Jesse_James

Absolutely pathetic from Taro Daniel unfortunately

1-3, -1.83u

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R2
Andrey Rublev vs Yoshihito Nishioka
Handicap: Andrey Rublev -2 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Not much to say on this one, I think Rublev is far more talented and I expect him to get the job done. Nishioka had a nice win over Harrison, but really Harrison didn't offer much on the return game (2 points or something like that won in the first set lol), couldnt consistently serve, couldn't consistently win points off his second serve and phoned it in uncharacteristically when he got broken in the second set. 

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R2
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Handicap: Guillermo Garcia Lopez +2.5 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Schwartzman plays his first match of the year and his HC record is really average for a top 20 player. Garcia Lopez had never been a great HC player and whilst in decline he has a match under his belt here with confidence. I think Schwartzman will struggle in his first match in Sydney and his track record is pretty poor here in Australia too aside from a fourth round run last year.

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R2
Sam Querrey vs Gilles Simon
Handicap: Gilles Simon -1 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Gilles Simon had a good run in Pune where he fell short to Anderson but had been playing well. In comparison to the guy Querrey played, his opponents have been superior and he in my opinion is better on the return of serve. I don't know what to expect of Querrey going forward but at least with Simon I know what I am going to expect based of what I've seen from him in 2019 so far. 
Look for a former winner here in Sydney to look to have another good week before the Australian Open, collecting valuable points on the way.

ATP Sydney International 250, Men's Singles, R1
Alex De Minaur vs Riley Opeika
Set Handicap: Alex De Minaur -1.5 Sets @ 2.10 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Alex De Minaur had a pretty great Brisbane campaign only to be stopped by Jo Wilfried Tsonga who has also done a pretty good job to come back from injury being able to physically outmuscle him and break him on the run. I think he will be better for it in the long run as he gets older and physically better. 
Against Opeika here he plays a guy who is good on serve and not much else. So long as he controls things on the return of serve, attack the second serve I think he can outrally him.
Opeika did a nice job making it to the main draw here in Sydney but really his best results were in the US and I don't expect that to be any different today.

1-2, -0.83u

ATP Sydney International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Taro Daniel vs Jordan Thompson
Handicap: Taro Daniel +3 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I dont feel like there is a big difference as the odds indicate and I think Taro Daniel is a potential winner for this matchup. Whilst he hasn't been as successful on the ITF/Challenger Tour I think he's handled the transition to the ATP Tour better, as with Jordan Thompson I feel like we hear about him more in January when it is the Australian Summer. 
He was pretty good as a Lucky Loser in Brisbane matching Tsonga stroke for stroke and I think he will want to make the most of his matchup in Sydney here against a more inferior opponent.
A line of 3 at that price is a line I am happy to take. 

^Sorry that was meant to be -1.5 Set Handicap

ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Andy Murray vs Daniil Medvedev
Moneyline: Andy Murray @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Andy Murray was far from playing great in his match against Duckworth and at times throughout that match, to me he looked a little flat and tired. But I think that performance will make him better for this matchup. Whilst the odds reflect what's happened in 2018 such as Murray's lack of match practice having only really played after Wimbledon and Medvedev having made a surge up the rankings after his good start by winning the Sydney International I like the odds here for Murray to continue his unbeaten run here in Brisbane (11-0).
I don't know if Medvedev can match Murray's practicalities being a lean young player, but if he is to make a dent in this match he will likely have to attack Murray's second serve, which is god awful for a player of his calibre (former world no 1, 3x Slam Champ, 2x Gold Medalist) but Murray is better and stronger off both wingspans including the backhand and forehand. 
I'm also hoping the rustiness he showed at times against Duckworth with a few silly errors is cleaned up a bit in this match.

