jackedward32

60-55-3

North Dakota St -9 (Bison are a tough home team.  Effective FG% on offense and defense are significant advantages vs a tougher schedule compared with Bakersfield.  With 1 exception, all their home wins have been by 10+.  Bakersfield has an edge with offensive boards, but NDSU is a good defensive rebounding team.  Considering the SOS and the home court, I'm taking the Bison)

Good luck today!

60-55-3

North Dakota St -9 (Bison are a tough home team.  Effective FG% on offense and defense are significant advantages vs a tougher schedule compared with Bakersfield.  With 1 exception, all their home wins have been by 10+.  Bakersfield has an edge with offensive boards, but NDSU is a good defensive rebounding team.  Considering the SOS and the home court, I'm taking the Bison)

Good luck today!

60-55-3

North Dakota St -9 (Bison are a tough home team.  Effective FG% on offense and defense are significant advantages vs a tougher schedule compared with Bakersfield.  With 1 exception, all their home wins have been by 10+.  Bakersfield has an edge with offensive boards, but NDSU is a good defensive rebounding team.  Considering the SOS and the home court, I'm taking the Bison)

Good luck today!

57-54-3

Hawaii - 6 (Hawaii has a tougher SOS and still better metrics than Charlotte.  6 points should be low enough for Hawaii to cover)

St Mary -5 (Always like to go against a team playing its first true road game of the year.  Utah St goes into a tough place today.  Despite the record, USU has not played too tough a schedule.  Looking at the numbers, both teams seem pretty even.  The two edges for St Mary are their SOS and home court)

Notre Dame -20 (Irish have good efficiency numbers vs a pretty good schedule so far.  Again, the metrics are in NDs favor and they will have a significant rebounding edge that should allow them to cruise.)

Illinois -3.5 (Missouri's W/L is inflated due to who they've played.  Illinois is a serious step up in competition.  Happy to give away 3.5 on a neutral floor.)

Miami, Oh -7.5 (Sacred Heart has struggled on the road against better teams.  Metrics favor Miami enough to give the points and expect a win by 10+)

Best of luck today.

56-54-3

F***ing Western Michigan blowing a 22 point lead against Valpo?

Busy holiday day so only have one for now.

Michigan State -13.5 (Spartans are ridiculously successful when favored by 10+ at home under Izzo.  FAU without Dusty May is just ... FAU)

Good luck today.

Notre Dame -6.5

This based on the eye test.  Indiana, when facing extremely athletic teams, struggled.  Those teams being Ohio State (loss by 23) and Michigan (won by 5).  Ohio State, despite Ryan Day, is a gauntlet of talent.  Michigan has phenomenal athletes on defense and if they had a mediocre QB, would probably have beaten the Hoosiers in Bloomington.

Notre Dame has athleticism across the board on offense and defense and will make life extremely difficult for the IU offense.  Indiana has an excellent run defense which matches up well with NDs running backs.  The X-factor here will be Riley Leonard, who has steadily improved the Irish passing game as he settled into OC Mike Denrock's offense.  I looked at the IU-Michigan game because I feel this is a good comparator to team styles.  IU did stop Michigan's running attack but gave up more passing yards than rushing yards to their QB of the week Davis Warren.  Riley Leonard is 100 times better than Warren and the Irish have fast athletic receivers he can get the ball to that will stretch IUs secondary.

This is IUs Super Bowl, and their motivation will be high.  But ND just has too many athletes that will wear down the Hoosiers slowly and methodically.  I expect the Irish to pull away in the 4th quarter.

Tulane will be without its starting QB, although it won't matter much.  They run the ball 64% of the time.  Florida has its primary contributors playing today, so the portal losses aren't that big of an issue for them.  Florida runs the ball 58% of the time, so this should be a game that is going to look like old school Big 10 - at least schematically.

Looking at how both defensed the run this year, it is a mixed bag.  Tulane gave up an average of almost 140 rushing yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry compared to Florida's 156 RYPG, 3.9 per carry.  Florida did give up significantly more yards against the pass, but new QB Ty Thompson has not shown the ability to be a significant passing threat.

Both teams will be motivated to win today, but considering the quality of opponents both teams played this year, Florida is much more tested and they have a lot of momentum heading into this game.  Tulane was upset its final two games of the year and did not look very good.

Florida -10.5

Southern +7.5 (The Jaguars are a sneaky under the radar team so far this year.  They create a lot of turnovers and are a very good offensive rebounding team.  And this is playing against the 10th toughest schedule in the nation.  Loyola is a mediocre to bad rebounding team.  Add to that Loyola - with 1 outlier - has not beaten a team this year by more than 4 points all year.  They seem to play to the level of their opponent.  Getting 7.5 seems like a good opportunity.)

Providence +6 (St. John's is playing its first true road game this year tonight.  I looked at a comparable tempo to St John's that Providence has played and saw BYU.  Providence beat them by 21.  Playing a conference road game against a team that has shown they can handle their pace makes me think they can keep it within this number.)

