NutinButtLove

Seahawks+3

Bills -14

Phins 9ers Under

Raiders ML

After a great start they do everything possible to screw up, missed PAT and now going for it on your own 34 and getting stuffed.

Adding Extra 2 units to the Falcons play

Probably will go hard for the switch to the black QB (seen it fire up a team before) plus Giants are like the worst team.

Fat and happy off a day just betting favorites thinking I was crazy and it turned into a 5-0 early Christmas gift. So I can afford another smorgasbord. First two times i did this play every game thing i lost small the first time won small the 2nd. I only really do it when i think the board is muck anyway.

Starting off

Bears +7. I usually back a good team off a loss but Detroit is depleted on defense and the Bears backdoor last time is on my mind, they haven't been at home in a while and their 4 wins were all at home their losses at home 2 of 3 were by less than 3 pts.

Falcons -9.5 Rookie QB laying basically DDs? On a team that isn't playing well at all? Well, hell, it is the Giants who are probably the worst team in football. I'll take the bait not because i love this spot it's just in December you are well served to just autofade the teams that had a tanking season. There's only so many chances left to do it.

Jets +3.5

A huge money burner team but they did come back last week and win and cover I think this will be close enough down to the wire job. Hopefully it's cold AF in Jersey today.

Bengals -9.5 DTR might be just the cure for this Bengals defense, getting away with that win in Dallas might have sparked a typical late push for Burrows team and the Browns are another team in the tank to auto fade

Phi/Was Under

These two defenses have been playing well lately and I think it's gonna be a tight one almost playoff game atmosphere.

Carolina/Arizona Over

I can't put my finger on why, but I see this being high scoring. Just a hunch really.

Colts -3.5

Indy only home losses were vs the Lions, Bills and Texans. The Titans are not one of those good teams it's a bad team they can beat and they are actually still in with a chance at the wildcard being tied with the Bengals and Miami at 6-8

if you can't see why Philly would be favored by 4 points, can i be your bookie please?

Maybe do something a child could figure out and look at how they both played vs the Ravens and then see if you get it

Having said that the Skins have always been a tricky out for the Birds, Mc Laurin always kills them.

I like the Under here. Both teams defensive numbers lately are stout and should be fierce

@slikstiks99

 Why? It's not the Quicklane Bowl it's a playoff game. NFL teams play them at home.

Otherwise why bother getting a high seed?

The same thing happened when they added extra NFL wild card games the teams that wouldn't have made it in under the previous format got smoked.

Or maybe he just hasn't seen a good defense ever in his first season starting. Clemson was the best one he faced and they give up over 400 in most of their conference games they're not actually even good. A top big10 defense on the road in CFP in December is a totally different animal

Watt is playing but i do like the pick

Did you watch the game. They dominated and were up 20 points at the half. They lost on a horrible coaching decision and fluke pick when they shouldn't even have been throwing at all it was 1st and 10 in the red zone 10 pt lead with like 8 mins left. QB throws it right towards an oncoming pass rusher it hits him goes up in the air and he catches it. All they had to do was run it and kick the bet would have been safe.

It was a terrible beat. Don't be jealous just because you're an illiterate. Where's your pick btw?

Vaughn and Perry are active for Jax St. Just because a guy is in the portal doesn't mean he won't play

1-0 in bowls so far with UNLV my only pick. I'm not as big a fan of betting on bowls any more with all the transfer BS.

 Ohio -5.5 3 units

Also, I would say you have to be wary not to overreact to opt out reports. Last year all of Ohio's best players including the QB opted out and they still won, scoring 41 points.

This year they have everyone playing, so they should play even better.

Jax St has impressed me with their offense and I like Tyler Huff and Tre Stewart a lot. But, he has never played in a bowl. Jax St first FBS level bowl was last year (Huff wasn't there) and they won in OT.

I don't think this newly promoted team is gonna win their first 2 bowls, especially now playing a team that, despite playing in the MAC, has a nice bowl bowl pedigree AND, most importantly, a much, much better run defense than any team the Cocks would have faced in C USA. Even Sam houston who had the best rush d in the conf was not as good and most of their opponents are nowhere near Ohio in rush defense - and Jax St running is their bread and butter.

This is a bad matchup for them in that regard, this defense is nothing like WKY who the Cocks faced the last 2 times. Not only that but in terms of opt outs 2 of their top tacklers might be out.

Some teams go decades before winning a bowl, if a team that is sort of one dimensional is gonna win 2 in a row first 2 tries, vs a team that stuffs what they do best and has been outscoring teams by a wide margin lately, including beating an Eastern Michigan team easily that Jax St lost to, and a Miami Ohio team that had a much better defense, I'll be sort of surprised.

