Griswold1

9-4

YTD 8-4 +3.6 units

all plays 1* so far

I improved to 66% on the season (while being really selective) with the Hornets win Monday.

1* Heat +4 1/2

It seems every year Spoelstra gets Miami hot at the end of the season when they have to win to survive.  After being just brutal (10 losses in a row!), the Heat have reversed course have won six straight SU and blew out the Celtics in Boston last night.  Play the hot team!  True, Miami is playing without rest and plays a Grizzlies team coming off four games against the best teams in the league.  And, there's always a chance Ja Morant will shoot somebody (what a goof).  But we're catching points here on a team that has finally gotten it together, has the best coach in the league and facing an opponent with an interim coach and an erratic star player.

YTD 7-4 +2.6 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Hornets PK

Utah has won only one game all month!  And March is a long month.  The Hornets are awful too but they at least have been winning the occasional game with four wins this month.  Charlotte was actually competitive its last three losses and almost beat New Orleans on the road yesterday.  It seems they're still trying.  Utah, on the other hand, has lost its last five by a combined 135 points!  In truth, this is a game of backups and both teams have tons of starters "out" as they chase the Cooper Flagg lottery.  But Charlotte is at home and seems the far likelier winner in a pick'em game.

YTD 6-4 +1.6 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Heat -3 1/2

I HATE playing cold teams but this is a reasonable line (which will likely go up as the day goes on) to lay on a Heat team desperate to win.  Miami has lost ten in row (!) but actually covered the last two and seems to be playing hard, based on excellent defensive numbers.  They get to play a Charlotte team that lost by 35 on the road in OKC Friday.  The Hornets big goal right now is to win the lottery, draft Cooper Flagg and keep him in North Carolina.  Miami's main goal is to win a play-in series like they always do and then suddenly play well in the playoffs, like they always do

YTD 6-3 +2.7 units

all plays 1* so far

I had an easy winner last night as the underdog Clippers whipped Cleveland SU.  Another dog tonight that should win SU:

1* Magic +2

Houston has won seven in a row but most of the teams were poor and the last two were unimpressive.  Rockets had to struggle to win at home against the atrocious Sixers.  Now they travel to face a Magic team playing with revenge after a loss in Houston nine days ago.  The Magic looks to have gotten back on track as they won at Cleveland last game and have covered three in a row.  

Opinion only:
Blazers +4 1/2 (Memphis on a horrid 2-13 ATS run)

YTD: 5-3 +1.7 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Clippers +3

Cleveland finally lost in its last game and it was ugly, losing at home to an Orlando team that shot only 42 percent.  They may be cooling off.  Opposite story for the Clippers: They've won six of their last seven including the last three by a combined 73 points!  Good spot for LAC playing with rest at home after another home game and with two games off after tonight.   Clippers have become the forgotten team in the loaded west and can make a statement here against the team with the best record in the league.

Opinion only:
Warriors +2 1/2 (even with GS without Curry, I'm not sure Milw should be favored on the road)

CBB YTD 0-1 1.1 units

Thursday:

1* Montana +17

I'm not sure any team has a worse Game 1 situation than Wisconsin.  The Badgers played four games in four days, losing the Big 10 title game Sunday and now have to play on three days rest in altitude at Denver.  This game screams: FLAT SPOT.  Montana isn't very big but runs up and down the court, playing at high pace.  Wisconsin likely wins but this is a lot of points to get vs a team with situational negatives.

Friday:

1* Oklahoma +4 1/2

Oklahoma lost a lot of games because it played in the murderous SEC where it seems every opponent was ranked.  But the Sooners have a lot of quality wins for the same reason and a really good player in Jeremiah Fears.  UConn just seems like a play-against with all the hype over the coach (60 Minutes interview, etc) and being a bit down in talent over the last couple of years.  Big East wasn't very deep this year and Oklahoma played a much tougher schedule in SEC.

