Griswold1

No way the Dodgers lose six straight.

Oops.

GL on your play but baseball is a game of streaks and good teams go on losing streaks and bad teams go on winning streaks over the course of a long year

I believe pitching/defense are 80-90% but this stat has me rethinking my theory.

The team that has given up the fewest runs in the National League this year is..........PITTSBURGH.

Ok, they're actually tied with the Mets and three other teams are within three runs, but still.  How do you give up the fewest runs in the league and still manage to be 18 under .500?  The obvious answer is the Pirates are terrible offensively.  They've scored only 319.  Believe it or not, that isn't the worst in baseball as the White Sox have scored only 318.

And the incredibly rotten Rockies only have 328 despite getting to play half their games in Coors Field.

YTD 1-0 +1.13 units

I hit my first play of the year Wednesday on the hot Blue Jays and I've got one today on another hot but undervalued team with a spectacular pitching situation:

1* Marlins +104

Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff is making his first appearance since 2023!  His seven AAA rehab starts were so-so.  Miami, on the other hand, has the most undervalued pitcher in MLB right now.  Edward Cabrera, after a slow start, is 3-1 with a 1.91 ERA over the last two months.  Yet, he's always an underdog in his starts, like today.  Marlins are on a 10-2 run and haven't been favored in ANY OF THEIR LAST 15 GAMES, even though they're winning almost all of them.  MLB is a game of streaks and you get great opportunities on bad, but hot, teams.  That's Miami right now.  Add in a torrid pitcher facing a guy off a 20-month layoff and get under go odds......I'm in.

Opinion only:

Twins -109 (another hot pitcher)

MLB YTD 0-0

I'm coming off a stunning NBA season here, but so what, this is baseball.  I only play the second half, prefer dogs who I think should be favored and am selective in plays.  My guiding rules: play the hot team, fade the cold team, focus on good starters who go deep into the game, ignore overall records and focus on how teams do home vs away.  Anyway, first play of the year:

1* Blue Jays +113

Berrios has given up one or zero ER in four of his last five starts.  Toronto has won five of six and were dogs in all of them, including tonight.  Jays are scoring a lot of runs.  Yankees' Warren coming off several strong starts but all were against really bad teams.  Yankees have been favored in their last 18 games!!  But they're on a 6-10 run and burning money like an arson fire.  Value on home dog.

NBA YTD 19-6 +12.2 units   (76% for the year)

Playoffs 10-0  (that'd be 100% for the post-season)

After going to 10-0 with Indy's easy and easily predictable win in Game 6 (OKC has been horrid on the road the whole post-season), I am quitting while way ahead and ending the season with the record above, including the UNBEATEN playoffs.

I can't find any real value here and I am going to stay selective.  I lean to OKC winning at home as they are the only team that has shown actual home court advantage in the playoffs.  And while every team that has covered ATS has also won straight up, I'm not laying money against Indiana, a team that has fattened my wallet this post season.

In all, this has been a post-season of no super team.  You normally need one superstar and two stars to win a title.  OKC has one superstar and maybe one star.  Indiana has no superstar and a couple of stars.  They survived because everybody else was old, burned out or banged up.

I'm not playing against OKC at home but I'm not going to lay 7 1/2 points against the way underrated Pacers.  I'm not playing the money line because it's too high.  So, I'll sit and watch.

I'm now 10-0 in the playoffs

On the season now 76% (19-6).

I stated in my write-up if Pacers committed no more than 15 turnovers they would cover.  Anything less, there' d be a Game 7.  Indy had only 10.  The result: a rout.

@Deejsurge

 I'm terrible at totals but will note that's the lowest number of the series and probably rightly so

NBA YTD 18-6 +11.2 units

all plays 1*

PLAYOFFS 9-0 !!

If I was in this for bragging rights, I wouldn't post anything just so I could say I ran the table in the playoffs and was unbeaten.  But I post the plays on which I make BIG bets, I'm very selective and I like tonight's game.

1* Pacers +6 1/2 (-115)

Way too much attention to Halliburton's status (although it is affecting the betting line).  Halliburton was a non-factor in Game 5, scoring only four points and missing all his shots.  He had a -13 +/- stat line meaning the Pacers were better when he was out of the game.  They can win, or at least cover, with everybody else.  OKC has covered only one road game in the post-season and that was by merely one point in Game 4 of this series.  Shooting percentages usually tell the tale of a game and even in OKC's Game 5 win, they were outshot.  Thunder made only 42% in the win and Pacers hung tough the whole game.  This is a survival game, which is a tremendous motivator.  Pacers will play very hard and have lots of weapons and the bench production has topped OKC's in this series.  And, do I expect Jalen Williams to score 40 again?  No.  OKC may win and the team that has won SU has covered every game in the series but 6 1/2 is a lot in what is at best a tossup game.  THE KEY TO THE GAME IS OKC FORCING TURNOVERS.  INDY HAD A TERRIBLE 22 IN GAME 5.  If Pacers can stay below 15, they cover.  Anything lower than that and we have a Game 7.

In my write-up I mentioned Indiana's ability to shoot over 50% and said they could win SU if they stayed at 12 or fewer turnovers.  They indeed limited their turnovers (13) and shot 51%.

