demapples

Anyone have any player prop bets that jump out at them in Week 1?

"A pleasant good afternoon to everyone and welcome to Week 10's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side. Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week the Ravens did what they always seem to do; which is stop the bottom from falling out and not only salvage their season, but prepare to execute a potentially deep playoff push.  The Browns did not cover, thus my season total is now 6-3 ATS.  This week I'm doing something I do rarely; which is cap an Eagles game.  The Eagles are my favorite team and I typically don't evaluate their match-ups from a betting standpoint, even though their is no other team in the league I feel I have a better pulse on and can comprehend their ebbs and flows more so than the Birds.  Allow me to articulate a lament that is a fact that you are already well aware of.  The Eagles are awful.  They have more weaknesses than Lindsay Lohan's self control.  They have no leadership, no cohesiveness, and no concrete confidence in each other.  Their team statistics will tell you that they are a middle of the road team, a dozen or so teams that are clear-cut better than them and worse than them.  I say bullshit.  There are only a few teams worse than them.  The amount of Andy Reid's future games coached for the Eagles I could count on one hand if I had 7 fingers on one hand.  Michael Vick only knows how to play the game one way and he can't physically perform like that anymore and has no mental attributes to compensate. LeSean McCoy is a bright spot which the offensive coaching staff refuses to utilize.  Most importantly, their offensive line has more holes in it than golf course.  They are 0-3-1 ATS in their L4 Home games and are 1-6-1 ATS in their L8 overall.  With all that being said, I'm taking the Eagles this week +1.5.  Why? The biggest reason is that they tend to play well within the division.  Conversely, the Cowboys tend to fall short within the division.  The Eagles are 5-0-1 ATS in ther L6 NFC East games.  The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their L8 NFC East games.  These games between the Eagles and Cowboys are like many divisional rivalries.  Close and low-scoring.  The underdog is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings between these 2 teams.  The Under has hit 5 out of the L7.  Enough solid numbers, how about more derogatory based ranting.  The Cowboys are almost as flawed as the Eagles.  If their fans really think they are a playoff caliber team than they are as mislead as Bill Clinton at an pro-abstinence convention.  I think their situation in more dire than the Eagles as their main issue is situated right at the very top in Jerry Jones.  Compound the fact the Tony Romo is the exact opposite of Ben Rothlisberger in the sense that he is weak and the bigger the moment the smaller the performance.  And make no mistake, the players on both team think is game is a big moment and an opportunity to remain in the playoff hunt.  Don't think the coaches aren't reminding them where the Giants were this time last season.  Regardless, this will be an ugly, sloppy game and I think the Eagles will somehow prevail even though their fan base in wise enough to know that the Philadelphia Eagles won't be competitive again for a few years after Andy Reid and company are kicked to the curb (fingers crossed).  There you have it, Eagles +1.5.  Good Luck to everyone this week and see you next week for Week 11's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

Thanks Canada, the power just came back on and what a great feeling after 4 days without.

"A pleasant good afternoon to everyone and welcome to Week 9's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was the 6th outright winner for the SUCKER BET this season as the Browns prevailed, bringing our season tally to 6-2 ATS.  This week's SUCKER BET is no surprise to those who have followed this post for years and/or for those who comprehensively grasp the concept of the SUCKER BET.  For the 3rd time this season (Week's 6 & 8) I'm backing the Browns +4 at home vs. the Ravens.  The Ravens are 5-2 SU this season, but 2-5 ATS (0-3 ATS L3).  Even after the win against the Chargers last week, Cleveland is getting no love this week.  I'm not saying they deserve a ton of support.  I'm actually more discounting the Ravens then supporting the Browns.  The Ravens are 1-4 ATS as a favorite this year and 1-4 ATS against divisional opponents.  They are also 4-10 ATS against teams with a losing record.  Conversely the Browns are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.  Revenging a loss against an opponent, the Browns are 9-4 ATS L13.  There is a handful of more supportive trends but this post is already getting too trend heavy.  The Ravens are trying to figure out how to remain an above average defense without Ray Lewis.  They are coming off a BYE and have some nicked up players thankful for the extra rest.  The Browns defense is also getting back a couple much needed players in Ahtyba Rubin and Phil Taylor.  This game is going to come down to whichever RB performs better.  Both are talented and both can handle the pressure.  It's tough to give the edge to either one, but I like siding with the dog in a "pitchers duel".  That being said, the Ravens have beat the Browns the last 9 times they've played.  I see a game-winning FG breaking up a 10-10 score at the end of regulation.  There you have it, Browns +4.  Good luck everyone this week and see you next week for Week 10's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!" 

