MoMoney2

@Bettingtips010

 Where do you get this good of odds on your plays? My book, and everything that I am seeing on other books, isn't even CLOSE to these lines. For example you have S. Barnes O-6.5 reb at (1.69 or -145 odds), I am seeing this play at (1.39 or -256) Those odds couldn't be any further off. If you are really getting that good of odds I would love to know where so I can get in on some of that. 

@Bettingtips010

 I would love to see the odds that you are getting these picks at. Any chance that you could add that to your plays? Keep up the good work this season!

Okay back for another week in Hawaii with the Sony Open. We couldn't have any more of a different course this week than we did last week. Last week was all about grip it and rip it and watch the ball roll down the fairway with those huge elevation changes. This week is all about ball striking and putting. Typically not a course the bombers win. Here is the recap from my picks last week:

Record: 4-2 (+1.6 units) Not many plays with such a limited field. 

Sony Open Plays: 

Full Tournament Plays:

NeSmith (+100) over Hughes

Harman (-120) over Howell

Straka (-120) over Cink

Im (-119) over Matsuyama

1st Round Plays:

Munoz (-125) over Reavie

Snedeker (-130) over Putnam

If anyone would like details as to why I am making these plays just let me know. Will go in depth for anyone that would like it. 

Best of luck! 

Sacker -

I was lucky enough to play your Smith vs Ancer  so matchup so I picked up another win with that one. I was lucky with the Sergio pick but it feels like just as many times I have a guy bogey the final hole to give me a loss, so I will take the good breaks when I can get them. 

I am not seeing ANYTHING that I like for today. I am going to follow my new year betting resolution and be disciplined by not taking making a play just to have some action, lol. I will wait to see if I can find something that I like better tomorrow. If you decide to make that Kokrak play, best of luck. I will post again tomorrow morning if I see something for the final round.  

Round 2 Plays:

Swafford (+100) over Thompson

Palmer (-140) over N. Taylor

Garcia (-145) over Streb

Sorry I don't have time to list why I like these plays. 

@sacker17

 Like the plays! I have a few posted on my thread too, curious what you think. 

@sacker17

Love this, and how true! He is one of the most talented guys out there but by far the WORST on Sunday when in contention. 

@sacker17

Hopefully with the Werenski line going up like it that indicates that I am on the correct side. The -120 that I got on that match up looks pretty good now. I do like Matsuyama and his record here is excellent. Like you said it is so hard to know how guys will come out after a month plus off for some of these guys. I saw an article that said Finau is taking a bit of the Bryson approach and has hit the weights hard and added more distance to his game. Added distance can be a bit asset at this course so I just want to sit back and see how he looks with my own eyes before I bet against him. 

Next week is a tough betting week too with some new guys teeing it up for the first time on tour. It will take a few weeks to hopefully find more volume with picks. 

Good luck with Matsu this week, I will be rooting for him!

First Round Matches:

Cink (-140) over Streb (official play)

I have Cink as a much higher favorite than the -140 line would indicate so I am going to take this as a value play. I have Cink ranked higher in just about every category that I looked at. Heck Vegas even has Cink listed as a much higher favorite for the first round leader. I think for the first round Cink will get it done in this matchup. 

Palmer (+109) over Champ (I think Champ will get bet up more so I expect this line to create even more value, waiting)

Palmer has been really good over the last year, and the numbers support this. While I like Champ and his length as this course, I just see a lot of value in Palmer. If I bet this it would only be a half unit bet, but worth keeping an eye on to see if we can get even more value. 

I will check back in the morning to see if any of these potential plays have moved to a more favorable line. 

Best of luck to you all!

@Nebr-44

 I LOVE JT but I wouldn't necessarily make this play based off of Rahm and his new clubs. I read that Rahm shot a 59 with this new set of clubs just last week. I always think this kind of thing is a bit over rated. JT does have a great course history at this course and comes in playing well, I like it. 

Best of luck with the pick!

