JFen31

As was widely expected, the Committee again disregarded its latest vow to incorporate advanced metrics into the seeding process. It is the opinion of this writer that Gonzaga is the most egregiously seeded team in the field (other than perhaps Butler and URI). Of course, not only should the Zags be on the 2-line, but they drew an unorthodox and difficult 13 seed. Surely Mark Few would prefer to see Marshall or Charleston, both of whom the Zags would likely boatrace. Instead, it’ll be UNCG in a 10:30 A.M. PST tip-off. 

Both teams have a 9-day layoff between games. The variable most affected by long layoffs tends to be jump shooting, a concern compounded by an early start time for the Zags and an opponent that plays a style the Zags haven’t seen all season. UNCG extends full-court pressure at a 40.4% rate, the second-highest mark in the country (#1 is Portland State). The Spartans then fall back into a high-pressure matchup zone anchored by freakish shotblocker James Dickey (10.2% block rate). 

It’s worth emphasizing that Gonzaga legitimately never sees full-court pressure, having spent the previous 2+ months exclusively against WCC competition. Among WCC teams, only Loyola Marymount utilizes any form of full-court pressure (15.5%). Everyone else is 3% or less. Can the Zags handle it? Likely. However, it’s probably not going to be seamless. I hesitate to draw a comparison here, but the only relevant point of reference in evaluating Gonzaga against full-court pressure is the December 5th matchup versus Villanova. Like UNCG, Nova deploys its zone press as more of a “nuisance” than an in-your-grill Press Virginia/40 Minutes of Hell iteration. GU struggled mightily in the Nova game, coughing up the ball 19 times on 72 possessions. Further, UNCG is the best transition defense in the country (0.792 ppp allowed), a byproduct of the zone press forcing teams to eat up clock bringing the ball up the floor. Perhaps my worries about Gonzaga’s press offense will be allayed early…or not.

There’s no such concern for the Gonzaga defense. UNCG’s offense is a mediocre outfit that relies heavily on freeing up Francis Alonso for threes via a dizzying array of screens, and then relentlessly crashing the offensive glass to clean up misses. That’s almost certainly not going to work against Gonzaga, with defensive ace Silas Melson likely to chase Alonso around for most of the game, with help from long-armed athletes like Zach Norvell and Rui Hachimura. Only 9/351 teams score 10% or more of their points directly from off-ball screens (i.e. not pick and roll or pick and pop) – UNCG is one of them, but the Zags grade out in the 89th percentile in defending off screens. Further, The Zags are exceedingly unlikely to allow second-chance points (#11/351 defensive rebound rate) and they’re more athletic around the rim than last year’s stellar interior defense.

This is a really interesting game with a bunch of intriguing matchups. Barring some incredible perimeter shooting, I’m hard-pressed to see the UNCG offense having any success against the Zags. Conversely, don’t be shocked if it takes some time for GU to acclimate to a unique and sight-unseen UNCG press/matchup zone combo.