Opinions only:

(leaning against two Big 10 teams):

Thursday:
High Point +8

Friday:
Grand Canyon +10 1/2

CBB 0-0

I'll have select post-season plays after not posting regular season here.  A good one tonight:

1* Louisville +6

Duke is an incredible team, particularly considering its youth and it is remarkable they are here despite the loss of the certain Player of the Year in Cooper Flagg.  But Duke blew a huge lead against NC last night and was fortunate to escape.  Duke has a #1 seed in the NCAA regardless of tonight's game.  It's a bigger deal for Louisville, a joke of a program until turning over the roster with lots of NIL money, all in one year.  Louisville is showing how to do it: find the right transfers and pay them.  To pull off an ACC tournament title in such a rapid turnaround would be a huge accomplishment and Louisville gets to do it against a depleted Duke team   (I know....I know....there are still two lottery picks on Duke's team tonight and two more who will be drafted).

YTD 5-2 +2.8 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Blazers +3

As good as the Pistons have been, this is a good spot to go against them.  They had a very hard fought loss last night at Golden State with Cunningham playing 38 minutes.  That's two losses in a row for Detroit.  Blazers have a day of rest and have a great 37-26 ATS record.  No NBA team has improved more from the early part of the season to know than Portland.  Blazers had to play Cleve, Bos and OKC in their last four and actually get some class relief here.  Hard to fade Detroit but this is the spot to do it

YTD 4-2 +1.8 units

all plays 1* so far

The Doncic-Davis trade has made the Lakers a legit title contender and the Mavericks appear trashed for the foreseeable future.  Good spot to play LA tonight:

1* Lakers -3 (-115)

The danger in playing the Lakers is you never know who might be a last minute scratch.  Still, LAL is playing as well as anybody in the league since the Doncic trade and the Knicks seem shaky even when winning.  Proof: The Knicks are on a 1-7 ATS slide even though they went 5-3 in that stretch.  The Lakers have won seven in a row and are 6-1 ATS in that stretch.  Key: The Lakers are the best defensive team in the league the last few weeks.  The Lakers have held opponents under 102 seven of the last eight.  They are holding their opponents to 42.9% FG on the season!  The Knicks are in the first of a back-to-back and have to play the Clippers tomorrow.

YTD 3-2 +0.8 units

all plays 1* so far

My first play since the break involves a team whose season is falling apart (SA) and one whose seasons was shot two months ago.  The game is playable:

1* Pelicans PK

I am posting this play early Sunday and believe the Pels may end up favored as the line probably keeps moving in their direction.  Both teams are a mess.  Wemby is done for the season, Popovich is done for his career and there seems to be no hope in getting into the playoffs.  New Orleans doesn't have many excuses either.  True, Murray is out for the season but they still have a lot of big time scorers and can win games with even minimal effort.  Here's my key: New Orl held Dallas to 43% shooting in the first game after the break which is usually a sign of defensive effort.  This is the first game of a back-to-back involving these teams and NO could win them both.  SA 2-6 ATS their last eight

As I stated, this was an overwhelming statistical knockout for the Eagles.  

Final season record:

16-10 +6.5 units

YTD 3-1 +1.9 units

all plays 1* so far

I won with the torrid Blazers in my last play Thursday.  Let's try the best game in the league tonight, featuring the two best records in the west:

1* Grizzlies +2

It's hard to go against OKC but this situation favors Memphis.  Thunder had to play last night at home and now travels while Grizzlies have two days of rest.  Memphis one of the hottest teams in the NBA and is chronically undervalued.  Memphis has won ten of its last eleven and beat a Raptors team by 31 last game.  That's the same Raptors team that kind of hung with OKC last night.  Memphis is a tremendous 33-17 ATS.  Grizzlies have shot over 50 percent seven of their last twelve while holding their opponents under 50 in eight of their last ten.  Memphis is 21-5 SU and 17-8 ATS at home.  Getting the two points is a big bonus on a team I think wins the game straight up

Portland has now covered eleven straight games and is on a 10-1 SU run but were actually a +1 1/2 dog as the late money went to Sacramento.  It almost seems like nobody is paying attention to what the Blazers are doing

YTD 2-1 +0.9 units

all plays 1* so far

I lost last night on the Mia-Sixers over thanks to a low scoring second half.  Let's play the hottest team in the league tonight:

1* Blazers ML -115

Portland has won nine of its last ten but the point spreads haven't caught up (although this line has already moved significantly in their favor).  The Kings are still sorting themselves out after the trade and were killed last night at home by an Orlando team that was in a huge slump.  Blazers on a 10-0 ATS run and are 31-19 ATS on season.

