Mmm_Donut

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replied to The Spurs -4 tomorrow @ Chicago in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by fel2718: Golden State seemed like an easy pick 2 nights ago at -2 againt the Kings, didn't it? Not at all, I addressed that in my write-up. I still get the shivers thinking about that line. A GS team that had just barely escaped with a 3-point home win over Memphis going into Arco Arena where the Kings had been playing inspired basketball lately, winning 3 in a row over squads with better than .500 records, including the Lakers... View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	20	March 20, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The Spurs -4 tomorrow @ Chicago in NBA Betting The line's already up to -4.5 BTW. Dammit I knew I should've locked it in already. View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	20	March 20, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The Spurs -4 tomorrow @ Chicago in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by darientran: Do you remember the Utah vs Chicago(home)??? setup game. Everyone got killed Well, you gotta realize something about Utah. I've said it once, twice, I'll say it again. Utah is pound-for-pound the worst road team in the league, and nothing surprises me when it comes to them playing away from home. You look at their recent road trip and you'll see an 18 point win over Boston along with losses to New Jersey and Chicago. It seems that external motivation is a major factor for that squad. They were going into that game on a 5-game winning streak which included victories over Dallas, Phoenix and Denver so it's clear that they were looking past Chicago. You also have to look at the fact Utah is basically locked into a top 4 playoff spot as the Northwest division leader and the closest team to them is a Denver squad that's slipping in the standings everyday. San Antonio is not in that situation. Losers of 6 of their last 7 and freefalling in the standings, they can't afford to lose winnable games. As I mentioned, the last time they lost to a non-playoff contender was two months ago. And though they're going through a bad stretch right, one thing they've always been with Tim Duncan is consistent. The last time that the Spurs lost 5 straight games was during the 1996-97 season, the season they went 20-62 and right before they drafted Duncan. Unlike a team like Utah, the Spurs come through when they're supposed to and I don't see a team like Chicago being the ones to make history against San Antonio. View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	20	March 20, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The Spurs -4 tomorrow @ Chicago in NBA Betting To start things off, this line doesn't scare me one bit. Over 90% of the money coming in on the Spurs, doesn't matter. This is practically the same exact situation the Suns were in a couple weeks back and I feel the same way I did back when I made this thread. One of the West's elite teams falls from grace after a tough stretch against other top squads, gets two days off to think about it and work on things, and then goes on the road and gets a short line against a team that has a slim chance at a playoff spot. Come on now. In the situational spot I made the thread about, Suns came out firing and took a 19 point halftime lead and ended up winning and covering. I took them then and I took them again on Tuesday night as four point road faves in their rematch with Portland. Again, they won and covered, this time by double digits. The public was all over the Suns' balls both times, but you know what? The situation was right to take them so it didn't matter what casual bettors thought when they placed their bets. And you couldn't take San Antonio because of "the way they're playing"? Surely it's not the Spurs at their best but look at who they've lost to. They're 1-6 in their last 7 and those 7 losses were to Detroit, New Orleans, Phoenix, Denver, and a red hot Philadelphia squad all on the ROAD and to Boston at home. And what exacerbated all of that is the lack of rest. This is literally the busiest month in regards to number of fames in the Spurs franchise's history. They've already played 11 games this month which included three back-to-back spots and are scheduled for 18 games total in March. Ginobli has been banged up with a deep thigh bruise, Parker is just coming back from his injury, Udoka's been trying to get back and this is an OLD Spurs squad. This is the first time they've had two days rest this month and this is the first time getting to face a non-playoff team in the past two weeks. They haven't lost to a non-playoff team since January where they headed into Seattle on the second night of a back-to-back and lost by 3. Coincidentally, they proceeded to win 15 of their next 16 games including 11 in a row. Has everyone forgotten that streak ended just recently? Finally, look at the line. 4, that magic number. Whenever I see a road team favored by 4, I love it. That means Vegas is expecting that team to win and cover. Let me tell you something about the 4. The only difference between the number 3 and the number 4 is just a measly point, right? WRONG. It's also the difference between a one-possession game and a two-possession game. That little point is the difference between road teams simply "keeping it close" and road teams straight up "winning decisively". More often than not, that will be the case. Prime example, Golden State being -2 at Sacramento the other day. That line scared the shit outta me. But Phoenix being -4 at Portland looked beautiful. Look at today, Jersey was 2.5 - 3 point home dogs against Atlanta and won straight up. Look at Charlotte being 3 point road chalk at Memphis on Monday and then losing by double digits. It's something I look out for. Anyway...yeah. San Antonio wins SU. View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	20	March 20, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to How do you profit gambling NBA? in NBA Betting Maybe this can help. View Post \| View Thread	laziefo0	15	March 20, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The SECRET to winning 15 of the last 16 days in the NBA... in NBA Betting My streak is now 20 winning days out of the last 22 days. But I'm