Everyman

Hawks +170

Snyder will show why he was the right man for the job. I expect the Hawks to find ways to keep Trae out of the Bam double that he cant pass out of. Maybe more guard to guard screens. Hawks like to set screens high for Trae so he has more space to operate going down hill but they should probably just set the screens much lower so he has more space to retreat when doubled and take the advantage. Personally think they should also initiate more offense through Bogdanovic and have both Trae and Dejounte off ball. Whatever the right adjustment is I believe Snyder will make it.

Twolves +275

Losing Gobert doesn't matter much here imo and they might be better off.  Jaden McDaniel's hurts but they will slot in Taurean who is a fine poor mans version. Towns back at center makes me like AD and Towns props in the battle of Kentucky bigs.  Not much else analysis except I think Towns will have a big game and lead the Wolves to victory. I also think Lebron would much prefer to play the Nuggets than the Grizzlies 

Hawks +170

Snyder will show why he was the right man for the job. I expect the Hawks to find ways to keep Trae out of the Bam double that he cant pass out of. Maybe more guard to guard screens. Hawks like to set screens high for Trae so he has more space to operate going down hill but they should probably just set the screens much lower so he has more space to retreat when doubled and take the advantage. Personally think they should also initiate more offense through Bogdanovic and have both Trae and Dejounte off ball. Whatever the right adjustment is I believe Snyder will make it.

Twolves +275

Losing Gobert doesn't matter much here imo and they might be better off.  Jaden McDaniel's hurts but they will slot in Taurean who is a fine poor mans version. Towns back at center makes me like AD and Towns props in the battle of Kentucky bigs.  Not much else analysis except I think Towns will have a big game and lead the Wolves to victory. I also think Lebron would much prefer to play the Nuggets than the Grizzlies 

@stevenp

 That just means they get him at a big discount when they were willing to give up everything for him 6 months ago. They  wouldve given up more than they gave for dejounte which speaks to how much they value him. If it happens the Hawks will be cast as the young villans throughout the season. Trae and dejounte love to trash talk and simmons might be the most disliked player in the league. 

The atlanta hawks will trade for ben simmons. 

I believe it is very likely that the nets make a deal with the heat before the season starts. The nets want bam and everything the heat have to offer. I do not think the nets want to go into this season with kd and kyrie and would much prefer to hit the reset button but only if they get the proper value. Miami has the leverage but if they wait until the season starts and the nets are a top team then they lose a lot of that leverage. They also run the risk of he nets waiting on the suns and ayton being tradeable or a dark horse swooping in as cleveland did with donovan. They call pat riley the godfather for a reason and he is not going to pass up on a chance to bring durant to miami. The nets also want this done before the season so they can trade kyrie for the lakers 2 first rounders: Kyrie has little to no trade value mid season when everyone expects him to sign with la in the offseason. The nets are highly incentivised to make this deal before the season starts. Finally we get to atl and the nets needing to get off simmons in order to get bam. Hawks were one of the main suitors when philly looked to trade  simmons and offered collins bogdanovic and 3 picks. They want him badly and likely believe putting him in the pick and roll with trae would be unstoppable. He would be traes draymond. They also need a large wing defender for giannis, tatum and durant. Their Gm landry fields has been open about wanting to make roster changes this offseason. They offer okungwu in the spurs trade instead of a first rounder but the spurssaid no. You only get off ur 21 year old number 6 pick who has promise because u have a move in mind. They also traded huerter for a pick and expiring smaller salaries that make a trade easier. All signs point to atl gearing up to make a big move. They also have collins as a trade asset that brooklyn is interested in. Atl will have competitionfrom a few other teams like portland, sac and indiana but indiana and sac seem much less likely than they did a year ago. Atl has a great chance to facilite a nets heat trade and get simmons on a discount. Despite all the hate he is a top 5 defender and an elite passer. On atl he wld not be asked to do anything more than what hes great at. 
Ps. If they get simmons on enough of a discount they might still have the assets to flip capela and x for ayton come Jan 15th.

