Hovanes

Value

The information below will be provided by different resource outlets along with my opinion / picks with value.

Thursday, October 20 at 8:25 PM ET:
Chicago Bears@ Green Bay Packers

The Breakdown: As if Thursday games were not already ugly enough, this injury-riddled matchup shows up to potentially deflate the energy around what is normally a great rivalry... This line has steadily fallen after the Packers were near double-digit favorites to start the week. At +9.5 or greater, the Bears would be our Lock of the Week this week. There is still value in them at +8 though. Green Bay is exclusively down to backups at both running back and cornerback. That cannot be good. Meanwhile, though it has not translated into wins, the Bears are markedly improved with Brian Hoyer and Jordan Howard leading the way offensively. Brian Hoyer's team has lost by more than a touchdown just eight times in his last 31 starts (17 losses). He is adequate enough to keep games competitive, especially against a team as beat up as the Packers. I also always look at the turnover margin where Bears are -1 and Packers are at -3

Prediction Bears + 8 $330-$300
Chicago Bears, 21 @ Green Bay Packers, 27

Sunday, October 23 at 1:00 PM ET:
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions

The Breakdown: Washington dominated in a 27-20 home win over Philadelphia last week, despite entering the game as three point underdogs. The game was not even that close as Washington out-gained the Eagles by 254 yards and 2.4 yards-per-play.

This week, the Redskins are going on the road, yet they face what we currently grade as the 27th ranked team according to our NFL Power Rankings (Washington is a Top Ten team overall by that metric). On the year, the Redskins are out-gaining opponents by 0.4 yards-per-play, while Detroit is out-gained by 0.7 yards-per-play. Washington has played a tougher schedule than the Lions. Washington ranks as better than Detroit in all strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency metrics, except for run defense where both teams are Bottom Three in the NFL, but the Redskins are just slightly worse (look for the Redskins to exploit that better than the banged-up, pass-happy Lions as well). Last week, Washington took on the fifth worst run defense and shredded that squad for 230 yards on 33 carries (7.0 yards-per-carry). Matching that is unlikely, yet anything close to that should lead to another Washington win.

Prediction Redskins +1 $550-500
Washington Redskins, 28 @ Detroit Lions, 25

Sunday, October 23 at 1:00 PM ET:
New Orleans Saints@ Kansas City Chiefs

The Breakdown: This game i have a strong opinion on the total (which has gone UP this week despite the strong public stance on the UNDER). The Steelers (with Ben Roethlisberger) and Chargers are both pass-happy teams with explosive playmakers and Top Ten pass offenses. In two games against those teams, the Chiefs played in games that averaged 58.5 points. New Orleans is pass happy (the pass-happiest in the league) with a Top Five pass offense. Also, six of the last eight Saints games have topped 50 points. And for those wondering, opposing teams have averaged 28 points-per-game at home against the Saints in ten New Orleans road games since the start of last season. If New Orleans can keep this remotely competitive, the OVER looks easy.

Boxscore: Over 50 $880-800
New Orleans Saints, 25 @ Kansas City Chiefs, 31

Taking Under 45.5 Det/Den game 8 Units 

GL Krazz

The over you may want to look at is IND and Pitt 

Car -3             8 Units * took this on Thursday morning 

With you .. I got 44 

That did not work .. 

Pick

Matchup	Line
CAR	NO @ CAR
Under	DEN @ DET
Over	PIT @ STL
DEN	DEN @ DET
Over	IND @ TEN
CHI	CHI @ SEA
Over	NO @ CAR
SF	SF @ ARI
Over	SD @ MIN
Over	ATL @ DAL
MIA	BUF @ MIA
Over	WAS @ NYG
MIN	SD @ MIN

What I am going to do is track my picks here ..  I will have leans on Wednesday and play will be in 1 hr before each game.  Money management is the key and not to play more than 4-6 games per week. 

Over 44 is the play .. GL 

Thanks Composure ! .. I will have my final pick and score prediction on Sunday morning.  

Thanks Mrfixers ..  These are all valuable stats and information. .

New England Pass Offense vs. Seattle Pass Defense:
Tom Brady is one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. 2014 may have been one of his most compelling and best. Despite lacking a running game, playing with oft-injured weapons and facing a division in which the three other teams each have an elite pass rush, Brady still completed 64.3% of his passes for 8.1 yards-per-attempt, 39 TDs and 11 interceptions. Since Week Four (and removing an irrelevant Week 17), those numbers are 66.2%, 7.9 yards-per-attempt, 35 TDs and nine interceptions.

Clearly, Seattle's opponent is not as loaded in the passing game as it was in last year's Super Bowl when Denver was coming off one of the best passing seasons ever. This pass defense also is not quite as dominant this year as last season, ultimately leading to a advantage to NE  in this analysis. Seattle finished first in yards-per-pass allowed and interceptions-per-pass-play, while ranking sixth in pass rush in the 2013 regular season. This year, Seattle finished second in yards-per-pass, tenth in interception ratio and just better than league average in sack ratio. They also played one of the weakest schedules relative to opposing quarterbacks of any team in the NFL this season, so it's clearly NOT the all-time historically great pass defense that it was last year.  I project New England to throw for 7.5 yards-per-pass play.
Edge: New England ( If Sea D can't get to Brady early then this game will be over by 1/2 time and NE won't Sea come back like GB game last week)

Seattle Pass Offense vs. New England Pass Defense:
Opponents threw the ball more often in games against the Patriots than against an average team due to the large leads that New England often had. That makes some of the Patriots aggregate passing defense numbers a little worse than they really are. The Patriots fell below league-average in sack rate (6%) and interception rate (3%), yet were just average in yards-per-pass allowed (6.5). The Patriots have two elite members of the secondary in Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty, but the rest of the members of the secondary, which uses upwards of seven defensive backs a game, are average. Though having Chandler Jones back helps, the Patriots struggle to generate pressure. Collins will be the key for Pats rush D. If they let him loose he should have at least two sacks