really bringing this back up to make sure anybody who's having trouble winning can read the post I made and benefit from it. Quote Originally Posted by Mmm_Donut: What I'm talking about, people, is ROUTINE. Set long-term goals and commit yourself to them. Be serious about it but have fun as well. While you have to come to terms that this thing is a daily grind, realize that all that hard work is going to pay off in the end as long as you stick to your principles. Write on a piece of paper what your goals are realistically for each month, then also chart up what the weekly/daily goals would be based on that figure, then set limits for yourself on how much money you can wager and/or how many wagers you can place per day/week. Stick that paper up on the wall near your computer. Also, make a list of which websites that you should check out everyday, which handicappers you should check out everyday (if applicable) and by what time you should have already decided on your picks and placed your wagers. Get a calendar and put a single slash through every day of the month, and at the end of every day, write on the calendar how much you made/lost that day and then cross the day off. You can track just where you are in terms of your goals and you can literally see the progress you're making everyday. Sports betting should be just like a exercise regimen: not just a temporary fix, but a long-term commitment to the betterment of your lifestyle. I have a heavy lifting session tomorrow, gotta get swole. View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	16	March 20, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to The Spurs -4 tomorrow @ Chicago in NBA Betting Too funny. I'm gonna do a half-assed capping of the game right now just to humor the linesmakers. View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	20	March 20, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to TO THE BANK CHAR + 5 AND NO OVER 187 in NBA Betting Wow. This streak is getting pretty epic. Your guys must've gotten fat and lazy off their initial winnings because this is unacceptable. Get rid of them at least temporarily until they get back on track. View Post \| View Thread	pucku27	63	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Does anyone else Flip Saunders looks like a faerie on the sidelines? in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by Mmm_Donut: 301 Will Flip Saunders have a look of constipation on his face while having his arms folded in an "L" position tonight? Yes -12900 No + 11600 Winner! Keep it up Flip, you're making me rich every time you take court! View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	12	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to how are people not all over detroit? in NBA Betting FYI: "Everyone" was all over Detroit. Guess what happened? View Post \| View Thread	philschnaars	39	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Wednesday Style ----- A Pick in NBA Betting Hey, you've had some great analysis and write-ups so far. I knew you were off on this one from the start but you've got a good head on your shoulders. Keep it up and help these nincompoops on this forum make some money. View Post \| View Thread	lawstyle	102	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to pistons.. terrible in NBA Betting I sense a little animosity here. View Post \| View Thread	aaironworks	7	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Kobe needs to lift some weights. in NBA Betting You heard that, Kobe? Tayshaun said Lebron was his most difficult defensive assignment... and that it wasn't even close. You gonna take that? View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	7	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Anyone else regret not emptying their whole account on Tor 2nd Half Under? in NBA Betting Disciplined money management is something you should never regret. View Post \| View Thread	TheOmegaSupreme	4	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
created a topic The Spurs -4 tomorrow @ Chicago in NBA Betting This line... View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	20	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Why is Pat Riley still even freaking coaching? in NBA Betting Second biggest joke in the NBA next to Isiah Thomas. View Post \| View Thread	jerzeebook	3	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to my pod DONT MISS OUT in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by philschnaars: before mmm donut comes in here and hates on me for saying that View Post \| View Thread	vegashighroller	5	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Does anyone else Flip Saunders looks like a faerie on the sidelines? in NBA Betting Link 1 Link 2 Link 3 Link 4 301 Will Flip Saunders have a look of constipation on his face while having his arms folded in an "L" position tonight? Yes -12900 No + 11600 View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	12	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Does anyone else Flip Saunders looks like a faerie on the sidelines? in NBA Betting Can't wait to see a confused looking Flip dripping beads of sweat trying to figure out how to stop LBJ for the first time in his career. View Post \| View Thread	Mmm_Donut	12	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread
replied to Wednesday Style ----- A Pick in NBA Betting Quote Originally Posted by lawstyle: Nobody here is a "wannabe-sharp"... Just gambler's trying to figure out the best bet, relax man I never said the public was all over the Cavs. The line is not moving in the other direction. It opened up at -1 Cavs and is now at 0 at some books and -1.5 at others. Sportsinsights is also not an accurate representation of money played. Good luck 99% of sports bettors are squares and 99% of sports bettors who don't believe they're a square are wannabe-sharps. Wasn't referring to you specifically. I've just been reading a whole lot of misinformation and conjecture around the forum about how the line has been set to lure in Cleveland backers, when it's the complete opposite. All these people talking about "public this, public that" are part of the public themselves and don't even know it. View Post \| View Thread	lawstyle	102	March 19, 2008 View Post \| View Thread

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