North Texas -12 (We all know how dominant N Texas defense is.  Winning this game shouldn't be an issue.  The question is can the Mean Green outscore App St by 12.  App St has been awful on the road so far this year and is playing its second road game in three nights.  I am guessing it stays within the number until the last 10 minutes when N Texas imposes its will defensively and pulls away.)

Best of luck today!

55-51-3

W Michigan -2 (Valpo has played one of the weakest schedules this year and their effective FG on offense and defense are both abysmal.  Playing on the road should be a struggle for them.  Their one bright spot is rebounding, but that is also WMUs strength.  Expect WMU to win this one, but it'll be ugly.)

According to the SH depth chart, they're playing tonight despite putting their names in the portal.

@River_fish

 I read almost all of their players who put their names in the portal are listed on the depth chart for the game, so I am assuming they will be playing.  If they are out, I am screwed.

53-51-2

Wyoming -14.5 (Bellarmine has played one of the lowest rated schedules so far this year and sit at 3-8.  Despite an easier schedule, their effective D FG ranks 354 among all D1 programs.  Playing against similar teams, they lost by margins of 15+.  With the time change and a slight jump up in competition - let's face it, Wyoming isn't a juggernaut - I still see them covering this number.)

Little Rock -4 (Purely a home court play.  Little Rock has been solid at home with its only blemish to a one loss Loyola, Chicago last week.  SIEU has been the opposite with bad metrics on the road - including a blow out loss to Green Bay.  UALR plays good defense and they should manage to cover this number.)

Norfolk State -5 (I don't see anything positive in the numbers for Alabama St compared with Norfolk.  Maybe its due to the fact these teams will be playing in the first Chris Paul HBCU Classic.  At any rate, Norfolk is a far better team here.)

Good luck today.

@Cowbeagle

 My bad, yes. +4.5  

Another matchup between the CUSA and Sun Belt.

The two conferences head to head show an advantage towards the Sun Belt in terms of quality.  Comparing the SOS between SHSU and Ga Southern, GSU has the advantage.  Comparing the stats, Ga Southern has the advantage on offense in YPP and PPP; Sam Houston the edge on defense.

Sam Houston ran the ball 62% of the time this season; Ga Southern was more balanced, throwing the ball 53% of the time.  I expect both teams to stick to their tendencies tonight.  Ga Southern gave up almost 180 rushing yards per game and were more vulnerable to passing teams, giving up 262 YPG vs the pass, allowing 62% of passes to be completed.  SHSU was an excellent defensive unit only giving up 315 YPG total.

Looking at the portal players for both teams, despite SMSU having a laundry list of players, most are still listed on the depth chart for the game and are expected to play.

Sam Houston has the edge on motivation in only its second year as a D1 program to notch its first victory and get a 10 win season.

This game is a classic offense (Ga Southern) vs defense (Sam Houston) matchup and which unit executes better.  Defense travels, so I will take Sam Houston today.

Sam Houston -4.5

Adding SC State -2 (SC State has much better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers so happy to only give away two in the road at SC Upstate)

@magicmike45

 I like WKU and the points too.  But JM is a run heavy team and WK is abysmal against the run.  It won't be an easy win for them but I think it stays close to win with the points or slightly outright.

@SteamCave

 Veltkamp is playing.  WKU coach lets his players play even if they enter the portal.

49-50-2

Louisiana +1.5 (App State throws the ball away at one of the highest rates in the NCAA.  I know the Cajuns are not very good, but seeing a line this close makes me think App's carelessness may come back to bite them in the bayou.)

New Mexico -3 (VCUs schedule so far this year has been less than stellar - 289th KenPom - boosting their defensive numbers.  Playing in The Pit is a different experience and NM has impressive metrics both on offense and defense.  This is VCUs first true road game this year.)

George Washington -12.5 (GW has been good at home against lesser opponents this year, outscoring them by an average of almost 15 points.  Lafayette fits that description.  GW should pull away by 15+.)

Miami, Oh +5 (Vermont is usually a home juggernaut.  This year not so much.  This is more an eye test pick than anything else, so I'm only doing a half unit on this.  But until they show something at home, grabbing 5 points and a decent MAC school seems like a no brainer, no?)

Good luck today.

A pretty high number for two teams who have similar statistics and SOS.  People favoring JMU because of all the portal defections by WKU.  Many of those players will be allowed to play today, including WK QB Caden Veltkamp who was the CUSA Offensive POY.  JMU starting QB Alonza Barnett is out with an injury so the Dukes will be limited at that position.

That being said, WKU is awful defending the run, giving up 221 rushing YPG.  JMU is extremely run focused on offense, running the ball 57% of the time this season.  I expect them to lean into this even more breaking in their 3rd string QB this afternoon.

At full strength, JMU is the better team.  But with Barnett out and WKU planning to focus on stopping the run, this game will be closer than the touchdown and a hook.  

Western Kentucky +7.5