After a short few weeks the PGA Tour returns with the Tournament of Champions from Maui. This is one of my favorite tournament of the year as I have been lucky enough to play this course and I was at the tournament 2 years ago when Xander Scauffele shot an amazing 62 on the final day to come from behind and beat Gary Woodland. I don't however love this tournament from a betting standpoint. With such few golfers in the field there is typically very few head to head match ups that standout to me, and this year is no exception. I only see a few full tournament match ups that I like, hopefully there will be a few more round by round match up I can get in on. I have had some past success in betting outright winners in this event so I might take a few shots at this to see if I can hit a nice winner. 

I had a really good betting year last year and hope continue that into the new year. I am going to start recording keeping over and will post that each week with the new plays. 

Season: 0-0-0

Plays:

Cam Smith (-160) over Makenzie Hughes (Official Play)

I typically don't ever play match ups with this much juice but Cam is just so much better than Hughes. Hughes makes his living putting. These greens are HUGE with lots of slope. You better stick it close to the pin to have a good chance at birdie. Proximity to the hole is a big deal this week and Cam Smith ranks #1 for me in this field in a proximity blend that I put together while Hughes ranks dead last. I see Smith having 12-15 foot birdie putts while Hughes will be just hoping to 2 putt for his par. There are also some short par 4 on this course that will leave just a flip of the wedge into the green. Smith is much better than Hughes in short par 4's between 350-400 yards, so again I see more birdie opportunities for Smith here as well. 

Reed (-155) over Scheffler (monitoring to see if line drops)

Reed has great history at this tournament (2, 25, 6, 2, 1, 16) while Scottie Scheffler has never played this course. Scheffler has length off the tee which will help, and he can make birdies in bunches, but prior knowledge is important here. There hasn't been a first time winner in this event in recent history to my knowledge and experience usually pays off. The wind is going to be up on Thursday and I am not sure how well Scheffler will deal with that. I don't love this play at the current line, so I will be waiting to see if I can get it with less juice. 

Werenski (-120) over Gay (official play)

This is just a case of who is worse, and I think that is Brian Gay. Gay has missed the cut in 5 of his last 7 events (somehow got a victory in 1 of those made cuts), while Werenski has made the cut in 5 of his last 8 events. In my model Brian Gay is ranked dead last in this field. While Werenski isn't a whole lot better, I am banking that Gay is just going to be worse. 

Best of luck to all of you this first week. Let me know which plays you like/dislike. If there are any that you are liking let me know that too. I would love to hear your reasons for liking a different match up. 

Cheers 

Great plays Sacker! I tailed on 4 of the plays and won a little extra money this past week. Keep up the great work, hope to chat a bit more as the tour starts back up in Hawaii in a few weeks. 

Enjoy the holidays!

@sacker17

 Good stuff guys. I am going to fire at a few of those picks, like what I am reading. These will be my first ever bets on the European Tour, maybe something I need to get into more. 

Good luck guys!

@kerryb

 I don't dive into European Tournaments as of now. It takes me way to long to do PGA events and once they get going again in Jan. it is nearly impossible for me to do. I will take a look and follow some of your plays for this week in Dubai. 

@MoMoney2

 Full updated record for the tournament:

Full Tourney Plays: 2-1-2 (+1 unit)

1st Round Plays: 5-2 (+2.79 units)

2nd Round Plays: 4-1-2 (+2.65 units)

3rd Round Plays: 0-3-2 (-3.07 units) OUCH!

4th Round Plays: NONE

TOTAL: 11-7-6 (+3.37 units) 

Could have been a REALLY nice week but instead it turns into an okay week. I will never complain with a positive week but that could have been so much better. I plan to do some research and attempt to plan to really dig into the first 3 tournaments. I was at the tournament of champions 2 years ago and have played that course myself so I have a pretty good idea of what kind of players I will be targeting in that one, only problems is there are usually such limited plays since there is only about 30 guys playing. I should have a bunch of plays for the Sony Open week 2, but will likely back off in week 3 with the American Express as that is played over 3 courses, I hate that! If any of you want to chat about research or strategy over our small break just reach out to me I would love to discuss courses and strategy. 

Mo Money

@sacker17

 Where did you find stats without shot tracker? 

Good work on the pick today, looks like it should hold up. 

