MLBFan

nice info Perfect 1313.


Another thing...

I'm currently making correlations between all available stats in baseball

This way I'm trying to find:

• the importance of every stat in regards of winning a baseball game the importance of every offensive stat in regards of scoring a run
• the importance of starting pitchers in regards of wins and runs against
• the importance of relief pitchers in regards to wins and runs against,...

makes a lot of sense. and when do you decide to hop off the winning or loosing train

If you have to cap a baseball game. Would you say tthe last 7 days or sth like that are equally important than the full season stats. Or more... or less?

What are your opinions?

tnx m8. Great advice!

Hi everyone, I'm having huge problems picking winners last couple of weeks... Maybe I gave waaaay to much attention to starting pitchers and waaaay to little to relievers...

SO this is why I try to figure sth out based on a whole bunch of stats.

I made a ranking system for the offense based on Runs/Plate app., BB/K, Batting Average, Slugging%, wOBA. Giving me a certain % for every team

Next I made a similar ranking for relievers based on IP/Game, K/BB, HR/9, Batting average against, WHIP, ERA, FIP, XFIP and SIERA

The last thing i did was a starting pitching ranking for today with about the same stats as the relievers.

Oh yes... I only used stats of last 5 games for Starting pitchers, Last 14 days for relievers and last 7 for offenses. As I believe stats from the start of the season doesn't matter anymore today.

This is an example how i did it for the Nationals - Rockies game:

Washington vs Colorado
Haren: 50.85% - Chacin: 32.48%
Wash Off.: 46.67% - Col off.: 37.33%
Wash BP: 74.81% - Col BP: 24.81%

Washington Average%: 57.44% - Colorado Average: 31.54%
So a 25.9% edge for Washington

What do you guys think. IF you want I can post these %'s for every game

what an awful last 2 weeks i'm having. Can't seem to pick the winning teams... Even Houston is winning a nice amount of games lately...

FINALLY!

source: https://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130621&content_id=51342078&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

wtf 3 times to 3th with less than 2 outs and not a single run ...

WOOOW MONTERO

just a valverde type of closer...

agree

Both have great offenses. The blue jays are really starting to act like a team and hit the ball well.

I think rogers is pitching above his standards and will come down to earth against a very solid colorado team.

what do you guys think.

I'm leaning towards early offense and a run in the first inning

Will keep a record too:
( 9-7 +19.65$ )

SU Picks: +15.35$

Boston 18.4$ to win 16.6$ WIN
Chicago C 15.3$ to win 16.6$ WIN
Tampa Bay 27.7$ to win 16.6$ WIN
St Louis 31.5$ to win 16.6$ WIN
Chicago WS 21.6$ to win 16.6$ LOSE
Detroit 26.6$ to win 16.6$ LOSE
Colorado 23.9 to win 16.6$ WIN
ADDING OAKLAND 19.4$ to win 16.6$ LOSE

Run Line Picks: +21.6$

San Francisco +1.5 21.3$ to win 16.6$ WIN
Boston -1.5 11.6$ to win 16.6$ LOSE
Tampa Bay -1.5 12.8$ to win 16.6$ WIN
St Louis -1.5 19.4$ to win 16.6$ WIN
Detroit -1.5 16.6$ to win 16.6$ LOSE

O/U Picks: -17.3$

CIN/MIL O8.5 15.8$ to win 16.6$ LOSE
NYY/LAA O8.5 18.1$ to win 16.6$ LOSE
ARI/SD O8 to win 16.6$ WIN

TOTAL FOR THE DAY: +19.65$

1ST INNING YES OR NO RUN STATS

Boston @ Baltimore
Boston: 31.88% Scored in 1st / 0.78 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Baltimore: 32.35% Scored in 1st / 0.71 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 1.49 Runs in first inning

Washington @ Cleveland
Washington: 22.73% Scored in 1st / 0.38 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Cleveland: 31.82% Scored in 1st / 0.62 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 1 Runs in first inning

Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit: 29.23% Scored in 1st / 0.45 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Minnesota: 26.56% Scored in 1st / 0.45 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 0.9 Runs in first inning

LAD @ Pittsburgh
LAD: 36.36% Scored in 1st / 0.50 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Pittsburgh: 31.34% Scored in 1st / 0.39 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 0.89 Runs in first inning

KC @ Tampa Bay
KC: 23.08% Scored in 1st / 0.38 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Tampa Bay: 32.84% Scored in 1st / 0.64 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 1.02 Runs in first inning

SEA @ OAK
SEA: 29.41% Scored in 1st / 0.59 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
OAK: 21.74% Scored in 1st / 0.46 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 1.05 Runs in first inning

PHI @ COL
PHI: 25% Scored in 1st / 0.57 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
COL: 41.18% Scored in 1st / 0.69 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 1.26 Runs in first inning

NYY @ LAA
NYY: 23.88% Scored in 1st / 0.33 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
LAA: 28.36% Scored in 1st / 0.66 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 0.99 Runs in first inning

