Ih8coldweather

Added:

Grizzlies 1stQ Team Total OVER 27.5 (-140) - 2 units

Memphis opened at 3.5. It has moved to 4.5. 

It looks like Duncan Robinson is playing, so that will be added offense for the Heat. 

Heat are on a second game of a back to back, it is their 3rd game in 4 days and 4th game in 6 days, so a fatigue spot for them.

Miami just rolled Boston, so they are rolling with added confidence. They have won 6 in a row and by margin. Why would the Grizzlies be favored here, on the road, and with the line moving in Miami's favor getting more points?

I think the Heat are just going to be gassed out. Not enough legs to carry them against this run and gun Grizzlies team. I see a lot of offense and I think Morant and Bane will cary the load tonight and get to the rim, especially with Wiggins still being out. They could really use him as a perimeter defender.

@jdukes0004

I like your GS angle but I think Memphis is due. Miami is playing a B2B after playing Boston yesterday, I think they’ll be gassed playing against a Memphis team that likes to run and is a tough match for them. The line is already moving towards 5. I really like this spot for Memphis, I just think they’ll outrun Miami.

I locked these two in early. I really like Memphis tonight even though they have not been playing well against Miami who is coming off a B2B. I’ll post the stats later..

Memphis -3.5 (-115)

Blazers -2 (-115)

Pacers 1Q TT OVER 29.5 (-140)  

Pacers -4.5 1Q (-115) 

OKC -13 

Clippers TT 1st Quarter - OVER 29.5 

3-1. what an ending to the OKC game. I was looking bleak when the 15 point lead got cut to 4 but the Thunder went on the craziest OKC run. Nobody wants to play these guys. Nobody. They are too talented and too deep.

Added:

Clippers TT 1st Quarter - OVER 29.5

With the exception of the Kings, who are atrocious, these large favorites are coming out swinging in the first quarter. Instant offense and I look for the same to happen in Los Angeles, as the Clippers, with KL playing, jump out to a large lead and put up points against the short handed Pelicans without their stars. I like Clippers -6 1st Q as well but I think the Clippers team total is the best play. I do not like player props for this game as I anticipate a large blow out.

Pacers 1Q TT OVER 29.5 (-140)  

Pacers -4.5 1Q (-115) 

OKC -13 

@Yessss88

 @Fuse

Pacers 1Q TT OVER 29.5 (-140) - MAX bet

Pacers -4.5 1Q (-115)

OKC - 13 (-105)

Pacers score at will. They have had some bad shooting quarters but their shot volume is insane and they look to run. Prior meetings between these two teams the scoring hasn't been off the charts and that is because I believe that Charlotte knows if they get into a run and gun style of game with the Pacers it will be over. I really like the Pacers to jump out to a big lead in this game and score at will, similar to the recent blowout vs the Wizards. I am laying the juice and taking Pacers TT OVER 29.5 (feels low) and I even lean the over 55.5 1s Q total which also feels low.

OKC is the deepest team in the league. They play with their food. The Pistons have been surprisingly good this year and even were competitive vs the Pistons in their first meeting. I like Thunder in a blowout. 

Sorry fam....the Hawks absolutely killed us...

The sloppiest team and most frustrating to watch. Lots of turnovers, zero defense, can't crash the board. Makes you think of when they had Clint Capella who would man the middle and was an excellent shot blocker and rebounder. They are absolutely missing that. This team will get bounced in the Play-in because they really do play up or down to the level of their competition. 

I lean Denver in the Nuggets/T-wolves game, because the TimberWolves are missing Naz Reid and DivinChenzo, and they travel to Denver where they have to play at altitude. 

God this is ******* Trae Young gets poked in the eye and they take him out to the locker room, hopefully our first Q over is not cooked 

Sorry, type-o:

Hawks -1.5 1Q (-115)

Added:

Hawks -5 (-115)

Simmons is out. Confirmed. I like the Hawks in this spot with Grant, Simmons, Henderson. 

@Fuse

Thanks brother. Hope I can get back on track.

FYI - Got smoked yesterday going 0-3. I still like the plays and think the line was +EV, couple rough shooting outings and Grizzlies/Celtics decide to score for 70 in the second quarter. Oh well, we move on. Hoping to bounce back today. Initially there wasn't a lot of games that I liked. I try to avoid teams playing in a back-to-back, especially if they aren't in Playoff contention and have nothing to play for. Little motivation for these teams who are checked out, resting key guys, and entering the Cooper Flagg contest.

Initial leans were: 

Hawks -5 

Orlando -4

Denver -2 (steamed to -3.5)

Official Plays:

Hawks TT 1Q OVER 29.5 1Q (-140)

Hawks -1.5 1Q OVER (-115)

Warriors/Grizzlies 1Q OVER 58.5

I like the Hawks at home. They have been playing well. They score easily and Trae Young is shooting well and facilitating. They like to jump out on teams at home. They practically average 30 points in a quarter and they are coming off 3 road games. They have scored over 30 points in 5 out of their last 6 games. Portland doesn't play much defense, they are missing Jeremi Grant, Robert Williamson, and Scoot Henderson, all who played in their only meeting where the Hawks lost by 4 on the road. The Hawks scored 33 in the first quarter in the game by the way. I just see the Hawks jumping out to a lead and I like the team total over 29.5 which is why it is so heavily juiced. I think it correlates well with the Hawks -1.5. I also like the Warriors to continue rolling, after they just smashed the Spurs and Grizzlies have been suspect on defense as of late. I liked them in the over against Boston and I still think that 58.5 is kind of low, even with the coaching change. I could see this starting out as a run and gun type of a game. No official plays yet on Hawks FG, Orlando FG, or Denver, as they are all steaming

@Mortal

 Got smoked, yesterday, looking at some stuff. I will post shortly

Brutal, the Celtics started out hot, took out Porzingis, and went ice cold. They shot 26% from three (4/15) including 0-6 for White, Holiday, Hauser, and Prichard. I still think the OVER was the right call here, despite horrible shooting the managed to somehow score 57. Painful, sorry gang.

Props for anyone who is interested:

Desmond Bane OVER 18.5 points

Derrick White OVER 4.5 assists

Pascal Siakam OVER 6.5 rebounds

@kidd22

NBA Monday:

Added:

Pacers/Kings 1st Q OVER 60 - small

Celtics/Grizzlies 1st Q OVER 60.5 - regular unit play

Celtics/Grizzlies 3rd Q OVER 58.5 - max bet

I also like Pacers -4. They are tough to beat at home and the Kings are not a great road team and they have been on a slump. They play zero defense and Pacers like to push the pace. I know Myles Turner is out but his replacement Obi Toppin can finish around the rim and shoots the 3 ball just as good as Turner. Malik Monk is back in the lineup so he will be a volume shooter and hopefully the Kings shoot better than the 0/6 from 3 like the did again in the first Q against the Magic.