jackedward32

@RUM151

 Condolences man.  Sorry to hear.

Been tracking conference play and two of them stand out where the home team has won S/U at a significant clip throughout the season.  Good opportunities for home dogs to cover if the metrics look even or favorable.

Patriot home teams are 61-19 straight up.

WAC home teams are 39-17 straight up.

The teams in the Patriot doing the worst at home (H Cross, Lehigh, Loyola, Md) are still 4-4.  The best road record in conference is American at 3-5.  Army and Colgate are at 3-6.  This is not just superior teams beating the shit out of bad teams.  There is a definite home court advantage.

In the WAC there seems to be two home outliers and two road outliers.  S Utah and Utah Tech are at 3-10 and 2-10 respectively at home.  Grand Canyon and Utah Valley are at 4-2 and 5-1.  So GC and UV are heads above the rest of the teams there.  The remaining 5 teams - Abeline Christ, Cal Bapt, Seattle, and Tarleton, UT-Arlington - could be looked at when they are at home as having value.

The Patriot is a little more cut and dry when it comes to home teams compared with the WAC, but there could be some nuggets in these conferences when considering short home favorites or home dogs.

That's my Ted Talk for today.  Thank you.

Big game for Del State against NC Central

Revenge game for DSU - lost at NC Central by 3 back in January.

DSU only takes 2 point shots (#2 nationally in point distribution per KenPom) - NC Central ranks 358th in defending 2PG

DSU just got through a brutal 2 game stretch vs the top 2 MEAC teams (Norfolk, SC State) and will want to have a "get right" game at home tonight.  They did lose in OT on Saturday, which is a small concern but not enough for me stay away.

Delaware State -3.5

Great win.  Way to read through the fishy line.

Man, that's a funky line.  UMKC has been garbage this year in the Summit, but they're favored here?   Against 1st place Omaha?  I ran from this, but I hope you hit this.

Tailing ya.  BOL 

@CusDAmato1

@CusDAmato1

 Be a lot of simoleons if you hit it.

Good luck.  Jumping on this train!

SJSU +14.5

Fresno St U155

Good luck tonight.

UC Riverside +11

Omaha -6

Niagra/Merrimack 126 O

W Kentucky/Kennesaw 157 U

Towson/S Brook 129.5 O

Albany/Bryant 159 U

Let's go!

Northern Kentucky -1.5 (stinky line alert)

VMI +6.5

H Point/Radford 143.5 U

Detroit Mercy +13.5

Mercer +10.5

Creighton -3

UCF -3.5

Rice/ECU 138 U

Ga Sou/S Miss 150.5 O (S Miss scores at home.  The tempo of this game will be above average so I expect them to hit this number.)

UTEP/MTSU 142 O

Kansas St/Iowa St 144.5 O

Best of luck to all!

  Couldn't pull the trigger on Princeton, but love the other 3.  BOL!

I like that Butler pick.  Been playing better the last 2 weeks.

Columbia -3 (Decent Ivy team opened with the best 3 in the Ivy - Yale (L), Princeton (L), Cornell (W) then dropped a road game to Penn.  They get Harvard tonight at home and they are the better team per the eye test and KenPom (adjusted rating factoring in home court puts them at 7+).

Akron/Kent St 144.5 O (Akron has been a machine on offense averaging nearly 90 points their last 6 games.  Kent seems to like to play up tempo when matched up against teams that play this style so there should be enough possessions to get to the total.)

Good luck tonight.

85-94

Nice to finally win more than lose.

Gonzaga -14.5

Colorado -3.5 (Stinky line)

Toledo/Ohio 159.5 U

B Green/Kent St 141 O

Akron/N Illinois 154 U

Good luck!

83-93

NC State +22

Incarnate Word -5

Michigan -9

Good luck tonight