TOR @ TEX
TOR: 33.33% Scored in 1st / 0.62 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
TEX: 19.40% Scored in 1st / 0.27 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 0.89 Runs in first inning

STL @ MIA
STL: 31.34% Scored in 1st / 0.58 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
MIA: 22.73% Scored in 1st / 0.39 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 0.97 Runs in first inning

SF @ ATL
SF: 30.30% Scored in 1st / 0.42 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
ATL: 31.34% Scored in 1st / 0.57 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 0.99 Runs in first inning

CHC @ NYM
CHC: 38.46% Scored in 1st / 0.55 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
NYM: 20.97% Scored in 1st / 0.42 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 0.97 Runs in first inning

MIL @ CIN
MIL: 27.27% Scored in 1st / 0.64 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
CIN: 32.35% Scored in 1st / 0.57 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 1.21 Runs in first inning

CHWS @ HOU
CHWS: 28.13% Scored in 1st / 0.44 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
HOU: 23.53% Scored in 1st / 0.47 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 0.91 Runs in first inning

ARI @ SD
ARI: 32.84% Scored in 1st / 0.57 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
SD: 35.82% Scored in 1st / 0.57 Runs in 1st Inning on avg
Total combined: 1.14  Runs in first inning

That will do for today! I wish you all the best of luck with these stats! Pls let me know your picks , insights, toughts about the stats,...

Seattle  @  Oakland

Hernandez (R)
10.02 K/9 - 2.2 BB/9 - 0.72 HR/9 - 0.248 BAA - 1.19 WHIP - 2.41 XFIP - 2.69 SIERA

Griffin (R)
7.48 K/9 - 2.05 BB/9 - 1.41 HR/9 - 0.230 BAA - 1.12 WHIP - 4.11 XFIP - 3.94 SIERA

Seattle Offense vs Righties
7.83 BB% - 22.71 K% - 0.229 BA - 0.294 OBP - 0.358 SLG - 0.288 wOBA

Oakland Offense vs Righties
9.29 BB% - 20.07 K% - 0.229 BA - 0.304 OBP - 0.359 SLG - 0.294 wOBA

Seattle BP
9.03 K/9 - 4.74 BB/9 - 0.41 HR/9 - 0.264 BAA - 1.55 WHIP - 4.03 XFIP - 3.8 SIERA

Oakland BP:
8.28 K/9 -2.95BB/9 - 0.39 HR/9 - 0.228 BAA - 1.20 WHIP - 3.97 XFIP - 3.5 SIERA

SP edge: maybe a shocker but Griffin is showing some nice stats. King Felix does strike out more. But think the offense will be key and the bp
Offensive edge: Oakland ( small edge )
BP edge: Oakland


Lean Oakland

Still have to post a couple of matchups BUT my picks for today:

Will keep a record too:
( 0-0 +0$ )

SU Picks:

Boston 18.4$ to win 16.6$
Chicago C 15.3$ to win 16.6$
Tampa Bay 27.7$ to win 16.6$
St Louis 31.5$ to win 16.6$
Chicago WS 21.6$ to win 16.6$
Detroit 26.6$ to win 16.6$
Colorado 23.9 to win 16.6$

Run Line Picks:

San Francisco +1.5 21.3$ to win 16.6$
Boston -1.5 11.6$ to win 16.6$
Tampa Bay -1.5 12.8$ to win 16.6$
St Louis -1.5 19.4$ to win 16.6$
Detroit -1.5 16.6$ to win 16.6$

O/U Picks:

CIN/MIL O8.5 15.8$ to win 16.6$
NYY/LAA O8.5 18.1$ to win 16.6$
ARI/SD O8 to win 16.6$

Arizona @ San Diego

Miley (L)
6.46 K/9 -2.45 BB/9 - 1.36 HR/9 - 0.313 BAA - 1.52 WHIP - 3.73 XFIP - 3.75 SIERA

Richard( L)
4.81 K/9 - 2.75 BB/9 - 2.83 HR/9 - 0.289 BAA - 1.50 WHIP - 4.37XFIP - 4.57 SIERA

Arizona Offense vs Lefties
8.84 BB% - 18.71K% - 0.255 BA - 0.327 OBP - 0.369 SLG - 0.306 wOBA

San Diego Offense vs Lefties
7.9 BB% - 19.54 K% - 0.263 BA - 0.328 OBP - 0.436 SLG - 0.333 wOBA

Arizona BP
7.71 K/9 - 3.17 BB/9 - 1.09 HR/9 - 0.230 BAA - 1.22 WHIP - 4.18 XFIP - 3.63 SIERA

San Diego BP:
7.78 K/9 - 1.69 BB/9 - 1.24 HR/9 - 0.255 BAA - 1.17 WHIP - 3.16 XFIP - 2.98 SIERA

SP edge: Even ( both crap )
Offensive edge: San Diego ( but small edge only )
BP edge: even


Lean OVER!!