounded game.  we are going to find out in this one if Jimmo has what it takes to hang with the heavyweights in the ufc.  going with Pokrajac to win a decision here.

 

Rashad Evans -110 vs Dan Henderson -110 - looking at the matchup, it seems like a mismatch in favor of Rashad.  Rashad is bigger, stronger, and faster and if he wrestles Hendo has no chance.  will he wrestle?  thats the problem, you can't trust Rashad, he lost to "lil nog" had no takedowns and if he thinks  he can stand and box Hendo, he's making a mistake.  Hendo, can still land the big shot and he's never been stopped.  i feel like Rashad will try to stand with Hendo and he will get Ko'd.

 

good luck with your plays,

-boldtiger

 

good luck with the parlays!

Antonio Braga Neto -250 vs Anthony Smith +210 – it won’t take long to see how my night will go, absolutely love Braga Neto in this one.  Neto doesn’t have very good standup, but he is to me one of the best takedown artists i’ve seen.  when Neto gets to the ground, he’s simply awesome with strong ground n pound and very very high level jiu jitsu(reminds me of a young “big nog”)  expect to see a lot more of him in the future.  Smith only has a striking chance but he probably won’t get that chance as he will be dragged down and finished pretty quickly.  Neto is very durable and his ability to close distance and secure takedowns will win this for him no problem.  when i found out the line on this fight, i couldn’t have been more excited.  easy mismatch.

 

3 units  Antonio Braga Neto -250

 

Rafael Cavalcante -220 vs Thiago Silva +190 – another very strong play as i see Cavalcante rising in the ranks on his way to big things.  team black house has always been high on him and its now his time to shine, in the ufc and fighting where he belongs.  on the other side, Thiago seems like such a huge underdog to turn his career around with the suspensions and recent back injury.  in the ring, Cavalcante is so fast and powerful, he is the most dangerous striker in the division.  Thiago is a warrior but in recent fights he’s stiff and slow and i’m betting he hasn’t recovered positively from his injury.  the speed is the difference and with the power of Feijao, it will only take 1 punch to end it.

 

2 units  Rafael Cavalcante -220

 

Leonardo Santos -200 vs William Macario +180 – you have the solid veteran fighter(Santos) getting to slide into this final due to an injury taking on the young up and comer in Macario.  i think the line is based on experience and there’s very good value on Macario, a kid who’s getting better with each fight.  Santos is slow, adequate takedowns and sure a solid ground player but at 33 with 14 fights in 11 years, i see him as the gym rat who was always on the fence about taking his game to the next level.  Macario, very young at 21, is fast on his feet and has shown great power earning his way to the final with a tko of Viscardi Andrade who was on a serious roll.  the underdog is the better fighter right now.

 

2 units  William Macario +180

 

Rodrigo Damm -140 vs Mizuto Hirota +120 – really think Hirota will win as i like his skills.  Damm is done from what i can see, lost 5 of the last 7 and finished 4 times.  Hirota has lost his first 2 away from japan, but a very close decision loss to Pat Healy and in his most recent fight, a dropdown to 145 lbs but a decision loss to Rani Yahya.  Disturbing was the fact that Yahya was able to take Hirota down but it was Hirota who was looking like the better fighter in the 3rd round.  Hirota should be good in this one, dominating the standup with ease.  Damm can only win if he takes Hirota down and holds him there and from what he’s shown lately, its not happening.  Hirota will be looking to finish.

 

2 units  Mizuto Hirota +120

 

 

“Opinions” on other fights;

 

Karlos Vemola -150 vs Caio Magalhaes +120 – was very close to making this a play on Vemola, but saw how big Magalhaes is and will pass.  still, Vemola should dominate this fight standing and i think he can stop the takedowns of Magalhaes.  Truth is, Magalhaes has a long way to go, he’s not very good and Vemola is a fringe UFC fighter which should be enough for  him to win this.  with the size of Magalhaes, i got this vision of him getting a takedown and riding out a couple of the rounds but i think Vemola is pretty cheap. with some doubt, i pass.

 

Daniel Sarafian -450 vs Eddie Mendez +350 – definitely an inflated line here, just not interested in the dog enough.  Mendez just doesn’t have any power and for as big as he is, he won’t break into the higher level unless he improves there.  Sarafian is ok, but he can be hit and even though he’s tough i don’t see much of an advantage for him in this fight.  it has the makings of a war and although i think Sarafian is beatable, i don’t think Mendez can do it.  Probably some hold your breath moments for the favorite here.

