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Line just dropped from -160 to -122. I'll take a bite at that price. Good luck to everyone today |
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Thomas eagle, birdie finish
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msparxs | 5 |
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Really lucky to go 1-1-1 yesterday. Berger got blown away by a big round by Noren and puts in jeopardy my full tournament bet. Fingers crossed for today.
4th round plays I like Thomas -122 ov Steele LARGE - Love this play...better golfer and I am counting on Steele's history of struggles in the final round. Thomas almost 2 full shots better than Steele in 4th scoring average the last two years. Thomas 68.75 2017 70.43 2016 Steele 70.37 2017 72.56 2016 Kuchar ov Noren - Faded Noren the whole tournament...why stop now. Austin Cook ov Chris Kirk - Never liked Kirk - 71.29 round 4 average in 2017. Like the kid Cook. Good luck to everyone today. |
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Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:
C Smith -117 ov Hadwin I chanced Cammy +155 over Justin Thomas "for sh!ts & giggles". naturally Cammy "blows up" and Thomas is in the tourney LEAD The Berger play is really early, but looking like a quick 0-2. Bradley just can't putt. Smith starting +4 thru 4 is tough to come back from. |
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A few plays I like Bradley -114 ov Molinari - I like the way Bradley is playing. Not much course history for Molinari...One round of 64 and the rest 70, 71, 72, 70, 69. Berger -117 ov Noren - Better player with more (better) course history. Still fading Noren after last week. C Smith -117 ov Hadwin - Just a regression to the mean play against Hadwin after the big round yesterday. Good luck to everyone with their plays |
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Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:
Good call on Berger Sparks.Licking my wounds over here about losing Matsuyama ov Spieth. I’m still trying to hold it together... That's a bruatal loss. How many cuts does Spieth miss...? Right call, wrong result. |
alangrrbs | 28 |
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Anybody hear why? |
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Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:
Second RoundPlaying Thomas ov Spieth. Watching Spieth yesterday, his putting is still all out of whack. Thomas had an incredible round going til he messed it up on the par 3. More of a fade on Spieth til he figures out his putting woes, but I expect Thomas to come out strong...and getting +100 is really good. I really like the Thomas play. I thought the same thing after they interviewed him at the end of the round. He seemed to take in it in stride and I think he comes strong today. Heavy juice, but the two 2nd round plays I love are Leishman ov Stricker and Berger ov Watney. I had them both yesterday...Stricker went -4 in the last 6 holes, including an 18 footer and a 27 footer from the fairway. Somehow Watney came back to tie Berger after being down 3 late. I don't think either happens again today. |
alangrrbs | 28 |
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I really like your plays on Moore and Stuard. If Bookmaker had the Stuard matchup, I would tail. I like the Matsuyama play as well but I'm not brave enough to bet against Spieth...I think the putter could get hot at any time.
I am playing against Noren this week. Taking W Simpson -137 and Berger -101. Both have a decent track record at the course and I think Noren will be crushed after the play off loss last week.
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alangrrbs | 28 |
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Adding
Rickie Fowler -0.5 -130 (Rickie Fowler vrs Si Woo Kim) Bernd Wiesberger -0.5 -120 (Xander Schauffele vrs Bernd Wiesberger)
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msparxs | 11 |
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2-2-1 yesterday
Final round plays.
Too much juice for a few plays I like...Fowler ov Kim, Weisberger ov Schauffele and Matsuyama ov Holmes but I think there is some vale in the plays below. Matthew Fitzpatrick -130 (Matthew Fitzpatrick vrs David Lingmerth) - Lingmerth's final round scoring avg almost 2 shots higher than Fitz (given a small sample size). Marc Leishman +101 (Marc Leishman vrs Paul Casey) - I don't Casey's head will be in the final round after falling out of contention. Eddie Pepperell +0.5 -125 (Trey Mullinax vrs Eddie Pepperell) - I think the Euro players will deal better with the wind. I'll take the half shot for a modest price. Louis Oosthuizen +104 (Louis Oosthuizen vrs Sergio Garcia) - I like Louie in the final round of majors. Easy choice at plus money. Bill Haas -137 (Charley Hoffman vrs Bill Haas) - Better final round scoring average by a good margin and better player by a slight margin. Good luck to everyone . Maybe with the wind today we'll see a real US open round. |
msparxs | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat: pretty good tourney match plays @ 2-1-1 Scott ov Matsuyama (-120...now up to -135) [+3 CUT/-7/-5] Rahm ov McIlroy (+160) [+5 CUT/+5 CUT] Dufner ov Berger (-120) [+7 CUT/+9 CUT] Rose ov Stenson (-115) [+2 CUT/+3 CUT] AND did NOT have to "sweat' the weekend Thanks. I had high hopes for a Rahm win at plus money. Rory had no way to make the cut with 9 holes left in the 2nd and yet made birdie after birdie to get back to 5 over. That was a tough one. I almost played Dufner ov Kuchar instead of Berger...dodged a bullet there. Still can't believe how bad Dufner looked.
