jackedward32

12-8-1

Wisconsin/UCF O 148 (UCF been scoring in bunches this year - 79.8 PG - Badgers revamped offense can score with most on any night)

SF Austin -5 (Fading awful Monmouth at SFA)

Tennessee -4.5 (Counting on tired Bear legs after last night)

Friday

 FGCU -6 (Home court advantage vs a meh Cal St Bakersfield.  Forget the records.  FGC lost to Drake, Bonaventure, and TCU.  CSB's toughest game so far is against a mediocre Fresno.)

More to come ...

Thursday

SE Mizzou St -1 (Fading C Arkansas even at home.)

UIC +3 (JMU has been underwhelming so far this year.  UIC has looked improved.  Getting points at home seems like there is value.)

NJIT/Bucknell O 136.5 (Bucknell averaging over 82 possessions per game.)

11-8-1

Friday

FGCU -6 (Home court advantage vs a meh Cal St Bakersfield.  Forget the records.  FGC lost to Drake, Bonaventure, and TCU.  CSB's toughest game so far is against a mediocre Fresno.)

More to come ...

Thursday

SE Mizzou St -1 (Fading C Arkansas even at home.)

UIC +3 (JMU has been underwhelming so far this year.  UIC has looked improved.  Getting points at home seems like there is value.)

NJIT/Bucknell O 136.5 (Bucknell averaging over 82 possessions per game.)

@jackedward32

 Major fuckup on my part.  UIC playing neutral site.  Damn Feast Week.

9-7-1

Thursday

SE Mizzou St -1 (Fading C Arkansas even at home.)

UIC +3 (JMU has been underwhelming so far this year.  UIC has looked improved.  Getting points at home seems like there is value.)

NJIT/Bucknell O 136.5 (Bucknell averaging over 82 possessions per game.)

Wednesday

 Merrimack +19.5 (Rutgers has not shown the ability to blow anyone out yet.  Once their freshmen get comfortable, that should change.  Until then ...)

 N Colorado +6 (I'm high on NoCo so far.  Cal Baptist should be a step down for them to regroup after losing late to Wash State this weekend.)

 UCSB -5.5 (Good team at home against a team that hasn't played in over a week and should have a little rust.)

 Nicholls +3 (Home court advantage and getting points.  Towson is decent but is an even match for Nicholls.)

As someone alluded to earlier, home court matters so much in college hoops.  Explains why Purdue beat a much better Alabama this weekend.  Add to that Purdue was due for a serious letdown/regression whatever you want to call it after putting so much into beating Alabama.  Emotional letdowns are also huge in CBB.  A perfect example from this year already:

Wisconsin beats Arizona.

Next game they come home to play an decent UTRGV and barely eke out the win.  On most days, Wisconsin is probably 12-15 points better.  Coming off that Arizona win though, they came out flat in the first half and trailed almost the entire game.

One angle I like looking at are those teams coming off a "signature" win as a dog and fading the their next game (if the line is right).  I think the Purdue-Marquette game is a perfect example of that.

7-5-1

Wednesday

Merrimack +19.5 (Rutgers has not shown the ability to blow anyone out yet.  Once their freshmen get comfortable, that should change.  Until then ...)

N Colorado +6 (I'm high on NoCo so far.  Cal Baptist should be a step down for them to regroup after losing late to Wash State this weekend.)

UCSB -5.5 (Good team at home against a team that hasn't played in over a week and should have a little rust.)

Nicholls +3 (Home court advantage and getting points.  Towson is decent but is an even match for Nicholls.)

Tuesday

Queens/App St O 149.5 (Queens averages one of the highest possession rates in the country.  Should get over this number at home)

N Iowa -14.5 (more of a fade on W Illinois who has been atrocious all year so far)

Adding in Samford +18.5 (If the total is listed at 162, that favors Samford's pace.  Michigan State would rather slow this down and grind it out.  A number of 162 doesn't indicate that.)

