NutinButtLove

Definitely. Especially the way Winston plays, a 4th down play he might screw up, let him know he has 2 downs and he's looser and looks downfield. They weren't gonna try and run for 2 yards either even tho most teams would in the snow.

The angle is bad weather can be a great equalizer. Everyone is slowed down by it and being faster or stronger doesn't make you immune to slipping in it at the wrong time. It's hard to predict who will handle the conditions better but in general it will blunt the faster team's speed and just level things out so I always lean to the dog. Once had a favorite in a horse race and the heavens opened before the race. Several horses were scratched including a few dangers but mine was still in and I thought he would walk it, he got chinned by a horse he had beaten by 16 lengths in a prior race because they were both just crawling through the heavy ground at the end.

I'm happy for Jameis I thought that fumble and pick had doomed his team as was usually the story with him. He tried to give the Steelers a gift and they blew it.

Maybe he thought they could kick it from there? But they weren't going to so at that point I'm making them have to convert on one down. Think long, think wrong I guess

Some of my fondest childhood memories are playing football in the snow with my friends in a field right beside where I lived (that probably has a bunch of apartments on it now). I was never any good, but I enjoyed it. The games frequently devolved into a marathon of 'kill the man with the ball' which was only slightly less violent than it sounds, but the snow made it hurt less.

Or maybe it's just 38-10 is a 4 TD lead

What were the Ravens gonna do with 30 seconds left in the first half just kneel it out take the lead to the locker room.

That bonehead move was the difference in the game.

BYU played bad, had uncharacteristic turnovers (which was why they lost to kansas last year too) and still had every chance to win even after that bonehead special teams play that was a gift TD when they should have had the ball and a 3 pt lead instead bang 4 pts down. But still they got a takeaway and a first and 10 across midfield and then they got a possession where they got down into the red zone. You have to find the end zone on one of those possessions. Terrible playcalling not one shot to the end zone why are you trying to run twice in a row just try and throw a TD pass. Then they false start on the 4th down too and the catch would have been far enough for a first if they didn't do that.

Total choke job and they are fraudulent AF

It will likely be fixed soon I wouldn't worry. You're hardly the only one who had that bet and is complaining they will realize the error.

Lions -3.5 (now 4.5)

Looking at the line i thought it was reading that the Texans were the play, especially with Detroit off a big road win in Lambeau now on the road again where Houston hasn't lost. And it's in the back of my mind how many dogs have covered today (books got killed in October with lots of favorites covering and are likely to get some back this month)

But Detroit simply has that Super Bowl contender look about them and those teams are usually good ATS. I don't think Houston has actually progressed like expected from last year to this and they have major injuries.

Lions have 3 straight AFC South teams and Chicago on Thanksgiving, they can make a great push for that top seed if they keep winning and if the Texans stop their current streak, I'll live with it because they have the Colts and Jags after and can get it back then, and I think they'll finally win on Thanksgiving too because the Bears are in disarray

They're not healthy at all Collins is not coming back Will Anderson is inactive as are a couple other guys

Forgot to add the Bears -6.5

Ne another team on the fade list and the Bears back home after two bad losses, the hail mary and the blowout to Arizona (had the Cards there) now they get a team that is just in their rebuilding from the basement era. The Bears despite their talent can't beat good teams but can beat bad ones.

That's an interesting angle. Shame that you have to use the Jags to take advantage of it because they're just not a good team right now. 

In honor of Stu Ungar the legendary poker pro who apparently was awful at sports betting because he needed so much action it wouldn't be unusual for him to play every game on the board (even in college) I'm going to play a unit on every game. Hopefully I won't lose millions and turn into a crackhead like he did. Highly recommend his biography One Of a Kind, fascinating stuff.

Giants -6.5 to start the smorgasbord in London. Whenever a bad team wins a game I like to fade them the next game. It's a very basic but profitable strategy in the NFL and the Gmen did show a bit of a pulse last week. They have a good pass rush and there was a rumor of Bryce Young getting traded to NY maybe Danny Dimes will have a point to prove.

