Griswold1

@FRESH1014

 If you check my NFL record above, it's not too bad

I am adding one other point to my analysis.

Kansas City has actually been OUTGAINED ON THE SEASON!  That's unheard of for a team in conference final.  The only other team in the 14 team playoff field outgained on the season was Minnesota.  We saw what happened to them.

NFL YTD 15-9 +5.6 units

2* 3-2 +1.5 units

1* 12-7 +4.1 units

I pushed last week on the Eagles who had a lot more trouble with the Rams than I suspected.  I like the Eagles to win this weekend but 6 is just too many points.  That leaves the AFC game where the Chiefs are chasing history trying to join Green Bay as the only NFL franchise to win three consecutive championships.

1* Bills +1 1/2

KC is sitting on a loss.  They were very fortunate to beat a so-so Texans team last week.  In fact, both teams were outgained and outplayed last week and the Ravens might be in the title game were it not for Andrews' butterfingers.  I normally prefer the best defense in the post-season and that's KC but the offense is just anemic and is non-existent beyond Mahomes and Kelce.  Buffalo and Josh Allen are far superior offensively and the Bills narrow win over an outstanding Ravens team looks better than KC's win over Houston.  Maybe Taylor Swift's magic has worn off now that Trump is in the White House.

(The problem with my pick is that when you look at the big three factors in-post season, KC wins.  They have the coaching edge, the better defense and the QBs are a wash.  But the counter to that is the Chiefs have been winning rather unimpressively all year and as Minnesota demonstrated earlier, that eventually catches up to you.)  Value on the dog.

NFL YTD 15-9 +5.6 units

2* 3-2 +1.5 units

1* 12-7 +4.1 units

I went 1-1 last week but the win was on a 2* play on the Rams who exposed the Vikings.  Don't fall in love with the Rams:

2* Eagles -6

The Eagles can win the Super Bowl.  They are the most complete  team in the final eight.  The running game is outstanding and the defense is tremendous right now.   I had a big play on the Rams last week but that was mostly a play against a Vikings team that was demolished by Detroit a week earlier and won close games in which they were outgained all season.  The Rams now have to travel on a short week filled with disruptions because their home city is burning down.  The Eagles are home again.  Philadelphia is better on both sides of the ball.

Opinion only:

Lions -9 1/2 (I'd make this a full play but am concerned with the distractions created by both coordinators job hunting)

Eagles To Win Super Bowl +415

Since I'm getting a lot of gas for these picks, I'll point out some historic trends.  (I focus much more in fundamentals but when trends back your fundamental pick, it adds to the case.)

On my 2* pick, teams that played the Lions the previous week are 7-17 ATS.  This precise scenario played out this year when Minnesota lost SU to the Rams the week after playing Detroit.  Also, wild card favorites that didn't make the playoffs the prior year are 12-29 AT, a situation that covers the Vikings, although the way the line is moving they might not be favored by game time.

As for GB, a solid angle the last few years is to play them when they are a dog.  LaFleur is 24-12 ATS as a dog and 5-1 ATS when a dog by more than 3.   I'm not necessarily arguing GB wins.  But I think the talent on the two teams is very close and 4 1/2 is a lot of points in a tight matchup.

On the Broncos opinion, the number are against me as big wildcard faves have a spectacular record.  And I don't like rookie QBs in the playoffs.  I may not pull the trigger and might leave it as an "opinion."  

The Rams pick is my strongest of the season and I was tempted to up my wager and make it a 3* but I'll stand pat where I am 

NFL YTD 14-8 +4.7 units

2* 2-2 -0.5 units

1* 12-6 +5.2 units

I improved to 14-8 on the season with a 2-1 record in the final weekend.  One of my keys in the post-season is to ignore home field advantage as it is, in my opinion, becoming irrelevant.  The playoffs are also where teams with impressive but misleading SU records get exposed. So.....

