calinreddog

Dogs bark?

Maybe it's dumb, i don't know, but it works for hockey and soccer where scoring is a completely different process and i thought to try it for basketball.
I don't know much about basketball but it looks like the pace is everything when it comes about totals.

Rob a bank. The odds to not get caught by police are better.

Yesterday results:

NBA
mil-pho under 213
NCAAB
can-siena under 141
eill-murst under 129.5
oklst-okl under 147
loute-boist under 148.5
sjst-frsno under 140
nmexs-idaho under 150

NBA 1-0
NCAAB 3-3

NCAAB:

can@siena under 141
eill@murst under 129.5
oklst@okl under 147
loute@boist under 148.5
sjst@frsno under 140
nmexs@idaho under 150

The books are reading what posters are writing and move the lines accordingly. If they see DET@CHI 1st half over 96 the best 1st half bet they say "Hey, let's move it to 97 to see if remains the best bet!"

I will try to adjust my hockey and soccer under strategy (as described in the post above) to see how it works for basketball.
In soccer and hockey the differential is 1 goal, the maximum amount of points that can be scored in one offensive action. They can't score more than 1 point at a time. In basketball the maximum amount of points they can score by an offensive action is 3 points, so i should take 3 points differential when i pick the plays.
For instance, in soccer total is listed at 2.5 and i take a bet when the sum of defenses is at most 2 goals, 1 goal under what would be the over. Same for hockey.
So, for basketball i would take the under when the sum of defenses is at least 3 points under the posted total. That means i sum the defensive averages for home team (when playing at home) and for road team (when plyaing on the road) and if the result is 3 or more points less than the total posted by the bookie i'll take the under.

I looked at todays matchups (NBA) and the only game that suites this criteria would be Milwaukee @ Phoenix : Buckes allow 95.6 points/game on the road and Suns allow 105.3 points/game at home. The sum is 200.9 points and the total posted is 213. The difference is 12.1 points so i'll take it as un under.
There is another interesting game, MIN @ DEN where the sum is 212.5 and the total posted is 215 now. But the line moved 2 points. They opened 217 at Pinnacle and they are now 215. There would be a play at at least 215.5 but with the line movement i don't think it's wise to take the under.

So, one NBA play: MIL@PHO under 213

What you're saying makes a lot of sense... but if the sum of the defensive averages is under the posted total i wouldn't play over.

As a matter of fact, i use a similar strategy for soccer and hockey totals and it works pretty good, but scoring in hockey and soccer is a poisson process, completely different. For instance today i was 2-0 (one soccer under and one hockey under).
For soccer i pick situations where the defensive average (sum) is at most 2 goals / game wich means very strong defensives.
For hockey i pick situations where the sum of defenses is at most 5 goals / game.
The best situations are those when top teams meet. They both have veryy strong strong defenses but also very strong offenses and the bookies come up with value odds for the under. Usually a confrontation between top defenses ends up in an under.

You didn't get it right my friend: you have to wait untill they lose 1 bet. After they lose 1 bet they start running on the streets.

I didn't understand what you're saying...
Should we find a capper that runs in the streets...?

Try being glad in a silent way, i was expressing an opinion related to betting systems for sale and that is on topic.
If you posted 769 replies like this one... you're a smart guy ... and very interesting...

Do you have something to say?
Strategy related, maybe?

If you would find the perfect system (or almost perfect) would sell it for money or would you use it to bet and get rich from betting?

I have no results at this moment, but it should work fine:
Every day or night pick the game with the lowest defensive numbers on the board and play under. That means you should sum the defensive averages for both teams (how many points do they allow per game).
For instance, tonight:
The game with the lowest defensive numbers is Cleveland at Portland. Cleveland defense allows an avg. of 93.8 points / game and Portland defense allows 93.8 points / game. That means 187.6 points per game for both defenses. You can find the numbers on Covers NBA scoreboard under "Matchup".
For those who like chasing you can chase the under by this criteria increasing stakes. But stick to one game per day.

Good Luck!

Joey, Target, Thatsagoodone,


6.95 x

But you got to admit that behavior, emotions and reasonning strongly rely on physiological processes....

boston ml.

I meant I based my O/U picks on the  L10 W/L records... sorry about that...

I played the O/U during the last week basing my picks on the last 10 O/U records.
I thought motivated team (positive record L10, 6-4 or bigger) hit better and if both teams are motivated the O/U result should be over and under if both teams are below 5 wins L10.
The overs hit pretty good (3/4) but the unders didn't.
Has anyone studied a corelation between L10 W/L and O/U for long term?

TB vs. LAA over 9.5