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replied to
Enough is enough! Your Team President just called you out as LOSERS. Win a Fu**ing Game. WRITE-UP!
in NBA Betting
Great call Scal. Love this spot for the Knicks tonight. Pelicans 10 different cities in 22 days. I see this as a one possession game and 7 seems inflated.
This is a pretty nice sized play for me tonight. The system of teams taking a west or east coast trip of three games or more and fading them first game back home was awesome for me last week. |
scalabrine | 110 |
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I feel -200 for him is decent value. Just missed winning in Delray against Cilic (who is in top form right now).
Querrey is struggling badly, he got taken to 3 sets on Monday against the 635th ranked player in the world. He's 3-8 so far this yr as well, two of those wins coming in at the Aussie. Anderson on the other hand is 8-3, with two of those 3 losses at the hands of Berdych & Cilic. I'll bite on the -200...
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denniep | 1 |
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Nice hit!
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iaathgtsl | 13 |
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On Zeballos as well. Good luck, and rankings dont mean garbage in tennis...unless your the top 4...
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iaathgtsl | 13 |
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+200 seems to be really good value with Dodig not in great form...
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denniep | 1 |
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Any lean on Karlovic/Lopez?
Thanks
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Racquetguyz | 100 |
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denniep | 4 |
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Quote Originally Posted by rg3skins: YTD: 238-231-4 (+6.65 units) ATS: 157-135-4 (+12.3 units) ML: 8-13 (-6.1 units) Totals: 50-38 (+8.9 units) LIVE: 5-6 (+0.2 units) 2H ATS: 4-7 (-3.7 units) 2H Totals: 10-9 (+0.1 units) Parlays: 2-22 (-5.65 units) Teasers: 3-3 (+0 units) Monday: 3-8 (-8.7 units) Horrible slump right now. Getting some bad luck. Time to switch things up. I'll now be posting a write-up for each game whether I play it or not. This way I won't miss out on any potentially good plays. Tuesday Indiana Pacers -3 @ Atlanta Hawks TOTAL: 199 Factors: 1. Home Court Advantage The Pacers are 14-8 (13-9 ATS) on the road. But in their last 8 road games, they are 2-6 ATS. The Hawks are 16-6 at home (15-7 ATS). As home dogs, the Hawks are 6-2 ATS. Atlanta is a very good home team. Advantage: Atlanta 2. Fatigue Indiana is playing the second of a back-to-back, but they're coming off an easy win over Orlando. Atlanta has had two days of rest before this game. Advantage: Atlanta 3. Previous Matchups These two teams met once this season, and ATL was home in that one as well. The Hawks were still missing Horford in that one, and won the game 97-87. Atlanta led by 17 at the half before Indiana ultimately cut the lead to 10. At one point, Atlanta was up 25. The question you ask yourself is will Atlanta beat the best team in the NBA again? Advantage: Indiana 4. Look-ahead Game Indiana has a game against Portland after this one, but so far this season they have proven to me that they don't usually lay eggs. I won't say this one is much of a factor. 5. The TOTAL Here's where we're getting some value. The total is set at 199. The last time these two teams met, which was January 8th, it was set at 187.5. The game finished at 184. So why is it 199 right now? I guess one reason for that could be is that Indiana has played higher scoring games lately, particularly on the road. But that was against some of the faster paced teams like SAC, DEN, GS, PHX, and LAL. In Pacers games with totals of 195 or more, the UNDER is 6-6-1, so no real angle there. Against Eastern Conference opponents, Indiana UNDERS are 20-10. Against Western Conference opponents, they are 8-9-1. So we see a tendency to play faster paced games against teams from the West. Hawks OVERS are 13-10 at home. But I think that Indiana will dictate the pace of this game, which will cause it to go UNDER. I know the total has increased from 197.5 to 199, but we're getting way too much value here. A 12-point increase from their game in ATL only a month ago. Play: Pacers/Hawks UNDER 199 (3 units) Have you seen the Hawks pace of play lately? Their putting up well over 80 shots a game with a 1.2 points per possession efficiency. I feel they fall into the same category as those Western Conference teams that you mentioned. Best of luck, but thought i'd add a little insight...
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rg3skins | 34 |
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CMJ didn't mention that Blake & Nash are starting tonight, so not sure if that factored into his under play or not...
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CMJohnson1 | 21 |
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This over seems to be the play...
Pacers last few games against teams that like to get out and run and points they scored: 1/30-Phoenix-102 1/28-Lakers-92 (Lakers first game back from a long 7 game east coast trip) 1/25-Denver-109 1/24-Sacramento-111 1/22-Phoenix-124 I feel the Hawks are very similar to all these teams in terms of offensive scheme. The Hawks last 9 games and points scored and teams played: 120-Minnesota 125-Philly 109-OKC (have been really good defensively as of late) 112-Milwaukee 79-Spurs (laid a dud) 112-Orlando 121-Miami (top 5 defensive efficiency team) 110-Brooklyn 101-Memphis (the only team to score over 100 on Memphis since) So other than the dud laid against San Antonio, coach Bud was on Pop's staff, so may have something to do with it. They've cleared 109 in every game but 1. They also have no resistance at the rim, and with the Pacers efficiency on offense, I don't see them laying a dud. I see both teams getting over 100 on this one. |
denniep | 4 |
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[Quote: Originally Posted by StraightWagers] how's the fake bankroll plays coming?
