Ih8coldweather

Thursday, April 24th:

PISTONS +1.5 (-105) 

OKC -2 FIRST QUARTER (-115)

OKC -3.5 FIRST HALF (-110)

OKC TT OVER 59.5 FIRST HALF (-115)

NUGGETS +5.5 (-105)

PROPS:

CHET HOLMGREN OVER 15.5 POINTS - 2 unit play (seems way too low)

JOKIC OVER 9.5 ASSISTS 

JOKIC OVER 27.5 POINTS

JOKIC OVER 1.5 3 pointers made (-165) - I like this bet, but I took it small since the juice is so high. He was 4/8 in game one and attempted 4 threes in game 2

JAMAL MURRAY OVER 20.5 POINTS 

We should see a heavy dose of Jokic and Murray, especially if MPJ is out for the game. Expect a ton of pick and roll, and dump offs to Aaron Gordon. Best bets are probably the Holmgren points total and Jokic assists, both guys should be heavily involved in the game. Knicks are a tough team but they are on the road and Detroit is going to be BUMPING. Detroit will be fired up and the Knicks are a different team away from MSG. I look for Cunningham to take the game over and I look for Beasily to have a nice rebound game after shooting poorly last game, will have to check his props. 

@CrazyMilkMan

 on the same 

GS Warriors +4.5 (-115) FULL GAME - LARGE 

Tough loss for the GSW. Butler gone in the first and Podziemski was under the weather. Steph and Draymond did the best they could and Post came in and hit some big shots but too little, too late. It will be interesting to see Jimmy Butlers MRI. A pelvic contusion is just a bruise on his pelvis, and from the sounds of it nothing is broken. Doubt he broke his tailbone/coccyx and he was able to get up and walk after he landed on his back. It will be interesting to see how the official officiate this series moving forward, especially in the Bay. Things got chippy in Houston and I doubt they will let the Rockets hold curry the way they were in this game as he was coming off screens. 

Almost swept the props again, missed the Davion Mitchell assists by 0.5

Kel El Ware - UNDER 6.5 rebounds (-115) - 2 units 

Banchero OVER 25.5 Points (-135) - 1 unit 

Franz Wagner OVER 22.5 Points (-125) - 0.5 units 

Tyler Herro OVER 23.5 Points (-105) - 1 unit 

Davion Mitchell OVER 11.5 points (-105) - 0.5 units 

Davion Mitchell OVER 6.5 assists (-105) - 0.5 units 

Props:

Kel El Ware - UNDER 6.5 rebounds (-115) - 2 units

I like this prop the best. El Ware saw his minutes restricted because both teams chose to play small and the majority of the time Bam was acting as the center. Add to that the size and length of Mobley and Jarrett Allen and this guy will be lucky to grab 3 boards. The number seems WAY too high for me and I think there is value here. Prop bets are usually 0.5 to 1 unit bets but I like the ware under. 

Banchero OVER 25.5 Points (-135) - 1 unit

Franz Wagner OVER 22.5 Points (-125) - 0.5 units

Tyler Herro OVER 23.5 Points (-105) - 1 unit

Davion Mitchell OVER 11.5 points (-105) - 0.5 units

Davion Mitchell OVER 6.5 assists (-105) - 0.5 units

Added:

GS Warriors +4.5 (-115) FULL GAME - LARGE

This really doesn't make much sense to me. The better team is getting 4 points. Yes, I get that they are on the road but the Championship pedigree of this team, with the greatest shooter ever, with Playoff Jimmy Butler and a formidable supporting case going up against an out-coached, inexperienced, and much younger Rockets team? I really think Warriors win this series with a gentleman sweep at 4-1. How has this line steamed 2 points. Everyone is on Houston and that usually means one thing.....the entire forum is on Houston in this dire game 2 situation. Houston cannot go down 2-0 to the Warriors going back to the Bay. But, that is precisely what i see happening. Let us look at their prior matchups:

Sat Nov 2nd - Warriors 127 @ Rockets 121

Thursday Dec 5th - Warriors 99 Rockets 93

Wednesday Dec 11th - Warriors 90 @ Rockets 91

Thursday Feb 12th - Warriors 105 @ Rockets 98

Sunday April 6th - Warriors 96 Rockets 106

Warriors won 3 out of the last 5 games straight up. The game that they lost to the Rockets they lost by only 1 point. I don't see how in such a low scoring playoff game, where the officiating is tight and they are letting guys play, Houston has to lay 4 points now and beat a team with one of the best PG ever to play the game and one of the best playoff performers in Jimmy Butler who rises to the occasion. Give me the Warriors plus the points, large.

It feels like everybody is on the Rockets today? This should be another excellent game. Houston didn’t shoot particularly well last game and they out rebounded the warriors on the glass. For some reason, I just can’t see it though. GS has been on fire since the Acquisition of Jimmy Butler and I’ll take experience over everything. I like the warriors again and the line keeps moving in our favor… I think I might have seen it tough 4 points at some books which to me is just too much in these contested games.