Post Script: To those effected by Hurricane Sandy (like me, we still have no power at our home)...hang it there.  Thanks to those helping anyway you can!

"A pleasant good Sunday afternoon to everyone and welcome to Week 8's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was a loser for the SUCKER BET and the Panthers were ultimately a bad choice, bringing our season tally to 5-2 ATS.  Sometimes I have to go where the research points me regardless of whether or not the pick feels "right".  This week is one of those picks and Joe Public is backing the no team more than the Chargers in Cleveland.  The Chargers are coming off a difficult lose and have the pressure of needing a win in this spot to stay in the playoff hunt.  The Browns might just have the better QB in this match-up mostly due to their superior (comparatively speaking) offensive line which has only allowed 4 sacks over the past 3 games.  The Chargers fans have to be worried.  Multiple loses after double-digit leads and their wins this season are against OAK, TEN, and KC.  Phillip Rivers threw 4 INT's in their lose to Denver and the Browns defense leads the AFC in picks (10).  Chargers are tough against the run, which doesn't bode well for Richardson if he plays.  So Weeden will get plenty of opportunities to showcase his skills as a potentially rising star in the league.  I know it sounds ridiculous to say that about the QB of a team with a 1-6 record, but he's playing well and looks real good at times.  The Browns have been in every game and have failed to come up with that one play too often.  As for some trends, Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. CLE is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.  Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.  There you have it, Brown +3 at home vs. the leaking Chargers.  Good Luck to everyone this week and see you next week for Week 9's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

"A pleasant good morning to everyone and welcome to Week 7's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was another great week for the SUCKER BET as the Browns beating the Bengals was this year's 5th outright win bringing our season tally to 5-1 ATS.  This week I'm on another home dog.  I am surprised to how heavily Joe Public is all over the Cowboys. Only the Packers are getting more love in Week 7.  I like Carolina here at home and coming off a BYE.  DeMarco Murray is not playing Sunday and although the Cowboys didn't win last week, some still think they are a quality playoff contending team.  They may be, I don't think so, but they may be.  Regardless, they are far from great against the spread as a favorite, to the tune of 4-18 ATS over the past 3 seasons; 0-3 ATS in 2012.  Carolina isn't all that great as a favorite either, also 0-3 ATS in 2012. But as a dog, they are 3-0 ATS this season. 3 of Carolina's 4 loses this season have been less than a touchdown.  The Bears and Ravens have put up 65 points against Dallas over the past 2 weeks and I'm hoping the Panthers can add to that total.  Though Dallas pass defense can be tough so the Panthers will have to run the ball.  Which is true regardless of who they're matched-up against; Panthers are 7-1 SU when they run the ball 28 times or more since Newton's been under center, and 0-13 SU when they carry it 27 times or fewer.  For those who put value into the "looking ahead" theory, the Cowboys are hosting the division leading Giants in Week 8.  Only the Eagles and Chiefs have a worse turnover ratio than the Cowboys.  Penalties you ask? Dallas is the 3rd most penalized teams in the NFL.  Only the Falcons have committed less penalties than the Panthers.  Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss and are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.  There you have, Panthers +2 hosting the Cowboys.  Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for Week 8's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"  

"A pleasant good afternoon to everyone and welcome to Week 6's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was another great week for the SUCKER BET as the Colts beating the Packers was this year's 4th outright win bringing our season tally to 4-1 ATS.  This week I'm on another home dog.  The Bengals are favored by 3 in Cleveland this Sunday and many seem to be heavily favoring Cincinnati.  Initially, it looks like Joe Public is on the right side as CIN has won 5 of their last 7 against CLE and are slightly better at each offensive and defensive category.  But we need to remember that these are 2 bad football teams.  Cincinnati struggles against divisional opponents (0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North).  Conversely, the Browns have recently taken care of the divisional opponent (Browns are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC North).  The Bengals are relying on Green-Ellis this week, but he can't get it going.  He's averaging just 3.3 YPC this season and rushed for only 14 yards last week.  Brown's d-back Joe Haden in returning from suspension just in time to cover AJ Green.  If you're hesitant to put a couple shekels on a winless team, I don't blame you.  Just keep in mind that they are as motivated to win their first game as ATL is motivated to not lose their first game.  It's not going to be a pretty game, but I think it will be a close one that hopefully lands on the side of the home dog and perhaps another SUCKER BET outright win!  There you have it, Browns +3 this week.  Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 7's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

The Redskins weren't an option.  I can only chose from the 3 or 4 most lopsided consensus picks.  Simply being an underdog doesn't qualify...I like to make it hard on myself. 

