Leapfrog

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Big card days have typically been better for me...hope that trend holds View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Let's add a few more totals Adding: Minnesota/Iowa over 145 Indiana/Wisconsin over 135 Texas Tech/Kansas State under 128 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Adding: Wichita St. -12 San Jose St. +20.5 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Quote Originally Posted by LittleLouie: Since finding this site you are one of the few that I follow, but and You probably already r aware of this "CSU starters Anton Grady (10.4 points, 6.6 rebounds per game) and Charlie Lee (9.7 ppg, 3.5 assists per game) and key reserve Sebastian Douglas (8.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg) are all questionable with the flu, according to Vikings blogger Tom Mieskoski." Yep definitely aware, but glad you're bringing it up as it's a good discussion point. I believe the way they've been playing lately (and the way Youngstown St hasn't been playing lately) is great, and expect at least one or two of those guys to go. They will still have their top three scorers as well. But no doubt, there's risk there. However, even if they're not 100% as a team, I like em at -9. View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Adding: Wisc-Milwaukee -7.5 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Tuesday at the Hoop in College Basketball BOL, wish I had gotten Iowa at -2.5 View Post \| View Thread	cjm2008	18	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Yesterday 1-1 Totals so far: Overall: 49-29-3 (62.3%) ATS: 41-26-2 (60.9%) O/U: 8-3-1 (70.8%) Today's picks: Cleveland St. -9 SDSU/SJSU Under 123 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to I just bought Kenpom, now what in College Basketball As a math Ph.D. I find Kenpom's stats quite useful. I definitely don't let it be the end all be all of my picks, and I've developed my own models, but it's certainly a useful tool if you understand how to use it. I find it much more useful especially for over/under predictions than point spread. View Post \| View Thread	dustinpmipeo	8	February 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to CUSE&MARYLAND&SAGARIN in College Basketball Yep, these predictive tools are quite useful, and trend pretty well with actual realized game results. Cheong actually keeps tally of the predicte vs. realized margin of victory for several rating systems, and they all have a line of fit close to y = x (i.e. these methods predict margins pretty well) with a standard deviation around them of about 8 to 8.5, so there is room for noise. Psychological factors, form, and injuries/suspensions might sway the movement of these predictions just a bit...but I don't see too much here to sway it away from the predicted values. People who say this should be a line of Syracuse by 6-7 should start consulting these ranking sources more. I've developed a few models that has Syracuse favored on average by 1.8 to 3.6, so it's a no play for me if betting against the spread. By the way, Sagarin himself says his "predictor" is better for predicting margins. Of his four ratings, I've validated this to be true as his best predictor by plotting his projected rankings against actual margins. So Syracuse is 87.83, Maryland 81.88. Add 3.13 to Maryland's score and subtract from Syracuse and you get a margin of victory of 2.82 for Syracuse. View Post \| View Thread	Superfectakid	9	February 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/24 in College Basketball Today's picks: E. Washington -6.5 Kansas/Oklahoma OVER 155 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	9	February 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NEW WEEK, TIME TO REBOUND in College Basketball Amen. I hear ya BOL! View Post \| View Thread	cjm2008	10	February 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Frogger's picks: 2/24 in College Basketball Man, first week posting was amazing...second week was a disaster as I went 3-6 over the weekend. Still hitting over 60% so far though. But this is a new week! I'll post my plays later...got some homework to do on these games. Totals so far: Overall: 48-28-3 (62.7%) ATS: 41-25-2 (61.8%) O/U: 7-3-1 (68.2%) View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	9	February 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/22 in College Basketball Adding for tomorrow: Creighton -13.5 I'll be out all day tomorrow, so making my one pick for tomorrow now. Like the Bluejays by about 17 here. Going big on this play. Today: 3-4 and waiting on the Hawaii outcome to see if I go 4-4 or 3-5 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	25	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Saturday feartheweb in College Basketball Lookin good fear! View Post \| View Thread	FearTheWeb	91	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/22 in College Basketball Yeah, I like GW to cover more than St. Louis, but I'm not playing it. Close to a play though. View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	25	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Saturday feartheweb in College Basketball I can't see Alabama. Mizzou destroyed them by 21 last time in Missouri, and now Alabama is missing a starter who's 3rd on the team in scoring and 2nd in rebounding. Just my 2 cents. BOL View Post \| View Thread	FearTheWeb	91	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Thoughts on these 4 tonight in College Basketball Got UCLA and Mizzou big plays View Post \| View Thread	billythepollock	4	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to East Caroline 2H PK in College Basketball View Post \| View Thread	James35	2	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Is Indiana the play? in College Basketball Play the under regardless. View Post \| View Thread	Pinkhuffy129	3	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2012 Kempom System in College Basketball Citadel failed. Rice is off to a terrible start. I guess there will be those days... View Post \| View Thread	KineProfessor	1966	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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Entries	Thread Author	Posts	Activity