YTD: 0 - 1, (-1.00u)

ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Jordan Thompson vs Alex De Minaur
Set Handicap: Alex De Minaur 1.5 Sets @ 2.17 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I really like everything I've seen from Alex De Minaur. He was relentless in beating Popyrin who did show some life in the backend of the second set but really he was outclassed by De Minaur. He's looked as determined as I've seen, chasing everything, hitting everything back twice as hard and even when he got broken in that second set he broke back immediately.
Jordan Thompson has had some good results in Australia including winning a few Challenger Events himself but the quality of those opponents was not in De Minaur's class IMO. 
Aussies and notably playing here in Australia fight hard and don't give up but I don't think that will be enough to give De Minaur enough of a challenge as I'll take the better odds with a straight sets win

ATP Brisbane International 250, Mens Singles, R2
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Milos Raonic
Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Miomir Kecmanovic came off some really solid results in Challenger events in 2018, and in 2019 he will look to break into the top 100 for the first time with potentially an entry into the main draw of the Australian Open whether it be through Qualifying or a direct entry. A win here will help immensely and I think he has the tools to make this a competitive match.
He came through in qualifying beating Taro Daniel as well as a seasoned veteran in Leonardo Mayer in his first match which I think is a good prep for him coming into this match.
Hard to tell what to expect of Milos Raonic. He beat Aljaz Bedene who is not a known hard court player and who only won one match in 2018 on hards on the main tour. He can also be pretty inconsistent despite having a playing history here and winning the title a few years back beating Federer.
He also had a pretty disappointing finish to the end of last season on the hard courts losing 4 out of his last 5 matches with a walkover against Federer.
Looking at the numbers it's clear Bedene didn't offer up much of a challenge and I think Kecmanovic will provide more of a challenge in this matchup. My numbers have this closer to 24-25 and I think there is reasonable value taking the over in this match up.

Donny VP Rightside is on the Falcons -3.5 so Buccs +3.5 is great

1-2-2, -$107.5

Gonna be a fun US Open in this heat with all these retirements, one would like to hope the ones that look like winning and the ones that don’t even up in the course of one’s time betting but the two voided ones could have just as quickly lost too so it could have been much worse.

John Isner -4.5 @ 1.97 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Isner has seemingly cracked through the slam barrier making his first ever Grand Slam SF at Wimbledon after having not played since the French Open and he is in a tournament where without a doubt the home fans will cheer him on and he will thrive under that. His record at the US Open is pretty good (maybe not great) but he hasn’t exited early since 2008 where he lost in 1R. Whilst there are seemingly question marks over Isners ability to close out matches as he prefers to play longer ones he is playing a guy who specialises on clay and whos only slam win came against Krajinovic in four sets who hadn’t played in months. Whilst Jarry at times has been exciting young player to watch I’ll go with the proven experience and powerful serve behind Isner here.
Understandably there is some risk with the conditions but we’ll see how he goes

Jack Sock -4, 1.952 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

More or less, for similar reasons as Isner's going with a guy playing on home soil who should be capable of beating his opponent, being more conditioned to the US temperatures despite sometimes fitness issues and playing a guy with little success here. He beat Bedene in the first round who's neither a noted US soil guy nor is he a hardcourts guy having only made it past the 1R here in 2015 in 5 attempts.

Seems like the heat and humid weather is playing a big part in the results so far, if this keeps up it could quite basically be Nadals US Open to lose, although it'll probably be cooler later on in September as well as playing in a later time.

Looks like it affected McDonald today which is a shame, as it was my favourite bet. Nothing to do with Haase being good and winning the match on his own racquet so I can live with those sorts of losses as much as it hurts.

Ironically it seems to be benefitting Monfils in his match who usually struggles hard with his fitness so it's a nice turnaround.

Anything in particular that makes you like him more? I'm just not a fan of it at that price/line offered. Also I'm not sure how he will handle the slower surface compared to Taro Daniel.

Also popped in to post one more bet for the day

Gael Monfils -5.5 @ 1.925 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Couldnt really find a whole lot of games I really loved personally going through the whole board, a lot I really liked otherwise but not as confident. Still I guess as it's been shown anyone can beat anyone on their day ey? Anderson struggled etc. Normally not as much of a fan of backing Monfils as early as well with little match practice but he's clearly a class above a lesser player who is more of a clay guy.

