Griswold1

NFL YTD 9-4 +4.2 units

2* 1-1 -0.3 units

1* 8-3 +4.5 units

I went 2-0 last week including an easy 2* win on the Broncos.

Monday:

1* Chargers +3

I went against Baltimore last week with the same premise as in this game.  Take a strong defense getting points against a strong offense.  Baltimore did hold Pittsburgh to 18 last week but that's a little misleading as the Steelers scored six times (all on FGs).   As good as the Ravens offense is, this is the worst defense in the Harbaugh era.  But the other Harbaugh has an excellent defense with the Chargers and are outstanding against the run.   The Chargers are flat out underrated.  They are 8-2 ATS and 7-3 SU.  Two of their three losses were to Pittsburgh and KC.   The offense has been very good and Justin Herbert is making no mistakes.   

Opinion only:

(Sunday) Bears +3 (they had GB beat last week; weird spot for Minnesota playing third straight road game)

YTD 11-13 -3.5 units

all plays 1* so far

My top play is in one of the great rivalries in all of college football: USC vs UCLA and it is just bizarre that this is now a Big 10 game.

2* USC -5

USC is the much better team even though the records don't really reflect it.  USC has a big time offense and switched QBs last week in putting up 28 on an excellent Nebraska defense.  UCLA was blown out by a mediocre Washington team in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated (UCLA got TD with ten seconds left).  USC's five losses are by a combined 19 points!  They're due to kill somebody and who better than the cross town rival.   Motivation is probably on USC side although UCLA needs to win to be bowl eligible.   Lincoln Riley has to win to calm the alumni down and he has better talent on both sides of the ball. 

1* Nebraska ML -128

Nebraska's offense stinks but has gotten better since they brought in former Houston coach Dana Holgorsen as OC.  But the Huskers defense is top notch.  Wisconsin is drained after almost beating #1 Oregon at home in a game in which the offense was so bad that OC Longo was fired after the game.   I suspect Wisconsin is flat and that the offensive coaching staff is more focused on their resumes than anything else.   Home game for Nebraska.

Opinion only:
Kansas State -8 1/2  (coming off two ugly games and need a rebound)

NFL YTD 7-4 +1.2 units

2* 0-1 -2.3 units

1* 7-3 +3.5 units

2* Broncos -2

Denver comes home after two tough road games including a mere two point loss at KC.  The Broncos defense is one of the best in the NFL.  Atlanta has had a soft schedule lately with two games each against the Bucs and the Saints, each of which has bad defenses.  Bo Nix has thrown only two picks the last seven games and is a good game manager.  Denver has lost two in a row and may be more highly motivated in this non-conf game than the Falcons.

1* Steelers +3 1/2

Baltimore has an elite offense and Pittsburgh has an elite defense.  That alone is a formula to take the points with a better D but the Ravens defense is just terrible and Wilson has gotten Pittsburgh's offense clicking.  Ravens have given up over 25 in six of their ten games.

Opinion only:
Patriots +5

YTD 10-12 -3.4 units

all plays 1* so far

1* Georgia Southern -7 1/2

Georgia Southern has a good QB, is gaining 400+ yards per game in conference play and faces a weak Troy defense.  Troy is only 2-7 SU.

1* Illinois -2 1/2 (-120)

Michigan State has had bad QB play (Chiles has only eight CDs and 12 INTs).  Illinois is off the bye and has several quality home wins.

Opinion only:
Rutgers +6

YTD 9-11 -3.3 units

all plays 1* so far

I like four dogs this weekend and am using my top two as full plays.

1* West Virginia +5

Rationale here is simple: both teams off the bye and seem statistically evenly matched.  Value getting 5 points.  Besides, West Virginia just elected a senator who goes everywhere with his dog.