Sunday:

1* Packers +4 1/2

Green Bay is better than its record.  Five of its six losses came in the brutal NFC North.  Had GB been in the East like Philly, its record might be the same as the Eagles.  The Packers defense is much improved this year with the only weakness being the two cornerbacks.  The QB matchup is close to even and both teams have tremendous RBs.  I think it is overwhelmingly likely this game goes to the wire so 4 1/2 is compelling value.

Opinion only;

Broncos +9  (will likely be upgraded to full play as I watch line movement)

Monday:

2* Rams +3 (-135)

Minnesota has escaped with close wins all season.  They have looked to me like a prime candidate for "one and done" in the post-season.  They were exposed in last week's blowout in Detroit.  The Rams have overachieved all year, have a great coach.  They won five in a row down the stretch, including a win over the Bills, before the meaningless final week loss.  They held three straight opponents to single digits in that stretch.  The Rams beat Minnesota during the regular season.  LAR started 1-4 and came back from the dead to get here.  Finally, Stafford is a lot more battle-tested in the post-season than Sam Darnold.

CFB YTD 19-16 +6.05 units

4* GOY 1-0 +4.0 units

2* 2-0 +4.0 units

1* 16-16 -1.95 units

Friday Cotton Bowl:

1* Texas +6

Texas all year dominated the CFB power ratings but suddenly is a six point dog?  That's an overreaction to Ohio State's dominant wins.  I don't know if playing in Dallas helps Texas so I won't say this is a true home dog.  But Texas dominated Clemson early and showed resilience in beating Arizona State after blowing a big lead.  If they can figure out how to play a second half, they're unstoppable.  I have no real knocks on Ohio State whose only two losses were by a combine four points but this is a lot of value in what could be a close game.

(Weird situation at Ohio State where idiot fans were ready to can Day only a couple of weeks ago.  They actually do seem care more about beating Michigan than winning the national title.  Ohio State is the best team and program in the country now even if their own fans can't see it.  Still, six points is a lot in game between two teams whose power ratings are close to even.)

NFL YTD 12-7 +3.8 units

2* 2-2 -0.5 units

1* 10-5 +4.3 units

My last pick was two weeks ago as Miami beat SF to improve my record to 12-7 on the year.  The NFL's final week is often unpredictable with motivation questions on a lot of teams.  Nonetheless, I'm diving in with three plays.

Saturday:

Bengals ML -125

Cincinnati has won four in a row and may simply be the better team right now.  Pittsburgh has lost three straight and got blown out by KC last week.  If the Ravens win earlier in the day (almost a cinch), Pittsburgh can't win the division and will be locked into a wild card spot.  They may then rest starters.

Sunday:

1* Buccaneers -13 1/2

New Orleans is awful right now and the coaching staff is lame duck with a house cleaning coming after the year.  NO has scored only 29 the last three weeks and Ratler has been really bad.  Tampa Bay has everything to play for as they win the division with a win and could get knocked out of the playoffs altogether with a loss.  Bucs have scored 112 the last three weeks and 475 on the season. No way NO can keep up.

1* Lions -2 1/2 (-115)

I know Detroit is beaten up on defense but the offense remains unstoppable.  The stakes for this game are huge.  The winner gets the #1 seed and a bye and the loser falls to 5 seed and has to play its playoff games on the road.  Both teams are 11-4-1 ATS but Campbell's spread record has been off the charts since he got to Detroit.  I normally prefer defense to offense in big games but the Lions at home are hard to oppose.

Opinion only:
Falcons -8

CFB YTD 18-15 +6.3 units

4* GOY 1-0 +4.0 units

2* 2-0 +4.0 units

1* 15-15 -1.7 units

Bowls 4-0 +8.0 units

I improved to 4-0 in the bowls with a 2* win on UConn Saturday and am +8.0 units in bowls.  Three on Monday and Tuesday, all at lines posted originally in last week's thread.  Again, I feel strongly the non-playoff bowl games are very beatable with some really weak lines.