Taro Daniel +4, 1.99 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

I am a fan of De Minaur but I don't feel like he should be that heavy of a favourite. Taro Daniel showed some great tennis and seems to be making a good mark on the hard courts in recent years. I know he is more known for being a clay court player but he's playing a guy who's smaller physique doesn't seem to be as great for the slams at this point in time with his lack of experience. I feel the odds should be much closer then this and see this being as a much more competitive match.

Marin Cilic/Marius Copil Under 34 Games, 1.961 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Despite the big disappointment at Wimbledon, the expectations are back on for Marin Cilic, and I'm too one of those expecting big things from him in this tournament. I think that despite the results at Cincinnati I've seen enough from Cilic to believe he has a few extra gears in him to win this match comfortably, especially if it's a slower surface as rumoured. 

Not entirely bothered scrolling back to the pages to find my other thread so i'll make a new one for the last slam of the year. From what I've seen in qualifiers and players in practice and it seems that the courts look a bit slower this year and high bouncing. Hopefully there are less weather delays and it's a good tournament. Thank goodness they can play as long as they want in this slam!

Mackenzie McDonald +4, 1.869 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

I have been following this guys form all year and it seems like it's been a bit of a breakthrough despite being 23 (turned pro in 2016). The guy plays hard at the slams and has notched up an impressive 4 wins on those best of 5 set surfaces. And yes, I know it's no secret that I enjoy backing him (based off Wimbledon etc) but he's flown under the radar a bit into his countrymen who get more mentions such as Francis Tiafoe and Taylor Fritz.
His first match in a grand slam (from a wildcard) was a 5 set loss so I don't expect this to be an easy one. Whilst having some ok form leading up to the US Open (even though he's more known for performing in Europe his Grand Slam record on Hardcourts has been less then spectacular at best. I think a potentially slower surface suits McDonald better as he is a known grinder and I think as a match wears on he will be the stronger mental player between the two. 
I look forward to a well fought out match but I think there is serious value in both the McDonald line and outright h2h between the two here.

Marcos Baghdatis/Mikhail Youhzny Over 36.5 Games, 1.961 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

I found it interesting that out of over 30 matches played in the mens singles there were only 3 matches that went to five sets, and about half of those were 3 sets. So today I looked through the entire board of matches to see what kind of matchups there were, and what kind of totals there were whether I thought they had the potential to be five set matches or matches where there's no way there would be three matches, then this one stood out to me. 
So firstly this matchup fit the criteria at being a potential 5 set match, as well as a match where I thought both players would have a strong chance to win a set, and from there it is anyones game. Then as it became known earlier in the year, Youhzny is retiring permantly from tennis after St Petersburg next month so this will be his last slam. Last year he played a 5 set match against Roger Federer in the 2R. 
So with that said, being the underdog I dont expect Youhzny to limp out of this match considering the successful career he has had making 4 QFs and 2 SFs (At the US Open. 

Wimbledon SW19, Womens Singles, Final

Angelique Kerber vs Serena Williams

Totak Score: Over 22 Games @ 2.00

Stake: $300

Novak Djokovic Moneyline @ 1.952 

Stake: $200

Nadal made a good go of beating Del Potro and could live with getting that one wrong. But I think Djokovic presents a whole more pain of a matchup on grass on Nadal compared to other surfaces. Ill try and be brief with why I think so :P

For those that remember their Wimbledon Final from 2011, and the French Open Final will know why things favour Djokovic. And no, the fact these matches were 6-7 years ago is irrelevant. Those that remember Djokovic running out of steam against Nadal in 2007 were probably not surprised that he dominated him in that 2011 Wimbledon Final.

The reason why I compared the 2012 French Open Final to the Wimbledon 2011 Final, and why the script may be similar this time around is as follows...

Nadal plays a game which basically states straight up "I am better than anyone at hitting balls into positions where you can't attack me without taking huge risks, and I can do it longer than anyone". Watch the angle that his balls bounce as they cross the baseline. He gets them jumping up near vertical. So a normal player (on clay) has to take huge risks because they know they can't compete with his game. Players that don't have an alternate game (Ferrer) just get chopped. So for Nadal this will work against, effectively, nearly everyone bar Novak.

