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I hate to clutter your threads with my newb posts, but I thought it may be helpful if I commented on the gms I have looked at of yours and commented on these past few weeks.
4-1-1 when dogs are +140 or more 1-2-0 when even to +139 1-1-2 when -101 to -133 12/13 gms you either won or your pick lost by 1 goal(avs EN) Oh and one last biased one, that I probably screwed up, but 5/5 on the gms that I agreed with you starting with that car +214 and tor+166 in late Dec, which put you on my radar. I am sure I left out a few gms and I didn't comment on every gm so it is not a true reflection of your performance, but since I have been following you have had the best luck with them big dogs. GL, I may doubt you a lot, but I wouldn't be following you if I didn't respect you.
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Kipper | 13 |
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A little in hindsight, but I didn't have the chance to analyze your pick so here it is... Col:7-5 1rH(17-10 last yr), when on this much rest @ 7-6(6-13 last yr) So for a team that was 39-43 overall they went 17-10 on this much rest at home last yr, yikes this is certainly favorable for the avs. NSH:3-2 extra rest @(6-4 last yr) on extra rest at home is where they play well 4-3(started 4-0) and last year 11-2 with both losses being in OT, keep in mind that 7/13 of those went to OT. Anyway it is obvious that the dog here has the advantage on rest by a little and being the dog that is a good enough reason to bet on Col. Current score is 3-3 so I think you will be lucky to get away with the push haha, while I leave it up to unicorns and lollipops in OT because NSH on extra rest likes OT(more at Home but @ is still above avg) Col on the other hand has not liked OT this year and on this much rest is below avg to go to OT. Enough of my rant lets go predators=p GL
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Kipper | 13 |
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Hey kipper, yesterday I figured out Toronto as an underdog to be +0, but I don't think it is possible today. Can you help, using 3 way lines if nsh is +135 col +165 and draw +280 is it possible to make a +0? When I tried it seemed impossible due to the proximity of the the lines.
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Kipper | 13 |
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Nvm I figured it out=) You are the man already up +140 and still 0-0 near the end of the 2nd period in LA. Thanks for the pointer!
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Kipper | 20 |
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Hmmm, I need to look at this more in depth later, it looks a little complicated if you could give me an example that would be great. 3 way lines Tor +375 Los -155 and the draw I can get for +300 on if game goes to OT.
Oh and so I completed my analysis of your leafs Kipper, last year 3-8@ on no rest and 3-6 the previous year. At home last year 5-1 with 3 OT wins and 3-4 the previous year with 1 OT win. So 6-14 the past two yrs no rest @on top of 1-6 this year...I find it almost a little too overwhelming, but their last three no rest bout were decided by one goal and they are on a 3 gm win streak, also they are 10-4 since december with the +.5. Alright Kipper in the name of you being so clever I will go with Tor +.5 tonight there you happy! Even though Los was 10-4 on extra rest H last yr they were only only 6-5 previous to that. Los is good on extra rest home and Tor is bad on no rest @, but you know what I will give you your due respect and pick them -105 at +.5 GL
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Kipper | 20 |
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I figured that is what +0 meant, but alas I do not have that option=/ 3 way lines or +.5 are my subsitutes, which I will suffer with... nonetheless I couldn't follow your picks if I wanted to. Fortunately I called 3/3 of your picks yesterday so I only placed Toronto otherwise I wouldv'e lost $$$ because Stl would not have pushed for me. I really could use some luck now so let's see how it looks today. Wpg has won last 4/6 as for days rest they are as avg is it gets this year on 1 day rest with no OT bouts. As for Dal they are 7-3 with two OT wins on 1rH, but now are 7-5 on this much rest @. I can see value in +165, but they are down to +145 presently=/ I see the value in it but will lay off for no good reason You don't want to hear my rant on Toronto on no rest(as you have heard it before)...they finally won one in OT so are now 1-8 on nr(3/9 went to OT). Los on the other hand is 10-4 on extra rest with half yes half the games going into OT(ALL OT Wins). Specifically at H they are 5-3 on extra rest. If you were to pick the +.5 against them you would've went 7-1. -105 Tor +.5 is more desirable to me than what is now +170 ML. You must be getting these dogs at the opening line, I wonder how much extra you have made off of this alone lol, but seriously props to you on that I can never get the lines for any of your 3 picks with that much value I guess I need to move to Finland. Anyway if banking on the draw is the game why not +300 Draw this one...probably because the draw game is a dangerous one that has lost me a pretty penny this past year. MY PICK: +300 Draw=/ or maybe +.5 tor we will see, but looking at both teams there is a high propensity for a draw. Cgy oh my how I hate to disagree with you...but alas, cgy on this much rest at H is their best bet posting a 6-3 record(previously 6-1 prior to their recent losses)(2-5@) two of their home wins came in OT(did I mention how jealous I am of Kipper and his +0 option=/) Is that your gameplan ignore OT while the bookmakers treat OT wins just like regulation wins and get those ridiculously high dog lines??? The world may never know. As for Arizona they are 6-5(3/11Draw) on extra rest and 2-2@. In regulation they are 5-3 for those of you...nvm PICK:with KIP cgy is only 4-3 when regulation ends at home and 2-4@. I won't though for obvious reasons and without an OT push I would give th ML favor actually to cgy at home on this much rest where they play above avg.
