dereksutton

people count their chips before they rack up and leave the table.

Two of the worst teams in baseball couldn't possibly blow early leads...no way.

Guys, I'm not talking in short terms saying today's game will be won by x. I'm saying that overall, teams and players don't quit. Does a struggling brokerage firm say "fuck it, we'll just pin the Wall Street Journal on the wall and throw darts at it"? Does a salesperson say, "I haven't made a sale in a while and haven't been meeting my numbers. I'll just say 'fuck it' til next year."

And way besides that point, I think if someone is going to place bets not by looking at pitcher vs hitter trends, ballpark advantages, detailed stats, etc. but instead place bets based on a tv interview where a manager (whose job it is to motivate and inspire his team) implies that his team is made up of quitters, they're in trouble.

By the way, Francisco definitely looked like he didn't really give a shit about his or the team's performance. That is apathy defined right there.

@NoWorries21

First of all, I think (as I said) the effects last longer than one night. Players will get extra rest at different points across the length of the series, and the bullpen will take more than one game to get itself right. Secondly, I don't INTEND to hedge, but that will be an option if the Padres win either of the first 2 games, and you could have the option to freeroll (albeit for a small amount) if the line for game 3 is Pirates -1 at +100 or better.

I was just making the point that for the game tonight, the Padres will be favored. I know I'm speculating, but I expect bettors who wish to play the Padres tonight will be laying (likely heavyish) chalk tonight on Volquez at home vs a call-up starter when they could bet the series price at +110 needing to win just one of the other games. The probablitity of the Padres winning games 2 and/or 3 needs to be very low for this not to be a better bet than laying -145 or so on one night's game.

There seem to be a lot of people here who want to take the Padres today after their 19 inning win + travel. The problem is, there is no line up for this game at many books. However, at my book at least, the line for the series is Pirates -140; Padres +110.

My take is that if you want to bet the Padres tonight, you should probably bet the series price. For one, the marathon game will have effects on the Pirates that last longer than one game. Their bullpen (if not the entire team) is and will continue to be completely taxed, especially if their unnamed starter tonight is unable to go deep into the game. I'm not sure if they've named a starter tonight for the Pirates, but I doubt the line will offer +money on the Padres for tonight's game...you can get the Padres taking the series at +110.

This goes without saying, but I'll say it anyway...you were going to bet the Padres tonight, but you bet the series price instead: if the Padres win, they need to win just one of the two remaining games. If they lose tonight, you will have lost your bet on tonight's game. By betting the series price, you still have a chance at your series bet if they lose tonight, and you have the option to hedge if they do win tonight.