jackedward32

@MJCpirate

 I'm a good fade right now.  That poop smell is coming from me.

81-87

C Carolina +6  (Two teams played each other 7 days ago resulting in a 1 point win for GSU.  Not much time for improvements with either team and game plan in that short turnaround.  Should be close so I'm taking the points.)

@Thinkb4ubet

 Yeah.  They're pretty lost after their coach bailed on them.  The Stanford big is a freaking stud.  I just figured they have too much talent to keep getting taken to the woodshed.  But who knows?  Long trip west.  It could screw them up even more.

I have been fading MVSU anytime they're a dog of 20 or less.  That team is just overpowered every time they take the floor.

I grabbed Miami at 11.  Agree they are a total shit show.  Hoping they have some pride tonight after 2 embarrassing losses and Stanford has a bit of a letdown.  Good luck with your pick.

81-84

Youngstown St -2.5 (YSU playing a Robert Morris team that just took 2 in a row on the road.  Now they go to YSU to play a team that is tough at home and leads the Horizon in effective defensive FG%.  Don't expect them to get a third straight road win here.)

Miami, Fl +11 (I shouldn't be betting on the Hurricanes.  Nobody should.  They are a program in complete disarray.  But ... they are a team coming off 2 embarrassing losses playing Stanford who just had one of its biggest road wins in recent memory.  If there are two teams primed to reverse course, this is the game to do it.  Getting away from the negativity at home should help so I'll roll the dice and take the double digits.)

San Diego St -13.5 (The last time these two played - January 8 - the Aztecs won by 30.  I don't think much has changed since then except that SDSU is sitting in the middle of the MWC standings.  I expect them to be locked in on this one and cruise past the Falcons.)

Best of luck today!

80-82

Dayton -3 (This feels like one of those "have to have" games for the Flyers.  2-3 is not what this team expected to be at this point of the season.  Duquesne has played well lately and 3 straight wins has them feeling pretty good about themselves.  This is a good spot for them to regress a little against a desperate quality team on the road.)

C Michigan -3.5 (The Chips have played well at home in the MAC crushing EMU and losing by two to Ohio.  They play Ball State who is ranked 2nd to last in the MAC on defense.  The Cardinals go on the road after 4 straight home games which works in CMUs favor as well.)

N Iowa -11.5 (NIU is coming off an embarrassing 24 point loss to S Illinois.  They face winless Missouri St at home today whose effective offense and defense rank near the bottom of the MVC.  I expect the Panthers to come out and get the bad taste out of their mouth against a struggling Mizzou St.)

Good luck!

[Quote:  I understand Ohio State has been playing at another level last 3 games but Notre Dame is super exceeding market expectations week after week after week after week...I'm not going against that. Final score 23-20. Let's have a winning evening everybody.[/Quote]

This something everyone is missing.  ND has been playing peak defense the past month.  Not saying they'll win, but if the D plays the way it has been, this one will be tighter than the TD+.

Good luck tonight.  Appreciate your write ups.

@Parlay_pal

 Likely.  Just crap luck that both Montanas play their 3rd in 5 when teams that are favored usually struggle to cover.  I just can't believe I'm betting on Big Sky basketball.

I started looking at home/away records in conferences to see if there are any edges or trends.  Do home teams play better during the week or on the weekend, etc?  Going to start digging into the numbers to see what I find.

Here are the W/L for each conference overall (S/U winners not ATS).  Records are W/L for home teams through yesterday:

A10: 27-13

American: 20-14

ACC: 30-25

American East: 10-10

American Sun: 22-14

Big 12: 29-19

Big East: 24-15

BIG 10: 39-23

Big Sky: 16-11

Big South: 21-4

Big West: 20-20

CAA: 21-17

CUSA: 17-6

Horizon: 29-20

Ivy: 2-6

MAAC: 27-18

MAC: 12-18

MEAC: 10-5

MVC: 26-22

MWC: 22-18

NEC: 7-13

OVC: 27-16

Patriot: 24-6

SEC: 24-16

Southland: 21-21

SoCon: 15-15

Summit: 17-7

Sun Belt: 31-18

SWAC: 18-10

WAC: 15-4

WCC: 24-15

The Patriot Conference is pretty home court friendly, although home teams went 2-3 this past Saturday so maybe a regression back to some normalcy?