"A pleasant good morning to everyone and welcome to Week 5's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET. Last week was not a good one for the SUCKER as the Raiders plus the points never had a chance.  That brings our season tally to 3-1 ATS.  This week is not an easy one to select a SUCKER BET.  Ultimately we have 3 home dogs (IND, KC, JAX) to choose from.  This won't be a popular pick, but I'm taking the Colts +7 hosting the Packers.  There isn't a ton out there to support this pick.  I'm thinking the Colts will be playing with raw emotion as coach Chuck Pagano was suddenly diagnosed with Leukemia.  The Packers have been progressively getting better as the year goes on which doesn't trend nicely for my pick.  But I look at their victory last week vs. the Saints and I can help but think what the outcome would have been if the Saints could only tackle.  We've all seen those games where the Packers defense looks awful.  I'm hoping that defense shows on Sunday along with the most penalized defensive unit in the league.  The Colts have followed up their past 4 SU loses with an ATS win.  They are well rested coming off their bye week in which they are 4-1 ATS L5.  The Pack are both 1-4 ATS L5 overall and their L5 vs. a team with a losing record.  I'm hoping a low scoring under game takes place here.  Colts are 7-0 Under in their last 7 home games and 6-1 Under in their last 7 overall.  Neither team has a lot of familiarity with each other which may or may not support my pick.  One match-up I like is Colts D-Line vs. Pack O-Line.  There you have it, Colts +7 hosting the Pack.  Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for Week 6's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

Yeah it's me. Damn life (wife, kids, business) got in the way of what's important; Cappin' games and $5 6-team parlays!  I'll probably lose the next 3 weeks and you won't hear from me for a while....or I could have another year like the 2 or 3 I had years back.  We'll see....

"A pleasant good morning to everyone and welcome to Week 4's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was the 3rd straight outright win with the Seahawks' controversial victory over the Pack.  I'm sticking with the dogs, but sliding over to a road dog this week.  Perhaps the real refs will favor the homers a little less this week unlike their replacement brethren.  I'm going to try to take advantage of a couple 4th quarter TD in last week's Broncos/Texans game which prevented a full-blown blowout.  Sound familiar? Denver also put up 14 points in the 4th quarter of their Week 2 loss to the Falcons.  Not including the 4th quarter, the Broncos offense has put up 18 points in the previous 2 games.  The Broncos/Raiders game opened at DEN -5.5 and is now up to -6.5 to -7 thanks to those ignoring the fact that the Raiders play well in Denver to the tune of 6-0 ATS L6.  The road team in this match-up is 7-1 ATS L8.  OAK is 4-1 L5 meetings.  More trends; against division opponents over the past 3 seasons, OAK is 9-4 ATS L13.  As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, OAK is 8-4 ATS L12.  In games with the total between 42.5 to 49, OAK is 12-4 ATS L16.  Ok, enough trends...so whatifsports.com runs some sort of computer model like a million times to generate their predictions.  They are projecting a close game.  Take that for what it's worth.  Side note; anyone know if Troy Aikman still does his Efficiency Ratings?  Used to really like those, but can't find his 2012 rankings at all.  Anyway, I know DEN hasn't looked all that bad; their 2 loses are against strong teams, but perhaps they might take the Raiders lightly with the Patroits next up on the docket, not that I've ever put much stock into the "looking ahead" theory.  Willis McGahee was knocked out of last week's game and is limited in practice this week.  Subjectively speaking, Manning just hasn't looked right this season.  Some of the passes coming out of his hands look really awful, like so bad they are tough to pick-off because the ball is nowhere near the defender and is wobbling uncontrollably.  McFadden got it going last week with over a 100 yards rushing vs. the Steelers' D and I see him continuing to play well again this week.  Well there you have it, OAK + 6.5 in Denver.  Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 5's Sucker Bet brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

"A win is a win" doesn't even apply here.  So many wrong doings in the final sequence of this game.  Leading up to the final play, the roughing the passer call shouldn't have been called on that low tackle as the QB was out of the pocket.  Then Jennings needs to just bat that ball down, the thought of making on catch on that play shouldn't even be in his head.  Tough to be proud of the SUCKET BET this week.

