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This is my 1st time back on Covers since whenever World Cup was. Before the last WC it was probably over a decade. I can't believe you still post in here and put up with this crap Van |
vanzack | 140 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by GAM: @brn2loslive2win Curious about this as well. I was rolling through Van's twitter follows to see if there's anything in there I should pay attention to and noticed we follow a few of the same golf accounts. Seems like a statistical sport Van could be profitable in and it's so much easier than the grind of a football season IMO. Congrats on a great NFL season, Van Ahhh.... Good detectives here... So I have been curious about golf betting. Smaller market, not very mature - with lots of emerging data sources and a schedule that fits in well with mine - all a very good formula for what I like to do. So 2 years ago I started tracking data, working data, and getting familiar with it all. If you cant tell by now - I am not going to do anything until I am fairly sure I can make a good go of it - so I have spent two years simulating wagering. I am glad I did. First off - there is a pretty big house hold on a lot of the types of bets you can get edges on. Hard to bet in to 40 cent spreads on head to heads - which is what a lot of books offer. Exchanges offer wagering - but getting matched for any bets of size is still difficult - but getting better. Last season, I was a -.9% theoretical EV - which is not so bad. But not good enough to start wagering yet. But getting closer and closer. I do love the data side of golf. I dont know if there is a better data sport out there (MLB probably). My best (probably worst) golf wagering story.... I had a "fun" bet on Justin Rose to win the Masters the year he lost to Sergio Garcia in a playoff. I had the wager at a bitcoin book - and I think my odds were like 20-1 on Rose to win - and at the time I would have won about 60 bitcoin which was about 80k at the time (from memory). Rose had a 2 shot lead with 2 holes to play (memory), and choked the whole thing up and went to extra holes and lost. At the time I was sick that I didnt win 80k, but that 60 bitcoin at todays prices is about $2.4M. I try not to think about it lol.
Just sickening when you convert it to current value
I look forward to the day a couple years from now that I can consult your golf card on Twitter or share in discussions here on Covers about the weekly events |
vanzack | 140 |
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Also not that it should factor into decisions about making money betting sports, but I haven't experienced a thrill in gambling like hitting a golf outright. When you bet some college football team ML +850 and it comes through you're a god for a day but in golf betting that's just betting chalk. Nothing like nailing a 100/1 outright. |
vanzack | 140 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
@brn2loslive2win I'm not VZ but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night. Seriously, golf is a goldmine for those who follow the sport. Picking Top 40's at plus money is like shooting fish in a barrel. I lose some weeks but golf has been my bread and butter winner for years. Avoid picking the winner. Concentrate on Top 10's to 40's and winning scores relative to par.
I see a lot of guys that have success doing this but it feels like another grind to me and I have so far been horrible at it in the 3 years been betting golf. Had much more success betting outright winners. Love the massive return on investment and that I expect to lose most weeks so it doesn't piss me off when I do lol. |
vanzack | 140 |
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@brn2loslive2win Curious about this as well. I was rolling through Van's twitter follows to see if there's anything in there I should pay attention to and noticed we follow a few of the same golf accounts. Seems like a statistical sport Van could be profitable in and it's so much easier than the grind of a football season IMO. Congrats on a great NFL season, Van |
vanzack | 140 |
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What a boring final. Congrats Van |
vanzack | 433 |
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@tommyla
if you can bet both to advance at +100000 you should do it |
vanzack | 433 |
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Any thoughts on Morocco +1100 to win the whole thing? Rolls the 1 unit to advance into a natural hedge against Argentina future. |
vanzack | 433 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
What a great day. “But Vanzack, you lost a ton of money today”! Yes, I did. I went 0-2 today, and lost something like 6 units. Ouch. And I am not minimizing the reality of anyone who followed. But…. I am rarely a “fan” of sports. What we gamblers do beats the fan out of us. That childhood team that your dad took you to games to see? All of that allegiance is gone when you make that first bet against that team and root against them. We are not fans of any player, any team, any sport – we are extreme capitalists looking for our next edge. Today is one of the very rare days where I am just thankful to be a part of this. The two matches we witnessed today were amazing spectacles, both dramas on the highest level – with characters that are hard not to root for – or against. Tomorrow, it will all wash away as I pour over statistics, stare at a lines screen, think about risk and reward – but today…. Was childhood feelings. That great feeling I had when my dad took me to the game and we won a big one – and saw something magical. Today was also very humbling – something we all need. I analyzed these matches to death – came up with likely scenarios – and in the second match it came down to a 13 year old pee wee league strategy of putting in your tallest guys and lump the ball forward and hope for the best. Literally. And it worked. Nobody predicted that – I don’t care who you are. Nobody knew that we were going to witness two masterpieces that probably wouldn’t be equaled if they played those games another 100 times. We were lucky today. We deal in razor thin margins in handicapping. Bettors have totally unrealistic expectations of success, and winning a little is never enough. I am victim of this also from time to time. Today knocked me back to reality. If there is a + sign next to your bankroll – you are doing something better than 95% of the folks out there trying to do the same thing. Be grateful – be humble. Sometimes life puts these lessons in front of our faces – it is up to us to open our eyes.
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vanzack | 433 |
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Anyone have XG data on that first 90? |
vanzack | 433 |
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Mostly agree BIGDTITLE Prior to Morocco win saw around 1400, then 1000 after Morocco upset, then after Portugal win around 650 then the market moved it to the 585 it's sitting at now. But yes a large portion attributable to simply advancing and the favorable path to the title. |
vanzack | 433 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:
Van, you still have a live ticket on that Portugal future to win the Cup.
3rd fave to take it @ Pinnacle +585 |
vanzack | 433 |
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At least Cokebooger had honor |
vanzack | 433 |
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Now just need the perfect result later w/ Switzerland +0.5 but Portugal advancing |
vanzack | 433 |
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I don't know what to root for the Switzerland pick or the Portugal to win WC +1600 future |
vanzack | 433 |
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Hey Van just wanted to pop in and say thanks for posting these up makes for an exciting month of action every four years that I would be clueless on without your write-ups. Especially love the post-mortems; gives me a lot more appreciation for what I just watched vs my own observations that are usually as deep as "Belgium sucks". |
vanzack | 433 |
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nice tourney Van - see you in a year for WC |
vanzack | 129 |
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vanzack | 129 |
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GL today |
vanzack | 129 |
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vanzack | 129 |
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