Ih8coldweather

God this is ******* Trae Young gets poked in the eye and they take him out to the locker room, hopefully our first Q over is not cooked 

Sorry, type-o:

Hawks -1.5 1Q (-115)

Added:

Hawks -5 (-115)

Simmons is out. Confirmed. I like the Hawks in this spot with Grant, Simmons, Henderson. 

@Fuse

Thanks brother. Hope I can get back on track.

FYI - Got smoked yesterday going 0-3. I still like the plays and think the line was +EV, couple rough shooting outings and Grizzlies/Celtics decide to score for 70 in the second quarter. Oh well, we move on. Hoping to bounce back today. Initially there wasn't a lot of games that I liked. I try to avoid teams playing in a back-to-back, especially if they aren't in Playoff contention and have nothing to play for. Little motivation for these teams who are checked out, resting key guys, and entering the Cooper Flagg contest.

Initial leans were: 

Hawks -5 

Orlando -4

Denver -2 (steamed to -3.5)

Official Plays:

Hawks TT 1Q OVER 29.5 1Q (-140)

Hawks -1.5 1Q OVER (-115)

Warriors/Grizzlies 1Q OVER 58.5

I like the Hawks at home. They have been playing well. They score easily and Trae Young is shooting well and facilitating. They like to jump out on teams at home. They practically average 30 points in a quarter and they are coming off 3 road games. They have scored over 30 points in 5 out of their last 6 games. Portland doesn't play much defense, they are missing Jeremi Grant, Robert Williamson, and Scoot Henderson, all who played in their only meeting where the Hawks lost by 4 on the road. The Hawks scored 33 in the first quarter in the game by the way. I just see the Hawks jumping out to a lead and I like the team total over 29.5 which is why it is so heavily juiced. I think it correlates well with the Hawks -1.5. I also like the Warriors to continue rolling, after they just smashed the Spurs and Grizzlies have been suspect on defense as of late. I liked them in the over against Boston and I still think that 58.5 is kind of low, even with the coaching change. I could see this starting out as a run and gun type of a game. No official plays yet on Hawks FG, Orlando FG, or Denver, as they are all steaming

@Mortal

 Got smoked, yesterday, looking at some stuff. I will post shortly

Brutal, the Celtics started out hot, took out Porzingis, and went ice cold. They shot 26% from three (4/15) including 0-6 for White, Holiday, Hauser, and Prichard. I still think the OVER was the right call here, despite horrible shooting the managed to somehow score 57. Painful, sorry gang.

Props for anyone who is interested:

Desmond Bane OVER 18.5 points

Derrick White OVER 4.5 assists

Pascal Siakam OVER 6.5 rebounds

@kidd22

NBA Monday:

Added:

Pacers/Kings 1st Q OVER 60 - small

Celtics/Grizzlies 1st Q OVER 60.5 - regular unit play

Celtics/Grizzlies 3rd Q OVER 58.5 - max bet

I also like Pacers -4. They are tough to beat at home and the Kings are not a great road team and they have been on a slump. They play zero defense and Pacers like to push the pace. I know Myles Turner is out but his replacement Obi Toppin can finish around the rim and shoots the 3 ball just as good as Turner. Malik Monk is back in the lineup so he will be a volume shooter and hopefully the Kings shoot better than the 0/6 from 3 like the did again in the first Q against the Magic.

3-0. Really cooking the last couple of days. I believe I am 7-1 in the last 2 days. 

Clippers/Cavs 1st Q over 56 

Raptors -2 

Rockets -2 

Clippers/Cavs 1st Q OVER 56.5 

we got lucky at the end, but we got it… 

Shooting 1/6 and 2/8 from three point in the first Q isn’t going to cut it. 

Clippers/Cavs 1st Q OVER 56.5 (would play 57)

Raptors -2 (-115) - took this when it opened, it has streamed all the way to 5. I wouldn’t play it at 5.

Houston Rockets -2

Clippers/Cavs should be a high scoring game. These teams usually start fast. Sunday afternoon games tend to have a slower pace but I think this one will be run and gun. Khawai Leanard being out will hurt then Clippers defensively and offensively, but should allow Cleveland to score more easily with Clippers missing their best perimeter defender.

Raptors are missing Quickly (Rest) and Poetl, but I still like them to beat Philly who is playing a B2B. I like this at -2 and even -3, but it has been steamed to -5 and I think it loses its value at that number.

Rockets at Suns. Suns are rested. It’s always scary betting against KD and Booker at home. BUT, the team plays zero defense. Houston plays collectively as a group and they’re a much better defensive team. I like the better team here, even though it is on the road against a rested home team.

This is an interesting topic, one that I hope gets some comments from all the gamblers on this forum. For the record, I wholeheartedly agree. Luckily, nobody else in my family has quite the gambling itch that I do. My brother will bet $20-$50 on a UFC fight here or there. The problem is, now that it is legalized and the government is going to get involved, they are going to **** it up as with everything else that they get involved with. 

1. The first and probably the most tragic part of all this is the number of young men's lives that will be ruined by this. The majority of guys like sports, through high school and college. Naturally, when you have a wager on a game, if you win the wager you scream a little louder and cheer a little harder. The problem is that these unsuspecting gentleman are one winning bet away from feeling invincible and thinking they can replicate that win day in and day out. Learning how to be a true *sharp* sports better requires years of pain/misery. It requires tremendous restraint and discipline (think BR management). It requires access to good information, which a large part of being a successful better. You have to recognize narrow edges, and pounce before the information gets out and there is line movement. You think that these 21-30 year olds recognize this? Not a chance. If you can, i recommend checking out the 60 minutes piece that they did on young people getting into sports gambling and how detrimental it is because it is now at their fingertips on their phones.

2. These online casinos are thieves. As a matter of fact, a lot of the sports books are thieves too. They have no problem taking your money when you bet $100 bucks on a 10 team parlay that they know they're going to collect on. But as soon as they spot a winner, they are going to either completely limit the bettor or ban him. If you follow Bill Krackomberger, who is a Vegas legend who has been in the industry for decades, he says "these sportsbooks don't allow winners any more." If you're a winning bettor, theyll just ban you. It is very hard to get big money down nowadays and most people, who are sharp or even trying to bet any substantial amount of money need runners.

Pacers/OKC OVER 58 1st Q 

Celtics/Spurs OVER 58.5 1st Q 

Sorry for the late post.

might have saved people some $

Added:

Pacers/OKC OVER 58 1st Q

Celtics/Spurs OVER 58.5 1st Q

Heat -2.5 1Q - small 

Cooking 

Kings/Magic OVER 53 3rd Quarter 

let’s keep it rolling….

Added:

Heat -2.5 1Q - small

Wiggins and Duncan Robinson are out. However, Philly starts out slow and they have gotten completely blown out in the first quarter in their last 5 games.