Griswold1

YTD 3-2 +0.8 units

all plays 1* so far

My first play since the break involves a team whose season is falling apart (SA) and one whose seasons was shot two months ago.  The game is playable:

1* Pelicans PK

I am posting this play early Sunday and believe the Pels may end up favored as the line probably keeps moving in their direction.  Both teams are a mess.  Wemby is done for the season, Popovich is done for his career and there seems to be no hope in getting into the playoffs.  New Orleans doesn't have many excuses either.  True, Murray is out for the season but they still have a lot of big time scorers and can win games with even minimal effort.  Here's my key: New Orl held Dallas to 43% shooting in the first game after the break which is usually a sign of defensive effort.  This is the first game of a back-to-back involving these teams and NO could win them both.  SA 2-6 ATS their last eight

As I stated, this was an overwhelming statistical knockout for the Eagles.  

Final season record:

16-10 +6.5 units

YTD 3-1 +1.9 units

all plays 1* so far

I won with the torrid Blazers in my last play Thursday.  Let's try the best game in the league tonight, featuring the two best records in the west:

1* Grizzlies +2

It's hard to go against OKC but this situation favors Memphis.  Thunder had to play last night at home and now travels while Grizzlies have two days of rest.  Memphis one of the hottest teams in the NBA and is chronically undervalued.  Memphis has won ten of its last eleven and beat a Raptors team by 31 last game.  That's the same Raptors team that kind of hung with OKC last night.  Memphis is a tremendous 33-17 ATS.  Grizzlies have shot over 50 percent seven of their last twelve while holding their opponents under 50 in eight of their last ten.  Memphis is 21-5 SU and 17-8 ATS at home.  Getting the two points is a big bonus on a team I think wins the game straight up

Portland has now covered eleven straight games and is on a 10-1 SU run but were actually a +1 1/2 dog as the late money went to Sacramento.  It almost seems like nobody is paying attention to what the Blazers are doing

YTD 2-1 +0.9 units

all plays 1* so far

I lost last night on the Mia-Sixers over thanks to a low scoring second half.  Let's play the hottest team in the league tonight:

1* Blazers ML -115

Portland has won nine of its last ten but the point spreads haven't caught up (although this line has already moved significantly in their favor).  The Kings are still sorting themselves out after the trade and were killed last night at home by an Orlando team that was in a huge slump.  Blazers on a 10-0 ATS run and are 31-19 ATS on season.

YTD 2-0 +2.0 units

all plays 1* so far

I improved to 2-0 (I don't start NBA until February) with a win Monday on Golden State.  Trying to catch a bad line early here as it's already soaring:

1* Heat/Sixers OVER 219

Both teams played last night and I don't expect much defensive effort.  Sixers are on a 9-3 OVER run and Heat on a 7-3 OVER stretch.  Sixers have shot over 50 percent three of their last four and over 45 percent 14 of the last 16 games.  Miami's defense isn't the same without Butler.  Heat lost last night in Chicago and may be very out of sync tonight especially if a Butler trade comes down or is imminent.  Those kinds of distractions affect defensive intensity more than offense (guys always want their points).

This line opened at 216 and is already flying skyward.  Catch it while you can.

Opinion only:
Sixers +1 (for some of the reasons expressed above)

YTD 15-10 +4.5 units

2* 3-2 +1.5 units

1* 12-8 +3.0 units

The Super Bowl normally isn't a great place for a big play because there are no secrets and the line is based on massive betting action.  But I think this year's game is a massive opportunity:

2* Eagles + 1 1/2

1)  Has there ever been a Super Bowl team that has been outgained on the season?  That's Kansas City this year.  It is virtually impossible to go 17-2 and be minus yardage but they are.  Eventually, you have to think that catches up to them.

2) The Eagles have a rare statistical sweep.  They have more yards per play on both runs and passes than KC and the Eagles defense likewise gives up fewer yards per play on runs and passes.

3) KC's strength is turnover margin as they virtually never turn  the ball over.  But the Eagles are also sensational at avoiding turnovers.

4) Eagles are 13-7 ATS while Chiefs are 9-10.

5)  Chiefs have benefited from numerous bad referee calls in their favor.  If it happens again the league's credibility is in danger.  I think that will weigh on the officiating crew.

6) Lone negative: Chiefs have the coaching advantage and Reid is incredible with extra time to prepare but every statistical factor in this game points to the underdog.  That's a big play.

Opinion only:

Under 48 1/2  (Both teams' strength is the defense but the playoffs have seen lots of scoring so I can't make this a full play)

YTD 1-0 +1.0 units

I made my first play of the season yesterday, winning with the Sixers and also hit my "opinion" play on Memphis.  Onward:

1* Warriors -3

Orlando is a total mess right now.  They just lost by a combined 43 to Portland and Utah!  The stats are worse.  The Magic shooting percentages have cratered.  They've been under 50% their last twelve games and under 40% in five of them.  The defense is also terrible.  In the last ten games, their BEST opponent FG percentage was 46 and they're giving up over 50 all the time.  Golden State just got smashed by an improving Phoenix team but GSW beat OKC the game before that.  Warriors aren't great right now but they're at home playing a team that is all messed up.  Magic is 2-10 SU its last 12 games.