1* North Texas +5 1/2

Army is unbeaten but hasn't played anybody.  I like that North Texas is off the bye as it has two weeks to prepare for Army's unique triple option offense.  While Army has been dominant on defense, North Texas scores on everybody and has an elite QB.  SU upset possible

Opinions only:

South Florida +3

Rutgers +6 1/2

YTD: -$916.49

2023:+$267.92

Del Mar Race 1

$25 to win place and show on #1 Spycatcher (15-1 program odds)

Del Mar Race 6  Gr. 1 Breeders Cup Distaff

$15 to win place and show on #9 Awesome Result (4-1)

Del Mar Race 8  Gr. 1 Breeders Cup Classic

$70 to win place and show on  #1 Forever Young (6-1)

$35 to win place and show #12 Arthur's Ride (15-1)

$10 exacta box 1-12

$4 exacta box 1-11-12

$3 trifecta box 1-11-12

YTD: -$943.09

2023: +$267.92

Two from the Breeder's Cu undercard:

Del Mar Race 2

$15 to win place and show on #4 Twirling Queen (6-1 program odds)

Del Mark Race 3

$12 to win place and show on #9 In the Air Tonight (15-1)

YTD 9-9 -1.0 units

all plays 1* so far

2-0 last week with wins on USC and Colorado.  Two Big 10 dogs this week:

1* Illinois +3 (-120)

Illinois' only losses are to Penn State and Oregon and they get to come back home against a Minnesota team with a mediocre offense and off a misleading win over an overrated Maryland team.  Illini defense is good and the offense with QB Altmeyer is solid too.

1* Penn State +3 1/2

Ohio State barely got by Nebraska last week and the Buckeyes offense under Chip Kelly has regressed this year.  Penn State has tremendous offensive and defensive lines and dominated the line of scrimmage vs Wisconsin last week.  The backup QB looked very good after Allar went down.  Penn State has four rather easy games after this one and has a major chance to go unbeaten in the regular season if they get by Ohio State.  Take the points in a game with two great defenses

Opinion only:
USC -2 1/2

NFL YTD 7-3 +2.4 units

2* 0-1 -2.3 units

1* 7-2 +4.7 units

1* Broncos +10 (-120)

Baltimore's defense has regressed badly this year, although it hasn't shown up in the won-loss record.  Ravens have given up 116 points the last four weeks.  True, the offense remains elite but Denver's defense is really good right now and the offense gets better every week as Nix gains more experience.  I acknowledge Denver has had a really soft schedule but in a league where hardly anybody is a double digit favorite anymore, we have two teams that are 5-3 yet the spread reflects an elite team playing some dump truck like the Panthers.  Ignore home field advantage as Broncos are 8-2 SU their last ten on the road.  I'm buying the hook here because it's my preference to get this to double digits as I feel Denver shouldn't be +10 to anybody in the NFL.

YTD: -$966.45

2023: +$267.92

Keeneland Race 1

$20 to win place and show on #2 Edistrudis (2-1 program odds)


Keeneland Race 9  Gr. 3 Bryan Station

$18 to win place and show on #3 Herchee (12-1)(TURF ONLY)

Aqueduct Race 10 Gr. 2 Mother Goose

$40 to win and place on #3 Tarifa (5-2)

The Japanese horses dominate in America when the BC is on the west coast.  The Japanese this year are targeting most of the races and the hardest to assess all be their horses in the 2yo races.  

YTD 7-9 -3.0 units

all plays 1* so far

Two this weekend, the first in prime time on Friday and the other featuring Coach Prime  (sorry).

Friday:

1* USC -13 1/2

USC has struggled in the Big 10 but has a great spot here.  Rutgers is off two home games including a loss to a bad UCLA team after being massacred by Wisconsin.  Now they have to travel on short rest to the west coast.  USC almost beat Penn State and did beat LSU in week one and also beat the same Wisconsin team that destroyed Rutgers.  Trojans are in need of a big win after three close losses.  