I always like to fade teams that are one dimensional in bowls anyway. Balanced teams tend to fare better, as running teams find it tough to make comebacks and pass heavy teams find it tough to work the clock and finish games off.

OKC -5 for 5 units

I wanted to back OKC in this game regardless, though I was a little surprised the veteran and NBA/Olympic champion players on Milwaukee not only didn't make them favorite (which I didn't expect either tbh) but made them a whopping 5 pt dog. With Giannis, and Dame Time, the wily vet Holliday?

But I'm basing this pick off a new stat based formula I'm using for 'big' games especially. I came upon this playing a different sport (college football) where i tried to pick the winners if the conf title games just based on defense (bc Defense wins championships, right?) it didn't work well at all, but i went back and found one that did work almost 100% and the one loss was by a last second FG. Unfortunately i had to figure it out after the scores were final. And it's actually so obvious but hey, I'll know it for NCAA title games next year, and I think it will be useful in bowls too (but not AS useful, because bowls are joke - even worse joke now with not only coaches but players moving all over the place. Title games that doesn't happen as much, plus there's less time off and this angle is some what momentum recent resutls based)

Anyway, without revealing the exact nature of this capping tool I am using going forward the play on it tonight is actually quite strong and there's no need to be uncomfortable laying a full 2.5 baskets tonight - hence the 5 uni5 play.

I know some guys will try and cap this based on who has young guys that need the cash, etc. that's not how i am looking at it, and tbh that's probably even enough anyway.

Even still... I like this motivation angle. They did go POOF in the playoffs after looking very good all year. And they have since also looked very good. Rockets have turned things around and been playing well under the sexual harrasser/adulterer.

Of course the flip side is Bucks have the guys with the championship finals pedigree (NBA and Olympics) and one of the best clutch guys in Dame Time. Which is why i thought the line would be more like 3 at the most not 5 what it is now.

It will be down to 3s. If Lou Dort hits his jumpers like he did the other night the Thunder are very good. I worry the refs will favor Giannis a lot over Hartenstien and they don't have Holmgren.

But I think the Thunder have looked very good - and I expect them to win this one.

Panthers Moneyline

They go from playing the best NFC teams to one of the worst, and Dallas lost a key defender last week. I think it's time the Panthers not just 'play better' but whoop somebody and if I'm Dallas that loss last week was the nail in the coffin and I'm like forget this season.

Jets -3

Jags are an auto fade every week even with the hapless Jets. Worth noting that Mac Jones is 5-0 vs NYJ tho

Bengals -5.5

I almost didn't put this in as the former OC of the Bengals on the other sideline is a negative especially since they have a good defense and the Bengals dont. But the Jags and Titans both looked so bad last week i have to fade both and Im especially happy to do it with a team that is lethal in the red zone and making their classic late season push.

Ravens -16.5

All I do in December is fade teams having disaster seasons (lots of losses and injuries) and IDC if I have to lay 16.5 points with the worst passing defense to do it.

Commanders -7.5 3 units (top play)

Another team having a disaster season is the Saints despite playing better of late it was vs weak teams. Daniels old stomping grounds I like the Skins to romp the Saints as a warmup to the Eagles game not lose the week before like they usually do.

I can't find any dogs i like but whatever.

You'd be better off fading the bottom 5 IMO that's the worst ATS teams the last 5 years the worst offenses 

I've usually found once i bet based on some trend then the law of averages strikes and the 11-0 trend goes 11-1.

Saints have been on my fade list for a while and they barely beat beat the awful Giants and haven't beat anyone good in their wins since the coach got canned. Carr is down and Hill their goal line gadget guy is down too. 

Skins are rested and the NFC Wildcard race is pretty hot. Can't afford to relax here.

And they won't. Daniels used to play in Louisiana and Lattimore is going back now after a trade. I think the Skins go up and down the field with ease vs that sieve of a defense.

Disclosure is coming soon. They're just feeling us out to see what we can handle.

This Philadelphia team is one of the best they have ever had.. they're not gonna be the ones to lose to Pittsburgh. The AFC North teams they beat aren't that good, the one good one they just have the Ravens number. Bengals and Ravens neither has the ability to stop anyone when it matters most and the Eagles have shown they usually can other than that one time with Kirko Chains.

Eagles and Lions are gonna keep winning and keep it neck and neck for that one seed.

Always a bit wary of betting a team that has a TNF division game on deck, tho i actually think the Chargers will beat TB today.

Maybe Kerr should go and coach elementary school ball. Not only are the refs better but they don't have a shot clock! That's why they lost they must have had at least 7 violations which is insane for a game and at the end they basically were doing it on purpose.

I hate when teams try to 'run clock' at the end of games. It's a terrible strategy. Run the offense!