When the rain came in on that day, Novak completely changed his shot selection to the sort of game he plays on hard court. Effectively he's trying to open the court up on nearly every shot even if it means being exposed. The reason why it's so effective is because the ball is bouncing lower now so when Nadal tries to take advantage and 'rip' the ball away the spin just doesn't have the same effect. So Novak feels safer hitting the ball to open up the court because he knows he can't be hurt. He's getting his body behind the ball so that he can use the ground reactive force in his legs to get the extra power. And he knows he can do it because Nadal can't take him out of court as much, so he's willing to do the extra running

Djokovic usually wants to take those risks because it opens the court up and he's fast enough to get to Nadal's response. On a dry clay court though Djokovic's flat attacking balls get held up and then the spin from Nadal just puts the ball way too far out of court for it to be a winning strategy.

As the court gets wet, Djokovic's flat attacking shots still get held up, but Nadal's response isn't as devastating because a wet ball doesn't bounce the same. So now Djokovic is willing to take the risk because he knows he can get back across the court and in doing so he's opened up the whole court for both players which is where he is significantly better than Nadal.

And Nadal knows it too. It's exactly the same as their Wimbledon final. And it's why the media made a big deal about him wanting to suspend play. Effectively Novak uses aggressive movement, aggressive shot selection. And he's got enough speed and endurance to do it for long periods of time. Nadal knows and he hates it heh.

John Isner Moneyline @ 1.925 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $200

Well I certainly made a good call on Anderson making a match out of it, hah. Probably was the match of the tournament for mine IMO. Had a bit of a soft spot for him after he got injured so it's good to see him back on the horse. Though Isner has looked more unhittable I think. I've underrated him and it's paid dearly. But I wonder how much legs Anderson will have from that match the other day and whether mentally he left it all out there in his QF and whether he has enough now. I was initially likening to riding his form because he's played very well but this time I'm going to side with John Isner. He made Raonic look ordinary and I think if there is someone to crack first I think it will be Anderson.

20 - 19, +$266.20

Close, but not close enough. Thought the Djokovic violation was clear nonsense also which came after he missed break point chances and led to him being distracted. As always the umpires discretion is usually inconsistent. Oh well, moving on to the last three mens matches.

Milos Raonic -1.5 @ 2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

This matchup will be hard to predict with both guys who have big serves, but I have given the edge to Raonic because I think he is more likely to break. And I feel Isner hasn't really played anyone that has looked like threatening his serve despite an impressive three set win against Tsitpasis. Raonic has been here to the QF and is looking more and more confident in each game he plays. I see no real value taking the line so i'll take the extra 30 odd cents on the small handicap and hope its enough. 

Juan Martin Del Potro +4.5 @ 1.99 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

Juan Marin Del Potro ML @ 3.29 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $50

Despite no warm up matches and coming off a historic 11th Roland Garros title Nadal has moved through relatively easily to the QF of Wimbledon. To me personally, like Federer I dont think Nadal has been pushed and I think Del Potro will be up for it. It is their 3rd meeting on grass and previous results show it is not as easy match for Nadal as it is on clay or even Hard Court where Del Potro is favoured. There may be lingering concerns that Del Potro has not had his days rest after playing his match with Gilles Simon but to me he is the type of player that needs to consistently keep his rhythm up and whether fatique is a factor we will see. He's played plenty of long matches in the past but I feel like this is an ok spot to take an upset and the bookies seem to think it is possible too.

Roger Federer/Kevin Anderson Over 34.5 Games @ 1.925 (Pinnacle)
Stake: $100

I think this will be Roger's first real test as he has not really been pushed by players who have been easy to break. Kevin Anderson as this tournament has shown is not an easy player to break. He has played good opponents and opponents who fare well on grass. He has bought his game to Wimbledon in the past pushing Novak Djokovic (eventual champion) to five sets after winning the first two sets. He also had break points in that 5th set to win the match but failed to convert them.

Roger Federer has a knack of putting players in their place, ones that go on a nice run. And his h2h against Anderson indicates this. But I think Anderson has played better this time around and with a bit of a jolt in his serves it could be a real danger match for Federer to drop a set. Or even win a close one.