Saturday:

1* Colorado -5 1/2

Like him or not, Deion Sanders has actually built a decent defense to go with the best QB and WRs in CFB.  Colorado has covered five in a row as a result of lines that overreacted to that ugly early loss vs Nebraska.  WR Hunter, the most dynamic player in college football, was able to sit out the second half in last week's blowout win and should be close to full strength.  Cincinnati is way better than I thought they'd be but the oddsmakers haven't caught up to Colorado's turnaround.

Opinion only:
Stanford +3 (-120)

YTD: 11-7 +4.80 units

Dogs 6-3 +4.62 units

Faves 4-4 -0.82 units

Totals 1-0 +1.0 units

2* 1-0 +2.28 units

1* 10-7 +2.52 units

I moved to 3-0 in the post-season when the Dodgers singlehandedly took the game over the Game 3 total.

1* Dodgers -128

Dodgers' Flaherty has been very strong lately and the LAD bullpen towers over the Mets relievers.  Mets starter Peterson didn't get a start in either the Brewers or Phillies series meaning he hasn't been a top option.  Dodgers are pounding the ball right now, outscoring Mets 30-9 in this series.  Dodgers have the better starter, the better bullpen and the hotter bats.  On to the World Series.....

Note:  All four games in this series have gone over but I can't play the total at 7 1/2 because I can't trust the Mets to help out by scoring at all.

YTD: -$865.33

2023: +$267.92

Ascot Race 4  Gr. 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

$10 to win and place on #3 Facteur Cheval (8-1 program odds)

Keeneland Race 8

$18 to win place and show on #3 Irish Aces (9-2)(TURF ONLY)

Woodbine Race 9  Gr. 3 Ontario Derby

$45 to win and place on #4 Swift Delivery (2-1)

YTD: 6-6 -0.7 units

all plays 1* so far

I went 2-0 last week, both on Big 10 plays.  Three more this week from the Big 10, plus a play against a bad team with a bad coach.

1* South Florida -13 1/2

UAB deserves everything it's getting for hiring a guy straight out of high school coaching to run their once solid program into the ground.  Trent Dilfer has been a disaster and the program is reeling.  They've been slaughtered in their last three games with no offense and even less defense.  South Florida hasn't played well either but is back home and the four losses were to very good teams.  Revenge is overstated but may be at play here as UAB buried USF last year in Birmingham.  

1* Rutgers -4 1/2

Rutgers was dominated last week by Wisconsin but I see a bounce-back here.  Wisconsin is way better than UCLA and the Bruins are coming off a home loss to a Minnesota team that seems even with Rutgers.  Rutgers defense was excellent until the Wisconsin game and UCLA's offense is really bad.  UCLA might be the worst team in the Big 10.

1* Illinois +3 1/2

Illinois was flat in almost losing in a 50-49 shootout with weak Purdue.  Maybe they were looking ahead.  Michigan is a bad 1-5 ATS as bettors haven't adapted to the difference between last year's national champions and this year's bunch with a new coach, new QB and lots of new skill players.  Love getting the hook here.

1* Nebraska +6 1/2

Indiana is unbeaten but hasn't played a good team all year.  Hoosiers offense is very good but Nebraska's defense has been outstanding.  Both teams are off the bye.  Nebraska's schedule hasn't been that strong but the drubbing of Colorado in week two is turning out to be more impressive than was thought at the time.

Opinion only:
Wisconsin -7 (maybe a trap for Badgers with Penn State next week but they have been dominant the last two weeks)

YTD 10-7 +3.80 units

Dogs 6-3 +4.62 units

Faves 4-4 -0.82 units

2* 1-0 +2.28 units

1* 9-7 +1.52 units

I'm 2-0 so far in the post-season, both on plays on the Mets.  I think they win again tonight but the total is a stronger play:

1* Dodgers/Mets OVER 7 1/2

Walker Buehler has been lousy ever since he came back from his injury and the fact that he's starting playoff games exposes the Dodgers' lack of depth in their rotation.  The Mets are thriving in the post-season because of their hitting and have only been shut down only once in their last six games.  Ditto for the Dodgers.  Dodgers games have gone over 7 1/2 runs six of the last seven and eight of the last ten.  Mets have been over 7 1/2 seven of the last nine.  The trend for both teams is scoring and the  Dodgers go with a weak starter.  Mets' Severino has given up at least three ER in each of his last five starts.  Power hitters galore at the top of both teams' lineups.

