NutinButtLove

I see so many people whining on this site guess what the games are not any different than they used to be. What are you talking about. OKC killed teams by big margins all year, Memphis is the lowest seed they barely got in.

It's just loser talk. Find another hobby if this makes you so pissy. If you were winning you wouldn't be whining!

No, it wasn't the right thing because you lost 1000 bucks.

Id say 90% of people who live bet would do better overall if the option (including cashouts) was removed from your apps.

6 points is nothing in any basketball game. The bookies have a sizable headstart on the broadcast you see also. 

@nattyorange

 If the ball bounces back out like that, it's a missed shot if you don't get an offensive board and it goes out of bounds its a turnover

It rarely happens it's just one of those things

Memphis -6.5

I expect the Grizzlies to hold onto the 8th seed here and put the final curtain down on a miserable season for the Mavs. Dallas probably has more motivation (considering whoever wins just gets buzzsawed by OKC and they know it) to still want to make the playoffs in a way because of the Luka trade, and they probably can play better away without all the negative vibes from the home crowd, so it didn't surprise me at all they beat the Kings. Light the Beam was cool but the team overall not exactly playoff pedigree they have sucked in crunch time more often than not, historically

But Memphis is objectively a better team, with not only a winning home record but a winning road record - the mark of a good team some may say. While Dallas has a losing home and road record. I don't think motivation or spite can win this one.

Dallas allows less points but actually allows a higher shooting percentage. Memphis is 11th in made 3s this season vs 26th for Dallas and is 1st in free throws made Dallas also isn't bad at 6th. Blocks per game Dallas is also 6th with Davis there now they have gotten good at inside defense but Memphis actually is 3rd so they really are not just a one man show with Morant any more they have a good overall team. Coming back home etting the guys on back to back road games who had the soul of the team ripped out by an idiot GM is a great spot to advance compared to trying to beat the Warriors on the road which they made a decent effort at doing.

The other game I don't really have a pick on, slight preference to Miami same as the oddsmakers have it but could go either way the Heat are much better defensively and with their coaching also an advantage, they could play themselves in. I could see Hawks winning tho if Trae getting tossed sparks him to have a monster game.

I had a sweet Gators sweatshirt when I was a kid, before I even knew what gambling was. That somewhat influenced my pick I admit 

Because as i said in my writeup, their bigs dont have any finishing touch. Their bigs can't shoot either. And Tugler was out, Francis had 4.

But it was a low percentage shot i agree because uh, well, what's that about you miss 100% of the shots you don't take?

if the refs wanted Florida to win so bad how come at the start of the 2nd half they called like 4 fouls on florida before they called even one on Houston when the Gators were already down 6 at the half?

I wonder if Aberdeen had hit both FTs and they were up 3 instead of 2 would Golden have told them to just foul and prevent a game tying 3. I probably would have done that Houston isn't a great FT shooting team

I dunno which I was more glad to see an Alien sighting or a late 2nd half Clayton sighting

Well Houston was winning because they weren't calling all the bully ball fouls you can't let them make contact all game it was like watching football they were pushing them on every play

What I say, if it's close at the end Florida pulls these types of games out it's what they do.

And that's why I always bet against a team making history especially if they've never won a title. Houston should never have lost that game with that defense and a 14 point lead and Clayton doing absolutely nothing.

But he helped out when it mattered and I still think he has the clutch gene. If Flagg is 1 he has to be the 2nd pick or i dunno.

Anyway I thoroughly enjoyed that game. I can't believe Houston didn't even get a shot off on the last possession. 

Never doubted 

What's this a Walter Clayton sighting finally

They're not coming back in this one. Not on this defense. And definitely not with the way Clayton has been playing.

I was thinking if this game was to be a blowout it would more likely be Houston to do it to Florida if they fell behind again. You don't want to be stuck double digits on this team.

@nmgolf57

They didn't win those games through luck. They fought hard to win those close games, hit tough shots, grabbed crucial rebounds and played really well as a team in crunch time. They were resilient, not lucky. It's not like they won on buzzer beaters.

@gambling-devil

 Oh damn why didn't I think to look at that part! Very good point. 

Thanks for that tip. If I'm ever wondering what color the sky is, I'll be sure to contact you.