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Big card days have typically been better for me...hope that trend holds View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Let's add a few more totals Adding: Minnesota/Iowa over 145 Indiana/Wisconsin over 135 Texas Tech/Kansas State under 128 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Adding: Wichita St. -12 San Jose St. +20.5 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Quote Originally Posted by LittleLouie: Since finding this site you are one of the few that I follow, but and You probably already r aware of this "CSU starters Anton Grady (10.4 points, 6.6 rebounds per game) and Charlie Lee (9.7 ppg, 3.5 assists per game) and key reserve Sebastian Douglas (8.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg) are all questionable with the flu, according to Vikings blogger Tom Mieskoski." Yep definitely aware, but glad you're bringing it up as it's a good discussion point. I believe the way they've been playing lately (and the way Youngstown St hasn't been playing lately) is great, and expect at least one or two of those guys to go. They will still have their top three scorers as well. But no doubt, there's risk there. However, even if they're not 100% as a team, I like em at -9. View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Adding: Wisc-Milwaukee -7.5 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Tuesday at the Hoop in College Basketball BOL, wish I had gotten Iowa at -2.5 View Post \| View Thread	cjm2008	18	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Frogger's picks: 2/25 in College Basketball Yesterday 1-1 Totals so far: Overall: 49-29-3 (62.3%) ATS: 41-26-2 (60.9%) O/U: 8-3-1 (70.8%) Today's picks: Cleveland St. -9 SDSU/SJSU Under 123 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	13	February 25, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to I just bought Kenpom, now what in College Basketball As a math Ph.D. I find Kenpom's stats quite useful. I definitely don't let it be the end all be all of my picks, and I've developed my own models, but it's certainly a useful tool if you understand how to use it. I find it much more useful especially for over/under predictions than point spread. View Post \| View Thread	dustinpmipeo	8	February 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to CUSE&MARYLAND&SAGARIN in College Basketball Yep, these predictive tools are quite useful, and trend pretty well with actual realized game results. Cheong actually keeps tally of the predicte vs. realized margin of victory for several rating systems, and they all have a line of fit close to y = x (i.e. these methods predict margins pretty well) with a standard deviation around them of about 8 to 8.5, so there is room for noise. Psychological factors, form, and injuries/suspensions might sway the movement of these predictions just a bit...but I don't see too much here to sway it away from the predicted values. People who say this should be a line of Syracuse by 6-7 should start consulting these ranking sources more. I've developed a few models that has Syracuse favored on average by 1.8 to 3.6, so it's a no play for me if betting against the spread. By the way, Sagarin himself says his "predictor" is better for predicting margins. Of his four ratings, I've validated this to be true as his best predictor by plotting his projected rankings against actual margins. So Syracuse is 87.83, Maryland 81.88. Add 3.13 to Maryland's score and subtract from Syracuse and you get a margin of victory of 2.82 for Syracuse. View Post \| View Thread	Superfectakid	9	February 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/24 in College Basketball Today's picks: E. Washington -6.5 Kansas/Oklahoma OVER 155 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	9	February 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to NEW WEEK, TIME TO REBOUND in College Basketball Amen. I hear ya BOL! View Post \| View Thread	cjm2008	10	February 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic Frogger's picks: 2/24 in College Basketball Man, first week posting was amazing...second week was a disaster as I went 3-6 over the weekend. Still hitting over 60% so far though. But this is a new week! I'll post my plays later...got some homework to do on these games. Totals so far: Overall: 48-28-3 (62.7%) ATS: 41-25-2 (61.8%) O/U: 7-3-1 (68.2%) View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	9	February 24, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/22 in College Basketball Adding for tomorrow: Creighton -13.5 I'll be out all day tomorrow, so making my one pick for tomorrow now. Like the Bluejays by about 17 here. Going big on this play. Today: 3-4 and waiting on the Hawaii outcome to see if I go 4-4 or 3-5 View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	25	February 23, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Saturday feartheweb in College Basketball Lookin good fear! View Post \| View Thread	FearTheWeb	91	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Frogger's picks: 2/22 in College Basketball Yeah, I like GW to cover more than St. Louis, but I'm not playing it. Close to a play though. View Post \| View Thread	Leapfrog	25	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Saturday feartheweb in College Basketball I can't see Alabama. Mizzou destroyed them by 21 last time in Missouri, and now Alabama is missing a starter who's 3rd on the team in scoring and 2nd in rebounding. Just my 2 cents. BOL View Post \| View Thread	FearTheWeb	91	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Thoughts on these 4 tonight in College Basketball Got UCLA and Mizzou big plays View Post \| View Thread	billythepollock	4	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to East Caroline 2H PK in College Basketball View Post \| View Thread	James35	2	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Is Indiana the play? in College Basketball Play the under regardless. View Post \| View Thread	Pinkhuffy129	3	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread
replied to 2012 Kempom System in College Basketball Citadel failed. Rice is off to a terrible start. I guess there will be those days... View Post \| View Thread	KineProfessor	1966	February 22, 2014 View Post \| View Thread

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