Colts +4

I don't really like the Colts as a team, faded them last week. Their defense is crap and the offense is inconsistent but I just like this schedule spot Buffalo just played Miami and has KC on deck. Line looks pretty trappy.

Saints +3.5

Another team I am not high on this season but the old 'coach just got fired' angle is another tried and true beauty. It works often enough that you just have to go with it and live with the times it doesn't (Jets failed in this spot this year). Hate to fade Kirko Chains in the form he has been in this year but fingers crossed a division rival is just what the dr ordered for a Saints team that needs something to feel good about.

Chiefs -7.5

While it won't be a game of the month type play as I had on Baltimore last week, I have similar feelings as regards stadiums ie Arrowhead is not a place rookies go into and have much success and Bo Nix now hitting a much harder part of the schedule than what he faced earlier when he was having pretty good success. Let's see how he does vs KCs defense. Seems like the Chiefs never get to play a Sunday 1pm game. This game isn't gonna be their first loss, not to a rookie at home on a team they kind of own.

49ers -6.5

Bucs season went down the tubes with those WR injuries and now it's a short week off an OT loss that would have given them a huge lift - but now they're deflated and facing a team with more rest who can't take anything for granted with their record they need wins to stay competitive in their division where everyone is around .500

Steelers +2.5

Bad schedule spot for the Commanders who had the Giants last week and have Philly on Thursday night. The Steelers seem like the type of team that could give them trouble with their physicality, and Washington leading rusher Brian Robinson is hurt. I always fade teams that play an out of conference sunday game before a TNF division game, it's worked pretty well and i definitely recommend checking who is playing on TNF to at least avoid playing on any teams in that spot if not betting against them. Hate to go against such a hot team all the same.

Vikings -6.5

Jags are a team firmly on the fade list and while Philly messed up the cover last week I think the Vikings have gotten back on track and will beat them handily enough. The Jags schedule after London is just really tough for a team struggling so bad, and I intend to fade them every week til Dougie gets fired which he will eventually this year.

if i have Burrow, Chase etc vs the 32nd ranked pass defense I'm going for 2 there every time.

In OT if I lose the toss and get scored on, it's probably toast. If no one scores a TD they have Tucker to finish it from almost anywhere the other side of the 50.

On the road in a game featuring a lack of stops you definitely go for 2 there

Another post another cash woohoo  i must be living right 

Over 52.5

53 is a whole lotta points for an AFC North matchup but Baltimore's efficient offense with the highest yards per completion in the league, top running offense and top red zone offense, combined with their atrocious pass defense facing Joe Burrow and Jamarr Chase on the other side, who happen to be 3rd in Red Zone TD % not far behind Baltimore, seems a good recipe for points.

Neither team is great at getting off the field on 3rd down defense ranking 30th and 26th in 3rd down conversion % allowed.

Baltimore gets a lot of penalties and Cincinnati has the least which is interesting if you're looking for an edge on the side. Though I still would lean to the top red zone team who has played a few short weeks already and won't want to lose another division game, in a division they seem to be the best in, powered by a strong run game.

It was 41-38 last time these teams met, let's hope we get another track meet.

Trump is either way ahead or getting all the action with bettors as he has shortened considerably in price, currently 2/7

Kamala was 6 to 5, 11/8 this morning and is now 5/2

It will get closer but it's looking like 4 more years of orange

Central Michigan+14.5

Miami Oh -11.5

Not gonna go against the Chiefs coming home after two weeks on the road vs a team that lost all their WRs - they're the reason for Baker's resurgence. The Chiefs defense is just too good to be able to keep pace without those guys. Bucs season is in major trouble, if they manage to make the playoffs again it's because the division is trash. KC does have Denver next week but I don't think that's gonna stop them rolling tonight, remember they played Baltimore very close week 1 who despite the final score being a little bit closer than it should have been, pretty much blew out TB on MNF 2 weeks ago in Tampa. Now it's in Arrowhead. Forget about it... Another Swifty slaughter. Why did they put the same team on MNF 2 of 3 weeks that makes no sense

KC -8.5

You're off your head man. Hopkins is washed and certainly isn't gonna have his breakout game be when he is only in the door.