OSU was much more talented the last two years against the Irish and still had to pull both games out late in the game.  ND knows how to defend this team and the talent difference isn't as significant this time compared with the two previous years.  I know OSU added Chip Kelly, but ND added Mike Denrock who is just as good at utilizing what he has on offense.  This will be close.

78-80

Below .500 for the first time this season.  Fade as you see fit.

Georgetown +8 (The Hoyas have reached "must win" status for an at large bid.  Ed Cooley has proven to be a good tournament coach, so he should know what his team needs to do tonight.  They may not win, but they will fight like hell going down.)

Florida A&M -14.5 (More times than not, whoever plays Mississippi Valley State covers.  I need to get me some of this.)

Idaho +4 (Montana playing its third game in 5 nights.  Tired legs.)

Eastern Washington +5.5 (Montana St playing its third game in 5 nights.  Tired legs.)

Good luck today and Go Irish!

Always get a kick out of questions like this.

ND-OSU have played twice in the past two seasons.  Both games were extremely tight.  Looking at the teams, there is not much change with the talent level at OSU.  It was elite in 2022.  It was elite in 2023.  It is elite this year.  Despite that, the game came down to late scores to determine the winner.  

Looking at ND's talent level, despite the injuries, the Irish are more talented than the 2023 team and much more talented than the 2022 team.  Is it at the level of OSU?  Of course not.  But this staff knows how to defend OSU and keep it close.  My guess is the Irish expect to keep it close and try to create a break late to make the difference like they did against Penn State (late pick) and Georgia (screw up setting up vs punt then offense running on to get an offsides call).

I would be surprised if this was a blowout game based on the recent history between these two teams.  It's essentially a conference game due to the familiarity between these two over the past 3 years which means it should be a close game.

@AJ86

 Regarding their left tackle, the guy replacing him was slated to be the actual starting LT at the beginning of the season until he got injured before the Texas A&M game.  I know reps are important, but the guy replacing him (Jagusah) is a high quality player.

78-78

Youngstown St -7.5

IUPUI +5.5

Good luck today

78-78

Youngstown St -7.5

IUPUI +5.5

Good luck today

78-77

Long Beach St -5.5 (#2 effective FG% vs #11 effective FG defense %.  Fullerton struggles mightily on defense and LBSU is better with the ball and they are at home.)

Good luck today!

77-76

St Joseph +2 (STJ has been scorching from behind the 3 in A10 play, something that VCU struggles to defend (9th in A10 3PGD).  VCU shoots 2PG at a rate of 56.3, but STJ defends these shots well - 43.5.  I worry about St Joe's ability to take care of the ball, but being at home they should minimize TOs.  Like the home team and the points.  Home teams in the A10 are winning S/U 67% of the time so I like my odds getting the points.)

UCLA -7 (The Bruins have been getting decimated by the physical play of the BIG.  Mick Cronin admitted to this as much earlier this week.  Luckily they get Iowa this week who couldn't (or wouldn't) defend if their lives depend on it.  Being back home after a brutal east coast trip against Iowa's porous defense is what they need to get back on track.  If UCLA loses this, it is going to be a long year in LA.)

Best of luck to all today.

77-74

William & Mary -3.5 (The Tribe sit on top of the CAA and lead the league in offensive efficiency.  They rank #2 in 3PG and #1 in 2PG while Hampton sits #11 and #13 respectively on defense.  Hampton ranks near the bottom nationally with 2PG, which is a problem as almost half of their scoring attempts are inside the 3.  There has been no noticeable home court advantage in the CAA as S/U home wins are one game above .500 so far in conference play.)

Stetson ML (Going to take a chance here with the Hatters.  They have one of the best offenses in the Atlantic Sun so far this season and numbers-wise, their defense is better than Queens who sits on top of the conference.  Normally I would take the 5.5 points with this, but I think Stetson has a shot to win this outright as Queens is travelling to Florida Gulf Coast Saturday to play for a potential first place matchup and this is a spot where they could be looking ahead a bit.)

Best of luck today!

@JimboSlice01

 And the ND team from 2013 is nowhere near this year's team.  Much tougher, faster, and skilled.