1-0.  I'm unbeaten!

Celtics are now 35-15 SU but 19-31 ATS.  Very rare to win so often without covering.

NBA 0-0

I start playing the NBA in the second half (a tactic that has worked well for me in the past).  First play here:

1* Sixers +11

Boston has one of the worst ATS records in the NBA: 19-30.  They are the defending champion and a marquee name that just gets overbet.  The Sixers have covered five in a row, all as dogs with four being straight up wins.  Maxey is carrying this team while Embiid and George (as usual) are hurt.  Boston has the Cavs next, are in the middle of a road tripping and barely beat the depleted Pelicans last game.

Opinion only:
Grizzlies +3 (Portis, Milwaukee's Jimmy Butler, is pouting and hasn't played in a week, knowing he's going to be traded,  and the Bucks stars are all questionable.  Memphis is 30-17 ATS)

70 years of incredible moves

Drafting Jerry West

Trading for Wilt Chamberlain

Trading For Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

Drafting Magic Johnson

Draft Day Trade To Get Kobe Bryant With 13th Pick (13th!!!)

Trading For Shaq

Signing Lebron

Getting Luca Doncic For A Guy In His 30s

There's a reason this franchise has been a contender virtually every year since 1960

@FRESH1014

 If you check my NFL record above, it's not too bad

I am adding one other point to my analysis.

Kansas City has actually been OUTGAINED ON THE SEASON!  That's unheard of for a team in conference final.  The only other team in the 14 team playoff field outgained on the season was Minnesota.  We saw what happened to them.

NFL YTD 15-9 +5.6 units

2* 3-2 +1.5 units

1* 12-7 +4.1 units

I pushed last week on the Eagles who had a lot more trouble with the Rams than I suspected.  I like the Eagles to win this weekend but 6 is just too many points.  That leaves the AFC game where the Chiefs are chasing history trying to join Green Bay as the only NFL franchise to win three consecutive championships.

1* Bills +1 1/2

KC is sitting on a loss.  They were very fortunate to beat a so-so Texans team last week.  In fact, both teams were outgained and outplayed last week and the Ravens might be in the title game were it not for Andrews' butterfingers.  I normally prefer the best defense in the post-season and that's KC but the offense is just anemic and is non-existent beyond Mahomes and Kelce.  Buffalo and Josh Allen are far superior offensively and the Bills narrow win over an outstanding Ravens team looks better than KC's win over Houston.  Maybe Taylor Swift's magic has worn off now that Trump is in the White House.

(The problem with my pick is that when you look at the big three factors in-post season, KC wins.  They have the coaching edge, the better defense and the QBs are a wash.  But the counter to that is the Chiefs have been winning rather unimpressively all year and as Minnesota demonstrated earlier, that eventually catches up to you.)  Value on the dog.

NFL YTD 15-9 +5.6 units

2* 3-2 +1.5 units

1* 12-7 +4.1 units

I went 1-1 last week but the win was on a 2* play on the Rams who exposed the Vikings.  Don't fall in love with the Rams:

2* Eagles -6

The Eagles can win the Super Bowl.  They are the most complete  team in the final eight.  The running game is outstanding and the defense is tremendous right now.   I had a big play on the Rams last week but that was mostly a play against a Vikings team that was demolished by Detroit a week earlier and won close games in which they were outgained all season.  The Rams now have to travel on a short week filled with disruptions because their home city is burning down.  The Eagles are home again.  Philadelphia is better on both sides of the ball.

Opinion only:

Lions -9 1/2 (I'd make this a full play but am concerned with the distractions created by both coordinators job hunting)

Eagles To Win Super Bowl +415

Since I'm getting a lot of gas for these picks, I'll point out some historic trends.  (I focus much more in fundamentals but when trends back your fundamental pick, it adds to the case.)

On my 2* pick, teams that played the Lions the previous week are 7-17 ATS.  This precise scenario played out this year when Minnesota lost SU to the Rams the week after playing Detroit.  Also, wild card favorites that didn't make the playoffs the prior year are 12-29 AT, a situation that covers the Vikings, although the way the line is moving they might not be favored by game time.

As for GB, a solid angle the last few years is to play them when they are a dog.  LaFleur is 24-12 ATS as a dog and 5-1 ATS when a dog by more than 3.   I'm not necessarily arguing GB wins.  But I think the talent on the two teams is very close and 4 1/2 is a lot of points in a tight matchup.

On the Broncos opinion, the number are against me as big wildcard faves have a spectacular record.  And I don't like rookie QBs in the playoffs.  I may not pull the trigger and might leave it as an "opinion."  

The Rams pick is my strongest of the season and I was tempted to up my wager and make it a 3* but I'll stand pat where I am 

NFL YTD 14-8 +4.7 units

2* 2-2 -0.5 units

1* 12-6 +5.2 units

I improved to 14-8 on the season with a 2-1 record in the final weekend.  One of my keys in the post-season is to ignore home field advantage as it is, in my opinion, becoming irrelevant.  The playoffs are also where teams with impressive but misleading SU records get exposed. So.....

