HipB23

-Russell Wilson tonight as the Giants chase him around the backfield. 

Giants lead the league in sacks and even though Russ looked good against the awful Jets last week, I think the Giants get after him tonight and cause him to make mistakes.  His receivers bailed him out on a few throws last week and the Steelers off line is mediocre at best...middle of the pack in sacks allowed, QB knockdowns, QB hurries.  

Steelers lost to old man Flacco and the Colts, then lost to the shit Cowgirls, then beat up on 2 awful teams in the Jets & Raiders. 

Giants got crushed at home to a surging Eagles team & a dangerous Cincy team while beating Sea/Cle in away games w/a narrow Dallas loss at home too. Vs Philly, they let up 28 points but still had 5 Sacks, 8 TFL, and 7 QB hits. That was on a much more athletic J. Hurts...now they get old man Wilson.

I doubt we see a huge scoring game here so give me the MNF dawg getting at least 6!  Giants are in last place and not playing for much so they have nothing to lose.  Steelers been surprising everyone and may have a let down game prior to bye week.  Hopefully get a Giants surprise W tonight or at least keep it close in a low scoring game!

Normally I'd go with the Under after seeing all these Overs this week but I think Buffy is due for some offense(30 points combined last 2 games, avg 37 1st 3 games).  Josh Allen is very good in prime time games. Jets have faced Tenny(17 points scored), Pats(3 points scored), and Denver(10 points scored) last 3 of 4.  Shit offenses.  Vs Minny at home last week they gave up 23.  Now they have to face 1 of the best QB's in the league who normally plays great in prime time.  Bulls dropped last 2 to good teams in Balty and Hou.  Rogers is old and while everyone is on the new coach 'bump', I think Buffy gets this done.  Buffalo owns this division last few years.  6 TD's should be easy to hit in this one between these 2 teams.  Give me...

Over 41.5

Josh Allen TD

Nice win to end week 1! Love to see Rodgers sucking. 

...team balls out!

With CMC out, lot more bets going to be made on Jets. I'm going other way...get this line to -3!

1 team is being dominated and everyone thinks that the Mavs will 'definitely' win 1 game.  They won't lose 4 in a row, 2 at home!!  The C's would rather win at home!  Sweeps in the Finals are rare!!  The NBA/networks/stadiums/businesses all want another game so it will go 5!!!  All things heard this week.  

The C's have absolutely dominated the Mavs in these Finals.  They are on a mission and I don't think they let up.  Unless something goes very wrong for the C's, I think they close it out tonight.  Luka should have a better game after that cry baby performance the other night.  He was throwing his body into dudes, pushing people on offense with out-stretched arms.  He really had like 8 fouls last game.  If he can put together a classic Luka game with Kyrie having another 30, maybe they get the win. BUT...

I think Tatum and someone else like Horford end it tonight.  Horford goes out a champ and has an excellent game shooting 3+ 3's and excellent D.  Tatum has an easy double double and almost gets a trip/dub to win the Championship and secure the MVP.  Brown plays well but not as dominant as Dallas does something to slow him down. White/Holiday focus more on D tonight and have avg scoring performances.  Tatum has been playing excellent these playoffs and hasn't needed to be the superstar, but tonight he will show everyone what's up.  Let's go Celtics!  

"insert 'told you so' meme of Oprah"

C's are the better team.  They have more effective players than Dallas does.  And what the fuck last night.  The refs were letting Dallas get away with so much!  Luka was literally...blatantly... throwing defenders away from him with extended arms.  He hooked Tatum and then complained about the foul. That last foul he was skating sideways into Brown. Dallas was allowed to play very rough and Luka was out of control most of the game.  Can't believe I'm seeing people complain that he fouled out.  That last foul was really like his 8th personal!  He got away with a lot.  

Looking like a C's sweep.  LIke I said above, even if Kyrie had a huge game(which he did), the C's have too many players to offset his great performance(See 30+ point games from Tatum/Brown).  C's should be able to end this on Friday night.  Get a little lead and it's season over.  There is always that possibility of the C's coming in less focused, but they've been here before and know they have to end it asap.  Don't give Dallas any momentum.  Really excited for a Fri night game 4.  Seems like a Dallas 1st half play would be smart as teams facing elimination in playoffs usually have a great 1st half in an elimination game.  Hoping Tatum goes bonkers to leap frog Brown as the MVP.  Secretly hoping for a Dallas win so Boston can win Game 5 at home which would be crazy awesome...but I'll take the championship anyway we can get it!