Opinion only:
Mets +101

YTD: -$786.33

2023: +$267.92

Aqueduct Race 5 Grade 2 Sands Point

$20 to win place and show on #6 Macanga (6-1 program odds)(TURF ONLY)

Keeneland Race 8  Gr. 1 Queen Elizabeth II

$35 to win place and show on #10 Candala (9-2)(TURF ONLY)

$8 exacta box 5-10

$3 double 5-10 with 4-11

Keeneland Race 9

$15 to win place and show on #4 King Kumbalay

YTD 7-1 +5.9 units

all plays 1*

I improved to 7-1 this year and 27-13 since the start of last season on my posted NFL picks here, winning easily last week with both the Bears and Commanders.  

2* Giants +3 1/2 (-115)

First 2* play of year.  Cincinnati is the most overrated team in the league.  The Bengals defense is terrible.  They gave up 520 yards last week in the OT loss to Baltimore.  They've given up 131 points the last four games.  This is also a team that managed to lose to New England.  This is the time to jump on the Giants.  People tuned them out after their slow start but they came alive last week in beating the Seahawks by nine in Seattle.  All three NYG losses were to quality opponents.  Giants defense is very good, especially against the pass.  Make sure to get the hook as it presents great value for a Sunday night home dog.

1* Broncos +3 (-120)

Denver is another team that started slow and has gotten better than people realize.  They've won three in a row and their great D has given up only 47 points the last four games.   Chargers won their first two and everybody overreacted to the Harbaugh hype.  This is a bad line with the wrong team favored.  

Opinion only:
Colts +2 1/2 (they might actually be better with Flacco; Titans have poor offense)

YTD 4-6 -2.7 units

all plays 1*

My CFB plays have lagged my NFL plays posted here (7-1).  I'll try to get on track with two Big Ten games that don't seem like Big 10 games.

1* Iowa -2 1/2 (-120)

Washington has to travel to a very tough environment after a rugged home win over Michigan.  Huskies have struggled to score points and now face a strong Iowa defense.  Iowa's offense is still poor but much improved over last year, having put up 31 two weeks ago at Minnesota.  

1* USC +5 1/2

I still like USC despite two losses.  They let a road game slip away last week against Minnesota and now get a handful of points against a Penn State team that has played a pretty weak schedule so far.  

Opinion only:

Kentucky -13 1/2

YTD 9-7 +2.80 units

Dogs 5-3 +3.62 units

Faves 4-4 -0.82 units

2* 1-0 +2.28 units

1* 8-7 +0.52 units

I hit my only 2* of the year in my last play when the Met finished off Milwaukee.  Back to the well today:

1* Mets -101

The post-season is usually won with pitching but the Mets are just outscoring their opponents.  They've scored 19 in the three games against the Phillies and have 34 runs in their six post-season games.  Great spot tonight as Jose Quintana has been outstanding.  His season ERA is only 3.75 but that's because of a terrible first half.  He's been under 3.00 the second half and is on a pitching tear right now.   Quintana has given up ONLY 3 ER HIS LAST SEVEN STARTS.  That's 3 earned runs in 42 innings.  Ranger Suarez hasn't pitched since September 27 (he was shelled) and has a 5.74 ERA his last seven starts.  Weirdo angle: it is uncanny but over the last decade the team that knocked out the Brewers generally goes to the World Series.  Philly shouldn't be favored here.