Adding in Samford +18.5 (If the total is listed at 162, that favors Samford's pace.  Michigan State would rather slow this down and grind it out.  A number of 162 doesn't indicate that.)

@Verdict

Yeah.  Brutal game for them all around.

5-4-1

Tuesday

Queens/App St O 149.5 (Queens averages one of the highest possession rates in the country.  Should get over this number at home)

N Iowa -14.5 (more of a fade on W Illinois who has been atrocious all year so far)

Monday

Northern Colorado +12 (NCU is a tough mid major who should keep it close)

North Florida -5 (Purely on home floor advantage.  Expect NF to slow UNCA down at home.)

@Fuse

 Thanks - altho yesterday was a shit sandwich.

5-2-1

Monday

Northern Colorado +12 (NCU is a tough mid major who should keep it close)

North Florida -5 (Purely on home floor advantage.  Expect NF to slow UNCA down at home.)

Sunday

Hawaii -5 (Weber St has been struggling so far.  A decent Hawaii team at home won't help them.)

Washington -9 (A big step up for UMass Lowell out west.)

Coastal Carolina +1.5 (Chanticleers have played better opponents tough.  Jacksonville St is a step down and they get them at home.)

Lean

Holy Cross -5 (Hate betting really bad teams.  But New Hampshire is awful.  Just a lean.)

Bets 5-0

Leans 1-2

Sunday

Hawaii -5 (Weber St has been struggling so far.  A decent Hawaii team at home won't help them.)

Washington -9 (A big step up for UMass Lowell out west.)

Coastal Carolina +1.5 (Chanticleers have played better opponents tough.  Jacksonville St is a step down and they get them at home.)

Lean

Holy Cross -5 (Hate betting really bad teams.  But New Hampshire is awful.  Just a lean.)

Saturday

Idaho St +1 (Bengals have played tough teams well.  San Diego is a step down in class for them.)

S Alabama -4.5 (Same reason as above.  Mercer has been meh this year.)

Northridge/Sacramento State O144 (Northridge plays at one of the fastest paces this year.  Increased shot volume = increased points)

Picks: 2-0

Leans: 1-2

Saturday

Idaho St +1 (Bengals have played tough teams well.  San Diego is a step down in class for them.)

S Alabama -4.5 (Same reason as above.  Mercer has been meh this year.)

Northridge/Sacramento State O144 (Northridge plays at one of the fastest paces this year.  Increased shot volume = increased points)

Happy season

DePaul -5.5 (New DePaul been playing well; Duquesne has been underwhelming this year)

UTRGV -4 (UTRGV is a fun team to watch that can score in bunches - Charleston So has done nothing and will be hard pressed to keep up)

Leans

Purdue +2.5 (strictly based on Purdue's success as a home dog - haven't shown much so far)

Fordham -8.5 (Rams playing well.  Can they win on the road vs a bad Manhattan?)

Ga Southern/NC Central U153 (NC Central makes you play in quicksand.  If they control the tempo, they keep this number low.  Neutral site so only a lean.  If it were at home, it would be a unit pick.)

@dayknight

Nope. They’re awful.  

Mike Davis is just stealing money and has been since he took over that program.  I watched the Titans often last year because I'm a local and was curious about following the Antoine Davis hype.  It was painful because they were probably just as bad last year unless Antoine got on a heater and made 5 of the 25 3s he jacked up from anywhere on the floor at any time.

They are completely undisciplined and have no offensive continuity.  Their "defense" is 1000% worse.

I'd fade them every game and if you can get them below 10 points, it will probably be the easiest ticket you'll ever cash.

4-3 last night for a small ROI

Niagra +2.5

Siena +10.5

Princeton +3.5

Taking a flier on:

Siena ML

BOL

3-1 last night.  The Cadets decided not to show.

SMU -8.5

St Francis (PA) +13.5

Coastal Carolina +19

LIU +9.5

Hawaii +1.5

Cal Northridge +10.5

Cal Davis +4

BOL

Army +14

Tulsa -1.5

W Virginia +3.5

Slight lean Evansville +1

BOL