Sunday:

1* Packers +4 1/2

Green Bay is better than its record.  Five of its six losses came in the brutal NFC North.  Had GB been in the East like Philly, its record might be the same as the Eagles.  The Packers defense is much improved this year with the only weakness being the two cornerbacks.  The QB matchup is close to even and both teams have tremendous RBs.  I think it is overwhelmingly likely this game goes to the wire so 4 1/2 is compelling value.

Opinion only;

Broncos +9  (will likely be upgraded to full play as I watch line movement)

Monday:

2* Rams +3 (-135)

Minnesota has escaped with close wins all season.  They have looked to me like a prime candidate for "one and done" in the post-season.  They were exposed in last week's blowout in Detroit.  The Rams have overachieved all year, have a great coach.  They won five in a row down the stretch, including a win over the Bills, before the meaningless final week loss.  They held three straight opponents to single digits in that stretch.  The Rams beat Minnesota during the regular season.  LAR started 1-4 and came back from the dead to get here.  Finally, Stafford is a lot more battle-tested in the post-season than Sam Darnold.

CFB YTD 19-16 +6.05 units

4* GOY 1-0 +4.0 units

2* 2-0 +4.0 units

1* 16-16 -1.95 units

Friday Cotton Bowl:

1* Texas +6

Texas all year dominated the CFB power ratings but suddenly is a six point dog?  That's an overreaction to Ohio State's dominant wins.  I don't know if playing in Dallas helps Texas so I won't say this is a true home dog.  But Texas dominated Clemson early and showed resilience in beating Arizona State after blowing a big lead.  If they can figure out how to play a second half, they're unstoppable.  I have no real knocks on Ohio State whose only two losses were by a combine four points but this is a lot of value in what could be a close game.

(Weird situation at Ohio State where idiot fans were ready to can Day only a couple of weeks ago.  They actually do seem care more about beating Michigan than winning the national title.  Ohio State is the best team and program in the country now even if their own fans can't see it.  Still, six points is a lot in game between two teams whose power ratings are close to even.)

NFL YTD 12-7 +3.8 units

2* 2-2 -0.5 units

1* 10-5 +4.3 units

My last pick was two weeks ago as Miami beat SF to improve my record to 12-7 on the year.  The NFL's final week is often unpredictable with motivation questions on a lot of teams.  Nonetheless, I'm diving in with three plays.

Saturday:

Bengals ML -125

Cincinnati has won four in a row and may simply be the better team right now.  Pittsburgh has lost three straight and got blown out by KC last week.  If the Ravens win earlier in the day (almost a cinch), Pittsburgh can't win the division and will be locked into a wild card spot.  They may then rest starters.

Sunday:

1* Buccaneers -13 1/2

New Orleans is awful right now and the coaching staff is lame duck with a house cleaning coming after the year.  NO has scored only 29 the last three weeks and Ratler has been really bad.  Tampa Bay has everything to play for as they win the division with a win and could get knocked out of the playoffs altogether with a loss.  Bucs have scored 112 the last three weeks and 475 on the season. No way NO can keep up.

1* Lions -2 1/2 (-115)

I know Detroit is beaten up on defense but the offense remains unstoppable.  The stakes for this game are huge.  The winner gets the #1 seed and a bye and the loser falls to 5 seed and has to play its playoff games on the road.  Both teams are 11-4-1 ATS but Campbell's spread record has been off the charts since he got to Detroit.  I normally prefer defense to offense in big games but the Lions at home are hard to oppose.

Opinion only:
Falcons -8

CFB YTD 18-15 +6.3 units

4* GOY 1-0 +4.0 units

2* 2-0 +4.0 units

1* 15-15 -1.7 units

Bowls 4-0 +8.0 units

I improved to 4-0 in the bowls with a 2* win on UConn Saturday and am +8.0 units in bowls.  Three on Monday and Tuesday, all at lines posted originally in last week's thread.  Again, I feel strongly the non-playoff bowl games are very beatable with some really weak lines.

Monday:

1* Iowa +3

While Iowa QB McNamara entered the portal, he wasn't that good and the strength of Iowa is its offensive line.  Missouri drew a rather soft SEC slate and got pummeled when they faced Alabama.  Iowa is a veteran teams whose players remember their drubbing in last year's bowl game.  The offense is better this year and they are catching points against a somewhat overrated team.

Tuesday:

1* Illinois +9 1/2

The line has moved up even more since I posted the play.  Illinois held its own in a pretty deep Big 10 this year.  South Carolina is a better team but Illinois' defense is pretty good.  The line is just too high.

1* Baylor ML -125

In this one the line keeps moving to Baylor and the ML is now closer to-170 from my original post.  Baylor is going to win.  The Bears were outstanding down the stretch after a slow start.  They won their last six SU in the Big 12 and the offense put up a lot of points.  Baylor has almost no opt-puts and the QB, who was outstanding down the stretch, is playing.  LSU was overrated all year and was only 4-8 ATS.  Kelly was able to keep most of the skill players in the bowl game but they lost BOTH starting offensive tackles.   This game could be something of a shootout and I'm going with the hot offense