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Thanks guys. But instead of inventing creative names for me - you'd rather participate in a discussions as of this noght's Ivy League plays as they are coming to a conclusion. Butler ATS and Harvard Over with along with Parlay Double are my plays. Youre welcome to comment here and there.
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14allall41 | 252 |
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Since this is for me somewhat a scientific thread dealing with Vegas behavioral patterns, I put my 5 cents of hard eveidence:
1. Yesterday I tipped on Carolina NHL against the Capitals and despite some doubts by the other bettors - explained that among the other reasons (special teams) to back Carolina is also a Vegas factor: on the night with 2 games on single sport - and after in the first one the public favorite won, the second game has a lesser chance to go heavy public favorites' way. You all saw the result. And more so - the way it was achieved while the Capitals stayed home and sent their unwitty clones to play for them. 2.NBA plays in a week before the all star game have to be taken with great caution as the stronger teams are very unstable in that week and sort of ATS balancing takes place. I had many leans on NBA yesterday but at the end I only picked two games that seemed to me situational spot plays (Houston -3 and Dallas -5 1st half), both with strong and solid angles that any other outcome will go against Vegas, Logic and Probablity at the same time. Here too Vegas factor was a necessarry part of the decision. BOL
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14allall41 | 252 |
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BOL
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Ganda | 28 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sabonis: Yeah, MK is crushing Vegas for few days already. He should change or add to his name - Vegas Crusher! Vegas Crusher |
14allall41 | 252 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41: I am hangin' in Amsterdam comparing one coffee shop to another while MK does the job for us. All I do is tailing. I can't even watch the games since they're so late. Got up in the middle of the night for munchees and checked the scores - MK is going 4-1 tonight, went 3-2 yesterday and 3-0 night before. MK!... You da Man !... Thanks Musketeer. If I had some time right now - I would fly to Amsterdam too. Love the place. Enjoy it Brother. |
14allall41 | 252 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Wayne317: I kept an excel sheet of my picks starting from 1/22/12 to 2/6/12. I was 20-14 on sides. I picked all of my own plays, based on research, gut feeling, and what i already know. I didn't look at any other cappers picks until after mine were made in order to not talk myself out of a pick. The only problem with that is that gut feeling wears off slowly as all the possibilities seem logical and stats and team knowledge or a game knowledge is a common knowledge. So at the end you will come to a conclusion that at the beginning of the season - odds maker can make a small mistake here and there - but as the season advances - you gotta more lika check the ATS records of the teams or any other records after you have divided the teams into delivering and non delivering groups. To learn all this takes a season or two, or five. So at the end - you gotta look at two teams and the first thing you gotta seek is the spot - situational play. They are the best. After that you gotta look at the charts stating how good the team is offesively and defensilvely compared to its opponent including shoting percentage and on and on ... BOL |
14allall41 | 252 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Handicapper33: READY Ready for what? You being a half dick is not bad enough for you? |
14allall41 | 252 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Handicapper33: You may be the biggest moron on this site; everything you mentioned makes you sound so freaking stupid you shouldn't be gambling on anything but the over under on how much money you will lose and I like the over BIG. 1.It is not my fault youre a halfdick no bitch satisfying MF, you worn born that way so do not try to take your frustration from your condition on others. Learn to live it. 2.Once you start something negative with people you dont really know - be prepared to receive what you deserve. 3. If you did not like what I wrote - you could have argued in a civil manner and I would relate in the same fashion as anyone knowing me here can testify that I always treat people with utmost respect. (Unless they are a Half Dick MFs as you) 4.Once you will grow up - you will thank me for this remarks. |
14allall41 | 252 |
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Treat OKC game in Gloden State with extra caution on ATS. The line opened OKC -3.5, and after an early money was poured on OKC - the line moved to.... -2.5. RLM? The problem with that is the previous game on 27th of January won by OKC 120-109 in GS,- the line was OKC -4.5, so after that game under the same circumstances the line should have opened OKC -6.5 at the least. So, I haven't decided yet if Vegas is telling us something and winking in process or they're trying to double-do us by winking to somebody else.