4 games in round 1 vs. Mia and 2 huge games vs Dallas in Finals.  Sports media were saying the whole week or two leading up to Finals that C's can't win without him.  So he's still considered a star in my view.  

Team balls out!  Doubt they push Porzingis to play in this game unless the INJ is far less serious than they are saying.  Seeing videos of him walking around no problem, no special brace or strap on his leg/ankle.  BUT, I would think with the 2-0 lead and assuming they lose 1 in Dallas, they rest him this game and get ready for wins in games 4 & 5.  Winning in Boston would be awesome for us fans also.  Yes, I'm pretty confident in the C's winning this series.  They haven't lost 4 games in a 7 game span all season and they won many times without KP including rounds 2 and 3 of the playoffs.  So if Porzingis is ruled out and there is a small line change because of that, I would hammer the C's.  Everyone thinks this is the game the Mavs will win(odds are they will), they're back at home, Kyrie has to wake up, blah blah...but keep it simple stupid...The C's are the better team here.  They have a far better offense and defense.  They held the Mavs under 100 in both games so far.  Tatum/Brown/White haven't had big scoring games yet.  So sure, Kyrie may start finding a way to score, but his D sucks and the C's could easily have a player offset his points with a performance of their own.  If C's are hitting shots and playing good D like 1st 2 games, watch out Mavs backers.  The C's have been so close these past few seasons and I think Tatum understands that he doesn't have to be the leading point scorer as long as he's filling up the stat sheet with rebounds/assists(avg 10/8.5 this series so far).  So while the narrative is  most likely a win for the Mavs, there is value in taking the C's tonight getting points(DraftKings already moved to 3!) or even ML.  Mavs probably still win, but I don't think it's going to be an easy win. This is basketball and anything can happen. Go C's!

Tatum Trip/Dub - 15-1

Luka Trip/Dub - +230

C's 1st half team total over 54.5

Over 214.5

Waiting to take C's + points as I think it will go up another point or so after the Porzingis out announcement.

I like both Tatum and Brown to go 20+ tonight also.  

Pending - C's NBA Champ

lot of people talking about teams down 2-0 in finals usually win game 3...Dallas at home will be the deciding factor for this game...Kyrie will eventually get going..blah blah.

Boston has pretty much dominated the 1st two games...and that's without Tatum or Brown having huge games.  The C's defense is what is surprising so far in this series.  Kyrie having trouble getting anything easy and hasn't hit a 3 pointer yet.  IF the Boston D keeps that up, and then the Boston stars get some big point totals, this could be a sweep.  I expect Dallas to also get a win, but they need to really step it up and Boston would have to have a bad game.  If Boston plays the way they have and the stars get it going, not sure how Dallas can get back in this. 

Love that 11 straight wins against Kyrie stat.  

I think a lot of people are going to assume Dallas plays much better game 2 and keeps it close but that may not be the case.  NO C's player had more than 22 points and the biggest thing to be aware of is Tatum having a very avg game with a stat line of 16/11/5 with SIX turnovers!!! The C's dominated that game and Tatum didn't have to do much. Sure, Kyrie probably has a better game shooting and gets 20 give or take a few points.  But Luka isn't going to play much better after putting up 30/10/1.  Yes, we all know he'll get more assists but Dallas just doesn't seem to have the offensive firepower the C's have.  Boston is rolling right now and I don't see any reason why that would change on Sunday.  I think Game 2 will be very similar to Game 1 and the C's cruise to an easy win.  Dallas will have to regroup back at home for Games 3 & 4 where I think they win game 3 playing with a sense of urgency.  If you like the C's, grab them early because the line most likely goes up by game time.  I can see Game 2 being a Tatum game and he just goes off with 30/12/8 getting close to a trip/dub.  

Hit the C's for Champ at -150 during Indy series so I have that pending.  I also threw down on Tatum MVP for finals.  This is his chance to prove himself.  He's worked his whole life to get to this series, he's lost a finals already so he has experience too.  