HAWKS to win championship

+5000

Hawks to win Eastern Conference

+ 2500

This series has been a hard fought battle. This should be a great game 7. The celtics have looked great on offense when they move the ball and genuinely play unselfish. The problem is that they are a young team with guys trying to prove themselves. Tatums decision making in the first half of game 6 was amazing. He moved the ball and didn't force shots and dropped 18. In the second half he made much worse choices, forcing a bunch of difficult shots but still making them. When they get down or the other team makes a run the celtics too often revert to an iso game of difficult shots. These are very hard to make in a game 7 of an exhausting series. Jrue was also on jaylen for much of last game which i expect to change today. Horford and williams both look tired from guarding giannis. The celtics have aslo played their guys more minutes. I don't think they will have their legs when it matters. The bucks are a team with a clear identity where everyone understands their role. This is very valuable in team sports. Giannis is also very smart about changing up how he plays. He was looking to score first and not to pass first the last couple of games. He's also taken a bunch of jump shots and 3s too keep the defense honest. Defenders moving up a couple of feet vs standing in the paint waiting makes a huge difference in giannis' ability to get by them. He does that for these games where he wont waste possessions and will attack the rim and find his guys. These games are chess matches and bucks will have the final move.

Bucks ML +185

ps. I think Grayson and Brooke step up

Raptors -2.5

Wolves -6

Raptor Wizards

The Raptors looked good in preseason. OG has gotten much better and may end up a front runner for Most improved player. The raptors play fast paced and run on misses. The wizards were subpar with their transition and fast break defense throughout preseason. They are also missing Hachimura badly. They are undersized and forced to play Kuzma at the 4 and Kispert as their back up power forward. The Raptors should get a lot of shots at the rim and get good looks in transition. Without a huge game from Beal I don't see how they will keep up scoring wise. The raptors also beat the Wizards in preseason on a back to back where they had to fly from toronto to washington and were down van vleet and og. The wizards starters outplayed the raptors depleted starters and the second and 3rd unit won the game for Toronto but there was enough to show that the Wizards will struggle stopping OG and company from getting to the rim. 

Twolves Rockets

Two bottom feeders from last season but the Wolves have playoff hopes and played every preseason game as if it was regular season. Guys were playing defense, playing hard and getting on each other for defense lapses etc. This team preached defense all preseason and lived up to it. They are deep and have guys competing for time and roster spots which always helps to get maximum effort. They were cheering hard for eachother and towns and dlo were coaching from the bench. Towns and Dlo looked great on offense and are clearly trying to turn this franchise around. They need to find a way to be that aggressive and still get Edwards involved if they really are going to have a playoff shot but they are good enough to handle the rockets. The rockets will be a lottery team again and the players know that. I saw none of the same intensity or fight in the rockets players. They have a younger and less talented roster and Minnesota will be playing harder.. 

Ps. I am buying into the Twolves turnaround and suspect they might be the suns or hawks of this season with a less drastic turnaround.. 

Other leans/thoughts:

Not sure if Chicago is as good as they looked in preseason. They were playing starters more than anyone so their preseason results are less reliable. I also don't think they move the ball well enough to be as good as they might seem. They seem to end up in one on one situations too often and or take shots after one or two passes. I suspect Detroit will win one of their two early season match ups. 

The Raptors are down VanVleet and OG but the raptors have been playing very hard all preseason. In competitive games Nick Nurse is playing his starters almost 30 mins. I expect to see high minutes for Precious, Barnes and Trent. All 3 looked good last game. Precious and Barnes are very good players and I expect big games from both. Dragic rested last night and will also get heavy minutes. The raptors push the ball on offense and get to the rim. On defense they play hard and get into passing lanes. They have length and size that the Wizards are lacking. The Wizards also seem to be playing much slower and trying to integrate their new plays. The raptors are running and playing a more fluid game.. 

Raptors +7.5

(strongly considering Raptors +240)  

Like most people I expect Bud to use more small ball today. There is a strong argument to be made that he should stay big because of the offensive rebounding issues. Extra possessions in the last couple minutes of a game are huge. Brook was also coming up way to far and then was forced to back pedal and try and keep up with Trae. He did this against Durant and it worked at times because Durant takes long twos and Brook has enough speed to back pedal and still challenge a Durant drive. Trae doesn't take many long twos so Brooke should probably just take a couple steps back and stop the tear drop... I do suspect Bud might cave to what everyone including his players think is best and go small ball. I think this will lead to less scoring from Trae but more assist and facilitation. I also think there will be more offense ran though bogdanovic and huerter. Every time Giannis switched onto Trae he launched a 30 footer and didn't even think about attacking the rim. My guess is they screen with capela and get Giannis on Trae 30 feet away from the basket and then they swing the ball to whoever Pat Connaughton is guarding and they run a second screen and role with someone other then Giannis defending a Capela. Ends with a Bogdanovic or Heurter pick and roll with Capela being defended by Pat C and either Pj Tucker or Middleton. You then have Capela crashing with and advantage and Collins coming in weak side for boards. I also expect Giannis to have a big game and for Middleton to likely bounce back.

