hagrin

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replied to UConn @ Villanova in College Basketball Quote Originally Posted by hagrin: I've been fade material though recently so while I like UConn, I'm sure that means Nova wins outright. Sigh. This is why I have been on the sidelines for a week. Total fade material right now. So brutal - UConn has totally packed it in for the rest of the season. View Post \| View Thread	PDiddyDD	38	February 20, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UConn @ Villanova in College Basketball I had this game circled before the line came out - I really like UConn here, players like Napier are going to fight tonight and Villanova has already packed it up for this season. Then, on the glass, UConn should be able to grab more offensive boards and get a few easy points tonight. UConn will be able to slow the pace down some and UConn is going to block about 5-8 shots tonight limiting drives to the hoop. Since Villanova doesn't shoot the 3 that well, that spells offensive doom to me. I've been fade material though recently so while I like UConn, I'm sure that means Nova wins outright. Sigh. Good luck everyone. View Post \| View Thread	PDiddyDD	38	February 20, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to SPORTSBOOK.COM - TEMPLE 300-1 ??!! in College Basketball Quote Originally Posted by VandalRevival: You must ride Temple out and wait for the Elite 8 before any good hedging can take place I figured that was the case. The problem I have with that though is that the probability of that happening is pretty slim. You would imagine that the win probabilities vs a 12, 4 and 1 seed would be something like 70, 45 and 15 (lower if they face a Kentucky). That's a < 5% chance of even reaching the Elite 8 and then at that point you need Temple to lose sooner than later and every Temple win after that destroys your earnings. Therefore, you're basically betting $100 that Temple wins exactly 3-4 games which gives you something like a <3% chance which makes the future odds worse than the probability of that occurring. Then, in the Elite 8, they will probably be playing a 2/3 seed which means to hedge properly you'll be playing a ML in the -400 range which kills it for me. And if they ever won that Elite 8 matchup your returns only get worse as you're probably facing another 1 seed. It really only makes sense the more upsets that occur in that side of the bracket in the first two rounds so the MLs to hedge are lower (or Temple is a favorite by some miracle). At 300-1 it might be a worthwhile gamble, but 100-1 isn't nearly enough unless you truly thought at 100-1 they could make the Final Four. Still not sure the math makes much sense. TL;DR - You're basically betting @ 300-1 (minus a partial ~-300/400 ML hedge) that Temple wins exactly 3 games which has a probability of ~<3% of happening especially when faced with an almost definite 1 seed and then partially hedging a huge favorite ML and hoping they lose. If they win, your hedging gets uglier and uglier and you need a lot of cash to front the hedges. View Post \| View Thread	philly 99	14	February 20, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to SPORTSBOOK.COM - TEMPLE 300-1 ??!! in College Basketball Interesting post. So, since I was intrigued by the math aspect of this, I had to work this out. Let's assume that they are a 5 seed which is what they are right now in Bracketology. Initial Bet: $100 to win $30,000 As a 5 playing a 12, you need Temple to win the first game since they will almost definitely be around a 6 point favorite (average line based on mock bracket done this week that was RT'd by vegaswatch). Therefore, if you wanted to hedge that game, you would have a nice ~6 "middle" (not really a true middle). Let's say you bet $500 on the 12 seed ATS. If Temple wins and covers: - $600 Temple wins and doesn't cover: +350 If Opponent wins: +350 and future bet finished. Round 2 would be against a 4 seed most likely and the line would probably have Temple as an underdog since they aren't a public team. Therefore, you would have to play the favorite as a ML favorite to ensure a proper hedge, but for the purposes of making the math simple, let's just make it a pick em at -110. Based on how much you're in the hole already, you bets from here on in are pretty straight chasers. Bet Amount: $770 If Temple Wins: -$1,370 If Opponent wins: +100 and the future bet is finished. In Round 3, you would almost definitely be playing a 1 seed and Temple would be a serious underdog which means that you would need to play a pretty negative ML to accurately hedge. Let's say it is a -300 ML (could be more or less if it's Kentucky or Syracuse). Bet Amount: $4,410 If Temple Wins: -$5,780 If Opponent Wins: +100 and the future bet is