YTD 2-0 +2.0 units

all plays 1* so far

I improved to 2-0 (I don't start NBA until February) with a win Monday on Golden State.  Trying to catch a bad line early here as it's already soaring:

1* Heat/Sixers OVER 219

Both teams played last night and I don't expect much defensive effort.  Sixers are on a 9-3 OVER run and Heat on a 7-3 OVER stretch.  Sixers have shot over 50 percent three of their last four and over 45 percent 14 of the last 16 games.  Miami's defense isn't the same without Butler.  Heat lost last night in Chicago and may be very out of sync tonight especially if a Butler trade comes down or is imminent.  Those kinds of distractions affect defensive intensity more than offense (guys always want their points).

This line opened at 216 and is already flying skyward.  Catch it while you can.

Opinion only:
Sixers +1 (for some of the reasons expressed above)

YTD 15-10 +4.5 units

2* 3-2 +1.5 units

1* 12-8 +3.0 units

The Super Bowl normally isn't a great place for a big play because there are no secrets and the line is based on massive betting action.  But I think this year's game is a massive opportunity:

2* Eagles + 1 1/2

1)  Has there ever been a Super Bowl team that has been outgained on the season?  That's Kansas City this year.  It is virtually impossible to go 17-2 and be minus yardage but they are.  Eventually, you have to think that catches up to them.

2) The Eagles have a rare statistical sweep.  They have more yards per play on both runs and passes than KC and the Eagles defense likewise gives up fewer yards per play on runs and passes.

3) KC's strength is turnover margin as they virtually never turn  the ball over.  But the Eagles are also sensational at avoiding turnovers.

4) Eagles are 13-7 ATS while Chiefs are 9-10.

5)  Chiefs have benefited from numerous bad referee calls in their favor.  If it happens again the league's credibility is in danger.  I think that will weigh on the officiating crew.

6) Lone negative: Chiefs have the coaching advantage and Reid is incredible with extra time to prepare but every statistical factor in this game points to the underdog.  That's a big play.

Opinion only:

Under 48 1/2  (Both teams' strength is the defense but the playoffs have seen lots of scoring so I can't make this a full play)

YTD 1-0 +1.0 units

I made my first play of the season yesterday, winning with the Sixers and also hit my "opinion" play on Memphis.  Onward:

1* Warriors -3

Orlando is a total mess right now.  They just lost by a combined 43 to Portland and Utah!  The stats are worse.  The Magic shooting percentages have cratered.  They've been under 50% their last twelve games and under 40% in five of them.  The defense is also terrible.  In the last ten games, their BEST opponent FG percentage was 46 and they're giving up over 50 all the time.  Golden State just got smashed by an improving Phoenix team but GSW beat OKC the game before that.  Warriors aren't great right now but they're at home playing a team that is all messed up.  Magic is 2-10 SU its last 12 games.

1-0.  I'm unbeaten!

Celtics are now 35-15 SU but 19-31 ATS.  Very rare to win so often without covering.

NBA 0-0

I start playing the NBA in the second half (a tactic that has worked well for me in the past).  First play here:

1* Sixers +11

Boston has one of the worst ATS records in the NBA: 19-30.  They are the defending champion and a marquee name that just gets overbet.  The Sixers have covered five in a row, all as dogs with four being straight up wins.  Maxey is carrying this team while Embiid and George (as usual) are hurt.  Boston has the Cavs next, are in the middle of a road tripping and barely beat the depleted Pelicans last game.

Opinion only:
Grizzlies +3 (Portis, Milwaukee's Jimmy Butler, is pouting and hasn't played in a week, knowing he's going to be traded,  and the Bucks stars are all questionable.  Memphis is 30-17 ATS)