Mitchieboi

@Chiefthechief1

 Jaylen Warren rushing + receiving over. Can get it at 47.5 @ 1.88 odds on Fanduel rn

@MIZARD

 Valid, some sites aren't even offering lines on him. The ones that are ONLY have receiving yards, not receptions.

Kayshon Boutte has receiving lines around 17.5 yards, am I missing something here?

Last week he paced NE receivers on snap share and route participation, had a nice TD catch, has had a nice upward trend on usage since he came back a couple weeks ago, and Ja'Lynn Polk seems like he might lose out on some opportunities for his play and attitude.

I have this pegged as my favorite prop of the season so far, but would love to hear some differing opinions.

Love + Gainwell combined rushing yards O20.5 (1.833 odds)

Love O22.5 rushing yards (5.75 odds)

Love O24.5 rushing yards (6.50 odds)

Packers +10.5 (1.229 odds)

@Indigo999

 What is the record for favorites that out-rush attempt their opponent in playoff games?

30% loss on the night, not too bad considering that all the plays I was heavily weighted on went against me. Would've been a nice profit if Atlanta went defense at 8.

@G8RB8

Nice plays!

I have your QB under as the second best position total at current odds (behind OL U9.5), 20% EV or so

Bowers at 10 is still decent, but could've gotten better odds at Fanduel (+210). U11.5/12.5 seem good at their respective odds too. You actually got good odds on that one, so you're probably in the 10% range.

I have the Kool-Aid under as losing 20ish percent though.

And I didn't bother with analyzing RB markets at all

@Eddy_Winslow

 Not that I don't think the Chargers like Latham, it's just that it would be a terrible, fireable pick to take him at 5. There's just so few scenarios where they end up taking Latham at pick 5 that it's not even remotely close to worth it at +250. I'd need at least +1000 to consider it.

@Eddy_Winslow

 Not gonna happen unfortunately

Biggest (relevant) overnight odds moves, Draftkings:

Increase in implied odds:

1. Michael Penix 3rd QB selected 85% more likely (but still a longshot): 76.0 -> 41.0

2. JC Latham 1st OL selected 56% more likely: 3.6 -> 2.3

3. Nabers to be a top 5 pick 34% more likely: 4.3 -> 3.2

4. Alt to be #6 pick 33% more likely: 12.0 -> 9.0

5. Patrick Paul to be selected in the 1st round 31% more likely: 5.25 -> 4.0

6. Dallas Turner to be #9 pick 30% more likely: 13.0 -> 10.0.

7. Michael Penix to be a top 10 pick 25% more likely: 6.0 -> 4.8

8. Xavier Worthy to be selected in the 1st round 18% more likely: 1.42 -> 1.2

9. JJMC to be a top 5 pick 14% more likely: 16.0 -> 14.0

Decrease in implied odds:

1. Joe Alt 1st OL selected 14% less likely: 1.29 -> 1.50

2. Rome Odunze U8.5 5% less likely: 1.71 -> 1.80

How to take advantage of this? IMO, load up on Alt 1st OL selected.

The Latham buzz is obviously driven by Daniel Jeremiah's mock. I think the changes in his and Alt's odds to be 1st OL taken is an overreaction; given the going price for Latham/Fuaga, there's very little reason for LAC to stick and pick one of them at 5 when they can get a "free" trade down and still get their guy at 9, or 11, etc. If you feel confident that TEN would still go Alt over the other linemen at 7 (you should, IMO) then Alt 1st OL is absolutely crushing right now @ 1.50/-200.

@iConsciousness

 Oh totally, definitely can't trust that his mock is extremely accurate with respect to getting picks right up and down the board.

The thing I'm more interested in is that he seems like he might be plugged in on the "important" picks. He was the only person last year who called the Texans trading up for Will Anderson Jr. The year before he correctly Pickett being the first QB off the board all the way down at 20 when people had willis going top 10.

I think he probably heard something about LAC wanting to go with a non-Alt OT with their first pick, I just believe that they would do so after trading down instead of sticking and picking at 5. It's just a waste of value; if they wanted Fuaga or Latham they are all but guaranteed to be there at 9. Why not take literally anything that's offered to you to trade down and still get who you want, even if it's only a 3rd round pick next year or something?

Ended up adding a little bit on these on fanatics, it had similar lines to fanduel for Odunze and Latham but Fuaga's was almost double.

- Odunze to be pick #5 (31.0 odds) - $20 to pay $620

- Fuaga to be pick #9 (36.0 odds) - $17.14 to pay $617.04

- Latham to be pick #9 (21.0 odds) - $30 to pay $630

Was hoping to spread $100 + the $50 free bet (never used fanatics before) against those, but was capped at those bet sizes. Ended up using the free bet and leftovers of the $100 deposit on:

- JJMC to be pick #11 (4.50 odds) - $32.86 to pay $147.87

- Dallas Turner to be pick #8 (3.25 odds) - $0 to pay $112.50

I now have 3.68 net odds across my separately-timed bets on Turner to be pick 8 lol

@boro33

 No problem man! Love following the draft, have worked on it consistently over the last few years and averaged a nice little bit of profit! Even spent the last few weeks rewriting my codebase to be more reusable for the future, and to better archive information so I can backtest more effectively.

I thought I posted about this earlier, but it looks like the odds shift might've been driven by Daniel Jeremiah's mock dropping this evening. He's considered one of the more in-the-loop analysts, and correctly predicted the Texans trade up to 3 for Will Anderson last year.