Monday:

1* Iowa +3

While Iowa QB McNamara entered the portal, he wasn't that good and the strength of Iowa is its offensive line.  Missouri drew a rather soft SEC slate and got pummeled when they faced Alabama.  Iowa is a veteran teams whose players remember their drubbing in last year's bowl game.  The offense is better this year and they are catching points against a somewhat overrated team.

Tuesday:

1* Illinois +9 1/2

The line has moved up even more since I posted the play.  Illinois held its own in a pretty deep Big 10 this year.  South Carolina is a better team but Illinois' defense is pretty good.  The line is just too high.

1* Baylor ML -125

In this one the line keeps moving to Baylor and the ML is now closer to-170 from my original post.  Baylor is going to win.  The Bears were outstanding down the stretch after a slow start.  They won their last six SU in the Big 12 and the offense put up a lot of points.  Baylor has almost no opt-puts and the QB, who was outstanding down the stretch, is playing.  LSU was overrated all year and was only 4-8 ATS.  Kelly was able to keep most of the skill players in the bowl game but they lost BOTH starting offensive tackles.   This game could be something of a shootout and I'm going with the hot offense

With UConn's win, now 4-0 +8.0 units in bowls.

ADD:

Will write up later in a separate thread but want to grab all these lines now as they have already moved and will likely continue to do so:

Monday December 30:

1* Iowa +3

Tuesday December 31:

1* Illinois +9 1/2

1* Baylor ML -125

CFB YTD 16-15 +3.3 units

4* GOY 1-0 +4.0 units

2* 1-0 +2.0 units

1* 14-15 -2.7 units

I hit my 4* Game of the Year Monday on an easy win by UTSA.   The ACC was very weak this year and two teams that were a mess down the stretch are very vulnerable in bowls:

Thursday:

1* Toledo +7

There''s a chance I could get a better line by waiting as Pitt's excellent freshman QB is still questionable.  But Toledo comes out of a MAC that was unusually good this year and is more motivated as the game is just a short drive away in Detroit.  Pitt started out red hot but lost five in a row down the stretch as injuries took their toll.  Toledo also stunk down the stretch losing five of six but the QB is pretty good. 

Saturday:

2* UConn +3

Who is even coaching North Carolina?  Belichick is cleaning house and what's left of the coaching staff is lame duck.  The players are hardly focused on this game.  NC was putrid in a very weak ACC this year and the defense was really bad.  UConn keeps improving under Jim Mora but I admit the 8-4 SU record was against a very weak schedule.  But the key to this play is motivation.  The game is at Fenway Park which is a big deal for UConn and a pain in the ass for NC players facing obnoxious weather conditions.  Mora has had weeks to prepare for this game.  NC could have late opt-outs although the star RB may play.

Line continues to move and move.  Currently at -13.  Game is early 11am eastern start.

YTD 15-15 -0.7 units

2* 1-0 +2.0 units

1* 14-15 -2.7 units

*******The pick below was posted by me last week (at -9) in my thread on my first bowl play.  The line has moved up another point and a half and is likely to keep moving as this game screams mismatch

Monday December 23:

4* College Football Game Of The Year UTSA -9 

1) Coastal Carolina's top two QBs his the portal and the starter has never taken a snap in a CFB game.

2) 17 Coastal players have hit the portal and aren't playing.  Not only are the two QBs gone, but the team's only two all-conference defensive players bailed too.  UTSA has almost all of its starters playing.

3)  UTSA has a high powered offense and QB Own McCown is very good with 24TDs and only 9 INTs.

4)  UTSA's weakness is its pass defense but with CC playing a third stringer at QB it may not be an issue.

5) UTSA improved down the stretch while CC regressed, going 2-5 ATS its last seven

6) There's stability at UTSA with the coaching staff coming back and the majority of the team willing to play the bowl.

7) I think CC is cratering under Coach Tim Beck.  After going 9-4 in 2022 under Chadwick, Beck went 8-5 in 2023 and 6-6 this year.  And now, massive transfer portal departures.

