NutinButtLove

Whew. Buying it down saved me. I usually do it just cuz you can't cover past 5.5 in an OT game, even though playoffs OT is different and you can. All these missed PATs you can't take it for granted a TD 7 is any more esp in the snow 

Ravens/Bills over 51.5

The Ravens are excellent in the red zone this year now they can hand off to Henry down there and their pass defense while improving down the stretch, I just think Buffalo can move the ball on them plus they get so many penalties that extend drives.

I lean to the Ravens as a side because I think Henry deserves a chance at the SB, but Buffalo boasts home field and the top turnover margin in the NFL. But the Ravens dominated them before and I think that counts for a lot in these playoff rematches. It will definitely be closer this time, and the Bills beat the Ravens while the Ravens usually come up short vs them and did so in week 1, but it was a toenail between them then and I think they get another crack.

Eagles -5.5 4 units 

I did buy a half point but I'm confident in this selection. The Eagles at home are going to be a totally different animal than Minnesota in Arizona. The last time they played Saquon set a franchise rushing record.

If they try to focus on stopping him, the Eagles unlike the Vikings have more than one great pass catching option.

And unlike the Vikings who had the 28th ranked pass d, the Eagles have the best pass defense in the NFL. Guys were so open last week it was pitch and catch for Stafford. And the Vikings never got traction, every drive was short. The Eagles are masters at extending drives between the run game and tush pushes.

The feel good story for the Rams is over. It's going to be Philly vs Washington for the SB and it's a great matchup because they give the Eagles trouble and snatched a win this season. The way the Skins are playing now I don't know could the Rams beat them, maybe if it was at home in LA that would be huge emotionally and 4th straight road game for Washington but sometimes teams can come out of nowhere and do it all on the road as dogs it has happened.

The Rams got 9 sacks last week that absolutely will not happen against the Philly offensive line plus they lead the league in rushing attempts.

I do think the line is pretty spot on that's why i bought that half point. I don't think the Rams are dead in the water but I don't think Philly got the 2 seed by accident they dominated not just the Rams but the Ravens too and most everbody they played. Unlike the Lions they aren't just a failure every year they've existed since Barry Sanders.

Capping the last game i made note the Rams have been either totally shut out or only scored a single field goal in 2 quarters 8 of their last 10 games and the one was Minnesota who they scored on a lot again last week. They are due in my mind to have a similar drought then playing vs this defense and a team that runs the ball so well, in the cold.

So i like the Under as well but I'm just taking the Birds to what they usually do and have done to the Rams already. The shoe is on the other foot this week for the Rams, fires or no fires, they dominated Minnesota this year and did so again, but this is the reverse it is a team that dominated them convincingly they have to play now, and who has a very efficient offense stocked full of weapons, to go along with the best pass defense in the league they are at least getting to the conference championship they might even get to the Super Bowl. If you look at the season as a whole there is no way you could conclude the Eagles are anything less than top 2 or 3 in the division and the Rams weren't on their level overall, decent but not great, definitely helped by the other teams in the division barely being 500 teams.

According to my sources in Philly, it's starting to snow right now. Generally the best running teams win in snow. The caveat is it blunts the speed of everyone and causes slips which can level the playing field negating the faster athletes advantages in speed and agility. But I have a feeling Saquon can run in snow. 

Omg... I bought a point i have +9.5

Holy shizzzzzzz I never thought they would do that hahaha I was just about to post i stg backdoor covers only happen when i have the fav 

You have to be kidding me 

Kick it dude

So dumb to rush the play before the 2 min of course he takes another sack

And on 3rd down too what are you doing

The new NFL no one kicks it's so stupid

Chiefs/Texans Under 43 3 units

Stroud really struggled with Spags Defense last time they played. Houston has a good defense too especially vs the pass and i could see a slow start with KC having basically 3 weeks off. Early start in Arrowhead 2 good kickers i don't think we'll get a ton of TDs this game probably some droughts or red zone misses and FG tries. Houston blocked 2 kicks, and they will try and run because their offense is much better whent they can do that but KC has a great run D. So both teams can stop the other teams strength. KC offense isn't so hot this year.

