LongTermProfits

anybody know where i can find trends for soccer matchups like covers has for baseball, football, and basketball?

thanks!

hitterno24

you really thik the public would cause a two point move a half hour before game time? on a team starting an unknown QB?

doubt it...

Quote Originally Posted by Play3CardBlind:

 FYI Adam Meyer is on the Texans. 

thanks, that makes me like the titans even more!

could be tep

but there must be a TON of public money coming in on the titans to move this line this much on game day, because the QB change was known about days ago i think

5dimes now has houston -4.5

that is a full two point move off of the opener

only crossed one semi-key number of 6, as 5 isnt that important

but still an interesting move given the titans are starting a very unkown guy at QB for this game

opened at 6.5 ish and now down to 5??

middling activity, or is tenn taking a lot of money?

McAlpine

how are you able to quantify that taking the points with Dallas is a better play compared to taking the moneyline?

I am not saying that you are unable to quantify this, but I am simply asking how do you know that the moneyline on Dallas is a lower positive expected value play than the Dallas +4.5 option is?

lmakeplays

your statement is either not thought through properly or maybe you just dont know what you are talking about

if you had a brain that was operating correctly you would realize that there are other "outs" then what you see on covers.com, and some of those outs are offering dallas +6

and the widely used sportsbooks have spurs  -4.5, and covers shows that the consensus is on the spurs, not the mavs by 56%

so if you knew anything about the math involved in sports betting and positive expected value opportunities that exist in the inefficient markets that exist in the realm of sports betting, you would know what i am talking about

you have been spot on lately

and the line move agrees with you too

GL

gh

i was on florida sunday night

but all of those stats were available then - this is a monster move, and o move like this isnt ususally correlated to readily available stats and trends - but thanks for the reply

game opend georgia -3 and was bet down to 2.5 and 2 during the week

now today i see florida at a pick, florida -1, florida +1

with most "consensus" sites whowing georgia with the majority, that is a monster line move

big move initially off of a key number, and now another big move to -1, +1, pick, etc.

anybody know what is going on here?

i like it - was leaning that way as well - also found this article which talks about boston not being totally up to speed yet with perkins out...

Audible required

Imagine Tim Lincecum not being able to throw every pitch in his repertoire or Tom Brady not being able to call every play in his playbook. That’s sort of how Rondo’s feeling right now.

The past three seasons, he’s been able to call any play with complete confidence because he knew Allen, Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, and Paul Pierce would be on the same page. “With all five of us out there I can call any play I want,’’ Rondo said.

That’s the impact of Perkins’s absence.

“With a new guy — whether it’s Shaq or Jermaine [O’Neal] — it’s kind of hard for them to pick it up,’’ Rondo said. “You can’t call as many plays as you want this early in the season.’’

Rondo’s been an instructor of sorts this preseason, but with the season opener against the Heat just a day away, he’ll go in knowing that he won’t have his full palette of plays at his disposal.

“Rondo could come down last year in training camp, call a play that we ran the year before, and that group ran it and ran it with great execution,’’ Rivers said. “This year he calls a play that we’ve just put in and they still can’t run it because one guy doesn’t know it. It messes up the whole group.

“Having your starting unit intact is huge, especially in training camp. When you’re teaching the rest of the guys stuff, you’ve got a group that can show everybody else exactly how it’s run. But we’ll get it.’’

https://www.boston.com/yourtown/waltham/articles/2010/10/25/in_oneal_west_finds_key_corner_man/?page=1

how about cincy usf tonight?

sag says cincy -15

line says cincy -8

and consensus on cincy at 65%

exactly mb

i have talked to several people today that wanted to hammer oregon last night but couldn't pull the trigger because of the line being "too high"

now, those same guys have the chance to come right back tonight and hammer cincy at only -8.5

doesn't seem right...

thaks guys

just trying to see all angles on this one

medium sized play on usf  for me tonite...

So USF comes off a dreadfull offensiver performance in a prime time game, Cincy comes off a shoot out win in a prime time game, Cincy is rolling again, USF can't do anything right on offense, and the line is only Cincy -8 -8.5 ??

I just don't get this line, plus you have everyone licking their chops ready to take another "easy home favorite" winner in a prime time game after Oregon's thrashing of UCLA last night.

If this was a Saturday game I prob wouldn't even look at this line twice.  But given that this is the only game on tonight, shouldn't Cincy be like -13 or -14 for this game?

Plus I read an article that talked about USF's 3 experienced lineman being fored up for this game and wanting to come out and play hard and get the team fired up and get the offense back on track.

I am taking USF, just trying to figure out how big of a play it is going to be for me...