"A pleasant good afternoon to everyone and welcome to Week 3's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was another winner with the Rams winning outright bringing the season tally to 2-0 ATS.  This week I'm siding with the Seahawks +3.5 hosting the Packers in SEA.  This line opened at GB -6 and Joe Public is pounding GB as the line is down to 3 at some books.  I don't love the fact that the Seahawks are coming off a crushing victory over the Cowboys last week.  That being said, the Packers are on an emotional high of their own as they beat their divisional rival Bears where they easily covered.  BTW, the Packers are 1-5 ATS L6 following an ATS win. It's no secret the Seahawks are a tough home team; 8-3 ATS L11 (13-5 L18).  The Seahawks also seem to show up in MNF, 4-0-1 ATS L 5.  One tool I like to use is called Iskoe's Spreadsheet.  The season is young, but the Seahawks seems to match-up better than most would expect vs. GB.  Another tool I like to leverage is Jeff Sagarin's Ratings. He suggest these 2 teams are closer matched than most would assume.  What makes Seattle a somewhat tougher team this year is their successful running game and their tough defense, especially against the pass.  One more smaller trend, SEA is 8-4 ATS over the past 3 season where the total is between 42.5-49.  There you have SEA +3.5 at home on Monday Night.  Grab that hook while you can!  See everybody next week for Week 4's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

"A pleasant good morning to everyone and welcome to Week 2's SUCKER BET brought to you by the fine folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  We have had some great success with this post in past years and let's see if 2012 can't be another stellar one!  We started off well with the Cardinals pick last week bringing our season record to 1-0 ATS.  This week's SUCKER BET pick is the St. Louis Rams +3.5.  This is one of those lines that jumps out at me.  Joe Public is wearing his RG3 jersey and loving the Redskins this week.  I would have guessed this line would be closer to 6 or 7.  The linesmakers are begging everyone to take the Skins and mostly everyone is jumping on board.  Not this guy!  What? You don't like the Redskins pick?  "I can't take the Rams!" you say?  Good!  The best SUCKER BETS are the picks that few cappers agree with.  Back to the game...The Skins are 1-4 ATS in their L5 vs. STL.  The underdog in this match-up is 2-8 in the L10 meetings.  Talk about playing down to your competition...in the L35 games vs. a team with a losing record; the Redskins are 8-24-3 ATS.  The Rams picked off Matthew Stafford 3 times last week and won't make things easy for RG3, especially without P. Garcon.  Also on the injury front, it looks like O-Lineman Rodger Saffold could remarkable be a "go" considering his thought-to-be serious injury last week.  Let's recap; you've got a home dog, with a hook, coming off a loss, against a team coming off a win and everyone is very high on.  Sounds like a SUCKET BET to me!  There you have it; STL +3.5.  Good luck everyone and see you next week for WEEK 3's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"
 

Correct

Colts + 9.5  
Giants -4
Bills +4
ATL/KC Under 41.5
CARDINALS +3

2012 NFL
ATS 0-0
SU: 0-0
O/U: 0-0

It's been a super long time since I've posted on these boards.  3-5 years ago I'd recognize almost everyone, but the usernames I see now don't look so familiar.  Nobody's fault but my own.  That's what happens when wife, kids, house, business, and so on enter into the picture.  Nonetheless I'm sure the content and opinions are as rich as ever!  GL to everyone this upcoming 2012 season and let's combine our heads to make some extra spending money this year. 

I typically don't like betting the NFL in week one, or at least betting the "normal" amount.  I try to not let the excitement take over my game plan.  If you can find a nice opening day trend, by all means, play it (and post it to this thread!), but it's tough to get a solid handle on things until 2-3 weeks go buy. 

One practice I always do, without fail, and I'm sure I'm not alone, is print out all the game without looking at the lines.  I then try to guess and write down what the lines would be and see where the biggest difference is.  This doesn't necessarily determine my plays, but it's a good starting point.