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3rd round match-up plays
Tommy Fleetwood -113 (Tommy Fleetwood vrs Brian Harman) Rickie Fowler -116 (Hideki Matsuyama vrs Rickie Fowler) Brandt Snedeker -122 (Brandt Snedeker vrs Jamie Lovemark) Martin Kaymer -131 (Martin Kaymer vrs Adam Hadwin) Thomas Aiken -133 (Jonathan Randolph vrs Thomas Aiken) GL to everyone
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msparxs | 11 |
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Thank you. Good luck to you as well.
The afternoon was better than the morning. My first round plays were all rough, but the tournament plays somehow found their way to be exciting. Tomorrow should be very interesting. Scott's 1 foot miss was possibly the angriest I have ever been after a short putt and then he eagles 18 like he is a putting god. After Rahm shot a +4 I thought I would need Rory to WD but then he shoots a 6 over. Crazy game...you never know.
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msparxs | 11 |
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Thanks.
It's a long tournament but this is about the worst start I could have imagined. Rahm playing terrible, Dufner can't a make a birdie, Matsuyama holing out from over 100 yards and now Cauley pouring in birdies on the back 9...awesome.
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msparxs | 11 |
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Been lurking for a while. Really enjoy the opinions and picks, so I thought I would contribute.
Full Tournament Scott ov Matsuyama (-120...now up to -135) - Agree with most of what I have read here. Scott playing better of late and just more consistent in general. Rahm ov McIlroy (+160) - Pretty much a pure value play. +160 seems off given the way Rahm has played and the fact that Rory may not be 100%. Dufner ov Berger (-120) - Same idea as the Scott play. Dufner in better form of late despite the Berger win and more consistent on late and at the Open. Rose ov Stenson (-115) - This is more of a Rose pick versus a Stenson fade. Both generally very consistent and good at he Open, I just think this sets up as a better course for Rose. 1st round plays I play these straight and in a 2 team RR parlay format. My formula is typically the better overall player coupled with the better scoring average in the particular round. Oosthuizen ov Stricker (-135) Dufner ov Cauley (-142) Steele ov McGirt (-150) Good luck to anyone that tails. Looking forward to 4 days of good golf (if the USGA manages to not screw things up) |
msparxs | 11 |
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Well when you're in a slump you're in a slump. Finished yesterday 0-2 for -2 units. Two really tough losses yesterday, but that's the way it goes during a long season. KC CWS LAD - No Play We'll look to get back on track with 6 plays tonight (6/19). All plays 1 unit. Phi +104 Pit +125 TB +127 Oak -109 CWS -135 Hou +101 Hope everyone has had better luck in the last couple days than I have. BOL to all your plays! -M&S |
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LAD game already rained out so only 2 plays tonight
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Really really tough night last night. Oakland, Colorado and SF were brutal losses. Thank god KC held on to avoid a disastrous night. When the dust settled, we went 2.23 units the wrong way. Phi -102 KC -130 Col +134 Pit +111 Oak +106 SF -123 3 plays on tap tonight (6/18). All plays 1 unit. LAD ev KC +112 CWS +111 BOL to everyone's plays! Go beat the books! -M&S |
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Rough day on the diamond yesterday. Still not sure how the Nats scored 0 runs in that game...amazing.
First time we have submitted an 0-for all season. We moved 2.28 units in the wrong direction.
Ari -110 Wash -118 Looking to get things moving back in the right direction tonight (6/17). All plays 1 unit. Phi -102 KC -130 Col +134 Pit +111 Oak +106 SF -123 BOL to everyone's plays! Go beat the books! -M&S |
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