Houston +8.5 1 unit

These teams have some playoff history back when Watson was there he had a big lead on the Chiefs and then got destroyed in the 2nd half. They already played, Houston lost by 8 but only lost 2 other games by more than 8. KC only covered this number in i think 4 of their 15 wins? I could see it being tight even though Houston is much better at home than the road (ppl really underestimated that last week, they don't lose often at home and almost/should have beat the Lions that game.

Having a bye is also so huge for the Chiefs or any team, and I fully expect Houston to be one and done again in playoffs like last year but who knows with so many blowouts maybe we get a close game to start and Chiefs do another pantented comeback to win but this time it's not an absolute landslide and they win on a final drive type deal. Maybe Stroud won't be as flummoxed having seen this defense not long ago, I'm sure theyve concocted some stuff in the meantime. Note the total is the larger play this is just standard one unit like I play reg season games.

I have Lions to win the NFC. I will not be doing this 'hedge'. I'll be large on Lions Spread. 3rd straight road game for the team with the worst defense left in the playoffs vs that offense off a bye, I'll happily lay it. You don't snatch games late off the Lions which is how the Commanders win a lot of the time. Best team in the North is a lot better than the best team in the South who has the league leader in fumbles at QB and who it seems that last reg season game vs NO wasn't just a letdown bc they saw how heavily favored they were, they were fading down the stretch. Even that big win over the Chargers doesn't look that impressive now.

What I don't get is how someone could go from a cool username referencing white mamba to... well, I guess he was trying to make it sound like he was new to the site or something

100%. And anyone who doesn't understand this should actually stop gambling altogether until they do. Especially coming off a playoff round where there was only one close game I mean how much more evidence does one need that teasers in the playoffs are dumb?

And I say you contact your high school principal tell them stop letting your English teacher unleash people with retard level spelling abilities on the unwitting public.

Come on bro every phone has autocorrect on it, how are you this bad every time you post? You make Ralphie from the Simpsons look like Shakespeare.

People are smoking crack if they think going into frigid ahh Philly and facing their defense (and a RB who already set a franchise rushing record against them) is going to be anything like facing Darnold in Arizona.

Eagles defense is number 1 vs the pass. Minnesota's was 28th. The feel good story was nice but this is a different animal altogether. Stafford looked like he was playing catch with one of his fifteen kids in his own backyard last week it was comical how open guys were. Green Bay was probably a better team than the Rams are, they average 50 yards more per game overall and only 5 less per game through the air. The Packers ranked 10 spots higher in pass defense and 14 higher in rush defense and they were about the same in sacks but yeah I'm sure they'll get 9 sacks again vs probably the best Oline in the NFL and a team that leads the NFL in rush attempts about 36 a game with a mobile QB who has more than one good WR to throw to.

In fairness the whole team isn't playing well. You don't get sacked 6 times in one half if the O line is playing well and guys are getting open. Jones dropped that screen pass on 2nd down and that led to them going for it on 4th down and Jefferson fkin fell down. Which led to the 6th sack and the 3rd TD.

The coach should not have went for it only down 2 scores now the game is totally out of reach.

The emotional side of this game I totally underestimated. You can sense the announcers and crowd basically everybody wants LA to win, Joe Buck is practically creaming his pants every time the Rams make a play.

They absolutely couldn't wait to change that call and make up some BS to say it wasn't grounding. Narrative seems obvious but if the Vikings can weather the storm 1st half keep it close they can still win this.

@magiccarpetride

 If you think the 7.5 is so easy to cover why are you teasing it? Have you actually counted how many of KC's 15 wins were by 8 points or more?

It's your money now, not house money. but if you want to try to make a killing doing more teasers go right ahead. I mean stranger things have happened than the Lions losing a game or KC being knocked off with their mediocre offense and Mahomes 11 picks.

I don't think it likely but i always found whenever i won a good amount of cash, if aI get carried away with the idea of making a bunch more with 'house money' bets then suddenly the house gets their money back and I realize I could have exchanged that money for goods and services so it was actually mine. In fact that's why I think calling it 'house money' is bad luck. You are literally saying you won't be happy until you have given it all back to the house.

I think you overestimate how many people play teasers. I never do but that's because i live in Europe and they aren't a thing here, but even if I would I wouldn't anyway. They're sucker bets that's why the bookies offer them.

I often find those same suckers are convinced that games are fixed when they lose their teasers and parlays and player props and all the other things poor squares bet on

I do. I wrote a shedload about why if you're interested. Should be a tight one though.