On that note, the only game that had a somewhat large differential was the BEARS hosting the Colts.  I pegged this at Bears -5.5, but looks like the lines makers are not buying into the Andrew Luck hype like perhaps I am.  But that's not why I like the Colts in this game.  I like the Colts because they finished relatively strong in 2011 (4-1 ATS) and the Bears couldn't put it together on grass down the stretch (1-4 ATS L5).  The under is hitting a combined 13-1 with these 2 teams. Under often translate to underdog. 

I expect a slow start and a somewhat tight game.

CHI 20 IND 16

Bears + 9.5  

Other plays include:

Giants -4

Giants just have their number especially in New York.  Though I tend to like dogs more within a divisional rival.  But not here.

Bills +4

Now a team that doesn't mind traveling the Big Apple is the Bills (5-1 ATS L6).  Road team in (8-1 ATS L9).  Have I mentioned that I tend to like dogs within a division rivalry?

ATL/KC Under 41.5

Neither teams have a great familiarity with each other.  The under trends for KC are too prolific to ignore.  The under is 6-2 in the Falcons L8 openers.  Joe Public is all over that ATL offense.

For Old Times Sake.....

SUCKER BET OF THE WEEK

CARDINALS +3 (and counting)

Can't take ARI?  Then let me be in the minority.  After all, that's what the SUCKER BET is all about!!!! SEA is 1-5 ATS L6 in Arizona.  If you're taking SEA, just don't get carried away. 


Bears + 9.5  
Giants -4
Bills +4
ATL/KC Under 41.5
CARDINALS +3

It's been very long since I've posted on these boards, but I figured I'd document these great games coming up on Sunday.

GB (-3.5) @ CHI (43)

Of all the statistics and trends I've read regarding this game, none other seems to have more weight than: In his last 9 starts, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 22 TD passes and just 2 INTs in 269 pass attempts, with a .729 completion percentage and a 125.0 passer rating.  Speaking of passer ratings, in his 5 starts vs. the Packers, Jay Cutler has a passer rating on 65.0.  Additionally, Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Chicago.  Therefor it's no surprise that I like the favorite in this match-up. 

As for the total, I won't side with Joe Public on this one.  I'll take the over.  In the L5 Packer playoff games, the over has hit 4x.  In the L6 Bears playoff games the over has hit 5x.  I keep hearing about the weather and the field condition and all that stuff and it only solidifies my feelings more. 

PREDITCION: GB 27, CHI 17

NYJ @ PIT (-3.5) 38.5

I like the fact that Mark Sanchez has played relatively well in his couple playoff games.  I think there is value on the other side as last week's performance was just the 4th time all year that he has had multiple TD with no INTs, his last was week 4.  But one of the most powerful statistics has to be; The Steelers haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher in their last 50 regular season games.  I can't believe this line isn't closer to  5 or 6.  Which makes me feel like I falling into a SUCKER trap.  But I can't take the other side, so I'll take the chalk.

As for the total, I think this game goes over as well.  Pittsburgh's young receivers are going to be able to make a significant impact.  I think the Steelers can put 24 points on the board.  In Pittsburgh's last 5 Conference Championship games, ALL have gone over.  In thier last 11 home playoff games, 10 have gone over.  In the Jets last 11 road games, 10 have gone over. 

PREDICTION: NYJ 17, PIT 24

Good Luck Everyone!

"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 9's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was ANOTHER outright win for the SUCKER BET, bringing our season tally to an even 5-4 ATS.  This week we are going to do something we only done a few times in the past.  There is a total that jumps out in which Joe Public is heavily favoring the over.  Perhaps more so than any on the board this week.  I'm however going to take the under 44 in the Falcons at Panthers match-up.  This week I'm relying heavily on trends.  However there is more to support this play than just trends.  That being said....The Under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Carolina.  The Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0, 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games as a road favorite,  and 7-1 in Falcons last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Under is 9-0 in Panthers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in Week 1, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games, 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games as a home underdog, and 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a ATS win.  Both team have some injuries to key players.  The Falcons have given up 397 yards on the ground over the past three games.  So don't be shocked to see a healthy dose of DeAngelo Williams.  Michael Turner will also get his fair share carries hopefully meaning the clock will continue to "run" often.  Combined these two QB's have thrown for 23 INT this season,  more than any other 2 QBs playing each other on Sunday.  Additionally, BOTH teams are in the bottom 7 of the league in FG%.  Neither team has taken a punt or a kick-off to the house this season.  There you have it, UNDER 44 in the Falcons at Panthers match-up.  Good Luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 11's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