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14allall41 | 252 |
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The strategy of betting certain percentage of the bakroll you can afford to lose is designed by "experts" who tell you from the beginning you're gonna lose that money. You better set yourself a goal how much you want to win and bet accordingly. Money managment is not about bankrolls and calculating how much bets you can lose before running out of money - but about playing same amount of money on Spread or Totals and goal of hitting over 53% and up of your bets. With 60% you're a king. Discipline is the most important here, not chasing and shit like that. For a better understanding; https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101249743
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yehielNBA | 3 |
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14allall41 | 252 |
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Something about Vegas' Behavioral Sciences I'd like to share:
2day ago there were 3 games that the lines were what we cal a classic "trap lines". 1.Atlanta opening line at home against Memphis was -4.5 and an early money on Memphis drove it to -4 ans public joe moved it to -5.5. Of course he did - waking up and seing Atlanata at home against Memphis who was blown out at every place - seemed like a gift. I wrote to stay away since it is hard to put money on Undrdog because he might not cover because of an ability regardless of an "early money" and all the help from environment. - We all saw how Grizzlies destroyed Atlanta. 2. NY Knicks opened at +3.5 againsat Chicago - an unbelievably low handicap nad there too an"early money moved it to +3 and public joe got it back to Bulls -4 and later to -4.5. We all saw how it has ended exactly in 3 point difference, 3.Same story was with Portland in Sacramento. Same sequences and the same outcome. I warned against all those games at my site and tipped on Portland totals only which has won. Those are Thursdays fro you which I call "Expect the Unexpected Thursdays. BOL
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14allall41 | 252 |
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Quote Originally Posted by capskip: YTD 0-0-0 all plays 2 units ea. BOLTA!!!!!!!!! Washington +8.5 Orlando +7.5 Detroit +7 Are we touring this year?
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capskip | 7 |
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This thread is not about MK or his site. I am not interested in people speaking out for me in any form. Please! If you like my site - go there and comment there. This thread is all about 1. Is it possible to turn Sports Betting into a steady source of income? 2. If yes, in what ways?.
Leave me out of it!!! 14allall41, I again compliment you on your thread and if you had the sense to touch such important sunject - please carry on ands manage it for the benefit of everyone without turning it into a cult. I do not appreciate making me the main subject here as it does not give any creditibility to the subject it is supposed to be about.
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14allall41 | 252 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CMP: MK - couldn't agree more about looking for the patterns. Two things that have been working for me in the NBA 1) Look at all the lines for the day and choose the one that immediately sticks out as a strange line - e.g. a good team getting points to a mediocre one (e.g. Port +3.5 vs GS), a shit team being favoured by -3 or more (e.g. Wash -7 vs Cha), or in today's game a team (Orlando) getting -9.5 when they were beaten by that same team by 31 points a few nights ago. I feel these games are where the bookies are "tipping their hat" as to what the play is. It is incredibly hard to pull the trigger on these plays sometimes, because they just "feel" like the wrong play - and sometimes they are! - but I find they hit consistently at 55% or better. Note: I won't play Orlando today because I also make it a rule to pretty much never play games when there are only 2 on the board - too many fishy results on these days. 2) Look at the last game/s of the day, and establish which is most likely the play people are chasing on - and play the opposite. Obviously this is a "vague" rule, but it's amazing how often you could sit down with someone - with no emotion - look at a line and establish what is likely the "chase" play. It seems in the NBA to every other night be a Lakers game, and what I've found very, very profitable is to pick your spots to be on the Over/Under in these games - particularly in the 2H. I haven't yet taken the time to do a historical ATS on basic "flipping" what happened in the 1H - i.e. high scoring, go under 2H, and vice versa - but I know that has been very profitable. Great and absolutely viable observations that clearly define the patterns of betting on American Sports and especially on NBA. Great work CMP. Please keep bringing your input here and everywhere brother bettors are present ion masses. |
14allall41 | 252 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jpr24628: Fade Brandon Lang LOL, who is brandon lang - never heard of him |
14allall41 | 252 |
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Quote Originally Posted by tahrir2011: This thread is getting better and better with each day. Great input MK. Thanks for sharing Brada! It would be great if each of us wrote here what strategy he uses to bet. Sometimes, when you have to write it down, you're actually are developing the strategy that if successful and you also follow it - can be the difference between spontaneous betting that usually ends up as losing and the well organized one that can bring profitable results. |
14allall41 | 252 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 14allall41: MK, your input on the subject of Capping is very much appreciated. Personally - I take all your notes on the subject and one day might use all those to cap myself. But, right now - the only thing I do is waiting until you sound a tweet and get your pick. It is much easier and for sure much profitable than capping by myself. Thanks for sharing your picks and great strategic info about capping. |
14allall41 | 252 |
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He fouled so my Over 186.5 would go thru... Dont you already know?
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LarryWayne10 | 48 |
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Another trend I want you to pay attention to - if we already open the subject - is the what happened in a GS, Memphis Portland threesome relations. GS loses in a very strange way to Memphis, Only to beat the Blazers and cover who beat the Memphis and covered in between GS two games. Those kind of things I mark on a schedule and looking carefully to see if the trend is beginning. To really beat the books on a long terms - you have to learn the pattern. Not that I think that I discovered something new - but thought you might like to know if we already are at the right Thread for this kind of the conversation. BOL
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14allall41 | 252 |
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