JJJake

For the record, I should have taken Tennessee for the 1h, but instead I took Tennessee for the game -7/-105 - which is looking good at the moment. I didn’t take the over, but that also seems to be on track - at least for the moment. I just boarded a plane, so I won’t know how this game ends until long after it is over. In the meantime, go Tennessee!

Agreed; and on that point, “u” should actually be spelled “you.”

In addition, while ending a sentence with a proposition is arguably acceptable, it really is something one should strive to avoid.

Further, while not an absolute rule, firms generally prefer that you capitalize their trademarks if you are going to use them as verbs —e.g. “googling.” (Quite frankly, they would prefer you not use their trademarks as verbs in the first place since it weakens the trademark.)  Conversely, foreign words — like “gringos” — do not necessarily need to be capitalized. 

The verb “Google” generally requires an object.

Commas should be used before and after direct addresses to the reader/audience.

Don’t forget to use definite and indefinite articles before nouns when appropriate; but don’t use them when they are not required.

The first word in a sentence should be capitalized.

When two adjectives are strung together, they should be separated by a comma.  On the other hand, compound adjectives — such as “spanish speaking” — should be hyphenated (and “Spanish” should be capitalized).

Contractions —like “lets” and “dont” — require an apostrophe.

While starting a sentence with a conjunction is unusual (but not impermissible), keep in mind that a subordinate clause preceding an ordinate clause should be separated by a comma.  That goes even for sentences that do not begin with a conjunction.

Questions should end with a question mark.

Finally, while “more simple” is acceptable, many people find “simpler” to be preferable.

I could go on, but I have a match to watch.

For the record, I have Belgium ML (+130) (2 units).  But watching the match now, this little gem from an old Monty Python skit comes to mind:

"Prejudice" Host: Well now, the result of last week's competition when we asked you to find a derogatory term for the Belgians. Well, the response was enormous and we took quite a long time sorting out the winners. There were some very clever entries. Mrs. Hatred of Leicester Said 'let's not call them anything, let's just ignore them'. And a Mr. St John of Huntingdon said he couldn't think of anything more derogatory than 'Belgians'. But in the end we settled on three choices: number three . . . 'The Sprouts', sent in by Mrs. Vicious of Hastings . . . very nice; number two . . . 'The Phlegms', from Mrs. Childmolester of Worthing; but the winner was undoubtedly from Mrs. No-Supper-For-You from Norwood in Lancashire . . . 'Miserable Fat Belgian Bastards'!

Thanks Learnersrealm.  Point taken re: betting on the World Cup.  What about afterwards, when the World Cup is over?  Are there any worthwhile resources for the "day-in-day-out" soccer leagues -- like EPL, Champions League, La Liga, MLS, etc.?

Thanks, guys.  I appreciate all of the input. 

I wasn't really looking for cappers to tail, however.  Rather, I am more interested in knowing if there are any worthwhile number-crunching, stat, or trend services out there that provide date through which I can comb and come up with my my own trends and correlations. 

I was hoping that perhaps the "money ball," "sabremetrics" mindset might have caught on with soccer enthusiasts and led to services or sites that provided data sets, databases, trends, analyses, studies, etc., regarding players, teams, playing styles, refs, arenas, etc., that could inform my betting decisions. 

Put another way, I was wondering if there might be the equivalent of a Statfox Foxsheets service or a FootballOutiders.com or a KenPom.com site for soccer.

That said, I really do appreciate everyone's comments.  Thanks again.

I am interested in learning about any worthwhile resources/tools that are available - whether for a price or for free - to help make informed bets on the World Cup this year (and on soccer in general). 

I have always been a fan of StatFox's Foxsheets and Platinum Sheets for other sports.  In that vein, what sorts of resources and tools are available and worthwhile for the World Cup and soccer in general? 

Thanks.

