Erik48

@tjones1270

 Thanks for pointing that out. It is about as close to the Bator Rule as can be while falling 1 pt short.  Call it a 3/4 Bator Rule to be most accurate but it's up to each bettor to decide if it's going to be a factor in their choice for the game. But it is worthy of mention, not just fitting "a narrative"

There is a positive statistic for taking a team that scores less than 10 pts in each of the last 2 games but I cant find it for tonight.

The Giants scored 7 and 3 the past two weeks.

Similarly, going against a team that scores 30+ two weeks in arow and PITT has scored 32 and 37 past two weeks.  

Anyone have the records on either of these two angles?? 

@Yanasaur

@yeghia

@TJZags598

@NorCalKid27

Thank you for taking time to comment - Much appreciated!

I'm a commissioner in a CBS  Fantasy League.

Lineups LOCK 5 minutes before each players' game. 

As a commissioner:  If a player gets Locked out from making a lineup change, do you allow him to text/call you so you can use your commissioner powers to make the change as long as the game hasn't started?

As a player: do you expect your commish to do this for you if you get locked out?

I think missing the deadline is your own fault and the commissh should not step in. Why is it called a deadline if it isn't? It also opens the door to miscommunications with the opponent, or what if the commish is not even reachable before the game starts? 

If a player was incapacitated and asked me in advance to swap out a player that was announced active/inactive for example, I'd be ok with it. But the move would be done before any deadlines were violated.  

I'm being called the bad guy in this situation and don't think I deserve it. Interested to  hear what others think.  Thanks!

I’m a commissioner in a 12- team CBS fantasy football league. Our rules state that Any changes made to your lineup will lock five minutes prior to the start of that players game. 
I was contacted by a Team owner Who missed the deadline and was locked out from swapping out a player, but the game had not actually begun yet. He wanted me to make the change for him after the deadline, but before the game started. Am I responsible to do this as commissioner? 
I feel it was his responsibility to make the deadline and I refused to make any changes using my commissioner privilege. He claims every commissioner and league he’s ever been in would do this. 

NO +3

JAX -5.5

DET  +1.5

SEA  +3

BUF -9.5

SF  -1

BAL  -3.5

WAS -8

mnf   41

@theclaw

Do the Bucs fall into a partial or 3/4 Bator Rule?  (Scoring 30+ and allowing less than 10 in two consecutive games)

It's not complete but I believe you've given consideration to a partial Bator Rule in the past.

Last 2 games:

TB 32  PHI 9

TB   9  CAR 0

Thanks again Joe! 

@syracusejoe

 Thanks again for the winner Joe!

Erik (SU alum 1982)

   Thanks for the winner Joe! 

I like TEN when getting points and ATL as a road favorite for  first time since last year is a stretch.  Tennessee for mee.

The Bills just lost 2 of their last 3 games to JAX and N.E...  And were one play away from losing to the NYG. 

They've had 2 weeks to bounce back with a big game after losing to JAX and haven't done so yet. To expect them to turn it around in a short week is asking alot imo.

Bucs come in well-rested with few road games so far, but have defeated both MIN and SAINTS on the road already. They play Under games that keep them IN GAMES.

TB is 4th in blitz rate and we know what happened to Josh Allen against the Patriots blitz last week (On non-blitz plays, Allen was 17-22 163 yards 7.4 y/a;  When blitzing, Allen was only 10-19 102 yards 5.4 y/a). Bucs will be blitzing!

Lastly, the BIlls may also be looking ahead to their next game vs the Bengals. They'll have a more reasonable 10 days to get their act together for that one. 

TB + 8.5 

@haymo

 https://www.footballzebras.com/2023/10/week-8-referee-assignments-2023/

@begginerboy

 In support of your Giants play, the referee for the game is John Hussey- he's the #1 ref for Home teams.  Home teams are 65-46 ats  when Hussey is the official and, even better, the home team in division games is 34-13!  I'm a Commanders fan and my pools this week say Giants.

• John Hussey officiated the 49ers at Browns game in Week 6. That game had a combined 25 penalties for 224 yards. It was heavily criticized for over officiating and some questionable calls in the fourth quarter. That was the most penalties in a Hussey officiated contest since Week 1 of the 2018 season, when he called 26 for 236 yards. The following week he called just 10 penalties in a divisional game
• After a high penalty game with controversial calls, there is an emphasis on reigning in penalties the next week. Expect that this weekend from Hussey in the Giants versus Commanders contest. Prior to his Week 6 game, Hussey was averaging just 11 penalties per game, below the 2023 NFL average of 12.4 per game
• Hussey officiated the Giants versus Commanders game in 2022, a 20-12 Giants win with a controversial no-call on a defensive pass interference on the last play of the game
• The Giants are a top-10 penalized team for offensive holding infractions. Their defense is also top 10 at generating offensive holding penalties on the opposition when they play at home
• The Commanders offense is a slightly above average penalized unit for offensive holding penalties
• Hussey is calling 44% of his overall penalties on the home team in 2023, continuing a long trend of less than 50% on the home team

• John Hussey is 4-1 to the Under in 2023 with his games averaging 41 points
• Home teams in divisional games are 34-13 on the moneyline with John Hussey since the start of the 2016 NFL season, the best record of any referee in that span

There are two angles to this game.

The ‘Let ‘Em Play” component is immense. It has the makings of a grind it out contest, something along the lines of a 19-17 type game. So it goes without saying the under is worth serious consideration.

The home team angle with Hussey in these games is astounding.

If the Giants are to have a chance, it will be on the back of their defense. The less penalties the better here.

Every single one of SF’s opponents in 2022 lost its next game, if they’ve played the following week. 0-15.  

(The only footnote is that after the Chiefs defeated the 49ers in Week 7, Kansas City had a bye week in Week 8 before beating the Titans in Week 9.) 

In 2023, the record is 1-3.  In week 2, Pittsburgh WON defeating Cleveland 26-22 after playing the 49ers.

(Pitt was actually losing the game before a late TJ Watt fumble return for a TD.)

The next 3 opponents, Rams, NYG and AZ all lost the following week.

So record is now 1-18 and DALLAS is the next scheduled loser.

Goedert  Over 4.5 receptions 

@theclaw

 Thanks and agree.  Always look forward to your analyses and thanks again for helping me make the move to KC on gameday. I was on Cincy all week 

@soup-can

 Thanks for the input.  I think the Bator Rule has already been proven to be a successful system during regular season. I suppose one could find the games in which a bye week interrupted the schedule between the second and third game (similar to the bye week before the SB), but as you say, it was difficult to find such a situation and I'm sure it is not a significant sample size.  And frankly the playoff examples do not represent a good sample size either.

  However, I think there is a difference in the Bator Rule  "regular season vs playoffs". During regular season, any team that achieves 30+ pts on offense while holding opponents to 10 pts or less on defense for two consecutive games, will create overconfidence by either the offense/defense or both in the 3rd game. Additioinally, linesmakers will need to inflate the lines as most bettors will use 'recency bias', expecting the trend to continue (which it usually does not). 

   Move onto the playoff scenario ... a second season of 3 (or4) games leading to the ultimate SB win.   Each game comes with greater motivation and knowledge that more effort will be needed at each level.  Any emotional regression far less likely than regular season imo.  And more likely to see a continuance of superior play - and that is how 3 of the last 4 similar situations played out.