gueeds23

Got to lean Texans, Titans on 4th road game in 5 games including the London game. Eventually takes a tole

Lose some, win some. 

See  you guys when the other basketball leagues start

I’m going to roll on this trend again. Teams down 0-2 going home for Game 3 win outright in the first half. It’s true in the NBA and was true with Phoenix/Seattle in the WNBA. Take WAS 1H ML. Price isn’t great, but it’s a lot better than comparable prices for the NBA.

I am concerned with yet another change of venue for Washington and basically throwing the game away in Game 2. 

Where has this Seattle team been the last few weeks? They played way too timid against Phoenix now they are shooting the lights out.

Seattle was the best team for the majority of the season, but they haven't looked good in a while now. Giving up doule digit leads late in game is just not a team I can trust to win a championship. Mystics have been playing the best basketball lately, though I'm worried about EDD not being 100%. They don't have quite the firepower that Phoenix has, but can put up points in bunches. They play much better defense too. 

I'm taking Wash +4.5. Don't trust Seattle with more than 2 or 3 points and even then, I don't know if they can play good enough defense against Washington. 

I could be wrong, but I'll take Washington to win the title as well, got to take the better defense. 

Going off NBA trends, teams down 0-2 going home for Game three dominate at least for the first half if not winning outright. You can still get a good price on Pho 1H compared to NBA where books have over priced this scenario.

Seems like free money to me, plus DT in an elimination game at home. 

back to back games up double digits late, then choke away the lead late. Then conveniently win by 1 less than the number both games. Looks rigged to me.

luckily I still made a profit off Sea ML and Atl, but should’ve been a cover for Seattle.

easy money Pho 1H game 3. Book it

this. How can they not double or triple team DT. It was obvious she was getting the ball. Also, how do you not attack BG since she’s been in foul trouble all game?

They just beat their arch rival in a competitive emotional hard fought game less than 48 hours ago. Then have to fly across the country for the early game after having the night cap. Seems like a recipe to lay a dud.

On the other side, Phoenix breezed by Dallas so I don’t see them having the same issue and DT mostly sat the entire 4th, plus they get the later game time.

Seems like the “smart” move. Rather face a wounded Dallas that they are better against than Minnesota who they aren’t so good against. Maybe Minnesota finally turns it on in the postseason as well.

Rest your stars and get ready for the next home game? Any other day I’d take Phoenix -12.5, but I’m starting to lean New York

Kelsey Plum would be my choice. 

Just looking at their schedules, both have beaten up on bad to ok teams. Neither has really played anyone. Calgary is being hyped as world beaters on the road in prime time as favorites by a TD. Seems like a good spot for an upset. No data to really back it up, just a feeling that Calgary is "due" for a stinker.

Vegas +12

Ogwumike is back, but I feel this is way too many points. Vegas tends to give everyone fits and plays teams close. They are 4-2 as a double digit dog. LA has played 4 games in a week including a road trip that included a beat down by Vegas. 

I think LA gets their revenge, but not large. Might even see if I can get a smaller LA spread in game depending on how it goes.

Indiana -3

Really don't like either side here. Atlanta is on game 3 of a road trip, Indiana hasn't covered in forever. I feel like Hayes is still not quite 100% since she isn't starting today. Atlanta is just Mccoughtry without her. Atlanta doesn't cover after an ATS win. I think the refs play into Atlanta's strength of getting to the line. Indiana plays Atlanta hard at home typically  I'll take a chance with Indiana. 

Will update the rest as I review them.

Minnesota -3.5

Minnesota has the last 10 straight against Dallas, plus they are clicking and on a tear right now. Vegas nearly beat them if they had any shooters since Dallas basically only defended the paint. Minnesota is a whole different beast. 

Minnesota hasn’t covered a single game this season and Washington barely has a healthy team.

However, I feel Washington will shoot the lights out with the help of a hyped out crowd due to free attendance before the Caps watch party. Those good vibes have to be worth a lot. Also, Minnesota tends to fade badly in the second half.

Take Washington plus the points. Take them SU. Maybe even a little parlay of the Washington teams since both are underdogs for a nice payout.

Based on every available stat, Connecticut is a far better team than Atlanta. Atlanta will probably keep this close, but Connecticut will make this go out of hand eventually with better shooting and rebounding. Atlanta's best win was against a Minnesota team that looks completely lost, and even then it was a buzzer beater. Can't give enough points in this one

Pick: Con -7.5

Curious why this line moved so much. I’m not seeing any Phoenix injuries. My calculated spread has this as a PK or NY -2 at most. 

I’ll take the 4 points with Phoenix