[/Quote Looks like down 4600 in less than a week...at this rate, the 50k will be gone in less than 11 weeks... Then it will be another system switch with 100k in bankroll...
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PapaShango | 456 |
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replied to
Call me crazy but I just wrote the BIGGEST WRITE-UP on the World Wide Web for the BULLS@KINGS GAME!
in NBA Betting
Great call Scal. Enjoy your write ups and plays. Believe i'm 5-1 tailing you this year. With the only loss being Lakers-Knicks a few weeks back by a pt...
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scalabrine | 162 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1: Lakers vs Wolves UNDER 216 ($110 to win $100) Without Pau Gasol in this one for the Lakers, and out for the next couple of games as well, I just don't see the Lakers having enough offense to get this one over the total. I know the Lakers defense has been swiss cheese lately, but the first two meetings between these two teams this year went UNDER the total, and I believe this one stays lower as well. Prediction: Wolves 106 Lakers 93 Didn't you say Gasol slowed the offense down earlier this yr? I believe it was when these two teams played each other last time in LA. Your weird man...
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CMJohnson1 | 21 |
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So you've lost over 2k in 2 days???
Been there before, lets get em this weekend!!!
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PapaShango | 456 |
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Its called the injury theory. Been happening for years dude. Star/significant player out, line drops, and the team ends up winning or covering. ESPN has nothing to do with it.
You might be as dumb as my dog's turds.
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GTRandy | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs: Pacers at Lakers Pacers are wrapping up their road trip...Lakers are coming back from a looooong road trip. Pacers need this win to go 3-2 on their west coast swing, and the Lakers...I'm not sure what the Lakers mindset is right now. 10 out of their last 11 games were on the road, and I'm sure their happy to be at home. Pacers have had 2.5 full days of rest since their last game, and they needed it bad. So where does that leave us for this game? This is a tough game to handicap. If you just look at recent games you can see both teams struggling, but the situation is different tonight with the Pacers having rest, and the Lakers finally at home. It's tough to find many trends with the Lakers, but the biggest trend is that they can't rebound. They are getting outrebounded about every night. They are taking way less shots than their opponents, but their shooting percentage is high. Pacers tend to dominate the boards most nights...tonight should be no exception. Looking back at the last few games the Pacers have played the common thing is that the backcourt of the opponents are scoring at will. Phoenix, Sacramento and Denver were all hitting outside shots, and getting to the rim. Does this Lakers team have the ability to do that? Pacers ran into two teams shooting lights out in Phoenix and Sacramento, and because so much energy was drained they hardly put up a fight against Denver. However, Vogel and this staff has been great at making adjustments when they have days off. The Pacers don't have to make a ton of adjustments, but I think they will tweak a couple things on offense and defense. Plays for tonight. Looking at the Lakers past games, since they struggle so much on the boards, I think they are going to struggle with getting a lot of possessions, especially in the first half. I'm taking the Lakers TT 1h 48.5 under. I think the Pacers play spirited defense in the first half, and hold the Lakers to under 45% shooting. However, I'm also taking the game total over 205. In the Lakers last games there have been tons of points scored in the second half...I can see lots of points in the 2h here as well, and I don't see how the Lakers are going to slow the Pacers offense, especially with rest. If the Lakers are going to it close (which they might), they are going to have to push the pace and get their guards going....lots of points in the 2h. I'm thinking really hard about taking the Lakers +10. Not going to do it right now, but if this line goes up a bit, I'll play it. I'll see what it's at later today. GL today gentlemen Appreciate what you do here. Actually going to the Pacers game Feb 7th against Portland. Was hoping you'd say Pacers -10 instead of Lakers. I just think they will come out pissed off, Vogel has probably preached the piss poor starts they've had this trip so far first half, and the Pacers just come out and throttle them. I also think the bench will finally wake up as the Lakers play absolutely no D. Their going to have Ryan Kelly on PG??? You also mentioned they want a winning road trip, with the extra rest and the Lakers travel, i just dont see this Lakers team keeping the game within 10 points.
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alangrrbs | 954 |
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line's off the board at my book so we should know soon...
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Mikeda773 | 10 |
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Gut call. Do u think Nadal or Fed wins???
thanks for your picks, great tourney!
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n3gative | 179 |
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That lines not yet up at my book yet. I''m seeing +5.5 at home for the Flames, so yeah that would be the 14th home dog of the day...
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denniep | 5 |
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6-1 ATS last 3 days...5-2 S/U!!!
There's 13 on the board today...do you play them all??? Which ones stick out to you guys? Here goes: Hofstra +4.5 South Fla +13.5 Duquesne +10 Miami +5 Illinois St +8.5 Loyola Chicago +5.5 Bradley +5.5 Mississippi St +1 Air Force +1.5 Minnesota +2.5 San Jose St +14 Washington St +2 USC +7.5 Any thoughts/insights are much appreciated... |
denniep | 5 |
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