Pacers had fewer turnovers than OKC.  If Thunder doesn't win turnover battle, they're not going to win the game

Now 9-0 in the playoffs

18-6 (75%) on the full season

NBA YTD 17-6 +10.2 units

(Playoffs 8-0)

all plays 1*

I remained unbeaten in the post-season and improved to 74% on the season hitting OKC's easy clinch in Game 5 of the T-Wolves series.  First play of the finals here as I try to keep it perfect:

1* Pacers +5 1/2

I always argue home court is irrelevant in the NBA playoffs but the one team to which it evidently still matters is OKC.  Thunder is now 0-7 ATS on the road in the post-season.  Indy's offense is close to unstoppable.  Even in getting killed in Game 2, Indiana shot a not-bad 45%.  They have shot over 50% in half their playoffs games.  They haven't lost two games in a row since April.  The thing that makes OKC tough and allows them to overcome being out-shot is all the turnovers they produce.  They always put up more shots than the opponents because of all the forced turnovers.  If Pacers keep turnovers under 12, they can win SU.  Indiana has been undervalued the whole post-season because of a misleadingly mediocre regular season.  They got real hot the last 25 games of the regular season and it continues in the playoffs.  Indiana is not a fluke.  

I wish they were all this easy.

Now a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs and 17-6 (74%) on the entire season.

Let me add more backup to my play:

While OKC has NOT been a good ATS team in the playoffs, their spread record at home this year (playoffs included) is OFF THE CHARTS:

Thunder is 33-14 ATS at home

While I keep insisting homecourt is irrelevant in the playoffs (look at Knicks-Pacers), the one team that clearly plays dramatically better at home is the Thunder and that has extended into the playoffs.

But, wait there's more:

OKC had not given up over 50% shooting in 25 straight games, but T-Wolves shot over 50% both games in Minnesota.  Do you really think that continues in Game 5?? I think it doesn't.

YTD 16-6 +9.2 units 

(Playoffs 7-0)

all plays 1* so far

I'm still uneaten in the post-season and hitting 73% on the season on limited plays.   My last one was on the Knicks in the clinching game 5 of their series with Boston.  This play is posted Monday night right as the opening line went up

1* Thunder -8

In a post-season of surprises OKC has been the one predictable team.  The best regular season team in the west is going to win the west.  Minnesota has simply not shown the firepower to stay with the Thunder and the Game 4 loss at home seemed to be a last gasp.  The T-Wolves shot 51 percent and got an epic performance from DiVicenzo but still lost.   They'll shoot poorer in game 5 as OKC's defense has been excellent most of the post-season often holding teams below 40 percent.  Anthony Edwards is seemingly banged up or just can't escape the Thunder D as he was invisible in Game 4.  The Thunder, on the other hand, are getting consistent performances from SGA, Holmgren and a deep supporting cast.  I HATE laying points in the playoffs but this one could be a rout

This is from another handicapper (and forwarded to me by a friend).

Over the last 28 years, teams trailing by 7 or more with 50 seconds left in a playoff game were 1-1702.

The Pacers have done it THREE TIMES this post-season.

The record is now 4-1702.

Prior to that 28 year threshold, the Pacers (in 1995) also came back from a 7+ deficit in the last 50 seconds and it was also the Knicks and in the Garden (the legendary Reggie Miller game).

Don't kill the messenger.  But if you're worried about what "the league" wants, you'll never be successful at this.   NBA refereeing is better than it has ever been which is shown by the death of home court advantage.  There are still lots of bad calls but not because of bias.

Personally, I lean to Denver and the points but it is not a play for me (I'm 7-0 in the playoffs on picks posted on this site).  OKC has played better than anybody else in the league all year and has a staggering coaching mismatch in this game, so I just can't lay big money on Denver.  However, Jokic is an incredible force, the Nuggets are playing good defense and the Nuggets have higher motivation (elimination game for them and YES, that is a serious betting factor).

But stop worrying about what the commissioner with the big ears wants.  If any of that mattered, the Lakers and Golden State wouldn't already be finished.

One other thing: Denver is on a 7-1 ATS (with a push) while OKC 1-6 ATS run because the linemakers just can't adjust from the regular season to the playoffs and are overweighting the Thunder

Logic123

Follow Logic123
Prospect

Participation Meter Joined: Nov, 2024 Posts: 323
POSTED: May. 12, 2025 - 1:33 PM ET #9
@HipB23

Celtics also have a defense and Knicks offense is turrible.

Hmmmm

*************************

My reply:

Knicks scored 70 in second half

16-6

7-0 in playoffs

Love the guy who trolled me after first half and comes back and claims it was for another forum

Looks like Tatum is second superstar to have Achilles in post-season

+6 1/2 is the line I bet at BetMGM and the line I see most places.   It's for the full game.  I don't make halftime bets because I'm no good at it

YTD 15-6 +8.2 units

all plays 1* so far

(Playoffs 6-0  +6.0 units)

I'm now 71% on the season and perfect in the playoffs after winning easily with Indiana last night.  One more tonight in a game that looks like a clone of last night's play:

1* Knicks +6 1/2

Four things are key in NBA Playoff betting.  1.  Home court advantage is non-existent.  2.  The regular season doesn't matter; what matters is NOW.  3.  Motivation changes in a series and the team that needs to win the most usually plays the best.  4.  The team that plays the best defense almost always wins.

Which leads to tonight's play.  Simply watching the three games so far reveals that the Knicks are playing with extreme intensity and the Celtics are not.  Shooting stats usually tell the story of a game and a series.  The Knicks have shot between 40 and 43% all three games and the 3-point shooting has been just awful.  That usually means you're down 3-0.  In fact, NYK has been over 50% only once in the playoffs.  Yet, they're winning.  This can only be explained by intense defense.  New York hasn't given up over 50% the whole playoffs and the 48% Boston got in Game 3 was  the highest against the Knicks in the post-season.   My knock on Thibodeau teams is he burns them out so badly in the regular season they have no game to step up in the post-season.  This year is different.  A lousy defensive team all year is playing great defense now.  NBA champs almost never repeat which means they lose somewhere.   This series may be it for Boston.