matelionis

1-1-1 for the week.

We are done for the regular season. We finish the year to 30-15-2 YTD (65.9%). Hope y'all had fun tailing/fading me, I had a blast. Hope everyone has a great Christmas and Happy New Year!

M-

Fucking Seattle

Honestly boys, this is most likely my last week capping the regular season. We got a nice gift from KC for the win today. 2 more to go. Good luck!

SEA +3

Too easy

The next 3 weeks are the toughest in NFL handicapping in my opinion. This is because we have teams that are eliminated and may be tanking for draft picks, players not giving 100% to prevent injury in contract years, coaching changes, and teams giving secondary players a shot to see what they can do. It almost makes the model we have been using since week 1 obsolete. Which is unfortunate. 

We have been on a downswing the past 3 weeks going 4-5. I am going with the model picks for today, mind you the data does not take into consideration of player/team incentives, whether that means they play harder trying to get into the playoffs or playing softer to prevent injury and move in the draft. Here we go:

KC -3

TB -3.5

SEA +3

Good luck this week! 

2-1 on the day. We move to 29-14-1 YTD. Good luck if you have games left for today!

NYG +17 is fucking WILD. I can't ever remember a line that large.

I am not advocating or saying to take NYG, I am just commenting. We stay with our original 3 from above.

Here's to hoping no one quits on any of the teams I picked this week! 

Ah yes, another week. Last 3 weeks have been rough. But we must push on. We are running at a smooth 67% win percentage, let's hope we can turn things around this week.

MIA +3

DEN -3.5

AZ - 5.5

Good luck this week.

1-2 this week. Moves us to 27-13-1 YTD. The sun-run is over boys.

Good luck today boys. I see a lot of threads with “MAX BET” and “GO LARGE”. Tread lightly. 

We are clearly on a downswing. 1-4-1 over the past two weeks. Let's see what happens...

BUF - 4

SEA +3

TEN -3.5

Good luck this week!

1-2 today. 

26-11-1 YTD

see y’all next week

Thank you Washington. 

Unfucking real

Unfucking real

Never fucking easy boys. 

@MRxKrazz

I am really curious as to see how this week pans out. I have kept the same model from week 1 thru this week. I don't want to change anything so I can collect the proper data and see if it is accurate. I realize we only need 52.3% to breakeven and anything over 53% is considered a win. But fuck me, we are running at 70%+ over a 12 week span. I sports bet A LOT, and never have I ran over 63% for more than 5 weeks. I usually end the season around 58% - 60% betting roughly 50 games across the NFL season. This week will really tell us if we have something. Good luck to all.

BTW, fading these picks is totally reasonable, we are sun-running.

M-

Terrible week last week (0-2-1), let's hope this one is better. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

WASH -5.5

TB -6

HOU - 4