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Kipper | 20 |
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Oh, also what is the +0 called, I don't think my book has that option=( And why do you prefer it to ML.
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Kipper | 11 |
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I'm with you on Toronto as I see value. Why they get +140 is besides me, but I'll take it. Both teams on extra rest play above avg. As for car/van they both are pretty bad on this much rest so I think Car is an ok bet, but a coin flip to me. As for Stl I do not like them in this position for -125, I see too much in favor of the avalanche who are a little above avg on this much rest, while stl is 3-5 on this much rest @.
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Kipper | 11 |
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You aren't gonna take min? -145 at +.5 I thought was worth it considering how often they lose in OT. Florida has to be tired after all these wins haha dramatic finish...?
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Hog_Wild | 6 |
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GL, I think this one is a toss up and would go with nyi -110 though. I have a good feeling about them, but don't see any value.
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centralflaguy | 9 |
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haha you get my +1, there ya go
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Hog_Wild | 5 |
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Thanks Kipper, I think I am going to instead go with pit -130. I used to follow Pit and saw that their very favorite time to W was the first gm of a home stint on 1 days rest so... I take it you don't like NJ+.5 at -130, another team that likes to draw at home no matter the rest?
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Kipper | 13 |
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Just a reminder the r means rest H means home. Hope you don't mind me commenting on your picks Kipper. TOR is 14-22 this year, but 5-5 on extra rest(4/10 went to OT), They also have gone 4-1-1 in their past 6 extra rest bouts. Stl is 4-5 on 1r@ this season(8-4 1rH) so on this much rest they do well at home but are below avg @. PICK:I'll take +105 Tor as well, what more can you ask for tor performs better on this much rest at home and stl plays below avg this much rest @ NSH is 3-6 @1r with 3/9 going to OT(7-5 1rH) They did win their last 3 H bouts on 1r so hopefully that transfers to playing away(lost last 4/5 with 2 OT losses) Car is 4-6 H1r, but won their last 4/5, which would normally bother me, but it must really take a lot for Kip to bet against Carolina as he usually bets on them, so I'll ride it out with you(even though only 1 unit shows a little lack of faith haha) GL Also a side note on possible draw bouts:nyr/fla is my favorite and NJ/dal then Phi/Los. Any thoughts on these gms being possible +.5 gms because I know you pick +.5 often?
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Kipper | 13 |
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Fair enough haha, but why tonight? What about this situation do you like, is it the injuries from last night and no rest? Caps have been 4-2 on no rest and 4-0@ this year(4-7 last year, but you have already made it clear that stats from previous seasons are generally disregarded by you). Good luck and Happy New Year!
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Kipper | 13 |
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GL, you are due for a 1st period under good day. You seem to have knack for o/u. Happy NYE
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weeble5672 | 9 |
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I think NSH is in a good position here from their POV, as for Dallas they have been letting down a little as of recent and can afford the loss while the predators need the points. As for the Caps I can't see how one could bet against them on a 9 gm W strk, but some of their players got injured yesterday and I'm looking for a let down game here as well even though caps are 4-0 on no rest @ this year(0-2 at home though.) Caps are a different team from last year so I think any stats from the past are pointless, but they were 4-7 last year on no rest @.
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LeRinkRat | 14 |
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I find it hard to pick against you sir, but why are you betting against a 9 gm W strk of the Caps? Do W streaks not bother you, I know you only bet when there is value but how do you justify this haha. I am just trying to understand
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Kipper | 13 |
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I agree strongly with your blues -140, NSH is terrible on no rest and stl has been the best at home this yr on 1 day rest. I won't be picking them though because you took so long to post today that I analyzed Kips picks instead and he picekd nsh+.5 and I fear his hockey knowledge too much to bet against him haha(I said this before when Tor played on nr a week ago vs Ari so there is a chance.) Anyway I support your pick GL
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weeble5672 | 8 |
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Cool, thanks for those pointers I think they will direct me in the right direction for future picks. As for tonight i apologize for this long post but I commented on your 4 picks. I feel more unsure about them tonight, but that is probably because there are no big upsets in them lol.
I picked TOR ML also, Tor is playing well, NYI aren't not to mention how poorly NYI played @ on this much rest(I think the only chance NYI have at winning is in OT). I missed the boat with Carolina as the line is now -110, so I regretfully went with the draw+260 because I think there is value in it between these two teams(pretty much NJ at home lol). I am stymied once again by your selection of a team on no rest(NSH) when they have performed so poorly on such for years now, but they have to win one sometime, perhaps you see what I do not. I would pick stl -140 but I refuse to pick against you. Wpg has not had many draws this year and are a little below avg on this much rest(but than again they are a below avg team this yr). I like Det on no rest, (4-2 this yr and started 6-3 last yr) and the 3/7 draws on nr for det supports your pick, but I am conflicted with this pick as I think this gm could go either way and I can't bet on a -130 now.(maybe you can give us more of that +160 avs or +200 hurricanes=p) Boa sorte, I really have enjoyed following you and a few others picks as of recent, I agree with yours the most. |
Kipper | 21 |
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Thanks a lot Kipper, I really appreciate your wisdom. What about starting goalies, does that affect your decision a little or not at all? For example yesterday with the Avs.
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Kipper | 21 |
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