Yes that is me. Fantasy league hosted by Andy and KJ? My real name is Adam. I remember you too, always near the top of the leaderboard  and love to make H2H bets with Andy correct? Their podcast is what really got me into H2H betting and I have been building/tweaking a system to help me make those picks for about 2 years now. Good to see you in here. 

@fightingillini

 I am glad that you mentioned that. How a guy plays at a certain event is a BIG deal. Exactly as you said, there are guys all the time that just show up for certain event regardless of how they are currently playing. I also factor in recent form. Typically after I have added up all of the stats that I am interested in for a tournament then I factor in recent form and course history into that. 

Thanks for bringing that up, I forgot to mention that. 

@kerryb

I wish I had a program to plug everything into but I am not nearly that tech savvy. I use a computer to tally up the numbers, but I have to input the initial numbers into system first. Yes, I start fresh each week with each new tournament. During the next month I am going to try to lay out everything for the first 4 tournaments of the new year so that all I have to do it plug in the field when it is released. I also use the "eye test" after watching guys play too. I don't want anyone to think that my plays are solely based off the numbers. There are many times when my model says to play a certain guy but after watching the first few rounds I will fade him.

I would be happy to work with you but I am not sure how much extra time I have to look at your 3 ball match ups. My book doesn't always offer 3 balls so I really haven't dug into them. What book do you use if you don't mind me asking? I am on the West coast, are you in the same time zone? I do most of my work at night as often the tourney starts at 4:00 am my time so I rarely do any work in the morning, might be different for you based on where you are. 

Let me know what you are thinking, always happy to discuss plays. 

@kerryb

 Sure I will do my best to explain where I start and let me know what questions that you have. I begin trying to create a model of the course itself. I try to look at each hole and analyze how long the hole is, is it a lay up? Does it have a tight fairway? Are there bunkers and do they even matter or will most players just bomb over them? What is the green like? Small? Large? Different tiers to it? Fast? Slow? I also look at the holes as a group too. How many par 3's, par 4's, and par 5's? Can the par 5's be reached in 2? Can ALL players reach them in 2 or just the longer hitters? Are there par 4 that are short and it will just be a wedge fest because most guys will only leave themselves around 100 yards out? Are the greens small like at Pebble Beach where in order to score you better hit a high percentage of GIR or are greens huge like the Plantation course in Maui for the Tournament of Champions where GIR means nothing and you better be able to hit the ball close to the pin if you are going to score. Are the greens fast like at Augusta where a 3 putt actually come into play? Then I look at the weather. Wind? Wet? Certain guys simply play better in the wind. If it is going to be wet the greens will be soft so I want to play a great ball striker and wedge players that has a chance to stick it tight to the pin. 

Once I figure out what I think it will take to play well at that particular course then I start to find golfers that fit this profile. I look at each match up and try to decide which guy can do those things better. I put a numerical value to each golfer. If the difference between the 2 golfers in the match up is large enough in my mind (meaning I think 1 golfers does those things far better than the other) than I add that to a potential list of plays. I then take my list of potential plays and look at their odds. Obviously there are some match ups that have odds of -190 because it is D. Johnson vs Aaron Baddeley. Clearly D. Johnson would be a better play regardless of the course they are playing. I typically have maybe 5-8 that I throw out because they are so obvious mismatches and I can't consistently make plays with those kind of odds. After narrowing down my list I usually get down to about 4-8 plays per round and for the whole tournament. 

I have been looking into and tracking ALL of the plays that are on my original list to see how I would fair if I were to play them all. I just started tracking that this week and will continue to do so for about 10 full tournaments to see if there is any value in playing all of them regardless of how high the odds are. After the first 2 rounds of this tournament my original list would have gone 20-6-5 (+11.8 units). Now I know that 1 loss in a match up with -200 odds would kill the profit so I am cautiously optimistic with this, hence why I want to track it for a full 10 tournaments to see if this holds up or proves to be to volatile.  

If you have any questions just let me know, would be happy to discuss anything in more detail if you would like. Also, if you like any of the picks let me know. If you disagree with one of the picks let me know what too, but please tell me why you don't like it other than just saying "that pick sucks."

Best of luck in your parlays, hoping that you hit it big!