One interesting wrinkle in his mock is that he has the Chargers taking Latham at 5. I even see Latham as the favorite right now to go at #5 on betmgm! I understand the premise of them taking Latham/Fuaga (getting a right tackle), but I think they'd be morons to do it at 5 when they should have trade partners interested in Nabers/Odunze.

If Jeremiah heard something about the Chargers wanting to go Latham or Fuaga, I think a sneakily likely outcome is them trading back to 9 with Chicago for a day 2 pick, who I think would jump at the chance to lock in Odunze. I wish I could parlay Nabers/Odunze at 5 with Fuaga/Latham at 9! I might throw a buck on Latham and Fuaga at 9 regardless; 20:1 and 26:1 respectively on Fanduel right now.

I think something may have leaked somewhere related to Turner. I've been tracking the odds fluctuations relevant to the DL/EDGE markets constantly today.

This morning the DL/EDGE market seemed to be roughly equal between Turner/Latu/Murphy, but in the afternoon started skewing towards Murphy to where he was even favored by a decent margin over Turner and Latu on some sites. Just checked now and am seeing Turner down to even/minus odds with a good lead on Latu and Murphy again. 

Gonna do some searching and see if I find anything driving the odds shift. Hopefully some people got some Turner when I mentioned it earlier; the odds were high!

He was showing around 30% implied odds to go #8 this morning but is now hovering around 45-55% depending on which site you look at.

I've only placed on Fanduel and Draftkings, but I've cross referenced odds from caesars and betmgm too.

@dubz4dummyz

Agreed, unfortunately not feeling too great about turner at 8 anymore. The likeliest scenario where he goes at 8 involves JJMC falling with all 3 WRs going top 7, and no one being interested in a trade up for JJMC.

I do think Turner will be the first DL/EDGE off the board though! If Odunze falls to 8 and gets taken there, I'd expect turner to go at 9. Fanduel is showing 14:1 on that right now... That's an incredibly good price, worth throwing something at that.

@kcblitzkrieg

 I'd have to run an analysis to confirm, but my gut feeling isn't great. There are scenarios where they consider taking Bowers, but even in those scenarios he's only an option among others. I think it'll be Murphy or Odunze if they stick at 9. A trade down or up is in play too. I think 10:1 isn't enough to take a flyer on Bowers, gut check says I'd need 20 or 30:1

The Turner situation is interesting. I've been following the discourse around him closely as I'm pretty heavily leveraged on him across a few different bet classes:

1. Turner #8 pick - $230 to pay $736 @ 3.19 odds (available @ 3.5 currently)

2. Turner Top 10 pick - $146 to pay $259 @ 1.76 odds (available @ 2.0 odds currently)

3. Turner U9.5 - $68 to pay $140 @ 2.05 odds (available @ 2.30 odds currently)

4. Turner 1st DL/EDGE - $94 to pay $180 @ 1.91 odds (available @ 2.75 odds currently)

5. Joe Alt 1st OL + Turner 1st DL/EDGE + MHJ 1st WR - $570 to pay $1522 @ 2.67 odds (available @ 3.31 odds currently)

Bit of an analysis:

I think the risk of the Falcons going to a different defensive player (Murphy or Latu) instead of Turner at 8 is overblown. My understanding is that ATL has a very strong need for EDGE, but their top two DLs are serviceable. For a win-now team almost certainly making a defensive pick, they need someone who will be on the field the majority of snaps instead of on a rotation. So in my mind, that soft rules out Murphy at 8. Not impossible if they love Murphy and think he's by far BPA, but I just don't think he's the pick.

Now for Turner vs Latu:

Turner is seen as the high-risk, high-reward prospect. He's athletically gifted, produced good results in the SEC (lot of Will Anderson comps, justified or not), is comfortable dropping back frequently (which he will likely have to do a lot in ATL's scheme), and generally is thought to still have room to grow. However, that's also a knock on him; he struggles with his hands, isn't very strong in the run game, and tends to lean on a small move set relying on his athleticism and strength. He will likely need to gain some weight in the NFL.

Latu is seen as the lower-risk, lower-reward prospect. Less athletically gifted (and this shows up in his combine results, go compare them), produced good results but generally against weaker competition, and has serious injury history - a neck injury that kept him out of the game long term and was thought to have ended his career. As mentioned, Raheem Morris drops back his 3-4 OLBs at a very high rate; this is something that fits Turner much more than Latu.

Personally, I'd be shocked if Latu is the pick at 8, here's why. At least one of Odunze/JJMC will be available at 8, and should have teams willing to trade up for them. If the Falcons do like Latu better than Turner or have them similarly ranked, they should be able to find a trade partner between 11-15 so they could pick up extra picks and get one of Turner, Latu, or Verse. Turner is simply the only EDGE that is even worth considering taking in the top 9. Note that I said top 9, because I think if a trade does happen for the remainder of Odunze/JJMC, Chicago runs to the podium to pick Turner at 9 (as the first DL/EDGE) anyways.

I've already used all my money I have allocated for the draft, but if I had some left, I'd be absolutely SMASHING Turner 1st DL/EDGE taken (+175 at Fanduel rn). Falcons might not take him at 8, but Fanduel is pricing him as equally likely to be first DL/EDGE right now as Latu and Murphy, and that's ridiculous.

I do think Penix will go in the first round, but there's not enough of an edge (in my opinion, and in my model's opinion) to actually bet on it.

What types of options are available for betting on the draft at physical locations in Nevada? Are you able to get larger bets down than you might on a legal online book?