Everything I'm absorbing(ESPN, Covers, etc) seem to be talking about a Mavs upset which is definitely possible.  All the hype for this series is around Luka/Kyrie and how they can make it happen but this C's team has been so dominant this year.  And I keep seeing people talk about Porzingis not being 100% healthy but he's had PLENTY of time to heal and be ready for these finals.  He's not even on the inj report any more.  Luka is still on the inj report and while I assume he's fine to play every game, a lingering injury that could be aggravated is something to consider. 

Dallas is 12-5 in the post season.  Took 6 games to win 1st round against LAC, 6 games against OKC, then 5 games vs a Minny team that seemed to just run out of juice/effort.  This C's team is far better than any of those teams.  Sure, the 12-2 record for the C's was against some banged up teams missing star players, but this team dominated throughout the regular season.  I saw some stat where they never lost 4 games in a 7 game span all season.  They come in fully healthy to this series with home court advantage and the best offense that Dallas has seen yet.  If C's can hit the 3 ball at their avg clip, tough to see Dallas keeping up.  Sure, Luka is 1 of the best players in the game and Kyrie can have amazing games...but there are 6 players on the C's that could be the reason they win any particular game. 

If Defense wins championships, then the C's should have this series.  Probably the best defensive back court in the game with White/Holiday and you got Brown/Tatum/Porz right behind them ready for whatever is thrown at them.  

Plus, who isn't routing for old man Horford to retire from NBA as a champion!?! He came back for this exact reason.  

I like the C's tonight to start off with a bang.  Garden will be rocking and the C's have been waiting for this moment.  

C's team total over 111

SGP - C's ML, Tatum 20+, Brown 20+(close to even)

SGP - Porzingis & White over 2 3's (close to even)

Series...

C's -150

Tatum MVP +104(boost on FanDuel)

Of course Kornet gets injured in 1st 1/4 after snagging 2 Rebounds. Oh well, on to the next game!

Old man Horford(who I love obvy as a C's fan) played 40 mins 2 nights ago.  During the regular season, he would most likely get a night off to recover.  This is the ECFs though so he'll be starting again most likely.  But they need to preserve his body so I think we'll see some more Luke Kornet tonight.  I like his points total over 4.5(hit this last game). But I found a nice offer with DraftKings of Kornet points + rebounds Over 7.5 -130.  

Dude has avg P+R...

9+ reg season

10+ L10

7+ vs Indy

9+ at home

He's hit this over 3 of his last 5 too.  Add in some extra playing time to give Horford a little less wear & tear and this should be an easy hit. Plus, he's a pretty good free throw shooter at 90%+ during regular season.  

C's team total over 116 looks good.  Maybe C's D steps up and Indy has a bad night shooting...could get an under but I think C's are good for almost 120 tonight. 

Sam Hauser over 5.5( + money on DraftKings, 4.5 even money on FanDuel).

Dude avg 9 during reg season, 9 at home, 11+ L10, and 11+ vs Indy. He had a rough series against Cle for some reason and why not start this series off with a bang!?  2 3's is all we need to hit this.  Indy D is the 3rd worst in these playoffs and that includes a series against a Knicks team that were all on crutches.  They couldn't even stop Brunson when everyone knew he was the only guy they really needed to stop. The C's are going to come out firing.  

I love C's team total over 116.  They were hitting 120+ consistently at home for a while earlier this season.

I think Indy will throw Nesmith on Tatum which leaves Nembhard on Brown.  Brown will take adv and get to the rim a lot.  Brown 20+ points looks easy. 

If you can find Kornet over 3.5(-140 on FanDuel right now) I'd use that in a parlay as that should easily hit. 

I also like White/Holiday to shut down Haliburton game 1 so Haliburton UNDER points is another play for a parlay. 

I loaded up on C's to win Finals at -150 as I think this is probably lowest odds we'll see going forward.  

Hit Hauser on Wed, hit Reid on Thu...who will be the pick tonight!?!

10+ points tonight.  Dude avgs...

13.5 on the season

15.3 L10

12 Vs Denver

13.8 at home

and has hit this 3 out of 5 times this series.  Denver looking to stop Jordan Jr and Towns so this is the guy tonight.  Hit it!

Gonna take a miracle with Cle shutting down and getting ready to go on vacay.  Maybe they get hot from 3 and keep it close?  

G/L either way but I think this is over by 1/2 time. 

Fanduel now listing -4.5 at -102. 

Draftkings now -3.5 at -120