"Good morning everyone and welcome to Week 9's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was another outright win for the SUCKER BET, bringing our season tally to an even 4-4 ATS.  This week Joe Public seems to be siding heavily with the Ravens as they opened up as a dog and are now favored by a FG as they travel to Cincinnati.  The last time these two teams met was not long ago (Week 5) as Cedric Benson became the first rusher in 40 games to run for over 100 yards vs. the Ravens.  Perhaps as impressive was the Bengals victory two weeks ago (they had a bye last week) as they hosted another team with a strong defense, the Bears.  In that game Carson Palmer threw for 5 TD's and Cedric Benson rushed for 189 yards.  Cincinnati is one of the league's most balanced offense and can get to the top of their divsion with a victory on Sunday.  These teams both are matched-up against one of the league toughest schedules this season.  Against "Top 10" teams, the Ravens are just 1-3.  In Carson Palmers' 10 career starts against the Ravens, he is 7-3 ATS.  Where these two differs most is not on either side of the ball, but on special teams, specically punt returns.  the Bengals are one of the best averaging over 13 yards ppr vs. the Ravens under 5 yards ppr.  As strong of a defense the Ravens are know for, the Bengals have more sacks, intereceptions, fumble recoveries, and give up less 1st down per game.  The Bengals are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Ravens are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite, and are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Bengals.  Cincinnati will also bring a stout rushing defense into this week as opponents are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.  There you have it, Benglas +3 as the host the always popular Ravens.  Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 10's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"

""Good afternoon everyone and welcome to Week 8's edition of the SUCKER BET, as always brought to you by the kind folks at Tootsie Pop!  For those of you who are unfamiliar with the SUCKER BET, each week I identify the games where the public seems to be heavily favoring one side.  Typically there are 3 or 4 choices each week.  From those games, I choose one unpopular pick as the SUCKER BET.  Last week was tough loss for the SUCKER BET as I was almost guilty of counting my chickens before they hatched.  The Dolphins looked like yet another outright win for the SUCKER BET, but ended up on the wrong side bringing our season tally to 3-4 ATS.  This week I like the Eagles +1 hosting the New York Giants.  The Eagles are playing well at home, which they will need to do because the Giants have won the last 4 ATS in Philly.  These teams are not unlike eachother as they their offenses and defenses score and give up a relatively similar amount of points.  They have balanced offenses and are well coached.  The big difference I see is Turnover Differential as the Eagles are the leaders in the NFL at +11, thanks in large part to their 12 INTs this season.  In their last 13 games coming off a division game, the Eagles are 11-2 ATS.  Eli is a streaking QB and the Eagles are lucky that he isn't flying high right now.  Over the past 2 weeks he has 2 TD passes and 4 INT.  Asante Samuel is hoping he can grab a pick this week as the Eagles are 22-2 SU in games when he has an interception.  I'm not sure about the status of Brian Westbrook, but I'm going to assume he will not be in the lineup this week, which means LeSean (Shady) McCoy will be the main ball carrier for the Eagles.  The underdog is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings.  The line opened with the Eagles being favored by two points.  Quick money came in on the Giants and Vegas quickly obliged moving the line the other way.  Take this for what it's worth from Whatifsports.com, "The tight race in the NFC East becomes just a smidgen clearer as front-runners New York and Philadelphia square off in the City of Brotherly Love. The home-standing Eagles, who struggled the past two weeks with Washington and Oakland, score a major victory 58.5% of the time and by a score of 24-19."  The Philly crowd will be excited as they have a long sports day to support their teams with the Phillies hosting the Yankees across the street 4 hours after the Eagles game ends.  The Eagles spanked the Giants last year in the playoffs and New York has revenge in thier eyes as they try to snap their 2-game losing streak with the winner taking the lead in the division.  Sounds like a lot of pressure to me.  Give me the home team getting a point.  Good luck to everyone this week and see you next week for WEEK 9's SUCKER BET brought to you by Tootsie Pop!"