Dunno how you can say it never turns out well when someone makes a 'covers bloodbath' post every other day on here, it's not exactly original and usually based on someone just reading the last 3 hours of posts a full 20 hours before the game

I think it will be hard for Houston to slow down Florida the same way they did Duke and Tennessee. Gators 4th ranked offense is very efficient and their lineup is stacked with offensive talent. Of course, as they day defense wins championships and Houston is number one and Gators way down at 87, but scoring droughts in any 20 minute half are how many teams lose.

It's not a big bet for me, normal 1 unit play, because I originally planned to take the winner of Houston vs Duke. My reasoning there was that both those teams crushed SEC teams the game before, and the two teams they beat were the same ones Florida beat when they won the SEC title game, leading me to think maybe the conference form isn't that strong. But they won that final by a large margin and beat a number 1 Auburn team twice, once in Auburn when it had a 14 game win streak snapped and last time when it looked like revenge might be on the menu. Still, that was another SEC team and I give Houston major credit for beating what most people thought was the best team in the country with the best player.

Tho I actually think Clayton is the best myself. Let's see can they eliminate another team with a talent like that, plus a huge frontcourt and 2 other very good guards.

The other 2 thing ls I say is in Houston's favor is the coaching angle and fouls. Something tells me 'they' would much prefer to have a black coach who struggled in the tournament and has a very 'blue collar' type grinding team to win it over the skinny wormy looking white guy who was stalking college girls on campus.

The optics of that are much much better. Especially since Houston has never won a title.

And Florida has been getting called for a lot of fouls. Last game it looked like the refs really favored Auburn at critical points in the game, every time the Gators went up a bucket it was a foul, they had that horrible missed call led to a foul that shouldn't have been even called, then they tried to upgrade it to a flagrant, then when Florida challenged, you can't even challenge a non call so it cost them a timeout to boot.

So that is something that should really worry Florida backers..the media will be creaming it if a black coach with an all black team wins his and its first title ever. Not so much if Golden the creep does it.

It's possible Houston could ride their momentum from the comeback on Saturday to today, but I think they got lucky to complete that comeback in many ways. Duke going cold, Cryer hitting 3s to help out while they missed layups in that span, the over and back call, the missed turnaround by Flagg. I usually fade teams that complete big comebacks next time out. If they were playing a team that I thought they could easily slow down then that would be different but Florida is not that team, and if the Cougars get into a tight one at the end like they did vs Duke, well, they'll have to be even better than they were that night to put away Florida because Florida has been there and done that 3 of the last 4 games.

I also tend to bet against teams making history. If it's finally Houston and Sampson's year, I'll take my hat off to them.

Florida Gators ML

There really are very few weaknesses on either team, I hate to go against either one. I said originally I would likely take the winner of Duke vs Houston and usually when I go against my first instinct I lose, but I have gone over the game a little more and like the oddsmakers, I have to give marginal preference to Florida.

The main reasons are:

I feel like Houston was helped greatly in the last 2 games by their opponents shooting going cold. Vols couldn't hit a shot especially in the first half, while Duke had a very long drought where they only got points from the line in the 2nd in the semifinal game.

Of course Houston's #1 defense had something to do with that but watching the game it was just more that guys missed shots they usually make. In the first half when Duke had a healthy lead because they were well able to get open looks. 2nd half they just didn't hit them. Proctor did nothing and couldn't hit FTs either, Flagg missed that big shot.

But during that cold stretch for Houston the Cougars made really hard work of getting over the hump to even tie the game. They missed a lot of layups and while they may have big strong guys up front that can challenge your shots and grab boards, they seem to lack that graceful finishing touch when they get to the rim. It was Cryers 3s that kept them in it while they missed bunny shots after stops at the other end.

And you know who does have that excellent touch down low - Walter Clayton Jr. He is a big reason I think Florida wins tonight, the guy has proven he has that clutch gene and that has spread to the whole team as they have escaped games they fell behind in vs Auburn, Texas Tech and Uconn during the tournament.

When the chips were down late in the 2nd half Saturday night, Duke choked. Florida has thrived in those spots, hitting big shots and grabbing rebounds. Clayton has become just the 2nd player ever to have 30 points in the elite 8 and final 4 round. The last player to do it - a guy called Larry Bird.

That 2nd half collapse was uncharacteristic of Duke as they are top2 in 2nd half scoring margin. Top 2 with guess which team - Florida.

Another thing which doomed the Blue Devils was 2nd chance points, Cougars had 19 and Duke had 12. But Florida has the 4th most offensive rebounds this season so should be able to counter that.