finished. Now, there's still 3 more rounds left where Temple could be a significant underdog meaning you would have to play a large ML to hedge properly. If that's the case, there is absolutely no way to hedge to come out ahead if they actually won 5 games if there are no upsets in the bracket and Temple is an underdog after the first real games. Now, if there are upsets and the lines are closer, then yes there is definitely an easy way to hedge. The only way I see this as being profitable is by either hitting that "middle" the first game, by not betting the Temple games the first 2 weekends and only hedging once they get to the Sweet Sixteen or Temple being a favorite in more games than expected. Now, if you skip the first two games and get lucky, you have a pretty good shot and winning at least 5-10 times your money, but I'm not sure what to think about the probability of two wins for that type of payout. Curious to see another strategy that makes this type of hedging more profitable. Good initial post though, good luck. View Post \| View Thread	philly 99	14	February 19, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Fishy Line of the Day in College Basketball Fishy Line of the Day Tracking: Underdog: 6-3 Favorite: 3-6 Line Move Direction: 5-3 with 1 game no real move either way Road Dog: 4-3 Home Dog: 2-0 Unranked vs Ranked: 3-1 # Games Within +/- 3 Points of Line: 1 out of 9 Recap: Disastrous. Eye test told me this would be an Indiana blowout and the system failed miserably. Really don't have much to say about this one, starting to think this isn't anything better than a coin flip system that got off to a hot start. 0 for last 3 now with 2 picks that I knew better than to select. Ugh. What makes this even more discouraging is the line dipped in any book that had 6.5 to 6 45 minutes prior to tip so I was sure the system predicted the continued line movement while getting the best number for a winner. Blaaaaaah. Commence insults. View Post \| View Thread	hagrin	60	February 10, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to how far will murray state drop in top 25 in College Basketball I was just tweeting Glockner. They have 3 non-D1 wins. So take away 3 wins. They have a SOS in the 300s which will maybe get slightly better, but no better than like 280s. They will have 1 top 50 win with St Marys pending. Their RPI will be in the 50s/60s. KenPom will probably have them in the 80s. I'm serious, if they ever lost to SMU and then lost in their tourney, I don't see how they get in with their numbers. The SOS of ~300 with a terrible RPI, terrible KenPom would sink them. They either need to beat SMU or win their conference tourney I think. View Post \| View Thread	RATPACK9921	9	February 09, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to *Game Of The Month For Me * * * Tennessee State +10.5 in College Basketball** Haha, did anyone just see that? That was great, they called a flagrant on a total flop AFTER looking at the replay. That's just ... wow. View Post \| View Thread	Loo-Loo	20	February 09, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to *Game Of The Month For Me * * * Tennessee State +10.5 in College Basketball** Tenn St. just played the half of their lives, basically shot 50% from the field ... and they are down 7. Murray St. has no size and they are destroying them on the boards which is a terrible sign. If that continues in the second half, Murray St. "races" away. View Post \| View Thread	Loo-Loo	20	February 09, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Fishy Line of the Day in College Basketball Ugh, want to buy - edit button. Repost - This is 100% correct. I'll pull the curtain back for a second - my ultimate goal with this was to see if I could predict underdog winners which is why that stat is conspicuously missing from my recap stats. :) 2/9/2012 - Illinois @ Indiana Opening Line: -8 in a lot of places. Current Line: As low as -6 in some places, but you can get -7 still in some books. Using -7 to grade this play. Why Fishy?: Disclosure - I had Indiana circled as a play before I ran the sims, disappointed by the sim result sigh. KenPom predicted 11, I predicted 12(!), slight consensus on Indiana and huge move downwards already. However, one thing to note, this did not fit the Luck flag that I added what seems like a week ago. The system flag this because Indiana Now, since this didn't match the Luck flag, please please please don't tail, I'm posting this only for informational and tracking purposes. I don't want anyone to lose money especially with my "eye test" telling me Indiana needs this one to go above .500 in the conference this year and should blow Illinois out and I have every intention of probably wagering money on Indiana. View Post \| View Thread	hagrin	60	