Erik48

@ToneKapone13

  Thanks for your input. Based on odds from betmgm.com, I'll go down to the AC casino with plan to do the following:

Original ticket:  $20 on Wash to win NFL Conference Title  @ 80-1 = $1620 payout

Partial Hedge plan:  Take $500 reducing Commander win ticket to $1120, and bet "margin of victory" prop :

$250 on the Eagles to win by 1-6 pts  @ +300 = $1000 payout

$150 on the Eagles to win by 7-12 pts @ +250 = $675  payout

$100 on the Eagles to win by 14+ pts @ +250  = $350  payout   

Total $500 investment to win NET amts of $500(if Philly wins by 1-6), $175 (7-12)  or  -$150 (14+).

I think 500 is the most i want to use as a hedge and returns are best if Eagles win by 1-6 pts which is most probable imo)

@begginerboy

 Teams after playing Lions ended season at 4-13 ats when the Vikings lost to the Rams in the WC round. The Vikes played the Lions in their prior game which was their last reg season game.

Thanks KC I'm going to look into that option further  

@Cranky_Hank

 Former Eagle Zach Ertz anytime TD  +275 is my preferred

During pre-season I put $20 on the Commanders to win the NFC Conference at 80-1.  I need just one more win this week to cash it for $1600.

Looking at ways I might hedge this payout.  The only clear hedge I see is betting the Eagles ML and laying $250 to win $100.  Putting $1000 on the Eagles would alter my payours to $600 with a Commander win vs $400 with and Eagle win.  It's a pretty steep hadge and I'm more incllined to just let it ride.  

Question:   I'm not in Fanduel or Draftkings. Is their a way to join with a deposit of a few hundred and use their bonus promotional bets to playadditional Eagle bets on the ML ??

Appreciate any advice you may hae.  Thanks

@begginerboy

Why are so many excited about the Commanders?  Ding Dong the witch is dead! The stench of Dan snyder is barely out of the locker room after 30 years and in one short season, the Commanders have made their best draft pick in a quarter century and find themselves 2 games away from a super bowl.  For Redskins/Commander fans it's like being released from prison and finally seeing success replace decades of failure and misery.  Forgive them (us) if we are overexuberant at the overabundance of success we have been having the past few weeks. 

Similar to Lion's fans who earlier awakened from a deep state of losing, it's a natural reaction. And in view of the already unbelievable acheivements by Washinton, especially in the final moments of several past games, it is well within the realm of possibility to believe we can defeat the Lions tonight. We have overcome larger things already. And Hell, we only lost on the road to the Ravens by 6pts (and now we're better and getting 10).  THe pressure I think is on the Lions - a loss would be disastrous to Lion fans who've already made their plans for New Orleans, while a Commanders loss, while sad, would be more accepted as the end of a great transitional year of winning and a steppingstone to the future.   

I've never seen Lion fans so nervous about a game in which they are 10 point favorites! 

More scary stats:  

Detroit went 6-2 against teams that made the playoffs but only two of those wins were by seven or more points

Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 28-14 ATS (66%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Those same teams are 40-43-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs.

Divisional Round underdogs of 7-to-11 points are 12-25 straight up, winning more than one in three times with a 43% ROI on the moneyline.

Maybe Lions not the team of destiny after all...  it was the Commanders all along... (cue maniacle laugh) 

@begginerboy

+ Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 ATS (44%), including 3-5 ATS since 2020 (KC, DET). As a favorite of 7+ pts off a bye, they are 17-24-1 ATS (42%).
When the road team is coming into the round on a road trip (2nd road game or later), the team on the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%) (DET)

+ Teams with a bye in the playoffs entering the Divisional Round are cashing at a 44% ATS rate since 2003. If you combine the Super Bowl and Divisional Round, favorites off a bye week in the playoffs are 37-56-1 ATS (40%) in that span (KC, DET).

+ Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 28-14 ATS (66%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Those same teams are 40-43-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs.

+ Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 7-28 SU and 16-19 ATS in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Since 2011, those teams are 2-20 SU and 10-12 ATS.

From actionnetwork.com 

 We are likely to see both the Chiefs and Lions close as 7+ pt favorites. We haven’t seen two or more 7+ pt favorites go undefeated ATS in the Divisional Round since 2001, 16 different years in that span we had 2 or more big favorites play in this round without a 2-0 ATS round.

  On the other side, we haven’t seen two 7+ pt favorites lose outright in the Divisional Round since 2007-08 (IND vs SD and DAL vs NYG). In the Super Bowl era, we’ve never had two or more 7+ pt favorites in a Divisional Round and not have at least one win outright and advance.

Great writeup and agree that the game may come down to the intangibles including turnovers and penalties...  

Advantage BUFFALO with  turnover differential of +24 vs Ravens at +6. Home field and crowd noise should enhance the chance for turnovers in the Bills favor imo.

Another intangible may be the officiating crew of Carl Cheffers. There is a history of (over?)-penalizing the Ravens in the past.  With Cheffers crew, home teams are 82-53 ml since 2016 and Home Dogs 23-12-3 ats. Some crewmembers may be mixed with other referee crews during playoffs but I think we can expect similar results w/Cheffers leading

Lastly, I would lean Bills who now find themselves to be home underdogs, despite a dominant 9-0 home record...no respect is highly motivating! 

BILLS +1 

@theclaw

 I read Derick Carr is 1-14-1 ats as a road favorite.His one cover came indoors at  Indy.

I read Dereck Carr  1-14-1 ats as a road favorite. The one victory was indoors at Indy.

@tjones1270

 Thanks for pointing that out. It is about as close to the Bator Rule as can be while falling 1 pt short.  Call it a 3/4 Bator Rule to be most accurate but it's up to each bettor to decide if it's going to be a factor in their choice for the game. But it is worthy of mention, not just fitting "a narrative"

There is a positive statistic for taking a team that scores less than 10 pts in each of the last 2 games but I cant find it for tonight.

The Giants scored 7 and 3 the past two weeks.

Similarly, going against a team that scores 30+ two weeks in arow and PITT has scored 32 and 37 past two weeks.  

Anyone have the records on either of these two angles?? 

@Yanasaur

@yeghia

@TJZags598

@NorCalKid27

Thank you for taking time to comment - Much appreciated!

I'm a commissioner in a CBS  Fantasy League.

Lineups LOCK 5 minutes before each players' game. 

As a commissioner:  If a player gets Locked out from making a lineup change, do you allow him to text/call you so you can use your commissioner powers to make the change as long as the game hasn't started?

As a player: do you expect your commish to do this for you if you get locked out?

I think missing the deadline is your own fault and the commissh should not step in. Why is it called a deadline if it isn't? It also opens the door to miscommunications with the opponent, or what if the commish is not even reachable before the game starts? 

If a player was incapacitated and asked me in advance to swap out a player that was announced active/inactive for example, I'd be ok with it. But the move would be done before any deadlines were violated.  

I'm being called the bad guy in this situation and don't think I deserve it. Interested to  hear what others think.  Thanks!

I’m a commissioner in a 12- team CBS fantasy football league. Our rules state that Any changes made to your lineup will lock five minutes prior to the start of that players game. 
I was contacted by a Team owner Who missed the deadline and was locked out from swapping out a player, but the game had not actually begun yet. He wanted me to make the change for him after the deadline, but before the game started. Am I responsible to do this as commissioner? 
I feel it was his responsibility to make the deadline and I refused to make any changes using my commissioner privilege. He claims every commissioner and league he’s ever been in would do this. 

NO +3

JAX -5.5

DET  +1.5

SEA  +3

BUF -9.5

SF  -1

BAL  -3.5

WAS -8

mnf   41