 

Erick Silva -450 vs Jason High +350 – like Silva here to be impressive and win by ko, BUT at this price its a no play for me.  Silva should be doing a lot of wrestling in practice because its the only way someone can beat him.  Enter High, a wrestler who is coming in on a 7 fight win streak.  Just can’t ignore the fact that High has the one skill that has shown to be Silva’s weakness.  Cheering for Silva though, like him a lot.

 

Fabricio Werdum -300 vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +250 – wish i could make a play on Big Nog but he’s on “fade-only” mode at this point; his age and the fact that his body is breaking down, although he looked ripped at weigh ins.  Werdum, not one of my favorites but you have to give him credit, his standup has improved greatly over the years.  both of them are up there in age, but the mileage is much higher on Nogueira with 43 fights to Werdum’s 22 fights.  i will cheer for Big Nog but i think Werdum will win the fight.

 

good luck with your plays,

-boldtiger

thank you ctown, we'll get em next event..

Stacked.  That is the one word that sums up this UFC PPV card, 12 fights and really something to be excited about.  Been thinking about this card all week, thinking of the best way to attack this card and make a win strategy.  What I see is a large number of "capable" underdogs which to me means the odds are high on a lot of fights that i see as competitive.  Not really the type of card i want being that i'm on an incredible(for the wrong reasons) 6-fight losing streak.  Still, i have to be true to myself and play the same picks as if i was coming in with a 6-fight win streak.  So with that in mind, here's my 4 official plays:

 

Gray Maynard -190 vs TJ Grant +170 - been there from the beginning with Gray as one of my favorites, felt he got screwed in the Draw with Edgar and had to accept him getting stopped in the rematch.  I can sum up what i've seen from Gray like this, he was a wrestler and was one of the bigger lightweights but he fell in love with boxing and thus began struggling to win fights(4 of his last 5 wins are by split decision)  Problem is, NOW he's maybe a medium sized lightweight and instead of facing the older crop of fighters he's now got to face the new breed of lightweight, the ones that are bigger than he is(like Grant) and ones that are more well rounded.  Maynard's last finish was in 2007, that's significant because his evolution as a fighter is still underway and at 34 years of age, coming off a big injury i don't think he will ever be a top contender again.  The biggest key to the fight is i see the lightweight division has somewhat passed Maynard by while he's been away(hurt) and the fact that his game hasn't been evolving in his last fight with Guida and his 2 fights with Edgar all of which accounts for the last 2.5 years.  Grant has found a home at lightweight(4-0) and brings huge momentum and after a strong win will be talking title shot.

 

3 units  TJ Grant +170

 

Donald Cerrone -300 vs KJ Noons +250 - interesting fight and probably the one i'm most excited to see.  KJ has had his problems lately, 1-4(all decision losses) in his last 5 as he tries to add in kicks and takedowns to his boxing base.  I do see this fight as being the best possible matchup in a long time for Noons, a guy who will stand right in front of him and trade shots.  I'm going to fade Cerrone at this point, i sense a decline for him after his 1st round loss to Pettis.  His defense is being exposed since his fight with Diaz, he was able to beat the smaller Stephens but he nearly got finished against Melvin and was finished by Pettis.  I think Cerrone is slowing down and you add that to Noons getting his big chance in the ufc and a perfect matchup i will call an upset.

 

2 units  KJ Noons +250

 

Junior Dos Santos -500 vs Mark Hunt +400 - really only playing this based on the value on a guy who has a lot of standup experience.  Dos Santos has a big enough ego, where he will believe he can win this fight standing and will look to prove that no matter what happens in the fight.  Hunt hasn't shown any stamina issues and he's only gotta worry about boxing from Junior.  I really feel like Dos Santos cockiness will be his downfall, i've noticed since he became champion a different attitude and i have an easy time making a pick against him.  Hunt although 39, gets a kickboxing match and the holy grail is on the other side of this fight.  Dreams can come true, lets hope it happens for the Super Samoan.

 

1 unit  Mark Hunt +400

 

Cain Velasquez -800 vs Antonio Silva +600 - "Bigfoot" has my attention with his 2 upset wins and he deserves a small play from me here.  Getting a rematch helps Silva so much and the way he's been focused in his recent fights is really scary.  He's bigger than Cain and if he can absorb some early punishment, its possible he can turn the fight in the later rounds.  There have been times when i watch Silva fight, i think he's going to fold but he actually gets stronger as the fight goes on so it should be interesting should the fight go to round 3.  Cain is methodical and patient so there's a good chance they feel each other out for a round or 2.  I realize this might be a "throw away" but their heavyweights and the gap has got to be smaller than the line would indicate.