February 09, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Fishy Line of the Day in College Basketball Quote Originally Posted by WizrduvOdz: His system is basically favoring the dogs. IMHO, of course. This is 100% correct. I'll pull the curtain back for a second - my ultimate goal with this was to see if I could predict underdog winners which is why that stat is conspicuously missing from my recap stats. :) 2/9/2012 - Illinois @ Indiana Opening Line: -8 in a lot of places. Current Line: As low as -6 in some places, but you can get -7 still in some books. Using -7 to grade this play. Why Fishy?: Disclosure - I had Indiana circled as a play before I ran the sims, disappointed by the sim result sigh. KenPom predicted 11, I predicted 12(!), slight consensus on Indiana and huge move downwards already. However, one thing to note, this did not fit the Luck flag that I added what seems like a week ago. The system flag this because Indiana Now, since this didn't match the Luck flag, please please please don't tail, I'm posting this only for informational and tracking purposes. I don't want anyone to lose money especially with my "eye test" telling me Indiana needs this one to go above .500 in the conference this year and should blow Illinois out and I have every intention of probably wagering money on Indiana. View Post \| View Thread	hagrin	60	February 09, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UNC v Duke - largest wager of the year for me so far in College Basketball Quote Originally Posted by hagrin: Everyone on Covers is on UNC by double digits. Line has moved down 1 point. Let the bloodbath commence. (If I had to bet, as a Duke fan, I'd pick UNC, but there's no way I'm taking UNC with such a huge consensus and the line continues to move the other way. And yes, Duke is terrible, it's been a rough year as a fan sigh.) LOL, the bloodbath. It's nights like these why I come to Covers and realize that while I'm not sharp at least I'm no square. View Post \| View Thread	1919	34	February 09, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Is Roy Williams the worst coach in college basketball? in College Basketball Worst coach of a major program? Easy. Bruce Weber. Done way less with more than anyone. And he's a crybaby to boot (see - Jon Scheyer recruitment whom his brother coached in HS). View Post \| View Thread	TRAIN69	50	February 09, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Fishy Line of the Day in College Basketball Fishy Line of the Day Tracking: Underdog: 6-2 Favorite: 2-6 Line Move Direction: 5-2 with 1 game no real move either way Road Dog: 4-2 Home Dog: 2-0 Unranked vs Ranked: 3-0 # Games Within +/- 3 Points of Line: 1 out of 8 Recap: Tonight is a perfect example of why I'm not a tout, I'm just a guy with a computer and people need to remember that before tailing blindly. Depending on what number you got, you either won, lost or pushed with Hofstra, but I marked it as a loss since I posted at 9.5 and they lost by the hook. This was a tie game with about 6 minutes left, 4 points with 2 minutes left and GMU just closed out well. Still feel like the system picked properly here. I think the system failed UMass and St Bonnies. In another thread, a user JFen alerted me to a tempo play style with UMass at home and when I started looking at the numbers it was clearly obvious that when they play at home vs good competition that makes them play slightly slower, they actually play better than the frenetic pace of their losses. They play closer to 60s, lower 70s in their best wins and they play faster in their losses (tempo stats by KenPom). My system doesn't account for tempo at all and that seems to be where the failure is. I'm not sure how to account for this and how to remove these plays from getting flagged incorrectly so I am open to advice. Again, please don't tail blindly, I'm just a guy with a computer and obviously, I'm still working out the kinks. View Post \| View Thread	hagrin	60	February 08, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Fishy Line of the Day in College Basketball Quote Originally Posted by boomersooner13: These lines don't move off of betting percentages, they move off of money You obviously didn't comprehend a single word I have written - I've pretty much spelled out this point in 40+ posts, but thanks for playing. The fact you even mention buying points shows you're beyond help anyways and you should probably go read POY threads. View Post \| View Thread	hagrin	60	February 08, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Memphis vs Umass in College Basketball Quote Originally Posted by JFen31: If you've seen UMASS play this season at the Mullins Center, you would know that the opponent's defensive stats aren't really all that significant. Saint Louis is