8) UTSA played a tougher schedule in the AAC than Coastal did in the Sun Belt.

9) UTSA outgained its opponents by 63 yard while CC was -23 yards.

10)  This is actually a home game for CC on their own home field, but so what?  Nobody is going to a game in Myrtle Beach the day before Christmas Eve

Friday December 27:

1* Toledo +7

YTD 11-7 +2.8 units

2* 2-2 -0.5 units

1* 9-5 +3.3 units

Sunday:

1* Dolphins PK (-115)

San Francisco looks finished, the latest of many Super Bowl losers to crater the following year.  SF had only 11 FDs and just 191 yards against the Rams and faces a decent Miami defense.  Dolphins outgained Texans last week in a disastrous but misleading loss in which they were -3 in turnovers.

Opinions only:
Saturday:

Chiefs -3 1/2

Sunday:

Seahawks +3 (good value IF Geno plays)

ADD:

Monday Dec 23:

4* UTSA -9

(will write up later)

CFB YTD 14-15 -1.7 units

2* 1-0 +2.0 units

1* 13-15 -3.7 units

I love the lesser bowls as there is often great value with big differences in motivations because of transfer portal, coach firings, etc.  Fist one here:

Tuesday December 17:

1* Memphis -3

West Virginia fired its coach and there are reports of lots of portal departures.   They're going to phone this one in after a disappointing 6-6 season.  Memphis, on the other hand, has stability and is coming off a 10-2 SU season and has a big time offense.  Huge QB edge for Memphis with Henigan who had a 23-6 ratio.  Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS in bowl games since Silverfield became coach.   Line has already moved several points for all the reasons already stated but in this case I believe the line movement has been correct.  

YTD 10-6 +1.9 units

2* 1-2 -2.5 units

1* 9-4 +4.4 units

While everybody talks about the strength of the NFC North, the AFC West isn't far behind with three possible playoff teams.  The Broncos still seem under the radar, so.....

2* Broncos -4

Denver is playing tremendous defense and its offense has improved all year.  Broncos are 10-3 ATS and we get Sean Payton off the bye here.   Indy was unconvincing before its bye in just beating New England.  Broncos 6-0 ATS as a favorite this year.   Bo Nix, who hasn't been asked to do too much, has been the most consistent rookie QB in league.

1*  Steelers +5 1/2

Battle of Pennsylvania.   Pittsburgh has won seven of its last eight and faces an Eagles team that may be in coast mode and was hardly dominant against the Panthers last week.   Pittsburgh is 10-3 ATS.

Opinion only:
Seahawks +3

NFL YTD 10-5 +4.1 units

2* 1-1 -0.3 units

1* 9-5 +4.4 units

I won my only play last week with Dallas.  A strong one this weekend:

2* Bears +4

Chicago could have won each of its last three against its rivals in the great NFC North but butchered all at the end.  SF is seven points worse than every one of those North teams.   Teams have a tendency to play really well right after a coach is fired.   SF is badly banged up and just seemed a whipped franchise in the debacle in the Buffalo Blizzard.  It is true that in the mediocre NFC West the 49ers are still alive and are playing for something whereas the Bears are toast, but I like getting four points on a team that has played way better than its won-loss record and has been hamstrung by atrocious coach.   SU win possible.

Opinion only:
Panthers +13 (too many points)

YTD 14-14 -0.6 units

2* 1-0 +2.0 units

1*  13-14 -.2.6 units

1-1 last week but had a really bad beat on USC + 7 1/2 as Notre Dame had TWO 100 yard Pick Sixes in the final moments.

1*  Penn State +3 1/2

The only difference between these teams is Oregon is unbeaten.   Margin of victory, yardage difference, scores vs common opponents all seem about dead even.   Penn State ended the season really strong pummeling Maryland.   This is a big time value play.  I see the game as even but I get 3 1/2 and that half point is huge value.