Played $5 on 8- and 6-game parlays on:

CLE -6.5

BAL +7

BAL/HOU over 47.5

GB -4.5

WAS +7

WAS/NYG over 51

NYJ/NE over 47

OAK -5.5

Total bet of $145 on 29 separate parlays (ah, the power of combinatorials) to win up to $6,337.11. 

If just one of my 29 parlays hits, I'll make a small little profit.  If they all hit, I am going to be insufferably full of myself today.

Gilmo, good stuff.  I found your thread only a few weeks ago, but I have been following it diligently ever since, much to the benefit of my wallet.  I double check your picks against my own analysis, but rarely do I find a strong reason to disagree with you -- especially in light of your track record of success.  Keep it up. 

I do have one question:  What book do you use that lets you take parlaya with multiple bets on the same game?  I am using 5dimes, Bookmaker, Bovada, Heritage, and Legends, but none of them will let me do this.  Thanks.

For what it's worth, here are a few stats in favor of Army winning SU.  Admittely, some of these numbers are bit of a stretch or just sound like convenient data mining -  and I can find far more stats in favor of Navy winning straight up - but I thought sharing this data might help to elevate this thread to a more substantive disussion.  Feel free to weigh in - for or against.

Play On - Underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (ARMY) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.  (33-26 since 1992.) (55.9%, +42.8 units.)

ARMY is 21-14 against the money line (+21.8 Units) when they rush for 300 or more yards since 1992.  The average score was ARMY 32.5, OPPONENT 22.6

ARMY is 19-13 against the money line (+30.9 Units) when they rush for 5.5 or more yards per attempt since 1992.  The average score was ARMY 33.8, OPPONENT 24.7

ARMY is 26-18 against the money line (+44.8 Units) when they score 28 or more points since 1992.  The average score was ARMY 37.4, OPPONEN 26.1

NAVY is 2-5 against the money line (-12.2 Units) when they allow 28 or more points over the last 2 seasons.  The average score was NAVY 34.6, OPPONENT 41.6

NAVY is 5-14 against the money line (-18.2 Units) when they allow 29 to 35 points since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 28.5, OPPONENT 32.8

NAVY is 2-7 against the money line (-15.6 Units) when they gain 8 to 8.5 net passing yards/attempt since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 31.5, OPPONENT 30.9

NAVY is 2-6 against the money line (-9.2 Units) after playing a non-conference game this season.  The average score was NAVY 27.4, OPPONENT 32.8

NAVY is 8-21 against the money line (-14.8 Units) when they allow 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 25.5, OPPONENT 36.0

NAVY is 1-4 against the money line (-9.8 Units) after playing their last game on the road this season.  The average score was NAVY 31.2, OPPONENT 27.6

NAVY is 1-4 against the money line (-9.8 Units) when they commit 1 turnover this season.  The average score was NAVY 28.0, OPPONENT 32.8

NAVY is 12-19 against the money line (-16.9 Units) when they allow 400 to 450 total yards since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 24.3, OPPONENT 30.9

NAVY is 14-23 against the money line (-21.5 Units) after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 24.8, OPPONENT 28.6

NAVY is 2-6 against the money line (-9.2 Units) after playing a non-conference game this season.  The average score was NAVY 27.4, OPPONENT 32.8

NAVY is 1-4 against the money line (-9.8 Units) after playing their last game on the road this season.  The average score was NAVY 31.2, OPPONENT 27.6

NAVY is 1-4 against the money line (-8.2 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses this season.  The average score was NAVY 30.0, OPPONENT 37.8

NAVY is 14-23 against the money line (-21.5 Units) after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game since 1992.  The average score was NAVY 24.8, OPPONENT 28.6

Niumatalolo is 3-7 against the money line (-10.5 Units) after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games as the coach of NAVY.  The average score was NAVY 27.2, OPPONENT 27.1

That said, I am considering taking Army +7 or under 56 (game) or under 28.5 (half) - but I haven't pulled the trigger yet.

He didn't imply that it was his analysis.  You inferred it.  Even if the implication was somehow "implied" (I don't think it was), your inference was express.