one of the 20 best defenses in the country and was forced into a blistering pace from the opening tip. Until you actually see them play, it's difficult to appreciate just how frenetic UMASS actually is. This is actually great insight, well done. One thing I will say, for those with KenPom subscriptions, look at UMass' GamePlan page. You'll see that they actually play better and beat better competition when they play slightly slower tempo (more in the 70s than 80s). The St. Louis game was a 74, St. Joes was a 66, Davidson was a 71 and then if you look at their losses, they tend to trend higher. My system actually picked the Bonnies, but it's this insight that actually makes more sense. Well done JFen. View Post \| View Thread	utfootball4	18	February 08, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Fishy Line of the Day in College Basketball Adding: 2/8/2012 - Hofstra @ George Mason Opening Line: -11 Current Line: Some books down to -9, but you can still get 9.5 some places. Why Fishy?: Yikes, because I had George Mason circled before I ran my sims as a play since I live close to Hofstra, know the program well and I know that the players have sort of checked out already. But, a system is a system so here goes ... High consensus on GMU, line movement away from that consensus in a big way, and yet another high luck vs extremely low luck team where the line moves towards low luck. KenPom has this as an 11 point line, I actually had a 13 (see above, I manually adjusted their rating before sims for my belief about their program). As a side note, this high luck vs low luck thing isn't something I thought would be a flag, but it definitely seems to indicate that "someone" is using predicted winning % vs actual to bet lines somewhere - it seems to happen in almost every game where I see a weird line move. I'll be extra curious in the result of this one because my "eye" test and inside knowledge says Hofstra doesn't come close to covering (lose by 15 or so), but the system says otherwise. Let's see who knows more. Good luck to everyone as always. View Post \| View Thread	hagrin	60	February 08, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Fishy Line of the Day in College Basketball 2/8/2012 - St. Bonaventure @ UMass Opening Line: -4.5 in several spots. Current Line: -3.5 Why Fishy?: Wow, after a few days of borderline flagged plays, this one comes up big time. Huge consensus on UMass and the line continues to tank. I have this as a 4.5 point game, KenPom has 4 and even the Luck flag hits - UMass with a very high luck score and the Bonnies with a bottom third luck score. I personally don't know much about these teams (A-10 basketball isn't my favorite) so I can't offer a single ounce of human insight, my system values are all the defaults. Good luck, I think there might be some more plays, but this one came up first and "strongest". View Post \| View Thread	hagrin	60	February 08, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to UNC v Duke - largest wager of the year for me so far in College Basketball Everyone on Covers is on UNC by double digits. Line has moved down 1 point. Let the bloodbath commence. (If I had to bet, as a Duke fan, I'd pick UNC, but there's no way I'm taking UNC with such a huge consensus and the line continues to move the other way. And yes, Duke is terrible, it's been a rough year as a fan sigh.) View Post \| View Thread	1919	34	February 08, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to vegas knows something in College Basketball Best thread of the night by far. View Post \| View Thread	Packersfan315	123	February 08, 2012 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Fishy Line of the Day in College Basketball Fishy Line of the Day Tracking: Underdog: 6-0 Favorite: 0-6 Line Move Direction: 5-0 with 1 game no real move either way Road Dog: 4-0 Home Dog: 2-0 Unranked vs Ranked: 3-0 # Games Within +/- 3 Points of Line: 0 out of 6 Recap: So, the thing here that I'm modifying for going forward is that plays should remain strong plays if there is a huge consensus and there is no real line movement - i.e. no line movement is evidence in of itself. I think I'm going to set the threshold at 70% consensus for no line movement as being a game to analyze further and put in on the list of potentials. As for the game itself, Creighton is the 2nd best team in MVC, but Evansville has such a high EM that they are third in the MVC and much better than their record would indicate. Evansville is also an ATS monster and I do have a +.5 modifier for them as being a non-public team. Best of luck to everyone, we're definitely getting somewhere with this I think. View Post \| View Thread	hagrin	60	February 07, 2012 View Post \| View Thread

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