Russell Wilson's overall numbers – 3,475 yards on 452 pass attempts (7.7 yards-per-attempt), 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions during the regular season are stellar for anyone. They are also almost identical to what we saw from Wilson over the course of last year. It is easy to point to Wilson's four interceptions and generally terrible play during regulation of the NFC Championship game as issues, but that was the worst game we have ever seen from the most important player to his team and the team still won. Not only did it win, he helped the team win with spectacular plays in overtime. Wilson is definitively one of the league's top ten quarterbacks right now. Plus, with the emergence of Luke Willson, Jermaine Kearse's explosiveness, an x-factor in Ricardo Lockette and a consistently strong Doug Baldwin, Seattle's skill position unit in the passing game is presently underrated. Pressure could be a big factor here, but really only if Seattle is losing and in desperation mode. Russell Wilson had more dropbacks under pressure than anyone in the NFL all season, but he also led the NFL in throwaways by a wide margin and had the third best interception rate of any quarterback while pressured. Though pressured 76 more times than Tom Brady, Wilson was only hit as he threw the ball three times compared to Brady's league-high 13 hits. Especially since New England struggles to get after the quarterback, pressure on Wilson will only matter on critical downs in which conversions are needed (did you hear that Dom Capers?).

Seattle averages 6.1 yards-per-pass in our projections for this game (which is not great, but it is better than what Tom Brady and the Patriots are expected to do… interestingly, the Patriots were actually out-gained per reception over the course of the season, while Seattle was second-best in the league in yards-per-completion margin).
Edge: New England ( I see that Pats coming after Wilson early and often)

Seattle's Run Offense vs. New England's Run Defense:
Seattle finished the season as the best ranked run efficiency offense. Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks faced essentially a league-average schedule with respect to run defenses and averaged 5.2 yards-per-carry in the regular season and 4.7 yards-per-carry in the postseason. They did this despite running the ball more than 50% of the time, which meant that defenses were keying on the run more than the pass. As physical as Lynch is, he can fit the playmaking mold of a “feast or famine” (though “famine” in this case rarely means zero or negative yards) running back that can pick up two or three yards on almost every carry all game and then break a game-changing run. Lynch has had at least a twenty yard run in nine games this season, including both playoff games. Lynch had just 50% of his team's rushes in the regular season, averaging 17.5 carries-per-game, yet has received the ball for over 60% of the Seahawks' carries this postseason.

The most efficient player running the ball for Seattle is quarterback Russell Wilson who uses his legs to buy time and make plays in the passing game, yet can also be effective taking off and running or on designed run plays. Wilson averaged 7.2 yards-per-carry, which led the NFL among qualified rushers, on 118 attempts, which is a step up from what he did his first two seasons in both usage and efficiency. For a quarterback, Wilson has been fairly consistent on the ground, only rushing for fewer than 25 yards in a game three times.

New England's defensive weakness is its run defense, which is 12th overall, the only offensive or defensive unit in this game from either team outside of the top ten. Defensive tackle Vince Wilfork is the best active player on the defense and linebacker Jamie Collins is exceptional at getting sideline-to-sideline behind him, but the team has struggled against the run without Jerod Mayo. The Patriots allowed 4.1 yards-per-carry (league average) in the regular season and have given up a total of 262 yards rushing in two postseason games (a scary 6.6 yards-per-carry). Against teams that finished the year ranked in the top ten run efficiency metrics, New England was just 1-6 against-the-spread. With respect to Seattle's offense against New England's defense, this is strength vs. relative weakness. Seahawks combine for 5.2 yards-per-carry, with Russell Wilson (6.5 rushes for 47.1 yards) and Marshawn Lynch (21.2 rushes for 100.7 yards) both at about their season averages in efficiency with a slight step up in production. If Seattle can exploit this weakness of the Patriots' early, it could be a long day for New England.
Edge: Seattle (If they can score first and stay with running game)

In a league in which teams threw the ball 58.3% of the time on average, Seattle ran more than it passed the ball this year, just one of two teams (with the Houston Texans) to do so. The Seahawks have an effective and efficient quarterback in Russell Wilson who plays a relatively conservative style that is centered around his ability to extend plays with his feet and avoid crippling mistakes. Seattle is built around a defense that so clearly has focused on market inefficiencies physically (tall players in the secondary, light players on the line), yet is loaded with great football players who have consistently proven up to the challenge of the opposition. And though, clearly, New England does everything it can to play within the letters of the rules in the NFL, Seattle blurs what should be a clear, black and white line of legality on the field with a brand of physical football so strong that it overcomes the inevitable issues with penalties.

The Patriots are more pass heavy than average in the league, leveraging an all-time great quarterback in Tom Brady to make many quick throws with similar objectives to a conventional team's running plays. Aside from the alluded to Darrelle Revis and a playmaker at tight end in Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are relatively anonymous otherwise. As much has been made of the team's perceived propensity to bend the rules, the Patriots are incredibly sound overall as an above average team with respect to some of the less heralded elements of the game like special teams, penalties and turnovers. Whereas the Seahawks strengths and weaknesses may be a bit obvious, that's not necessarily the case with New England. The Patriots attempt to dig in and exploit opponents' weaknesses regardless of what that means or takes with their own roster. Against most teams, that works (usually really well), but do not expect that to be the case against Seattle.

Here we go ... Comments and feedback welcome

Take GB +7 and Over 21

7 /21.5 ...