HockeyNight11

This is a must win on both sides for different reasons. Skubs has only allowed 5 hits to Cleveland all year I’d expect his best today again. Bibee also coming off a strong start and good over his career in Detroit. A famous BC under looks good here

@DrGame

Anybody is going to be fine throwing the ball to that group of receivers. I like Sayin really have zero reservations about him. The run game is a concerning though. It’s a different team than 2024 there is no a debate there. 

2024 first 3 games didn’t have a Texas on it but they were +372 ypg compared to 129 ypg this year so not really sure what to make of that always start slow statement. Texas is a very good defensive team. Arch was a train wreck in week 1 there’s no other way to say it & just put up an 11/25 game vs UTEP. At this point I’m not even sure he’s a major D1 caliber QB. 

@D-Town

@Bixby17

  Trying but had nothing available last week

Early bird plays for me:

Iowa -2.5 

Indiana -4

USC/MSU over 55.5 

As long as the books offer me something we will find a prop!!

@Last2thirst

 Likewise! GL this week 

Love both my friend. However will be on the OVER 55.5 USC/MSU instead. Complete track meet imo and that number is at least a TD low.

Alright a little more time this week so let's put out our first B1G ratings now that we have 3 weeks of data and *most* teams have played at least one competent team this season. SOS is really important at this point because the numbers can be heavily skewed if a team has beat up on 3 cupcakes to date as this is a yardage differential formula. My goal is to simplify it as much as possible - team A out gains team B then chances are there more opportunities to score points and less for the opposition. Obviously in sports not all things are equal. Home field, injuries, penalties, TURNOVERS, competition gaps, etc are all VERY important. This is just a starting point for breaking down games at the start of a week. 

Can't break out of this win one, lose one trend so hopefully conference play gets things going

Game picks: 8-8
Props: 1-0 

FWIW i agree with damn near none of these positions but numbers are numbers at this stage of the game

Week 4 (SOS to date is in parentheses) 
1. Nebraska (100)
2. USC +3.9 (109)
3. Indiana +7.3 (117)
4. Washington +8.8 (128)
5. Oregon +9.3 (99)
6. Michigan +16.4 (30)
7. Penn St +16.9 (134)
8. Iowa +20.6 (80)
9. Minnesota +20.9 (93)
10. OSU +22.6 (49)
11. Illinois +30 (101)
12. Purdue +30.5 (54)
13. Wisconsin +30.7 (15)
14. Maryland +32.4 (131)
15. MSU +35.6 (118)
16. Rutgers +37.4 (121)
17. UCLA +51 (52)
18. NW +52.8 (10)

These will obviously change pretty significantly in the next few weeks as we begin H2H games but theres definitely some red flags for some teams who you typically see dominate the box scores. I'll use the obvious one with OSU at #10. Last year the national champion buckeyes were +175 net yards per game which is so dominant over 16 games when you consider a schedule of Oregon x 2, Penn St, Michigan, Indiana, Texas, Tennessee, ND. This year through 3 games down to +129 ypg. Still good but against a Ohio, Texas, Grambling State schedule. Initially seemed fine given Texas in there....but who is texas at this point? They have a serious issue at QB. Point is... in week 4 these numbers shouldn't be the gospel but might offer some insight into over value vs under value based on name that will offer the exact opposite later in the season as we get more results. Will take a look at some lines and go from there... GL this week! 

Prop: Kayshon Boutte (NE) over 42.5 yards

Bengals -3.5 

teaser: Cards -1/Browns +18.5

Texas St +17.5 2u

Texas St +17.5 2u

evening:

Ole Miss/Ark over 60.5

Vanderbilt +3.5

Clemson -145 

thought this was a 3:30 game woops

also on 

Minnesota -2.5 

UT +4.5

This card is terrible all my plays will be in the afternoon and evening today 

@CanadaCup

 It sure feels bad this morning! 

2-1 -0.36u

just have to laugh sometimes

2-0 early 

SNF:

Ravens ML -118 2u

Cleveland +5.5 -115 1u

Teaser: Falcons +7/Cards -1 -120

GL

3-2 -0.3u 

Klein out hurt. Nothing from the O tonight.