(Bogdanovic said his knee felt good last game, hes been getting a reduced work load and treatment around the clock, when that knee starts feeling better he will have a big game. He defended Jrue much better then Huerter so I expect him to play much more if the knee holds up. Also suspect Nates counter will include less Solomon Hill and more Bogdanovic and Heurter together down the stretch)

HAWKS + 7
HAWKS ML

Not for long in reference to PG. Crowder cant guard him. 

not for long...

Did they just start Terrence MAnn? 

@Everyman

 Clippers ML -102

Ty Lue should probably play Mann a lot more and Morris much less this game. Morris is banged up and shooting poorly and unable to get the better of Crowder defense. I think he should start Mann and play 4 out one in. Paul George isn't getting good shots and they need more shot creation. This adjustment would force Crowder to guard Paul George. George torched him in game 1 and they switched Crowder onto Morris. This would likely lead to more ball movement and a big game from Paul George. Crowder is not a traditional four and stands at the 3 point line. Paul George can then rest on defense guarding Crowder and roam/play help side on defense. (Suspect this might get Crowder a few open 3's for prop betters when PG helps on Booker etc) (Also suspect this might get Zubac a few extra boards)

Of course I'm not sure this will be Ty Lue adjustment but it just makes the most sense to me. 

Leaning Clippers in the Over but will post pick later...

Thanks.. Lmao at Cousins. Maybe the worst defender in the league. 

I think we may see something similar to the suns clippers game 1. The bucks may go deeper into their bench after a long series where their starters logged heavy minutes. Portis and Forbes may get some run this game. I also think the Bucks will struggle to defend against trae youngs quickness and speed. The Clippers used the same small ball approach in game 1 that they had previously been using and it failed against a mobile agile big that can finish like Ayton. I suspect Bud will use his normal defense where perimeter defenders try and get over or crowd the shooter on screens and brook Lopez drops giving up the mid range. If their is an adjustment it will be trapping Trae. Either way I suspect Traes quickness, shooting and passing ability will be very effective against this defense and allow the Hawks to sneak away with game 1. Look at how much trouble Cameron Paynes speed and passing has hurt an unsuspecting Clippers team. Paul George is a great wing defender but can't stay in front of Payne. Matchups matter and the Hawks match up well against this Bucks team. Jrue is a great defender but Capela sets strong screens and Trae is a master at coming off them with space to operate.

HAWKS +280

Don't bet over unders often but last game was trending hard in the under until boogie came into the game. His defense is awful and he can score at will on Saric. Ty Lue went deeper into rotation then normal because he wanted to see what guys had and likely to also get his starters some rest. MY guess is boogie doesn't play much if at all tonight and now  the clippers have a game and time to prepare a better defense scheme. Ty Lue said booker was scoring because they weren't picking him up early enough. I expect half court if not full court pressure on booker.

Also if you like random probably dumb angles.. I think its been a while since a dog has covered spread and still lost the game. This would be a great spot for the clippers cover and phoenix ML 

Under 223

@AmAcorX

 Respect that angle but imo if you watched the wolves in the last couple weeks they are the more motivated team, playing the better defense and just seem more motivated as strange as that is... gl tho

This team is playing their best basketball and looking to be the suns and not to tank. They are deep, defending and their offense is starting to click. Edwards did not seem to be very into the warriors game until the 3rd where he was told to get after it and ended up taking over the game.  Edwards seemed more engaged and excited in his post game then I've seen in a while. This team gets another win tonight in front of their home crowd. 

Minnesota ML +145

If your playing the over under then my lean would be the over.. Towns mentioned how they need to push the ball more and when Edwards is engaged they play faster. Towns (the orchestrator of this team coming together) is also coming off a poor shooting night and will be getting Hernangomez defense so I expect a big game from Towns. 

@Ih8coldweath

Just some thoughts... Pretty sure this will be a playoff atmosphere game. Dame has made some comments that have probably rubbed some of the nets the wrong way. He has said they are buying a ring. He also commented on a twitter post of Durant listing the top 5 players he has played with that didn't include russ. In Durants post game of Indiana he mentioned that he was hoping to play in this game but he had to come back in against Indiana because they made a run. I think both sides have had this game circled. My lean is the blazers