 

1 unit  Antonio Silva +600

 

 

"opinions" on other fights;

 

Dennis Bermudez -280 vs Max Holloway +240 -  feel like this fight is closer to even so i'm going to go with Holloway who will win the standup battle,  Bermudez not going to hold Holloway down(i don't think) and i'm going to gamble that the majority of this fight stays standing.  Wrestling advantage does keep me off of this as an official play, but i'll be cheering for Max .

 

Rick Story -150 vs Mike Pyle - honestly i don't know how he does it? Pyle has been winning and to me winning ugly as he's looked shaky only to come out on top in recent fights.  Story in my mind will dominate this fight but with Pyle finding ways to win i won't make it official.  Still, anything other than a dominant win for Story will "surprise" me.

 

Glover Texeira -300 vs James Te Huna +250 -  love the confidence of Te Huna but his tendency to get "caught" in fights is a potential disaster against the heavy-handed Texeira.  I would go for the upset but i think Texiera has all the advantages standing and on the ground so there's just a small chance of an upset.  Texieira will win but i'm not that comfortable with the pick.

 

good luck with your plays,

-boldtiger

thanks waynechung, still 6 straight losses is the bottom line.  very shocked that Rockhold got finished like that.  only positive is that i'm way ahead still but its been rough lately.

good luck, finish strong!

Finally, the UFC returns with a huge 13-fight card in Brazil.  A highly anticipated battle between Vitor Belfort and Luke Rockhold is the main event.  I’ve been waiting to break my 3-fight losing streak from UFC 159 and good news is here as i’ve found a 3 unit play on this card.  I’ve won 6 straight three unit plays and this one should be another winner.  So lets get right to it, 3 official plays:

 

Luke Rockhold -140 vs Vitor Belfort +120 – grudge match now due to the trt comments made by Rockhold.  Belfort is now 36 but still has fast and powerful hands.  Rockhold is a rising star, still getting better with each fight.  Key to the fight is the size of Rockhold, he is a very BIG middleweight with powerful long punches and kicks and has shown great reserve in recent fights.  In the cage, Rockhold will impose his will and pick Belfort apart.  Belfort won’t be able to get out of the way and he will take a lot of damage.  I don’t think Belfort will react well when he realizes Rockhold is bigger and stronger than he is plus Vitor will get frustrated when he’s unable to land his power shots.  Unlike Jacare and Tim Kennedy who were able to “survive” with good footwork and avoid Luke’s power, Vitor will get caught.  Rockhold will be impressive.

 

3 units  Luke Rockhold -140

Nik Lentz -170 vs Hacran Dias +150 – interesting fight here.  Lentz has gone 2-0 as a featherweight but you can throw those fights out the window.  This is a style matchup, 2 grapplers.  My take though, Dias is just a better athlete and when they clinch I see him landing takedowns and having the advantage as far as ground control goes.  Dias has terrible standup, but Lentz isn’t exactly a striker either.  Lentz will shoot but Dias will avoid most takedown attempts.  I just feel confident that Dias will control this fight from top and will win all the clinches.  Probably one of the least exciting fights on this night, my money is on the underdog Dias who i thought would be a small favorite.

 

2 units  Hacran Dias +150

 

Rafael Dos Anjos -180 vs Evan Dunham +160 – i gotta be honest,  i really like Dunham but thats not why i’m taking him.  I see Dos Anjos getting a little attention with his recent 3-fight win streak.  Looking at the opponents of both fighters, I see Dunham right there even with Dos Anjos.  So we’re getting a nice price with a guy who gives 100% effort each time out and has only really lost 1 fight.  I don’t think Rafael is fast enough to pick Dunham apart and this will be a war where i see Dunham having the better chin.  As far as wrestling goes, I will take my chances with the Dunham who will work to get back up if taken down.

 

1 unit  Evan Dunham +160

 

 

“opinions” on other fights;

 

Ronaldo Souza -600 vs Chris Camozzi +475 – oh we got robbed on this matchup, Souva vs Philippou was going to be awesome.  Letdown for Souza?  sure, but still no chance of an upset here.  Camozzi just doesn’t have the standup.  I don’t think Camozzi has any chance because he can’t use his size advantage.  Souza will easily do what he likes and will look to land something good and go for a submission.  Can’t wait to see Jacare against the better middleweights in the ufc.

 

Jussier Formiga -140 vs Chris Cariaso +120 – a lot of hype for Formiga but once we see him, Dodson puts him on the canvas.  Cariaso pretty durable fighter, i will go for the upset here as i am not feeling like Formiga is a top tier flyweight.  Cariaso didn’t look good against Moraga but i believe that was more Moraga showing his best.  A bounce-back effort for Cariaso as i see him earning a close decision win being more active in the fight.

 

good luck with your plays,

-boldtiger