Not sure about the other two games, will probably look at the prop market with banchero, hero and some of the other superstars to see if anything looks inefficient.

@masterkush

 @415m

 
Rough couple of days, let’s keep it going…

Almost swept it. 8 points for Wiggins in 7 minutes, I have no idea why they’re playing their starters when they’re up 20 at the end.

Bucks/Pacers OVER 57.5 1st Q (-110)  

Pacers TT OVER 29.5 1st Q (-120) 

Wiggins OVER 9.5 points (-125) 

Giannis OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-110) 

Bucks/Pacers OVER 57 third Quarter 

Easy cover, no sweat. Wish I went bigger…

Bucks/Pacers OVER 57.5 1st Q (-110) - LARGE 

Pacers TT OVER 29.5 1st Q (-120) - REGULAR 

Added:

Bucks/Pacers OVER 57 third quarter - medium

Added, Tuesday April 22

Bucks/Pacers OVER 57.5 1st Q (-110) - LARGE

Pacers TT OVER 29.5 1st Q (-120) - REGULAR

I love these two plays. Liliard adds offense, yet he has been out for almost a month and I am certain defense and conditioning will be an issue. Porter adds added offense and I like the pace and scoring for the Bucks to pick up. This first quarter line was sitting at 58.5 and it is moving the opposite direction?? I know in the playoffs first Q totals have been lower but I think there is value here. Pacers love to push the pace

Props:

Wiggins OVER 9.5 points (-125) 

I absolutely love this prop. Against Memphis, he has been terrorizing them. Against Memphis this season, he is averaging 25 minutes per game and 20 points on 13 field goal attempts while shooting 50% from the field. If this is a blowout, which very well may be the case again as evidence by the line, he will get garbage time minutes and should easily hit this over

Giannis OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-110)

Lopez will be on the bench when Bucks play small ball and rebounding responsibility falls purely on Giannis. 

Alright team, I think that the two games we have on the slate tonight are pure toss ups. The Clippers/Nuggets is just too close to call. I still think Detroit should be able to cover the 7 number but their inexperience was an issue and Tibs doesn't play his bench. Detroit might crap the bed again and so it is hard for me to pull the trigger on them again, knowing they could have another 4th quarter meltdown. Gun to my head in the Nuggets game, I would still roll with the Nuggets because of Jokic and company. However, Jamal Murrays hamstring looked to be bothering him last game and that is something to keep an eye on. I think, at least for tonight, the best way to approach the betting is through the prop angle. I see a couple of props that look a bit off. I also really like Normal Powell to have a bounce back game after he did not play particularly well last game. I like him and his points as well as points/rebounds/assists number, and I also like Aaron Gordon.

Clippers/Nuggets Game #2 PROPS

Aaron Gordon OVER 23.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-120)

Aaron Gordon OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-105)

Norman Powell OVER 16.5 Points (-105)

Normal Powell OVER 20.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-130) - 5 unit max

Powell played 37 minutes and he did not play particularly well. He has the ball in his hands to iso at the end of quarters and has decent shot volume as the #3 option. He can also create his own shot off the dribble, and is a facilitator as well when Harden is on the bench. I really like his OVER 20.5 Points/Rebounds/Assist prob for this game and look for him to bounce back.

@Brooklyncapper

 I am on Yankees and the Padres as well. I also like the Mets at home. 

Grizzlies/OKC 1st Q OVER 56 LARGE 

Magic/Celtics  1st Q OVER 53 small 

Warriors +2 (-115) - standard 

Ended up chasing and going large on the Warriors. Experience trumps youth and athleticism, especially when you have Curry and Butler. I had props on Podziemski and got incredibly lucky when he made his last layup with 30 seconds to hit his points + points/assists/rebound total. This series will be the toughest to cap IMO in addition to the Denver/Clippers series. Pace was super slow and it will be interesting to see how they defend Curry in the futures. Definitely going to have to look closer and make some adjustments before looking at 1st and 3rd quarter overs. 

Okc in probable blowout, they’ll jump out to a lead. Can see it going under but have to always hold your breath for Memphis unders

Grizzlies/OKC 1st Q OVER 56 LARGE

Magic/Celtics  1st Q OVER 53 small

Warriors +2 (-115) - standard

Norman Powell OVER 17.5 points

Norman Powell OVER 22.5 PTS/RBS/AST

Jamal Murray OVER 5.5 Assists

Added:

Nuggets ML (-140) 

Clippers/Nuggets 3Q OVER 59.5 (-110) - small

Pistons +7 (-105)

1st Q OVER 57 - Standard - PUSH

2nd Q OVER 56.5 - Standard bet 

3rd Q OVER 54.5 - MAX BET